The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

[Aughex]

I haven't twisted any numbers, in fact I haven't used any. I simply gave you the trainer's thoughts on the morning of the race. He looked pretty happy that Hurricane Fly was in the best form of his life.. You're the one that used a rating of AF going into the race 157 which its around the same all champions have come into it at their first attempt, bar Faugheen who came the highest rated in history 1st time around on 169 mark, given a 173 performance figure for his demolition job with no prep and jump mistakes that would've taken out of contention any other horse.

Here, relax and take a look at a performance that you're fourth great-grandchild will still talk about:

[Tanlic]

No different than you thinking the horse you've backed is a good thing...it's called being biased

[Tanlic]

Do you actually agree with the 169 the handicapper gave Faugheen?

If so tell me how you get to that figure? I get a 161 on my abacus

[Grasshopper]

Despite Jezki winning last time out, it's a hard race to weight-up.

I reckon the OH has taken a view that the Morgiana form is possibly questionable, but that if you take Jezki's runs this season at face value, it can credibly be argued high.......and he doesn't want to look like a complete plum, if he takes a pessimistic view, goes low, and Faugheen bolts-up again next time out.

[Aughex]

No different than you thinking the horse you've backed is a good thing...it's called being biased

We're all biased, the difference makes it the knowledge you posses about a particular subject and when it comes to WPM he knew the best of all how H. Fly was going. Ruby also said this "when you see what Hurricane Fly was doing at home, it was a big call to get off him". He was beating the current champion Jezki vs the previous years when he almost got beat by 140 horses so what WPM said is backed by form.

Do you actually agree with the 169 the handicapper gave Faugheen?

If so tell me how you get to that figure? I get a 161 on my abacus

Its long established you're not very skilled on handicapping or judging anything related to horses form, better leave that to the professionals and their handicapping scale on which they work daily. If you want facts outside of his form so you can see how he was rated so highly before the CH, well.. he put up the fastest or 2nd fastest Baring Bingham. His Christmas Hurdle overall time was also 1st or 2nd fastest. In those 2 races the pacemakers were crucial. They were Cole Harden who next year won the Stayers and Blue Heron who next time out won the Kingwell. It'd help him alot nowadays if he had a quality pacemaker as it'd allow him to fully blow the field apart more so than when having to do all the hard work himself.

Despite Jezki winning last time out, it's a hard race to weight-up.

Take Jezki out, Swamp Fox who came with race fitness and is a 90 flat rated animal, his jockey was pushing along with a mile to go. Campeador who's 152 rated over hurdles was legless after 2 out.

Take all of them out, the time figure posted was 169. To give you an idea thats the 2nd best timefigure since timeform started doing these over jumps. That on soft-heavy ground, not good ground like Buveur Dair had in the CH and only managed 167. The best 175 was also his in the Irish CH 2016.

[Grasshopper]

Faugheen's time-figure will presumably be adjusted for the prevailing ground.

I'm already on record as stating it was a mighty performance from Faugheen, and have no real quibble with a rating of 169 myself. However, I would not rate a G1 through horses like Campeador and Swamp Fox myself.

[Aughex]

they afforded him a 168+ rating, 169 is the timefigure. Here's how they judge the ground : https://www.timeform.com/horse-racin...ures_explained They basically take it into account but I've looked around at all of their top time figures and none other than Faugheen's came in soft or worse ground, most of them came during the spring festivals.

As for rating horses through other horses, thats handicapping and I was making more or less the same point Barry Geraghty made yesterday regarding Swamp Fox who's a decent flat horse, came in top form on back of a big win, a neck from winning the Galaway and his jockey was pushing along at the 4th last while the other Campeador, a 152 rated hurdler was out of breath 2 out. The point was taking Jezki out of it. Its a monstrous performance any way you look at it but I think I agree with you its v. hard to put a concrete figure on it.

[Grasshopper]

Like I say, I don't necessarily dispute the figure awarded to Faugheen - I just don't think it's as concrete as you are making out........or at least, there are some reasons for mild caution.

Jezki isn't necessarily guaranteed to give his running these days, and the form of the Istabraq Hurdle is likely not so strong as it seemed at the time. He received a half-stone from a horse that needed at least a half-mile further, and his handicap-mark coming out of that race (155) might have been too generous (or punitive, depending on how you look at it).

Campeador was probably undone to an extent by the ground, and is almost-certainly badly handicapped, after being raised 7lbs for winning a race full of chasers getting sighters in. Hard to know what else supports his OR of 152, other than when he was comfortably-beaten by Apples Jade, on his first run for Elliot. Any way I look at it, there are question-marks about just how good he is.

Much the same applies to Swamp Fox, who got bounced-up 15lbs for not winning two good handicaps - the second of which came on Heavy; a surface where he has routinely disappointed. I do not give a tinker's cuss about his Flat form, which is wholly-irrelevant, as far as I'm concerned.

I say none of this to run Faugheen down. It's intended to demonstrate that the value of the form is open to interpretation - the quality of the performance is almost certainly not.

[Aughex]

Yes I immediately realized I agree on the difficulty of placing a rating only on handicap merits. Regardless, the timefigure has nothing to do with any of the other horses in the race, race time sectionals are judged by a calculator so it takes all the bias away.. and its the 2nd highest achieved, without Paul Townend pressing all the buttons.. just amazing IMO

[Grasshopper]

I have been unable to discuss times in NH races, since the departure of EC1 - it makes me too emotional.

[Kauto Abu]

Interesting reading on the different interpretations on Faugheen’s performance. My own initial thoughts were that visually it was very good. He quickened impressively 2 out to beat Jezki by 16L. Jezki had looked good on his seasonal reappearance beating the Mullins trained Coquin Mans. Then again Jezki had looked good on his seasonal reappearance last year too beating Renneti and Tombstone quite comfortably before been firmly put in his place for the rest of the year. Perhaps the best time to catch the former champ is first time out when fresh so that took the gloss off it slightly for me.

Still curious to delve more, I was listening to The Final Furlong Podcast in the car this morning on the commute to work. Rory Delargy was on and was talking about how, since last Friday, that Timeform are now publishing their time figures for jumps races after compiling them for the last while. They put Faugheen’s performance at 6lbs inferior to his Irish Champion Hurdle demolition job in January 2016 and at 2lbs above Buveur D’Air’s Champion Hurdle win last year.

Very interesting reading for both sides of the argument. Firstly it shows that Faugheen’s performance was indeed impressive and he has come back to very near his brilliant best. However given the fact we know that the horse was very straight for this race, along with the fact that he will be 10 on New Years Day there is very little, if no room for improvement at all.

Now allow for the fact that Buveur D’Air’s Champion Hurdle win was only his second ever race in open company, his first was a non event in the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown last February in which he cruised through, having come back from an initial start over fences. He would’ve done more on the Lambourn gallops at home. Bearing that in mind now allow for the fact that as a 6yo winning the champion hurdle there is every possibility that there will be more improvement to come from BD this year having a full campaign over hurdles with Tuesday 12 March 2018 as his target from this summer. The Champion Hurdle target this year will not just be a late January derail off the Arkle/JLT express line.

His hurdling technique has always been very good and he was very slick last March just hitting the top bar of the 5th. He is a better jumper of hurdles that Faugheen, no question there and the ears were pricked all the way up the hill. There was plenty left in the tank.

I’m biased but this all points to a Buveur D’air win come next March. Faugheen will be the toughest opponent he’ll have met but make no mistake about it Faugheen will not have faced the quality and class of Buveur D’air either.


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[Aughex]

Nice write-up Kauto, just few points. Rory was talking about the timefigures(they started doing those for jumps since 2014/5) not his performance rating which they placed higher in Buv's CH(170+) than Faugheen's comeback(168+).

Regarding Faugheen's opponents quality, I hope you're right and Buv proves a worthy one but .. and I'm not saying its your case, however some people will still say Buv won a weak CH and Faugheen basically beat nothing, so if you're not convinced Faugheen already beat the same or better quality animals of what Buvshowed up to now, then you'll never be. Oh and I get that you're hoping he'll improve but he has to anyways.

You're right, Faugheen's not a great jumper but imagine that he gets all the hurdles right and is not losing couple of lengths at some(in Morgiana he made 3 mistakes, came in short at one in the backstraight, met the 4th last and last completely wrong) of the hurdles, how much improvement do you think that'll make? Or that the jockey doesn't stops riding him in the last furlong? For me, he's already an 180 hurdler, if he improves his jumping he could be 5-10 lbs better. If you think his first run of the season is all he can do, history proves you wrong.

[Tanlic]

Geezuz you talk some crap..Faugheen is A 180 hurdler but could improve up to 10lbs......Yup that would make him 190 the highest rated hurdler in history and 8lbs superior to Night Nurse

You're clueless

[archie]

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racin...ms_top_chasers

[tiggers1972]

I'll not be rushing to take 9/4 about a horse we know is fragile, no matter how good he is.

[archie]

I'm on BDA at 5/1, Faugheen at 4/1 NRNB and Melon ew at 16/1. Boxed it off for now and probably until raceday.

[Tanlic]

Ascot will be interesting and could decide for JP the route to take with Defi Du Seuil if enough of them turn up to create a true run race

It also could become a tactical mess with Lil Rocky given a free hand to cut out the pace while L'ami and Defi stalk him.

My worry would be a sprint from between the last and 2 out transpires .Defi wins by a hard fought half length and that would tell us nothing we don't already know.

[Aughex]

Timeform's Simon Rowlands analysis: https://www.theirishfield.ie/simon-r...meback-325548/

FAUGHEEN is back. Indeed it is almost as if he had never been away!

But away he had been – for 665 days to be precise. When Faugheen last raced, we were five months before the Brexit vote and a year before Donald Trump moved into the White House. Much has changed in the meantime, then, but not the ability of the 2015 Champion Hurdler it would seem.

That may seem a bold assertion to make about a horse who beat just three rivals in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown last Sunday, but it is possible to make it thanks to the evidence of the clock. Time analysis has more worth in some contexts than in others, but nowhere is it more useful than in providing a universal benchmark when there are few guides to the merit of a performance otherwise.

The facts are that Faugheen won the Morgiana in an overall time 7.7s (around half a furlong) faster than 136-rated Top Othe Ra took to win a useful handicap hurdle earlier on the card. Most of that difference came early in the race, but Faugheen still managed to be quicker in all closing sectionals with the exception of the run-in, by when he was coasting.

Faugheen’s time measures up very well against other races over hurdles on the card, as well as with those on the previous day (which started on the inner course but are thereafter comparable).

All the stopwatch signs are that his 16-length thrashing of the 2014 Champion Hurdler Jezki – not the force he once was, but still capable – with Campeador a dozen or so lengths behind that one when coming down at the last, was out of the top drawer.

I have a 169 timefigure for Faugheen on this effort, which is one higher than achieved by Buveur D’Air in winning the Champion Hurdle earlier this year and makes Faugheen the quickest performer to be seen over hurdles or fences so far this season. It really does look that good.

Where the future is concerned, there has to be some caution regarding a horse with Faugheen’s training history who will be a 10-year-old next March. Only Hatton’s Grace in 1950 and Sea Pigeon in 1980 have won the Champion Hurdle at such an advanced age (and both followed up as 11-year-olds).

But Faugheen is still very good – Champion Hurdle-winning good – as this is what the clock says after the weekend. It is great to have him back!

[Tanlic]

Hurricane Fly won the Morgiana 20 seconds faster than Faugheen won his Novice Hurdle on the same day which is about as meaningless as that post

Nichols Canyon was 8 seconds faster than Faugheen Hurricane Fly was about 8 seconds slower one year..they were all much faster than the other hurdle races on the day.

Faugheen took fully 4 minutes to run the race in Soft to Heavy whatever that is mean to be in comparison to soft or heavy...was it more soft than heavy or more heavy than soft.

Will all mean nothing come March when Buvi shoots past him on the way to victory

[Aughex]

Hurricane Fly won the Morgiana 20 seconds faster than Faugheen won his Novice Hurdle on the same day which is about as meaningless as that post

Not unless your mind is completely shattered and ready for the bin. No serious handicapper would only look at 1 race, especially no one will take a slowly run race into consideration for judging race time figures. There are standard times for 2 mile races, for different grounds and timeform has gathered sectionals data for all jumps courses in order to have a complete picture of the times posted and make valid judgement calls. In your specific case just after the Morgiana, a 119 rated handicap hurdler finished his race 4 seconds faster with 18lbs lower on yielding ground thats about 3.5 seconds, hence 0.5 faster than the winner of the G1 who btw just looking at the form only beat a 130 horse by 1 length. Thats so weak that the race could've been downgraded to a class 2 event.

Nichols Canyon was 8 seconds faster than Faugheen Hurricane Fly was about 8 seconds slower one year..they were all much faster than the other hurdle races on the day. Faugheen took fully 4 minutes to run the race in Soft to Heavy whatever that is mean to be in comparison to soft or heavy...was it more soft than heavy or more heavy than soft.

Do you even understand what you're saying? heavy slow faster 8 seconds one year? Why are you combining all these random facts? White sky deep sea green forest.. the rambling is easy but its hard to undermine with it a professional like Simon Rowlands who's knowledge is light years ahead of you.

Will all mean nothing come March when Buvi shoots past him on the way to victory

Don't day dream too much, you've done it long enough with Douvan and that was costly, wasn't it?