Buveur D'Air
Faugheen
Other
If you could back a 25/1 winner every 19 races, you would take it in a heart-beat......and if you didn't, you would be a muppet.
Look, there's absolutely no point in taking on the favourite, unless you think Faugheen will make a Lazarus-style come-back, and I absolutely don't believe that's going to happen. Which leaves a choice of backing the 2's-on chance (not my style), swerving the race altogether (not my style either, insofar as a CH is concerned), or betting in the Without market.
I fail to see how this is a muggy market at all, given that it's a completely new race which BDA takes no part in, and is priced accordingly. It is essentially no different to how the market would look, if BDA stepped on a stone next week, and was forced to miss Cheltenham. All I'm doing is taking a view; same as I would do in any other race, and I think there are holes in pretty-much every runner, including the shorties.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Well there one less you need to worry about Bapaume...one paced..wonder why they even entered him?
Formely Fist of Fury
I wasn't worried about him after the ICH.
Last year's juvenile form has taken a pasting at every turn. It's for this reason that I have no concerns about Charli Parcs either.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 18th February 2018 at 3:41 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
A couple of points Tanlic not that I'm that bothered one way or the other with differences in approach which is all it boils down to.
When was the last time a 50/1 shot was placed is the wrong question to ask because your talking about SP on the day not what price the placed horses were available at Ante-post. I saw on a betfair advert recently that Boover was matched at 230/1 to win last years champion hurdle at some point. God knows what prices horses like Punjabi, Katchit, Hardy Eustace, HorslaoiIII were ante-post Tanlic those were big priced WINNERS never mind placed horses, on the day just off the top of my head and I dare say they were all available at double their SPs at least ante-post. Elgin, If he'd have been amongst the entries before yesterday would have been 50/1 + but on the basis of winning a Kingwell he's now much shorter if entered. In fact he's as low as 6/1 in the market without BD.
A couple of weeks ago when I was saying that Call me Lord should he win the Kingwell would be a much shorter price than what I'd taken you scoffed and said a Kingwell didn't mean ****.
Call me Lord came up well short yesterday and as such won't run therefore I get my dough back as was the point. If he had of won the Kingwell yesterday based on how Elgins has been priced I took the majority of the bet at 25/1 without BD with no risk attached. I'd be sitting on a rather large bet at 25/1 1/4 odds 3 places about a 6/1 poke. It didn't work out this time but no harm done.
I too have backed Ch'tibello and John Constable in the same market although not to as large stakes. The market IMO was there to be attacked on a NRNB basis. When you have Faugheen at the head of affairs who has had his problems and is by no means certain to make it or run to form if he does. MTOY who hasn't been seen since early in the season and is now 11. Yorkhill, Min, Apples Jade all short prices in the market and you wouldn't think they'd be turning up as well as a host of others.
I don't know where you get your information on about JC not running Evan Willilams before the Contenders said he needed to get a run into him before the Champion but he didn't expect too much because whatever he did on the day the horse he feels comes alive on better ground. I have no arguments that he might not be good enough but I'm certainly with Grassy on he's a fair shout to pick up a place at the price he got and I've had a bit at 33's and a bit at 25's without Boover.
If I was asked straight out today what I think will finish second in the CH then I'd probably side with Melon, do I think there is much value in his price ? Not really.
I don't mind your approach and how you do things that's fine but to suggest that others are clueless because they have a different approach to the game is just plain wrong. Whether your the guy that lumps on the Istabraq, Quevaga, Big Bucks ever year or your the guy who occasionally hits the Punjabi's or a big priced handicap winner we all have ups and downs with both approach's.
I'm not the best punter in the world far from it but I certainly wouldn't be the worst and I certainly wouldn't be completely clueless or have a lack of understanding to what it takes to be placed in a Champion hurdle.
In fairness comparisons with other years don't even bare thinking about as Imo Without Boover this race is a pile of crap (with due respect that Faugheen once wasn't) but its summed up by nothing more than the Irish Champion Hurdle was won by a staying hurdler and the English trials that Boover hasn't contested have been dominated by 2 old horses who couldn't win a Champion Hurdle in there prime in serveral attempts.
Last edited by Danny; 18th February 2018 at 5:30 PM.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
I was wondering Des do you have a slow overall time for the race ? They really did ignore COD. Cap n although pinching a start on them you'd have thought they'd have made ground up on that one fairly quickly and they took their time even to pick him up. I'm just thinking maybe they've gone very steady and raced from half way hence the strange result. I'm not by any means trying to excuse CML as I just don't think he was good enough and although I wasn't really convinced before yesterday about this need to go right handed as he'd looked fairly straight at Sandown it was certainly more apparent yesterday that he does need to be going right.
As you've said really I think Flying tiger is holding the form down and is probably a more realistic reflection of what its worth.
Not sure what to make of it.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
You need to realise something as do a few others on here....a 25/1 place in reality is just over 5/2 which makes it a mugs bet if there is no chance of an actual win/2nd. John Constable 20/1 without Buvi Nrnb is not a good bet in anyone's book in the toughest hurdle race to win ........That is about as stupid a bet as you can have IMVHO 100 ew is 200 outlay placed you get 2/1 on your outlay not 5/1..bookies love ya for placing those
Last edited by Tanlic; 18th February 2018 at 6:56 PM.
Formely Fist of Fury
Brilliant and well thought out response.
Thanks Tanlic.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
For starters, the price I have is 25/1 not 20/1. Secondly, the market is 1/4 odds and not 1/5 odds.
Even if I write-off the Win portion of the bet, I’m getting a little over 3/1 on my stake overall, to finish in the top four. In a race like this CH, I won’t write-off the Win portion, because all the runners - apart from BDA - are vulnerable to an extent.
The Without market, as I have tried to tell you before, is not different to any other race market, and playing each-way in it is in no way different from playing each-way in any other market. It is exactly the same, in fact, though this seems something you are unable to grasp.
If you think playing outers each-way is fundamentally bad value, or strictly for mugs, regardless of the market, then that’s fair enough, but you have put enough of them up over the years to suggest that isn’t the case. Either that, or you are a mug yourself.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 18th February 2018 at 7:42 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Hard to say, and I'll get a better idea during the week but...
The closing novices' hurdle over C&D covered the distance from three out to the line five lengths faster. That would suggest to me that the Kingwell field had maybe gone fast and were slowing up, especially considering those five lengths happened from the last hurdle. Even the opening Class 4 handicap hurdle covered the run-in five lengths faster. But the Kingwell field, ignoring COD, got to three out fully 13s faster - that's at least 70 lengths on good ground so maybe a wee bit less in heavy but still not far off a furlong! - than the novices over C&D.
Above edited - I'll add more later in the week.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 18th February 2018 at 9:07 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Danny (18th February 2018)
Just as an aside (I know in the big scheme of things it is irrelevant), the 2m Hd track record holder at Wincanton is Cliffs Of Dover at 3m 22s. Yesterday's race was 3m 55s.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 18th February 2018 at 8:58 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
How does that 3m55s compare against the expected (standard?) time for the given ground conditions, DO?
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
E/W doubles at 16/1+ was probably my most profitable angle at last years festival. Targeting smallish fields with a strong fav was my method.
The without markets should also be utilised and this was a costly mistake of mine in one such double (Special Tiara & Cloudy Dream).
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I won't know until I've got the hard copy in front of me, GH.
Initial rough calcs suggest it was (as you'd expect) faster by some way than the other races but we don't know if those races were true run. It does look to me like they've gone very fast and were going very slow late in the day. Elgin was, as I say, five lengths slower from the last to the line than both the novice hurdle winner and the opening Class 4 2m 5.5f hcap hdle winner, and he [Elgin] was pulling 2.5 lengths clear of Ch'tibello and another 2 lengths to CML, so the OR81 rated Breaking Ground covered the run-in nearly ten lengths faster than the OR152 rated Call Me Lord.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 18th February 2018 at 10:01 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Grasshopper (18th February 2018)
Chtibello was considered, but was both shorter in the betting, and looked a bit gutless (to me) against TNO at Haydock Yesterday’s performance in the Kingwell only confirmed my reservations about him.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
you didn't watch it did you?
No, but his two subsequent runs are more relevant for me anyway. I don’t trust him to put it all in, and he was only 16/1 in the Without market.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 18th February 2018 at 11:25 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Ch'tibello was the one I'd taken out of that race bear and that was when I laid my first money out on him Ante-post for the Champion.
I sort of took a similar view to Grassy after his defeat to TNO. However when I saw they'd applied a tongue tie for yesterday I had second thoughts if they thought he'd had some sort of breathing issue that might of been a fair excuse for not seeing his race out when he looked like he had it won. However he didn't really seem any better at all yesterday for wearing it. Although he's won on Heavy ground it might not really be his favoured surface. It was certainly Heavy at Haydock. Yesterday I was sort of confused by the official going description of Soft Heavy in places as the going stick 5.8 might of suggested there wasn't that much heavy in it. However the times would suggest that it was indeed Heavy Ground.
3.55 was the time for yesterdays renewal and 3.47 for last years on an official going of soft. Ch'tibello was closer to the winner last year and carried 4lb extra. The rest of the times on the card were also comparatively quicker. That to me suggests it was pretty testing yesterday. The fact Des has them going at a hell of a pace and slowing dramatically in the closing stages, I've got it as slow overall time and there is a low TS figure to back that up basically points to a pace collapse and stamina winning the day. It might also point towards them struggling if turned out quickly again. I'd personally like to see Ch'tibello take his chance in the line up for the Champion as I wonder how he'd get on with a stronger pace to sit behind on better ground. Skelton had said originally that they were going to skip the Kingwell and go to Cheltenham with a full tank, which made sense to me. What possessed him to change his mind I don't know but he may well be regretting it now. That's 2 hard races in a month on Heavy not really ideal preparation.
I keep reading that Call me Lord may well go to the County but I'd have thought the Imperial Cup would be a better target given his course form and then Cheltenham as an after thought if he came out of it o.k.
I think it was Double handful and Tanlic mentioning Wicklow brave and he was also one I'd considered for it as I was really open to taking anything at a price but I just thought he faced a really tough task going for the Champion without a Prep he's never really had a good record after a break and he's not getting any younger so I just passed him over on that basis.
Looking at the picture now all the trials are out the way I'd probably have Melon as favourite to fill the runner up spot. He was another who was eye catching in the Bula and for a first run of the season certainly wasn't a bad opener. O.k he disappointed in the ICH but it was apparent there was a huge late drift on betfair and rather than it being skulduggery as was later suggested in the media I think it was more a case of people on course seeing how worked up he got in the preliminaries. He was tried in first time headgear and after playing up ran as flat as a pancake but that is certainly a run I'd forgive especially if he turns up in March without the gear on.
Last edited by Danny; 19th February 2018 at 2:10 AM.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.