If they both turned up in top form it will be a photo-finish - BDA to win by a head.
Buveur D'Air
Faugheen
Other
If they both turned up in top form it will be a photo-finish - BDA to win by a head.
Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.
probably not less than 5 lengths if Faugheen gets there at his best, more than 10 lengths will be nice for his age.
Here is my answer to this, a topic which was given a lot of attention in last hears Champion Hurdle build up. There are, in my opinion, a number of reasons why BD finished 3rd in the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
Firstly, unlike his stablemate Altior who had 4, and similarly last year when River Wylde had 4 runs, BD had only 2 hurdle prep races before the Supreme Novices Hurdle. This is totally against the Henderson mould of preparing novices but here it couldn’t be helped. Buveur D’Air had met with a couple of niggly setbacks early in the season which delayed his seasonal reappearance until 27 November and again he met with more trouble after that Newbury reappearance, maiden hurdle win which kept him off the track until late January when he reappeared at Huntingdon, 2 full months later. So his stablemate had twice the preparation going into the Supreme racking up a nice sequence and gaining invaluable experience. Indeed I recall a quote from Henderson before the Supreme saying he wished he could’ve got another month into Buveur D’Air before the race!
Secondly, when they first arrived it is widely known that BD was thought to be the better of the two between himself & Altior, a thought confirmed by BD finishing ahead of Altior in a Newbury bumper won by Barters Hill at Newbury in Feb 2015. By the time the Supreme came around the following year the stable view was that Altior had surpassed BD now probably owing to his trouble free passage and having physically improved in leaps and bounds too. This was confirmed by their official ratings at the time.
Thirdly, recognising this Fehily, probably on the advise of Henderson, rode Buveur D’Air completely differently than he did in his previous outings by anchoring him dead last of the Supreme field. At the time I was angry about this and thought it was a poor ride but in hindsight, knowing how good Altior was and the interrupted prep Buveur D’Air had, they were riding him to place with a view to winning the Aintree Grade 1 Novice 3 weeks later.
On top of that, the post below which dates back to last years Champion Hurdle thread, cleary shows Buveur D’Air ran an exceptional race to finish 3rd and if he had got luck in running (see photos below with Supasunday) would’ve beaten Min into second and got nearer to Altior.
Moving on a year he clearly shows improvement to put 7 and a half lengths between himself and Petit Mouchoir in a champion hurdle. He had 4 and a half lengths between himself and MTOY in second. When you think that MTOY had been second to Annie Power in the previous CH, giving her 7lbs on his first start in 2 years in the fastest ever run champion hurdle! For BD to beat him by the same distance as AP off equal weights but this time with MTOY completely match fit is a performance ranked much much higher than a lot of you are giving BD credit for. MTOY Cheltenham record is right up there. In the 2016 champion hurdle he beat Nichols Canyon into second, a horse who was the only one ever to lower the colours of the mighty Faugheen just 4 months earlier.
Buveur D’Air has no mountain to climb Reet Hard. He’s reached the summit. He is the Champion Hurdler.
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Last edited by Kauto Abu; 7th December 2017 at 12:26 PM.
an capall (15th December 2017)
Not this lark again!
BDA is no more than 3L (four maximum) behind Altior after jumping two out. Altior goes away from him up the hill. BDA is a hold-up performer - something you wholly-concede throughout this year's thread - and he ran his race. There are/were no excuses.
As for luck in-running, Min propped at one hurdle, and finished the race with an injury. Again, there are/were no excuses.
Clearly, BDA has improved since then, as you would expect a novice to do, but trying to retrofit reasons for his defeat in the Supreme based on this analysis, is simply not sustainable, in my view.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 7th December 2017 at 12:14 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
That’s where opinions differ Grass. You accept yours is valid and I except mine is. For example I don’t believe attempting to put a number of BD at Newcastle is valid either. Some will argue you have to.
It’s just all opinions.
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Last edited by Kauto Abu; 7th December 2017 at 12:19 PM.
Amen.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
My number for BDA for Newcastle is 148++
In other words, he still has four legs.
The only other thing to consider is how much weight to give to Barry Geraghty's assertion that he feels as though he's improved again.
Strange, though, how we can easily dismiss the form as meaningless whereas when Istabraq was doing it to donkeys people were gushing about it. Likewise Faugheen against non-triers.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Yes DO. Or making Annie Power a superstar for beating MTOY getting weight, but when BD beats him similarly drawing comparisons to a more competitive champion hurdle in 2016 as others would classify it, you get “ah it’s just MTOY”!!
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More or less bang-on what I would have given him, DO (149 with previously mentioned boatload of ++'s, FWIW).
I think you're being a little unfair to Istabraq though. Whilst he sometimes beat poor horses, he wasn't afforded high-ratings for it, and when he did meet good ones, he generally despatched them with similar authority. Certainly Moscow Flyer, Limestone Lad, and French Holly were all vastly superior animals to Irving or Flying Tiger.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Don't get me wrong, GH.
I was as big a fan of Istabraq as anyone but I wasn't blind to the mediocrity of some of his opponents and I didn't think some of the gushing about his wins in uncompetitive affairs was justified. As you say, he could also dismiss quality opponents with the same disdain.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 7th December 2017 at 1:08 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
A race fit 10yo who ran as consistently as ever. Giving his race record I’d consider him a very fair yardstick. The New One is another.
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I’m not doing it to justify his level Grass, I don’t need to do that. I’m confident I know exactly where that’s at is in my own head.
This is a discussion forum where some have argued that BD has not performed against top class opposition and when he did it was as a results of others “having given their all” at that stage of the race. That’s generally what you do in Champion hurdle I would’ve thought, give your all. If there’s a better horse so be it.
My referencing tent & TNO was in direct response to the above claim to demonstrate that, in my opinion, he has run in top class company directly through, and with other form lines associated with those two horses and coped more than admirably. That’s why officialy he’s a few pounds shy of Faugheen after a handful of hurdle races in open company.
There are very few ways to try and guage what’ll happen in March apart from having opinions. Both My Tent & TNO gives us clues if you care to interpret it like that, as they’ve been present in the last number of Champion Hurdles and are yardsticks. Some will, some wont.
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Last edited by Kauto Abu; 7th December 2017 at 2:04 PM.
To be fair, you were inferring that MTOY returning from two years off against Annie Power, was the same horse running at the same level as the race-fit, but year older, MTOY beaten by Buveur D'Air. That's what I take issue with. It's just not a valid comparison, imo.
None of it is relevant to BDA's chance this year though.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
And there’s that word again opinion. You’re perfectly entitled to it and while I respect it I don’t agree with it.
I’m sure you wont agree but you could easily argue that a fit 10yo MTOY was in a much better place than a very fresh, coming back from injury, 9yo MTOY with no prep allowing for the history of tent pulling the arms off his jockey.
We agree here somewhat. I used it as an example to show he has raced last year against consistently very good yardsticks which others here were knocking.None of it is relevant to BDA's chance this year though.
The Champion Hurdle of 2017, early and all as it is to be discussing it, has worked out very well form wise. A lot better than many were giving it credit for.
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Last edited by Kauto Abu; 7th December 2017 at 2:21 PM.
More so with Wicklow Brave winning the Punchestown Champion hurdle beating tent & Artic Fire, a formline which upholds the champion hurdle form and more with the latter and also The New Ones good consistent form this season in handicaps.
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Last edited by Kauto Abu; 7th December 2017 at 2:33 PM.
The objective (?) atr formscan is mediocre but I'm not sure that objectivity has much of a place on this thread.
The older I get the better I was.
Melon looks like he’s an intended runner in the International hurdle this Saturday along with TNO & MTOY, tho with forecast soft ground for the weekend the tent may well skip it.
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