That's nonsensical. Once you're beating the odds you will win long term. Kelly is only optional if you can always calculate the true price which is just not possible for 99.9999% of punters to do on horse racing. It works far better on sports like NBA, NFL or especially MLB.Originally Posted by Jumper
I haven't a clue which particular bet in any sequence of mine 'beats the odds ' , all I know is that over a period of time I will come out in profit.
I only bet on horse racing, so I'm afraid I can't comment on any other sport.
Last edited by Jumper; 28th June 2017 at 9:26 PM.
It's pretty simple. Compare your bets against the Betfair SP.
Overall that shows my bets are value, however I am unable to predict that on an individual bet basis. Or are you talking about comparing betfair sp against industry prices ?
If you're beating betfair SP on average there is no obvious reason why betting to win an amount should be better or worse than level stakes or any other staking plan.
If you established that your edge was greater on the longer priced winners then level stakes would be better than 'betting to win an amount', and vice versa.
With my own betting I seem to subconsciously tend towards betting to win an amount - I'll generally have more on the shorter the price to make the bet worthwhile. For example I might have £60 on a 20/1 shot but I wouldn't bother having £60 at evens as it'd be pointless.
I remember having £60 on Toronado to win the Queen Anne at evens, I was listening on the radio at work and I swear it took 10 mins to prize my fingers from the steering wheel
My biggest ever bet is probably £25. I place too great a value on £60 to risk it betting!I remember having £60 on Toronado to win the Queen Anne at evens, I was listening on the radio at work and I swear it took 10 mins to prize my fingers from the steering wheel
That's actually reassuring to know, I always got the impression that most folk on here would give Patrick Veitch a run for his money
It may be a case of empty vessels making the most sound
That's actually reassuring to know, I always got the impression that most folk on here would give Patrick Veitch a run for his money
There is nothing at all wrong with betting £25 or £60 as your max bet. You will get the same satisfaction that a massive punter will betting 10k. Its only problem gamblers I feel sorry form, those poor souls have no chance.
Last edited by SlimChance; 30th June 2017 at 11:18 AM.
fonz (30th June 2017)
This resonates with me.
I keep stakes to what, by most, would be considered to be relatively meagre levels. I have neither the balls nor the money to be any more ambitious. £50 would be a big bet for me.
Yet if I have a decent winner on course the people around me would probably think I'd just landed the touch of the century and be getting straight on the phone to tell my boss to 'stick it'. No greater feeling in the world than being on one at a decent price when it pings the last and draws clear, whatever you've got riding on it.
I got seriously annoyed at Leopardstown when a group of us cheered home an odds on shot in the bumper. A few of us were on a double and a few were cheering it on because a punter in the group who is a massive (but awful) gambler was on big. A guy in front of us turned around and gave a few snide remarks about cheering home a jolly and suggesting we couldn't have won much. There is nothing worse than a begrudging genius like that.
I know some seriously shrewd punters who I'd follow on who never go over £50-£100. As my ex-girlfriends sister used to say, "Size doesn't matter Slim"...
Last edited by SlimChance; 30th June 2017 at 11:24 AM.
Jumper (30th June 2017)
I'm afraid to say that I would no sooner get on a horse 'big' than I would my girlfriend's sister.
In the great game of 'stick or twist' we call 'life', a high risk strategy for me would involve risking a week's worth of ear ache from the good lady for dipping into next week's milk money to fund a couple of lines on the placepot at Hexham.
My middle name is 'Danger'.
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