I wondered how members approach this issue ?
I back win only up to 6/1, over that I go each way.
Also for shorter prices up to about 3/1 I put them in each way doubles on the grounds that 2 placed at say 7/4 gets your stake back.
Anyone else ?
I wondered how members approach this issue ?
I back win only up to 6/1, over that I go each way.
Also for shorter prices up to about 3/1 I put them in each way doubles on the grounds that 2 placed at say 7/4 gets your stake back.
Anyone else ?
Completely depends on the shape of the race for each way purposes. Number of runners, number of places, each way terms, is there a short priced favourite.
Analyse the place part of the bet separately to see if it's value: if so, bet ew, if not, don't.
Agreed- I try not to be too rigid about this and will back each way down to about 2/1 sometimes
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A 2/1 shot can be a great ew bet in some circumstances. Likewise a 10/1 shot can be hopeless ew.
I hated school and was terrible at maths so be gentle with me; I hear this angle now and again and have never understood how on earth betting a single each way at 2/1 even at quarter the odds can ever be a profitable bet??
Ok. First thing you're looking for is whether the place market is overround or overbroke (assume you're familiar with this)?
Imagine 8 runners, 1/5 the odds a place.
Your 2/1 shot, decimal odds 3. You're getting 2/5 to place, decimal odds 1.4. This implies a 71.4pc chance of placing (1 divided by 1.4 is 0.714)
Do this for all the runners and add them together. As there are three places the real life probability of all the horses placing added together should be 300pc.
If the number you get is less than 300pc this means the place market is overbroke and the odds are in your favour. The profit margin built into a market by a bookmaker has is now in your favour. The maths more often than not work out when there is a shortish priced favourite.
Let's use a realistic example market, including your 2/1 shot.
4/5
2/1
5/1
20/1
25/1
40/1
50/1
66/1
The win chances add up to 120pc - nothing out of the ordinary here, the bookie has a 20pc margin in their favour.
But the place chances add up to 272pc - i.e. Overbroke. Of course you can't just take the place part of the bet, but if you could, you could theoretically stake £272 for a guaranteed £300 return. This is what's meant by bad ew. Bets in these markets combined into multiples can be powerful compounders of value, and will often lead to account closure.
Returning to your 2/1 shot, on which you're getting 1.4 to place. Look at the betfair place market and you'd see that it's more like 1.25 to place - which shows you're getting ew value, provided you're happy with the win side of the bet.
Sorry if that's a bit long winded. I'll happily send you my spreadsheet I made for working out quickly whether a race is bad ew.
I have three strong fancies tomorrow. 16 , 10 , and 2/1. Is it foolish to back the three in an each way trixie? Given the price of the 2/1? The 16 + 10s chances I obviously like each way. I'm wondering what the best bet to place is. Any advice appreciated.
Last edited by Marb; 27th June 2017 at 7:43 PM.
On the face of it I would suggest a win bet on the 2/1 and each way on the others.
I would place a 20% win on the 16/1 and 10/1 and a 80% place on the exchanges
Check the prices in the betfair exchange place market (if its liquid??) and compare to the place prices you would get by backing each way.
As a general rule you should be backing each way in races with 8-10 runners, ideally with a short priced fav and a few big prices outsiders.
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Always compare the price to Betfair. You should spend as much time executing good bets as you should finding bets.
What are the other fancies ?
Carlisle 5:00 Madroos..
Last edited by Marb; 28th June 2017 at 1:39 PM.
Anyone ever try this:
http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php
This fine if you've a rigid betting style and are confident in your pricing ability but its just pointless for most punters to use. I'd rather see someone bet to win a certain amount with a scale of say 200-300-500 per bet. That way you can have different confidence of bets without needing a calculator to work out your stake.
Also a sport like racing allows for a more fluid staking plan. For example I can bet 40 e/w or 400 e/w on different races on the same day. Other sports like NBA and NFL I rarely stray for 220-330-550. Its more important to work out what your staking range should be rather than tie yourself in knots on exact amounts.
Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins
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