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Thread: Novice Hurdlers 2017/2018

  1. #301
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    I took some 8/1 (NRNB/BOG) Santini for the Albert Bartlett yesterday evening (rather than 12/1 without the guarantees).

    I'm not sure how reliable the times are for Saturday's racing but I have Santini and Black Op posting festival-winning times for their race (30lbs faster than Agrapart, for example).

    I'm not sure if BO is also targeting the race but it appears to be Santini's only entry and I am under the impression that he wasn't quite 100% yet at the weekend. BO had the tongue tie and might have been closer to full fitness, but that's really just playing hunches on my part.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 1st February 2018 at 6:37 PM.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  4. #302
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    Black Op will be going to Cheltenham according to George. Ballymore or the Bartlett, with decision to be made closer to the time.

  5. #303
    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
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    DO - think you're right to play NRNB as there's a very good chance Santini bypasses the festival judged on the Hendo comments so far. For sure hes a novice chaser to watch out for next year...

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  7. #304
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    I've taken 12s for the Supreme to bits and pieces. Expect to lose it without a run for my money but I reckon the chances of him lining up are better than the disparity between the 3/1 NRNB and 12/1 AP prices.
    Just make sure no-ones filming you this year when Kennedy comes storming up the hill again.

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  8. #305
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Cracking Smart is armchair-viewing in the Bartlett.

    Locked.
    Spouting shite on here since 2006.

  9. #306
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Elliott says Ballymore is still plan A for Samcro. For entirely selfish reasons that is good news.


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  11. #307
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    Unless it comes up soft or worse I'd imagine Bear. I have the same selfish reasons with two sizeable singles at 14/1 and inclusion in some nice looking multiples at the same price with the right horses. I'm praying for a dry week in the lead up, as many others are I'd expect.

  12. #308
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    For selfish reasons myself I'd rather Samcro go for the Ballymore. However, without looking through multiples etc, I have a On The Blind Side at 16s e/w in a few so they suddenly look a whole lot prettier.

    Once I get my head around laying horses and the percentages I'll be a whole lot happier.

  13. #309
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    I did a bit of unrefined sectional analysis of the recent Leopardstown meeting and was pleased that my findings were quite close to Simon Rowlands's. On the basis of those findings I started backing Rhinestone for the bumper and I'm planning on starting to chip away at Mr Adjudicator for the Triumph.

    I've just done a similar exercise with the Christmas meeting at the same track but only two races really lend themselves to comparison, which is a wee bit unsatisfactory.

    However, this is what I've noted so far:

    I’ve had a wee look at the Leopardstown race at Christmas in which Sharjah and Real Steel fell at the last when five lengths clear of the eventual winner Whisky Sour.

    In the same race Elliott’s Mengli Khan was disputing the lead when running through the wing two out. Mullins said later he thought MK was going to win but I suspect that’s a misdirection. Nothing was going better than Sharjah at the time.

    There’s more than that to the race, though. I’ve done another bit of neanderthal sectional timing and it tells quite a story.

    The next race was a decent 2m handicap hurdle so I did some split times to see how the runnings compared, timing them from the first flight. There were only two seconds (10-11 lengths) in favour of the novices’ race at the line but the winner Whisky Sour carried 15lbs more, plus the handicap winner Trainwreck’s 5lbs claimer’s allowance. Sharjah and Real Steel, though, were both five lengths clear of WS when they both fell at the last. Real Steel was flat out at the time while Sharjah was travelling very easily.

    But, as Jimmy Cricket would say, there’s more.

    Ignoring the fact that the novices got to the first flight fully two seconds (10/11 lengths) faster, which could be accounted for by mis-timing on the TV clock, they opened up another second by the second flight. That’s another five lengths. Already Whisky Sour was detached at the back. They were the same margin clear at the third hurdle but then they seemed to take off and by the time they got to the fourth the gap had opened to fully nine seconds, probably at least 50 lengths. By now Real Steel was being hard driven to stay in touch with the pack, a few lengths off them as the more conservatively ridden Whisky Sour started closing him down.

    The gap remained at nine seconds until three out with Sharjah going arguably easier than those around him. Two out the gap was down to 7 seconds and at the last it was 5 seconds for Sharjah and Real Steel or four for Whisky Sour. It was two seconds at the line but Sharjah would probably have stayed at least another second – five lengths – in front as he had not been asked a question whereas as Real Steel was keeping on for hard driving.

    It’s hard to know how true-run the handicap was. I don’t know how to do closing sectional percentages but that 50-length gap at halfway is ridiculous. It is no wonder the handicappers were narrowing the gap from three out. Sharjah and Real Steel are clearly very smart and, as I said before, may have been eased off in training in the light of this race thereby explaining their seemingly disappointing performances last weekend. Mengli Khan was still there two out but I would take a lot of convincing that he would have beaten Sharjah. However, he is clearly very smart too. This race could be the key to more than just the Supreme.

    Real Steel might be more of a Ballymore (Neptune) type given that he struggled with the pace, as might Whisky Sour who wasn’t even asked to go with it. The others who raced with the pace finished 19 lengths away. In the handicap, after they straightened for home only two or three lengths covered the first ten. By the last it was at least ten lengths and at the line the first two were six lengths clear of the third and fourth who in turn were another six clear of the fifth. A lot of those would have been slowing down.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  14. #310
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    Whisky Sour stayed on well last week for fourth behind Samcro.
    With his big wins last Summer he is one to watch ew wherever he runs as he has big field form, is battle hardened and is so so consistent.

  15. #311
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    The Qatar horse has an entry this weekend.

    He could be a late Springer
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

  16. #312
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    Very strange decision to have him over hurdles in the first place IMO. He's 9 now and ran pretty shite on his sole start to date in this sphere
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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