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Thread: Novice Chasers 2017/2018

  1. #141
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    Pretty much all positive and an enormous benefit to have Davy on board. Just the best to educate your novice chaser.
    The older I get the better I was.

  2. #142
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Also a tremendous benefit when you have your balls on LOL
    Formely Fist of Fury

  3. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by LUKE View Post
    4/6 Petite Mouchoir freely available.If anyone is thinking of lumping on I wouldn't be worried by the drift -I've never known Henry not to have his top class recruits to chasing ready first time out.Sizing Europe started at even money in a novice chase run in the month of May racing against yaks.
    I never gave anything a thought if they put a price up I took it.............very easy never put a foot wrong if he was Willie's he's be half the price for the Arkle but as predicted single figures
    Formely Fist of Fury

  4. #144
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    PM 10/1 to win any Chelt race with Betfair Sportsbook.
    Last edited by archie; 18th October 2017 at 6:48 PM.
    The older I get the better I was.

  5. #145
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    Interesting.... was trading at 12.5 but someone got out at 7.8 ...only thing is you don't get the profit till March :0)
    Formely Fist of Fury

  6. #146
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    Another nice round by Death Duty.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  7. #147
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    Straight to the Drinmore now you would have thought.

  8. #148
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    Just looking at the novice chase championships, where you'd expect a properly planned campaign, the last 6 winners started on the following dates:
    Arkle
    Altior 21/11
    Douvan 22/11
    UDS 27/11
    Western Warhorse 17/11 (hurdle, first chase 26/12)
    Simonsig 21/12
    Sprinter Sacre 9/12

    JLT (Golden Miller)
    Yorkhill 17/12
    Black Hercules 14/12
    Vautour 23/11
    Taquin Du Seuil 29/10
    Benefficient 22/9
    Sir Des Champs 3/12

    RSA
    Might Bite 6/11
    Blaklion 10/10
    Don Poli 22/11
    O'Faolain's Boy 21/12
    Lord Windermere 11/11
    Bobs Worth 25/11

    Food for thought if you fancy Finian's Oscar and/or Death Duty?
    The older I get the better I was.

  9. The Following User Says Thank You to archie For This Useful Post:

    granger (20th October 2017)

  10. #149
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    Small sample size -Sizing Europe won his novice chase in May.A couple of Albert Bartlett winners have been summer jumpers (I know it's hurdling).

  11. #150
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    It's an interesting post Archie but like any trend it's either for you or against you
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  12. #151
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    It's a stat that is there to be used in conjunction with other stats and whatever method you use to select the winner. It's bordering on Trumpism to belittle a stat because it doesn't agree with your own assessment.

    In this case, I'd say the stat is slightly skewed because of the number of Mullins and Henderson horses on the list. Those two both work in the same way, ie backwards from the target so they have regular debut races already pencilled in. To get a horse fit this early in the season means that they will have been brought in earlier so it must be a cunning plan hatched months ago. I'm just intrigued that no-one has thought to ask Elliott and Tizzard the rationale behind it.
    The older I get the better I was.

  13. #152
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    Some horses just don't want to run on potentially bottomless ground so they get an early race or two then put away until the spring.

    WPM wasn't in any rush previously to get his string out too early but after the battle with GE last season, I can see that turning too
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  14. #153
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    There is some merit to archie's stat - as he alluded to it is slightly skewed with the presence of Mullins and Henderson who start their horses off later with a view to peaking for Cheltenham and Punchestown.

    Tizzard does have previous with not pulling up sticks mid season with good novices when they could arguably have done with a break at Christmas. Thistlecrack and Joe Lively spring to mind.

    In contrast, although De Bromhead had Sizing Europe out in May he closed shop at Christmas and kept him fresh for the Arkle.

    Similarly Elliott has gotten some match practice in early on with Death Duty on better ground with a view to targeting the Drinmore and then Christmas before taking a winter break. No More Heroes adopted a similar campaign. Mouse also adopted this approach with Alpha Des Obeaux and before that First Lieutenant.

  15. #154
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    Looking forward to seeing Brelan D'As today. Could be a very useful one for Nicholls, although he's clearly fragile.

  16. #155
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    One of my Tracker horses, Bonjers - hoping for a bold showing.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  17. #156
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    West Approach in the same race is one I have been looking forward to going over fences

  18. #157
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    Nice performances from West Approach and Capitaine.

  19. #158
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    The worry for Capitane is that he seems to prefer going right handed

    PFN loves him though which is a plus
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  20. #159
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    I'm a sucker for front running grays, but was really taken with Capitaine. Didn't see anything that made me think he has to go that way round, but if it's the case there are plenty of good races for him to run in

    West Approach also very likable, jumped well and clearly a decent stayer in the making

  21. #160
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    Yanworth and Sternrubin both entered in a Beginners Chase at Exter tomorrow.

    FWIW, Timeform suggest that the "compact Yanworth is not an obvious chasing type", though Barry Geraghty reckons "he has scope".
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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