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Thread: Novice Chasers 2017/2018

  1. #821
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flagship uberalles View Post
    He never really settled and had him written off quite a way out. However, he didn't look like he was stopping come up the hill - but can't see him ever getting near the winner, he rocketed away and looks different class entirely.
    Horse was the same in the Flogas but nothing took him on for the lead so NF was able to settle him from the front that day. Thought connections might have been alive to this going into RSA but probably the downside of intensive schooling post his heavy fall at Christmas.

    Have to agree with the above 2 comments in that he has a lot less mileage on the clock than the winner and on pedigree he is only going to get better with age and at 3 miles. Dam is from family of Be My Belle and Roses of Inchiquin.

    Presenting Percy did him for toe, not stamina, just as Penhill did 12 months previously.

  2. #822
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    Presenting Percy was impressive and clearly loves Cheltenham but he will have to improve no end to get near Native River and Might Bite judging by his form with Our Duke.

  3. #823
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ardross View Post
    Presenting Percy was impressive and clearly loves Cheltenham but he will have to improve no end to get near Native River and Might Bite judging by his form with Our Duke.
    Rewatch the race.

    Very much a sympathetic ride from DR.
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  4. #824
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    Rewatch the race.

    Very much a sympathetic ride from DR.
    Not that sympathetic though ! PP will find chasing those two a very different prospect to anything he has done before.

  5. #825
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ardross View Post
    Not that sympathetic though ! PP will find chasing those two a very different prospect to anything he has done before.
    I think that is fairly clear but PP will be a second season chaser and is open to all kind of improvement and clearly shows his best in Prestbury Park, just please god for once we get all the main players there in one piece.

  6. #826
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    I would not be basing the chances of Percy in relation to the run of Duke in the Gold Cup. That would be a massive mistake.
    Last edited by Frankel; 19th March 2018 at 7:43 PM.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

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  7. #827
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    I would not be basing the chances of Percy in relation to the run of Duke in the Gold Cup. That would be a massive mistake.
    Has there been a report that Our Duke was ill or injured ?

  8. #828
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Best Arkle performances in the modern era (@Timeform):
    184 - Sprinter Sacre
    174 - Footpad
    169 - Douvan
    167 - Un De Sceaux
    161 - Altior


    What complete and utter nonsense

    Douvan beat Sprinter Sacre's performance at every turn.

    Faster overall on softer ground over a second faster from 4 out despite being 3 lengths behind at 3 out

    Sprinter Sacre beat Cue Card by 7 lengths. Cue Card never won a chase over 2 miles
    Douvan beat Sizing John 7 lengths . Sizing John won both his 2 mile chases before losing to Douvan

    Both horses ended up top class staying chasers.

    15lbs between them according to Timeform is nonsense.

    I would have thought Altior performance was as good as Footpad. Footpad incidentally took 8 seconds or was 32 lengths slower than Douvan......that seems a lot even allowing for the ground difference?????
    Last edited by Tanlic; 20th March 2018 at 12:15 PM.
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  9. #829
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    All 3 were foot perfect jumpers

    Footpad is the only real classy novice that Willie has immediately talked up as being a GC horse
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  10. #830
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    I can't see why Willie would step Footpad up in trip yet. As the younger horse (7 next year) of him, Douvan (9 next year), and Min (8 next year), surely the other two are more likely to be stepped up in trip. I'd be surprised if Min doesn't run over two and half at Aintree, with maybe Douvan possibly the same at Punchestown.

  11. #831
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Munir Souede will hopefully have Sceau Royal back next season. If he goes the right way, that might spring them to up Footpad in trip.

    The latter does look all-over a Champion Chaser to me, though.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  12. #832
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    Yep, me too

    That much speed. Ryanair would be a waste so hopefully minimum trip
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  13. #833
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    On good ground against Altior eg . I doubt if WPM would want to go there with Footpad

    He loved that ground in the Arkle but hated the ground in the Triumph and couldn't go the pace early in the Irish Champion Hurdle

    Despite Petit Mouchoir stopping like shot and Footpad making up a lot of ground late he still failed to get there,

    Quite the opposite on slower ground.

    It's not like he hates the ground but he is obviously better with cut and may just have more stamina than speed ..so possibly 3 miles could be the way to go
    Formely Fist of Fury

  14. #834
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Sprinter Sacre beat Cue Card by 7 lengths. Cue Card never won a chase over 2 miles
    Douvan beat Sizing John 7 lengths . Sizing John won both his 2 mile chases before losing to Douvan
    Cue Card won the Haldon off 157 over 2m1 1/2
    He beat For Non Stop (rated around 153) over 2m2 giving him 7lbs

    His only run over an exact 2m was against Sprinter but it's clear from the runs above at distances not far in excess and his Arkle run
    that he was capable of very good form over the trip.

    The best horse Sizing John beat over 2m was probably Lord Scoundrel.
    Last edited by Euronymous; 21st March 2018 at 2:42 PM.

  15. #835
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ardross View Post
    Not that sympathetic though ! PP will find chasing those two a very different prospect to anything he has done before.
    It was what I like to call a Tommy Stack ride and Tommy could stop one be beaten a neck and you'd be certain he was trying his best.

    Have to agree with Granger. Davy could have won but never set about the horse at all and was thinking Cheltenham which paid off big time.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  16. #836
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Cue Card won the Haldon off 157 over 2m1 1/2
    He beat For Non Stop (rated around 153) over 2m2 giving him 7lbs

    His only run over an exact 2m was against Sprinter but it's clear from the runs above at distances not far in excess and his Arkle run
    that he was capable of very good form over the trip.

    The best horse Sizing John beat over 2m was probably Lord Scoundrel.
    True but you can't for one minute say Sizing John was not and lets not forget he also won over 2m4f beating Djakadam rate 167 by 7 lengths.

    It would be nonsense to say Cue Card was a better horse at any distance.

    My whole point is........no matter how you bake it Douvan outpointed Sprinter Sacre at every turn in their Arkle's

    Sprinter Sacre: Time: 3m 51.10s (fast by 0.90s) Going: (Old course) Chase & Hurdle courses - GOOD (Good to soft in places; watered; 7.3); Cross-country course - GOOD TO FIRM
    Douvan: Time: 3m 48.60s (fast by 3.40s) Going: GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places; 7.0)

    Both horses cruised through their races until 4 out...Despite running on slower ground Douvan put up a faster overall time.

    More telling is when the race really takes a grip.

    Sprinter Sacre definitely quickened 4 out getting to the 3rd last in 34 seconds a full second ahead on Douvan.

    However Douvan kicked in at the 3rd last and was fully 2 seconds faster than Sprinter Sacre

    In other words Douvan turns a 4 length deficit to a 4 length advantage which he held all the way to the line.

    It does show that Douvan possesses a brilliant turn of foot and would have certainly given Sprinter an awful lot to think about, moreso than Cue Card.

    How Timeform if they had compared the 2 performances could come up with a lousy 159 against a 184 for Sprinter Scare is a joke and I don't think for one minute they are too high on Sprinter

    They should definitely drop the word Time from their name as they obviously in this case never took it into consideration or even bothered to look beyond the end of their noses.





    Everyone could see he was travelling all over Altior and Co when he came down but many are quick to suggest he would have blown up because he might not have been match fit.

    In affect the same people are admitting he looked all over the winner.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  17. #837
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    It would be nonsense to say Cue Card was a better horse at any distance.

    My whole point is........no matter how you bake it Douvan outpointed Sprinter Sacre at every turn in their Arkle's
    I'll concede the latter point. SS was much better in open company the following season though.

    Cue Card's wins in the Ryanair and the KG read much better than anything SJ achieved

  18. #838
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Not sure what is being argued here (and can't really be arsed to check), but if it's that Douvan's Arkle was better form than Sprinter Sacre's Arkle, then it's bollocks, imo.

    Just because Cue Card, Al Ferof, and Menorah all went on to win at longer trips, should detract from what they were able to achieve as 2-milers. You've got 2x Supreme winners in there, plus Cue Card, who was 4th behind Al Ferof in arguably the best Supreme ever run. The suggestion that these are/were worse 2-miler-chasers than Sizing John, at the same stage of their respective careers, just doesn't wash with me I'm afraid.

    Sprinter Sacre's Arkle was easily the deeper race, imo.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 22nd March 2018 at 5:01 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  19. #839
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    The point being made is the figures produced by Timeform of 184 Sprinter Sacre 169 Douvan for their respective Arkle wins are a pile of shite.

    You are looking at ink on paper and not looking or studying the actual races.

    You seem oblivious to the fact that something has to finish second to these horses and half the time it doesn't mean diddly squat.

    Cue Card would never have won a Champion Chase as long as his ass pointed backwards and neither would Sizing John.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  20. #840
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Timeform Chasers & Hurdlers has them rated as follows: Sprinter Sacre 175p, Douvan 180p.

    Sprinter Sacre's C&H rating may also reflect his Aintree win, and Douvan's may reflect his Aintree and Punchestown wins, in their respective novice seasons.

    I'm not sure where the 184 and 169 figures come from, but if that's how they rated them both post-Arkle, then the figures are clearly wrong - there wouldn't be anything like a stone between the two performances. Are you sure the numbers are right?
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 22nd March 2018 at 6:42 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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