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Thread: Novice Chasers 2017/2018

  1. #601
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bonjers View Post
    He's an absolutely electric jumper. Proper 2 miler.
    I couldn't believe how low he got over some of his fences today, but never looked at all like falling, stunning performance.

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  3. #602
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    The Arkle is a lot tougher for 5yos now they don't get the 5lb allowance.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kauto Abu View Post
    Timeform have got that wrong. Footpad is about 5-6 ahead of him. Naturally there will be progression from PM to narrow that gap but it should be remembered Footpad is winning on the bridle & has plenty left in the tank too.
    I think Timeform's figures reflect whatever 'mark-up' their sectionalistas recommend.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  5. #604
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Not that this is likely to happen but someone's not keeping their eye on the ball at Bet 365. They are NRNB and have Footpad 6/1 for the JLT. The other two firms are quite rightly evens.

  6. #605
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    Reckon they'll go a mad pace, something at silly odds will get in the frame.
    I don't think SC will win the Arkle, but I think his presence could hinder Footpad given they both go from the front. So I've backed Petit Mouchoir.

  7. #606
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Can't see any reason why Footpad can't leave SC at it and sit in behind him. I know he led against PM lto, but those were the tactics needed to win that race. Time before that he sat in 3rd most the way round. He doesn't have to lead imo.

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  8. #607
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    HRI updated ratings:

    155 Monalee
    153 Al Boum Photo
    152 Invitation Only
    151 Dounikos
    149 Snow Falcon
    147 Tombstone
    147 The Storyteller
    .
    .
    145 Kemboy
    What festival race is Kemboy most likely to go for, if any, Archie?

  9. #608
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    Come on, DH, we're talking Willie here! He will always answer a question honestly with the truth as he sees it at the time but that truth can change at any time until declaration day depending on what he sees on the gallops.

    Kemboy is entered in all 3 of the main novice chases and the target, at the moment, is most likely the JLT but in 3 weeks time....? I'm told it's unlikely that he'll be entered in the handicaps but he does have an entry for the Irish National so you can read into that whatever you like and your guess will be absolutely as good as mine.
    The older I get the better I was.

  10. #609
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Come on, DH, we're talking Willie here! He will always answer a question honestly with the truth as he sees it at the time but that truth can change at any time until declaration day depending on what he sees on the gallops.

    Kemboy is entered in all 3 of the main novice chases and the target, at the moment, is most likely the JLT but in 3 weeks time....? I'm told it's unlikely that he'll be entered in the handicaps but he does have an entry for the Irish National so you can read into that whatever you like and your guess will be absolutely as good as mine.
    Cheers archie. It was more the H'Cap angle I was coming from as 145 OR could look very generous in time.

  11. #610
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    I may have jumped the gun with my above question/description of Black Corton - having not seen the race - as the Tizzrd horse apparently had every chance.

    However, he's run 4 times now on good ground and keeps winning. Clearly stays 3 miles and needs the better ground. Agree Grassy that the obvious thing is to put him away until the Spring and his rating will likely me mid 150's anyway.

    As I said above, recent RSA chase winners have been similar mark (Might Bite 156 last year) - though appreciate with Novice Chasers, ratings not as reliable at this point.
    Initially I was tempted to back him at 25/1 - but Bet Victor only firm with any price up - which made me pause. Why would no other Bookies even have a price up, especially after winning on the C&D today?
    Moving the RSA chat on Presenting Percy, Black Corton etc.over on the Gold Cup Thread back to this Novice chase thread.

    As per above quote I mentioned Black Corton back in October - mainly as he'd won twice on C&D at Chelt, was already rated 150+ and would like the better ground. Even then I agreed that it was unlikely he'd be a true RSA contender.
    As it stands I only took 25/1 in an E/W Lucky 15 (Footpad 5/1, Apple's Shakira 4/1 and Min 10/1 Ryanair being the other 3 - A pity as looks like Min in the wrong race now).

    As Triggers mentions on the other thread, it's hard to knock Black Corton - He just keeps winning and has clearly improved as the season has progressed.

    He's had a lot of runs though and I'd imagine most here will still rubbish his chance to actually win the RSA. The 8/1 at the moment is probably fair considering what he has done.

  12. #611
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Thought it was worth reprising this astute and insightful piece of analysis from yours truly, from back in October:

    "I would oppose Black Corton in just about every conceivable circumstance from here on in. He is probably a stone the wrong side of handy for winning two-bit races whilst having a fitness advantage."


    It takes skill to get it this wrong. Envy me.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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  14. #612
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Do you think he can win the RSA?
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

  15. #613
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Honest answer is no, I don't.

    I think it's between Monalee and Presenting Percy. I just think the Irish novice form is generally stronger than the UK novice form, and that Fountains Windfall would probably have exposed Black Corton's limitations (for want of a better word), had he stood-up at Kempton on Boxing Day.

    A bit of me thinks BC has been beating-up some not very great novices, but equally, I don't think I'd be looking to place-lay him in a hurry either. He has track form, and the pair I've mentioned would need to be operating at the top of their game, to see him despatched.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 19th February 2018 at 3:57 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  16. #614
    Senior Member Kauto Abu's Avatar
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    Iíd have Presenting Percy as my lay of the meeting.


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  17. #615
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    I'm not a presenting Percy fan.

    I do like Monalee but they finished in a bit of a blanket the last day. Id have preferred him to be a bit more comprehensive
    Last edited by granger; 19th February 2018 at 4:14 PM.
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

  18. #616
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post

    I do like Monalee but they finished in a bit of a blanket the last day. Id have preferred him to be a bit more comprehensive
    That's surely asking a bit much from the horse. It was his first proper start since November and he's entitled to come on a ton

  19. #617
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    That's surely asking a bit much from the horse. It was his first proper start since November and he's entitled to come on a ton

    Maybe a bit hard on him. I like that he seems to have gears.
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

  20. #618
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kauto Abu View Post
    I’d have Presenting Percy as my lay of the meeting.


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    Can't understand why, KA.

    Clearly has the best novice chasing form in Ireland (imo), has zero stamina concerns, and has already shown he can handle the track.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  21. #619
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    Percy hasn't won a graded chase. His rating is based almost entirely on his handicap win and the placed horses in that race haven't franked the form in any way.
    The older I get the better I was.

  22. #620
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kauto Abu View Post
    I’d have Presenting Percy as my lay of the meeting.


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