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Thread: Novice Chasers 2017/2018

  1. #641
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    What’s for sure is that race will be one to follow i reckon. Monalee is the best novice out there at his fences and I side with Grassy on the reading of the race. It was a tremendous performance given the circumstances.

    I also agree ABP and Dounikos would be the next to take out of the race. I seem to recall ABP jumped into a closing gap at either the last or second last which really halted his momentum. I think it’s Euro who’s been talking up his chances for some time and now I’m sold.

    Where have you heard Dounikos is NH Chase bound DH? He looks the perfect type for that.


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  2. #642
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    Agree. Admirable record but what he’s achieved in small fields is a long way from what will be required in the RSA. Was on the way to defeat by the ill fated Fountains Windfall and previously by Sizing Tennessee when those rivals came down
    Yes, but you seem to be dismissing the chance that he's progressing well with racing.

    I'm not saying he can win. I'm really just saying his chances shouldn't be overlooked. I also quite like the fact that he has accumulated a fair bit of experience along the way and the RSA probably won't be any kind of culture shock to him.

    All that said, I haven't studied the race in detail. I just know that BC's current rating would win an average renewal of the RSA.
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  3. #643
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Hard to discount, BC, but I wonder if he is really “progressing”?

    To me, he seems like a horse who has found his level - and it’s a very smart one - but I’m not entirely convinced there is a stack more improvement in the locker.

    The positives for BC insofar as the RSA is concerned, are that he is self-evidently very smart, he always runs his race, he has track form, he gets on well with his jockey, he jumps and stays, and appears to go on any ground. That ticks aof boxes, but I’d be a wee bit dissapointed, if there weren’t a couple better than him.

    He is just a little uninspiring, imo, and not the kind of horse I’d expect to make a massive impact at G1 level in open company.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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  4. #644
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    What’s for sure is that race will be one to follow i reckon. Monalee is the best novice out there at his fences and I side with Grassy on the reading of the race. It was a tremendous performance given the circumstances.

    I also agree ABP and Dounikos would be the next to take out of the race. I seem to recall ABP jumped into a closing gap at either the last or second last which really halted his momentum. I think it’s Euro who’s been talking up his chances for some time and now I’m sold.

    Where have you heard Dounikos is NH Chase bound DH? He looks the perfect type for that.


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    It was actually Dounikos who jumped into a closing gap over the last fence. Monalee came across him.

    Reagrding Dounikos for the 4miler, just from reading the Market yesterday. Paddy Power cut him to 6/1 NRNB for it which is generally a sign of Irish money. He was then cut across the board with all books and there were whispers that Monbeg Notorious was being held back for the Irish national, leaving the way clear for Dounikos as the main Elliot/Gigi horse for the NHC.

  5. #645
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    P1ssed off that Percy looks sure to go RSA route after I'd backed him at 33/1 win only for the NH chase while he was crossing the line having hosed up at Fairyhouse it dawned on me earlier that it was with 365 and having just checked they're offering me over 5 times my stake back as a cash out.

    Haven't heard from Kelly for while - he's definitely going RSA route isn't he ? He's 40+ to lay on the machine so I wasn't expecting such a nice cash out
    Last edited by wilsonl; 20th February 2018 at 10:53 AM.
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  6. #646
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Looks like quite a weak RSA to me and definitely think Monalee is far less exposed than Percy.

  7. #647
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    The positives for BC insofar as the RSA is concerned, are that he is self-evidently very smart, he always runs his race, he has track form, he gets on well with his jockey, he jumps and stays, and appears to go on any ground. That ticks aof boxes, but I’d be a wee bit dissapointed, if there weren’t a couple better than him.
    I think that's about right.

    As far as 'progressing' goes, his RPR this season are, from oldest to most recent:

    136
    141
    148
    153
    152
    157
    161
    161
    162
    162

    This would suggest he's reaching his plateau for the season but 162 is a pretty sound level.

    Recent RSA winners, pre-race OR ... post-race OR:

    Might Bite 154 / 161
    Blaklion 150 / 154
    Don Poli 156 / 163
    O'Faolains Boy 144 / 156

    BC's current OR is 155 so he is right up there in historical terms.

    Just sayin' innat...
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  8. #648
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    P1ssed off that Percy looks sure to go RSA route after I'd backed him at 33/1 win only for the NH chase while he was crossing the line having hosed up at Fairyhouse it dawned on me earlier that it was with 365 and having just checked they're offering me over 5 times my stake back as a cash out.

    Haven't heard from Kelly for while - he's definitely going RSA route isn't he ? He's 40+ to lay on the machine so I wasn't expecting such a nice cash out
    Cash your money!

  9. #649
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Cash your money!
    I had
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  10. #650
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I think that's about right.

    As far as 'progressing' goes, his RPR this season are, from oldest to most recent:

    136
    141
    148
    153
    152
    157
    161
    161
    162
    162

    This would suggest he's reaching his plateau for the season but 162 is a pretty sound level.

    Recent RSA winners, pre-race OR ... post-race OR:

    Might Bite 154 / 161
    Blaklion 150 / 154
    Don Poli 156 / 163
    O'Faolains Boy 144 / 156

    BC's current OR is 155 so he is right up there in historical terms.

    Just sayin' innat...
    Looking at the racing post it has the following OR's:

    Presenting Percy 157
    Monalee 155

    Not sure if that's their 'Irish Rating' or if it's already been migrated as an official UK rating?

  11. #651
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    Looking at the racing post it has the following OR's:

    Presenting Percy 157
    Monalee 155

    Not sure if that's their 'Irish Rating' or if it's already been migrated as an official UK rating?
    Irish.
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  12. #652
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Just for the sake of the exercise, here are two tables on the RSA.

    The first is the top 20 in order of RPRs, the second the same 20 in order of current ORs.

    The CBO is current best odds (ignoring the useless bookies).

    It might, at a glance, help identify squeaks of value.


    Horse RPR OR CBO
    Black Corton 172 155 9/1
    Mia’s Storm 172* 149 20/1
    Terrefort 172** 151 not quoted
    Ballyoptic 171 150 25/1
    Finian’s Oscar 170 153 25/1
    Presenting Percy 170 157 3/1
    Elegant Escape 169 150 33/1
    Shattered Love 168 143 18/1
    Jury Duty 167 148 25/1
    Rathvinden 167 150 33/1
    Willoughby Court 167 152 16/1
    Monalee 166 155 7/2
    Ms Parfois 165* 146 nq
    Sizing Tennessee 165 147 nq
    Yanworth 165 149 12/1 NR?
    Al Boum Photo 164 153 12/1
    Barney Dwan 164 145 nq
    Benatar 164 149 20/1
    Invitation Only 164 152 12/1
    Snow Falcon 164 149 25/1

    *rating includes mares’ allowance
    **5yo


    Horse RPR OR CBO
    Presenting Percy 170 157 3/1
    Black Corton 172 155 9/1
    Monalee 166 155 7/2
    Finian’s Oscar 170 153 25/1
    Al Boum Photo 164 153 12/1
    Willoughby Court 167 152 16/1
    Invitation Only 164 152 12/1
    Terrefort 172** 151 not quoted
    Ballyoptic 171 150 25/1
    Elegant Escape 169 150 33/1
    Rathvinden 167 150 33/1
    Mia’s Storm 172* 149 20/1
    Yanworth 165 149 12/1 NR?
    Benatar 164 149 20/1
    Snow Falcon 164 149 25/1
    Jury Duty 167 148 25/1
    Sizing Tennessee 165 147 nq
    Ms Parfois 165* 146 nq
    Barney Dwan 164 145 nq
    Shattered Love 168 143 18/1
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 20th February 2018 at 1:19 PM.
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  14. #653
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    I often ignore official ratings for novices unless, like Presenting Percy, they've posted the figure in a reliable handicap.

    The argument about him having being found out in the past when stepping up from handicap to grade one company doesn't concern me because with the exception of Monalee I don't foresee many of those that are likely to run contesting grade ones next season.
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  15. #654
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Irish.
    And the fact that they're entered in grade 1 festival novice chases, as opposed to handicaps, does the UK handicapper still have to give them an 'official' UK rating before they run at the festival?

    And if so, how likely are those UK ratings going to differ from their current official Irish rating - from historical point of view?

    I know the UK handicapper always adds a few lbs as standard to any Irish horse coming over to the festival to compete in a handicap, just not sure on the above scenario as it's not something I've ever looked at before.

  16. #655
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I think ratings from Grade 1s in Ireland are agreed by both handicappers.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  17. #656
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Just for the sake of the exercise, here are two tables on the RSA.

    The first is the top 20 in order of RPRs, the second the same 20 in order of current ORs.

    The CBO is current best odds (ignoring the useless bookies).

    It might, at a glance, help identify squeaks of value.


    Horse RPR OR CBO
    Black Corton 172 155 9/1
    Mia’s Storm 172* 149 20/1
    Terrefort 172** 151 not quoted
    Ballyoptic 171 150 25/1
    Finian’s Oscar 170 153 25/1
    Presenting Percy 170 157 3/1
    Elegant Escape 169 150 33/1
    Shattered Love 168 143 18/1
    Jury Duty 167 148 25/1
    Rathvinden 167 150 33/1
    Willoughby Court 167 152 16/1
    Monalee 166 155 7/2
    Ms Parfois 165* 146 nq
    Sizing Tennessee 165 147 nq
    Yanworth 165 149 12/1 NR?
    Al Boum Photo 164 153 12/1
    Barney Dwan 164 145 nq
    Benatar 164 149 20/1
    Invitation Only 164 152 12/1
    Snow Falcon 164 149 25/1

    *rating includes mares’ allowance
    **5yo


    Horse RPR OR CBO
    Presenting Percy 170 157 3/1
    Black Corton 172 155 9/1
    Monalee 166 155 7/2
    Finian’s Oscar 170 153 25/1
    Al Boum Photo 164 153 12/1
    Willoughby Court 167 152 16/1
    Invitation Only 164 152 12/1
    Terrefort 172** 151 not quoted
    Ballyoptic 171 150 25/1
    Elegant Escape 169 150 33/1
    Rathvinden 167 150 33/1
    Mia’s Storm 172* 149 20/1
    Yanworth 165 149 12/1 NR?
    Benatar 164 149 20/1
    Snow Falcon 164 149 25/1
    Jury Duty 167 148 25/1
    Sizing Tennessee 165 147 nq
    Ms Parfois 165* 146 nq
    Barney Dwan 164 145 nq
    Shattered Love 168 143 18/1
    No Monbeg Notorious (152) or Dounikos (151) on either list DO ?

  18. #657
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I think ratings from Grade 1s in Ireland are agreed by both handicappers.
    So no change then? If the RSA was tomorrow PP's official mark would be 157 for that race in the UK ratings history books?

  19. #658
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    P1ssed off that Percy looks sure to go RSA route after I'd backed him at 33/1 win only for the NH chase while he was crossing the line having hosed up at Fairyhouse it dawned on me earlier that it was with 365 and having just checked they're offering me over 5 times my stake back as a cash out.
    I had £50 at 33/1 for the NH Chase, with no NRNB concession, no Cash-Out option, and no hope of seeing a fu*cking sheckel back.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  20. #659
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    No Monbeg Notorious (152) or Dounikos (151) on either list DO ?
    It does what it says on the tin, DH

    The list is the top 20 on RPRs, then the same 20 listed by ORs.

    The RP site doesn't list Irish ORs so I had to look them up for myself.
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  21. #660
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    Presenting Percy has the Davy Factor, I imagine DR has managed his racing programme all season .
    Remember last year he won on Feb 25 to guarantee a place in Pertemps and got 16 pound hike in ratings, still managing to win, easily.
    A bit like Forgive N Forget all those years ago but they don't have to change jockeys in RSA to get a more experienced pilot .
    His run last Saturday will have educated him no end , as did his hurdles run to smarten his thinking when jumping.
    As I posted previously, he was far too good a horse for Davy to waste running in NH Chase.
    Were I a punter I would consider him the bet of the Festival. ( but I am not !!!)

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