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Thread: Clockwatchers' Corner

  1. #61
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I watched the replay of his last run this morning. It was quite a taking performance but so was that of the overnight fav Omran at Newcastle.

    I also worry about there being only 7 days between his runs, as mentioned earlier in the thread.

    We'll see.
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  2. #62
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Never looked like winning.
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  3. #63
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm getting mixed messages regarding the times at Newmarket last Saturday.

    Using my normal calcs, I'm getting the staying handicap won by Jaameh working out as by far the fastest [relatively speaking] race on the card.

    Using the published RP standards, I'm getting the race won by Culturati as the fastest but not by as much.

    Anyone else got any similar observations?

    The form book says Juanito Chico "got going too late". It also says it did best of those who were drawn low. I suspect these factors combined with the short gap in time since its last run resulted in a below-par performance but I don't think he'd have got near the winner on the day even if he'd run as well as I'd expected. The winner, Parfait, was another Godolphin 'special' and has been raised 15lbs for his impressive win.

    Clouds and silver linings: Juanito Chico will hopefully go off longer than he should next time.

    Incidentally, if I'm right, Jaameh (and runner-up Byron Flyer) remain well handicapped after their 5lbs and 3lbs rises.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 15th June 2017 at 8:59 AM.
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  5. #64
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    My view;
    Like many 'big figure' horses Juanito Chico probably needs a strong pace to haul the field along. The winner was allowed an easy lead, and none of those behind registered a worthwhile t/s figure, which tellls its own story.
    Imho, JC will justify your original appraisal sometime soon, but off a stronger pace, or up a furlong on distamce.

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  7. #65
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    Ekhtiyaar (3.30Y) ran a t/s figure of 93 @ Newmarker latest, and is a confident bet on today's more suitable ground.

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  9. #66
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I hadn't done that meeting so checked it out. It is certainly the fastest race on the card but I'm not convinced it's entirely reliable.

    As I said elsewhere, it often takes time to get over a big run and the first three were close up and miles clear. The runner-up has since been hammered but that's excusable for that reason. However, the well-beaten hroses have been beaten just as far in lesser races.

    Good luck, reet. I'm happy to let it go at a shortish price.

    In the same race, Wahash represents the Juanito Chico race and I've put a saver on him but the main bet is Golden Apollo. I haven't checked his performance against the clock but he was a very impressive wide-margin winner the other day and his penalty (6lbs for a very easy five-length margin) looks close to negligible.
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  10. #67
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Black Trilby was the other involved in Juanito Chico's race. He was in front a stride after the line at Sandown a minute ago so hopes for that form are enhanced to a degree.
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  11. #68
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    ... but the main bet is Golden Apollo. I haven't checked his performance against the clock but he was a very impressive wide-margin winner the other day and his penalty (6lbs for a very easy five-length margin) looks close to negligible.

    A winner at last!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Well deserved mate.

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    Vwd do

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    Well done DO


  16. #72
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    Nice one, DO. Fav ran like a drain.

  17. #73
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Thanks all.

    I'm usually happy just to put a line through a really bad run. There's usually a reason for it.

    Yesterday was a pretty good illustration of how times can mislead. We had Black Trilby run well but Wahash and Ekhtiyaar run badly. I wish I knew why it happens.

    About 20 years ago I had an article published in the Handicap Book/ Update explaining how I'm much happier relying on form rather than time. It was based on painful betting experience but every now and again a really good time performance will just strike you as very solid.

    To be honest, I haven't really come across such a performance this season apart from - maybe - Winter in the 1000 Guineas.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 18th June 2017 at 10:30 AM.
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  18. #74
    Senior Member MrFrisk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'm getting mixed messages regarding the times at Newmarket last Saturday.

    Using my normal calcs, I'm getting the staying handicap won by Jaameh working out as by far the fastest [relatively speaking] race on the card.

    Using the published RP standards, I'm getting the race won by Culturati as the fastest but not by as much.

    Anyone else got any similar observations?

    The form book says Juanito Chico "got going too late". It also says it did best of those who were drawn low. I suspect these factors combined with the short gap in time since its last run resulted in a below-par performance but I don't think he'd have got near the winner on the day even if he'd run as well as I'd expected. The winner, Parfait, was another Godolphin 'special' and has been raised 15lbs for his impressive win.

    Clouds and silver linings: Juanito Chico will hopefully go off longer than he should next time.

    Incidentally, if I'm right, Jaameh (and runner-up Byron Flyer) remain well handicapped after their 5lbs and 3lbs rises.
    I've got Jaameh running a monster speed figure too. It'll be interesting to see if he takes up his entry in the Plate this weekend.

  19. #75
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    As mentioned on the Plate thread, I'm on Natural Scenery but have saved on Jaameh for the above reasons.

    I also got tracker alerts for Wahash (Chester 2.55) and Emenem (York 3.05). I won't be 'doing' those races but stuck them on an ew double. Pure laziness but also sickness insurance!
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  20. #76
    Senior Member MrFrisk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    As mentioned on the Plate thread, I'm on Natural Scenery but have saved on Jaameh for the above reasons.

    I also got tracker alerts for Wahash (Chester 2.55) and Emenem (York 3.05). I won't be 'doing' those races but stuck them on an ew double. Pure laziness but also sickness insurance!
    I've had a few flash up on my tracker today. Had a decent bet on Jaameh and I've done E/W trebles to tiny stakes for a bit of interest.

    Moonraker 1:50 Newcastle, Winning Ways 3:15 Newmarket, Jaameh 3:30 Newcastle & Mont Kiara 4:50 York

  21. #77
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I also got tracker alerts for Wahash (Chester 2.55) and Emenem (York 3.05). I won't be 'doing' those races but stuck them on an ew double. Pure laziness but also sickness insurance!
    Wahash was never put in the race and Emenem was trying but was maybe intimidated by the winning jockey's whip in the final furlong.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. #78
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post

    Wednesday

    With Gunmetal taken as providing the key, Dancing Breeze (88/91) and Natavia (86/89) in the 4.45 and Middle Kingdom (99/94) and Euginio (107/102) in the 5.20 (as mentioned by Mr Frisk) have put up the best times relative to their class.
    Tracker alert for today: Euginio (San 4.00). It's only 5/2 and I haven't done the race but I'll give it a pop. I'm just concerned that since it's not been seen since the Craven meeting today might be a prep for something in the near future.
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  23. #79
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Strange tactical ride but did the business. Sh1te price and R4s so no big money made but another winner for the tracked horses.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  24. #80
    Senior Member MrFrisk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Strange tactical ride but did the business. Sh1te price and R4s so no big money made but another winner for the tracked horses.
    Always nice to see a decent time confirmed by a win next time out.

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