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Thread: Clockwatchers' Corner

  1. #41
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    I think we may have seen a very special horse in Harry Angel at Haydock.

    The 5f race won by Priceless looked to be run largely in line with the form figures and the going allowance ties up well with the good 3yo handicap won by the Johnston horse. However, despite being just a 3yo, Harry Angel has run no less than 26lbs faster.

    It would be dangerous to take that at face vale as it would mean the placed horses behind Harry Angel would also be faster than Priceless – they may well be but I think it would be dangerous to assume so at this stage – but Harry won in sensationally impressive fashion and if he’s got more to come he will be very hard to beat, certainly against his own age group.

    I don’t have a time figure for Caravaggio’s reappearance run but he too was sensational at Ascot last season. These two look miles ahead of anything else on the 3yo sprinting scene.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  4. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Emenem entered in the opening race on Derby day.
    I'll take DO's figures on trust, as I can see little support from other clockers.
    From a form perspective, I'd suggest he'll need a strong pace - even at this trip - and it's not easy to see where it'll come from. Hopefully the Johnston horse will be on a going day.
    Good luck to all.

  5. #43
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    To be honest I was tempted to leave the race alone but ended up going in the opposite direction and spread a double-strength bet on this morning. I'm kicking myself a bit, though, as I could easily have got 8/1 last night.

    Although the horses that finished in the first half-dozen or so have been well beaten next time, those further back have been coming out and running very well indeed. It may be that the close-up beaten horses need a bit of time to come back to themselves. We'll see. After Brorocco yesterday I need a change of luck.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  6. #44
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    Jesus how unlucky was Emenem there?

  7. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Emenem entered in the opening race on Derby day.
    Nearly Lee! Are you on course today? I know its your local track.

  8. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by BennyB View Post
    Jesus how unlucky was Emenem there?
    Don't know about that, but he could have seriously injured two others and their horses. Norton's paid the price though and misses first four days of Royal Ascot as part of his suspension.

    The Stewards found Norton in breach of Rule (B)54.1 and guilty of careless riding in that he had switched left-handed, causing significant interference to HAJAJ (IRE), which was taken off its intended line and had to be checked by Powell, and in turn caused MISTER BLUE SKY (IRE), to have to be checked. They suspended him for 7 days as follows: Saturday 17, Sunday 18, Monday 19, Tuesday 20, Wednesday 21, Thursday 22 and Friday 23 June 2017.

  9. #47
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    Couldn't they have suspended him from a noose?
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  10. #48
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    Share the sentiment,DO.
    "Do not think the moment was imagined, do not think of strategies like this." Leonard Cohen

  11. #49
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    Unlucky. DO. Nowt wrong with your figures, though.

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  13. #50
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    ty for this guys and desert orchid a great read and lots of horses to come luck will change soon i am sure

  14. #51
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    I won't get a close look at the times until midweek but I've played about with some figures.

    There's a chance the Derby a stronger race than I've been giving it credit for but it would rely upon other times on the day being reliable and one or two of the races being true-run.

    Best case scenario: Wings Of Eagles could be a 125 horse, which would be reassuring for a Derby.

    Worst case scenario: It's maybe 118 (on a par with Oath)

    The chances are that it's somewhere in between.

    I suspect there's been a pace collapse in the Dash, exaggerating Dark Shot's finishing effort.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 4th June 2017 at 2:18 PM.
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  15. #52
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    I've played around a bit more with the figures for the Derby meeting.

    It's now quite clear that the Derby ended up a better race either than I'd anticipated or than I'd immediately thought post-race.

    It's impossible to get a definite handle on the form but I'm looking at 123 for Wings Of Eagles based on a balance of form and times, the times not being entirely reliable on their own as the fastest races were the 3yo ones, which never has me in a comfort zone.

    Still, 123 is perfectly respectable and there has to be a chance that the winner will go on from here given the fast time and the fact that it was clearly not a fluke win. I just wonder if Pour Moi will be the type to impart finishing strength into his progeny.

    Laugh Aloud has run 8lbs faster than Sovereign Debt despite winning much more comfortably in what appears to have been a very true-run race.

    The time for the Dash doesn't live up to the form, hence my contention that they went too fast and the pace collapsed. Nevertheless, Dark Shot posted an improved rating and a 2lbs rise might not be insuperable going forward.

    If there is one to take forward from the meeting, it is perhaps Juanito Chico, winner of the closing 7f handicap for 3yos on the Friday. The winner of the previous race over C&D, a Listed race, went up to 108, yet Juanito Chico was only 3lbs slower. That is not to say that I believe the latter is a 105 horse - yet - but I do believe his new mark of 87 under-rates him enough for him to follow up at some stage. He goes into the tracker.

    Oaks winner Enable also looks fast but I think everybody saw that and she won't be under the radar next time with her new rating of 122. Despite being a year younger and entitled to 15lbs wfa should they meet at this time of year, she was only 6lbs slower than Highland Reel's Coronation Cup.

    Enable's 122 puts her 3lbs ahead of Wings Of Eagles's new rating of 119 and she'd get the gender allowance on top of that.

    It also looks like the Woodcote winner, De Bruyne Horse, has posted a mark into the 90s, which is smart for the time of year but it isn't unusual for something to post 100+ at Royal Ascot regardless of they may have done beforehand.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 7th June 2017 at 2:28 PM.
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  17. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've played around a bit more with the figures for the Derby meeting.

    It's now quite clear that the Derby ended up a better race either than I'd anticipated or than I'd immediately thought post-race.

    It's impossible to get a definite handle on the form but I'm looking at 123 for Wings Of Eagles based on a balance of form and times, the times not being entirely reliable on their own as the fastest races were the 3yo ones, which never has me in a comfort zone.



    Still, 123 is perfectly respectable and there has to be a chance that the winner will go on from here given the fast time and the fact that it was clearly not a fluke win. I just wonder if Pour Moi will be the type to impart finishing strength into his progeny.
    I'd take the view that it was something of a fluke result owing to the uneven pace, and the winner would be unlikely to confirm the form, with the 2nd or 3rd, in all but an all-out cavalry charge over a similar distance.
    As the Vase indicated, WofE is a stayer, pure and simple.

  18. #54
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    WOE was certainly the most stamina-laden runner in the race on SteveM's dosage figures and it was a true-run race overall.

    Simon Rowlands says in his Timeform Sectional Debrief:

    But it would be wrong to imagine that Wings of Eagles was greatly flattered.

    Those who think that prominent-racers need to be marked up greatly in this year’s Derby should presumably be rating Douglas MacArthur – clear 3f out and beaten less than 5 lengths – as the best horse in it. Tried and trusted sectional upgrading methodology has him just behind fourth-placed Eminent, and it has Wings of Eagles a deserving winner. That makes more intuitive sense.

    One thing we also know is that there was not a massive pace collapse in the final furlong, as some have suggested. Wings of Eagles ran it in about 11.65s – which is fast – Cliffs of Moher and Cracksman in about 12.2s
    My own view was that although the pace was strong early the two tearaways got breathers through the middle third. I can accept that the term 'uneven pace' could apply to them but not the rest of the field.

    At this stage I'd be prepared to suggest that WOE is very much the one to beat in the St Leger and he strikes me as a potential Yeats as far as the Gold Cup is concerned.

    By the way, that 11.65s for the final furlong is fast right enough considering Enable ran it in 12.2s. The standard time for a lot of the 5f courses in the country is 60s or more and the winner of the Dash averaged 10.98s per furlong.


    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 8th June 2017 at 9:31 AM.
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  19. #55
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    That 11.65 final furlong is clear indication that the pace slowed somewhere in an earlier 'section'. The pace picked up again when Venice Beach moved into a 'strategic position' turning in, and most of the field ran strong times from that point (see SR's addendum at the bottom of his figures).
    Agree the winner is likely a thorough stayer and believe he'll be pushed to live up to your, or SR's, rating in any less of a test than Saturday's turned out to be.

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  21. #56
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    As an aside, does anyone know anything of the Irish sectionals, thst were supposed to begin on Jan 1 this year?

  22. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    As an aside, does anyone know anything of the Irish sectionals, thst were supposed to begin on Jan 1 this year?
    Good question

  23. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    If there is one to take forward from the meeting, it is perhaps Juanito Chico, winner of the closing 7f handicap for 3yos on the Friday. The winner of the previous race over C&D, a Listed race, went up to 108, yet Juanito Chico was only 3lbs slower. That is not to say that I believe the latter is a 105 horse - yet - but I do believe his new mark of 87 under-rates him enough for him to follow up at some stage. He goes into the tracker.
    Declared at NWM tomorrow - just got the alert through. Only 4/1 though and I won't have time to check the whole race so I might leave it.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  24. #59
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Nw 11/4 in a place bit of 7/2 still available....some one agrees with you :0)
    Formely Fist of Fury

  25. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Declared at NWM tomorrow - just got the alert through. Only 4/1 though and I won't have time to check the whole race so I might leave it.
    Can't see anything lurking that's likely to run better & have taken the 7/2.
    Good luck to this ship, and all who sail in her.

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