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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #721
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Good luck Marb.

    I'm at work on my break so can't post reasoning atm but will try to at some point although it's not that hard to figure out. In what could turn out to be the real national trial at the weekend over at Ascot I can't help but feel Carole's Destrier has and outstanding chance. 33/1 with a few firms and ive split a rather tusky bet across a couple of those.

    Have a look see what you think fellas and I'll post my reasoning when I get chance.
    Cheers Danny yep will have a look a bit later.

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  3. #722
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    Apologies on that one today.

    Horse clearly wanted to go-on but jockey took a pull for a mile as if he was riding Frankel!

    Should have let the horse bowl along, imho.
    Last edited by Marble; 14th February 2018 at 5:30 PM.

  4. #723
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    No problem marb; had a small ew on it but then noticed a steamer in the race that won!

  5. #724
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    Fontwell 3.45 Goldslinger 28/1 – His penultimate hurdle race last February when finishing fifth in a class 3 Novice hurdle at Newbury, I think is the best piece of form in the race. 10 runner race, the horse that finished,
    10th came out and won 2 and finished 2nd in his next 4 races.
    9th won next time out
    8th won next time out beating none other than Next Destination in a bumper at Punchestown.
    7th finished 2nd three times in his next 6 races.
    6th let the form down
    5th the selection was well btn next time out on heavy ground but that race came only two weeks after his respectable effort in this race and he had been on the go all season on the flat.
    2nd, 3rd & 4th won next time out and the winner was High Bridge who finished 9th in the Supreme and now rated 147.
    The select has since gone on to run on the flat and all weather but changed trainer from Dean Ivory to Gary Moore at the beginning of November. Gary Moore has two in the race and on jockey bookings my selection is the second string. I will have a minimum e/way unless a gamble develops as new trainer may have a nicely handicapped one?
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  7. #725
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Good luck Marb.

    I'm at work on my break so can't post reasoning atm but will try to at some point although it's not that hard to figure out. In what could turn out to be the real national trial at the weekend over at Ascot I can't help but feel Carole's Destrier has and outstanding chance. 33/1 with a few firms and ive split a rather tusky bet across a couple of those.

    Have a look see what you think fellas and I'll post my reasoning when I get chance.
    I've written a bit for my place so some parts again won't apply but it covers my thoughts on CD's chances.

    Yeah think I might have dropped a bollock with this race. But we shall see.

    The basic premise of the Carols Destrier bet is based around whether you believe this seasons form is genuine efforts or whether its a ploy to get weighted for the National. If you looked back to the Peter Marsh thread when originally Carol's and VLR were entered for it I actually said I look forward to seeing them both run down the track somewhere.

    The thing that originally set alarm bells ringing with CD was the weakness in the betting in the Hennessy. He shouldn't have been going off at an Sp of 33/1. If you take into consideration that literally the whole market shrinks close to the off in these big Saturday Handicaps especially where you have 5 or 6 places then normally a 50/1 shot early morning would be trimmed to and SP of 33/1 regardless of anything else. Carol who'd finished second in the race the year before from a 7lb higher mark to a horse Native River who went on to do wonders, even though higher in the handicap was still weighted to hold up form with a lot of those who were much shorter in the betting. Common sense would have told you no bookie would really want to be laying 6 places at 33/1. Carols was in close attendance turning for home and having stayed on strongly the previous year and having won over trips in excess of 3m2F one would of expected at least that he'd stay on for a place from that position. However he'd gradually weakened to a well beaten 8th. Given the drift and the way he ran although having won fresh in the past it seemed to me that they must of left plenty to work on this time around and he had another target in mind I.e the Grand National.

    I fully expected Carols to get beat on that basis when turning up in the Peter Marsh and he duly obliged being pulled up half way around. The Handicapper has in my view been a bit to quick in his response to lower Carols being lowered 8lb for two efforts one which I believe you can put a line through Heavy ground at Haydock and the other where the betting and the run itself just smacked of lacking match fitness. Carole now finds himself 2lb lower than a mark of which he was 2nd to Native river in the Hennessy and although that is quite a while ago in terms of time its only actually 4 runs ago. If you can take that drop in context of the drop VLR has received he's been dropped 4lb for two efforts which showed even less promise and have been truly awful. I'm fairly sure Phil Smith has took one look at him and thought I'll give you a bit but I'm not falling for that game Mr Pipe.

    VDR's run in the Grand National trial last term was epic not just in terms of collateral form lines but in terms of figures as well. It might be viewed that he didn't stay in the big one itself and that could be true although I'd suggest he may have left his race behind in the trial given how hard a race it was. I would expect a lot better showing from him some time soon and if you can get on with Skybet I believe the 20/1 for this is good value although going stick readings of 5.0 would worry me as I firmly believe he's a better horse on better ground but the same would be said for Carol who want anymore rain. That said though its hard sometimes to realise whether its the ground that is effecting these types or the possible fact that they have been running with the handbrake applied on these occasions. Its also difficult to tell the difference between Heavy at Haydock and Heavy at Ascot.

    So with Carols I'm thinking I shouldn't have bothered taking the risk ante-post as the theory is that under the radar I doubt there will be much of a queue to get involved so I should have probably waited until the day. I expected the field to cut up quite badly which also offered up some value. I thought a couple including VLR would head to the GN trial at Haydock and there is the old racing post chase at Kempton next week which will offer a similar race on better ground for more money so I thought a fair few might head off there. Carol won what will probably be a lot weaker version of this race 3 years ago which again is a rather historical piece of form to be using he won by 8L off a mark 4lb lower than what he will race off on Saturday. I wouldn't take anything from that really other than if your looking for a horse to revitalise its form then its good to see it going back to a course its run well at previously. Saturday could end up being quite a slog and with winning form over 3m5F off the same mark of 146 you'd think he won't be lacking in the stamina department at least. There are quite a few I feel amongst the line up who the handicapper probably has in his grip and CD could have been amongst those but may he's just let this one slip a bit. There are plenty of dangers I really like Gold present but not at the prices and Minella Daddy is one of interest also. Venetias, Tenor Nivernais is a another having won this freakishly by 30 lengths last year and somehow ends up here from the same mark hence I've had a saver on this one at 14's or 16's ? can't remember.

    Overall opinion though Carole's Destrier is probably an all or nothing shot really if the theory is correct then he will go close if its not and its a horse who has been trying but is just rapidly on the downgrade then he'll probably pull up.

    At 33/1 though I don't mind these sort of bets although admittedly I've probably got a bit over excited initially and over bet its chances and I probably didn't need to take the Ante-post risk element of the bet as the price or bigger may well be available on the day.

    I'd say I'd learn from the mistake but evidence points towards the fact I don't. Curse my itchy trigger finger !
    Last edited by Danny; 16th February 2018 at 9:10 AM.
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    Well I got one thing right the field certainly cut up haha. Nothing better than waking to a giant kick in the knackers. I had that feeling I'd messed up with this one and it proved to be.
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    Have backed Vivas 25/1 generally in the handicap hurdle at Ascot tomorrow. Managed a well beaten 5th behind Jenkins over this CD lto. Was badly hampered in the process and dropped back to last which wasn't a good place to be. It was also notable that the first 4 home on that occasion were widest on the course throughout and despite being hampered he's done the best of anything that raced nearer the inside. A clear run tomorrow could see him run well in a race that doesn't look as strong and he's also tried in first time pieces.
    Last edited by Danny; 16th February 2018 at 8:51 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by moehat View Post
    Thanks marb; might have missed that one [I back all of Adams horses, especially if he's riding for Kirby]...
    They team up for one today - Top Ville Ben in the 3:50 at Haydock.

    Forgive him the last run, because before that he was progressive, did win on heavy so will love the ground.

    He doesn't technically qualify for this thread as he's 12/1 but I remembered Moehat's comment so posted this anyway.

    Strongest fancy of the day for me.
    Last edited by Marble; 17th February 2018 at 12:22 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Have backed Vivas 25/1 generally in the handicap hurdle at Ascot tomorrow. Managed a well beaten 5th behind Jenkins over this CD lto. Was badly hampered in the process and dropped back to last which wasn't a good place to be. It was also notable that the first 4 home on that occasion were widest on the course throughout and despite being hampered he's done the best of anything that raced nearer the inside. A clear run tomorrow could see him run well in a race that doesn't look as strong and he's also tried in first time pieces.
    Plenty of blue about Vivas this morning but my sole longshot for today is in the same race.

    Court Minstrel is top-rated on my own figures so I really need to back him at 25/1 although there is one in the race I've also backed as a strong possibility to improve past him.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Gowran Park 4.20 Letter Of Credit 25/1 Bet365 - On a line through Icanstay the selection has the beating of fav & 2nd fav - is highest rated on RPR's - the negative is he is 13yo.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    7.15 Kempton Yeah Baby Yeah - 20/1 with Corals, Laddies and Paddys.

    Just chancing this one with a decent draw and the first time tongue tie. May need a class drop before it shows best but off a light weight for Josie Gordon I think there are worse bets on the card.

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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Haydock 4.15 Donnas Diamond 20/1 StanJames - a good 4th over c/d/& going l/t/o in a better race - now 4lb lower. However hasn't raced for over a year.
    DING DONG just had to back it again today - just become my favourite horse
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    DING DONG just had to back it again today - just become my favourite horse
    Nice one. I didn’t back it last time but made no such mistake today. Probably wouldn’t have done but for your previous post so thanks for that


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  21. #734
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Court Minstrel is top-rated on my own figures so I really need to back him at 25/1 although there is one in the race I've also backed as a strong possibility to improve past him.
    I'm not sure I'll ever get my head round Evan Williams's insistence that his horses have to be waited with out of their ground. I'm presuming it's a case of them not trying and it they are it's a dangerous game to play unless the pace up front is over-fast.

    The early mistake wouldn't have helped at all (cost him at least three lengths and momentum) and he was probably being looked after from then on.

    My other bet was Friday Night Light (10/1) who got a terrific ride from Scu and was only beaten by a proper job. I'm satisfied that I got a real run for my money from him.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Have backed Vivas 25/1 generally in the handicap hurdle at Ascot tomorrow. Managed a well beaten 5th behind Jenkins over this CD lto. Was badly hampered in the process and dropped back to last which wasn't a good place to be. It was also notable that the first 4 home on that occasion were widest on the course throughout and despite being hampered he's done the best of anything that raced nearer the inside. A clear run tomorrow could see him run well in a race that doesn't look as strong and he's also tried in first time pieces.
    Well done Danny nice place.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Cheers mate bit gutted as I've backed Le Patriote who I was raving about the other week and had the 2 in a decent fc. Seen as Mo' was fancying the second I think I should have tried a bit of a t/c as I normally would but didn't bother this time. Still its saved me from a complete blood bath and puts me up on the day so can't ask for more than that really.
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    Shock horror; I thought you'd said Ding Ding had won again and I hadn't backed it! Thankfully I did back Donnas Diamond last night but that was probably because I tend to get it mixed up with Jennies Jewel who I always back!

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    [QUOTE=swedish chef;695968]DING DONG just had to back it again today - just become my favourite horse [/QUOTE

    Tbh mate I wanted to take on Agrapart as did Des and I tried to combi fc's against him and felt a little hard done to as Boite fell and No Hasslehoff fluffed the last and those were the 2 I'd used with Donna's. Owes me nothing as it saved my day last time you put it up and glad you've kept the faith today ..what a run !
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    7.15 Kempton Yeah Baby Yeah - 20/1 with Corals, Laddies and Paddys.

    Just chancing this one with a decent draw and the first time tongue tie. May need a class drop before it shows best but off a light weight for Josie Gordon I think there are worse bets on the card.
    Cracking effort Dan!
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    Cheers Danny, good to uphold the strong form of those who have contributed to the thread of late. Made a couple of iffy shouts recently so hopefully I've turned a bit of a corner.

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