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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #461
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    I certainly think he's capable of running to 160 around here
    Yes, that's around where I have him too, which is why I have serious doubts about his winning. But then I suspect you have similar doubts. If I'm reading it correctly, you're not really harbouring hopes of the win? Either way, the returns to layout are substantial and fully justified the punt. Well done regardless and I'll be cheering for him as loudly as anyone if he's in with a chance!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  3. #462
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    Yeah that's my thoughts Des I struggle to see what he can do with Might bite and Whisper tbh but Might Bite could be a help to him factoring in the places. I don't think they will be hanging about here with the way Might Bite and Bristol go about their business. Anything that holds any serious intent of challenging Might Bite for the win has to try and get within range at some point and in doing so probably compromises their chances of placing. Not sure I'm explaining that clearly but in trying to beat Might Bite they may well end up finishing on pogo sticks (having been pushed too hard early) and it could be set up for something like Double Shuffle who is a strong stayer to run through beaten horses for minor honours.

    Probably clutching at straws but in this situation that's the best I can do.
    Last edited by Danny; 18th December 2017 at 12:25 PM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  4. #463
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    Looking like I won't even get a run for my money. Entered up for Saturday and gone walkies on the machine


    Live by the sword, die by the sword I suppose.

    Back to the drawing board.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  5. #464
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Today's qualifiers:

    Asc 3.00 - Bigbadjohn and Ptit Zig, both 25/1

    Prior to returning to chasing last time against Top Notch, Ptit Zig had been racing over hurdles since unseating in the race won by Triolo D’Alene at Kempton almost two years ago having previously failed by 1¾ lengths to concede 5lbs to Vautour here. It’s a bit of a leap of faith in Nicholls and Twiston-Davies but he probably shouldn’t be 25/1 for this race so is worth a small saver. Bigbadjohn is probably riskier but he’s a winner of a Flintham which, although substandard, is still working out.

    Asc 3.35 - Fergall 33/1 and Evening Hush 100/1

    I’ll have some sickness insurance on Fergall and Evening Hush. The latter now owes me but I wouldn’t be surprised if she were being laid out for the Schweppes while Fergall was the only one to give John Constable a race in the Swinton prior to tipping up two out after going clear probably a wee bit too soon. The handicapper has left him alone for that. Had he fallen at the last he’d probably have gone up about seven pounds since the winner went up no fewer than 16lbs.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    I threw a tenner each way at Go West Young Man at 33/1-stranger things have happened at this meeting.

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  8. #466
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Ascot 3:35 Top Othe Ra 50/1.
    Most interested they're sending him over for this. Could be to get a better H'Cap Mark with festival in mind, but I've taken a chance today at a big price. Having only won once over hurdles in 5 years he's now won 4 times in the past 6 months. 2 of those big handicaps. Not sure exactly what clicked recently, but I was impressed with his win 2/3 runs ago and marked him down as one that could win another nice H'Cap pot. Hopefully today is the day. Each way 4 places at 50/1 or 5 places 40/1.

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  10. #467
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Looking like I won't even get a run for my money. Entered up for Saturday and gone walkies on the machine


    Live by the sword, die by the sword I suppose.

    Back to the drawing board.
    Well he's made the final line up. I fly out tomorrow so doubt I'll be posting much until the New year. Have a good Christmas and all that shizzle lads and I'll see you on the other side.

    Be lucky
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  11. #468
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    If you are going to pick two selection's in a race then you are cutting the prices in half and in most cases; below 20/1 (Dutching) just saying...

  12. #469
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    If you are going to pick two selection's in a race then you are cutting the prices in half and in most cases; below 20/1 (Dutching) just saying...
    If you're measuring success in terms of return to outlay, yes.

    But that's not the aim. The aim is to identify 20/1+ shots that really should be a lot shorter in the betting. If there happens to be more than one in the race so be it. Often the bigger and more valuable the race, the more likely that something is under the radar at a big price.

    More often than not the ones I post here are not my main bets in the race.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  13. #470
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Wrote this for my place a bit of a daft one and possibly neither will make the final line ups but thought I'd post it up anyway as I at least think there is an angle to be worked in the King George even if I'm on a complete boat.

    Crazy Antepost E/w doubles

    I wasn't really going to bother posting these up but thought if ever some miracle occurs where I actually pull one off I'd like it documented. So the only rules are both selections must be huge prices I personally like to aim for at least 33/1 for each selection as for a £10/ew double it pays over 10k if successful. It might seem like a fruitless task as its fairly impossible to land one never mind two such bets but 2 places at those prices pays over £800 quid which is enough for another 40 attempts. I think in the main its a little easier to do after Christmas when you have Cheltenham and Aintree coming up and plenty of AP markets to go at. I suppose really they don't even have to be ante post bets but for now that's what I'll go with. I have to admit I don't think this first effort will be one of my more productive ones but conclusions were reached after a disgracefully boring family party and plenty of booze.

    Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Guitar Pete 33/1 4 places 1/4 Bet365

    I quite fancied him to run a big race in the Paddy Power and he was quite well supported in the market to do so. However I firstly thought the ground was really against him on the day and in running he was hampered badly ( losing probably 15-20 lengths ) so his chance had passed. Although he did still manage to finish ninth in a bunch with Foxtail hill and Double treasure. This race can cut up quite badly and is usually a weaker version than the PP and I figure if getting better ground (can't be much worse than that day) and a clear run he stands a chance of being thereabouts.

    King George IV Chase Double Shuffle 66/1 3 places 1/5 Bet365

    Madness I hear you cry ! That's exactly what I said when I read Tom George suggesting this as the target should the ground not be too soft. However Tom George knows the time of day when it comes to this event as Nacarat used to run some crackers in it and he too went a similar path after running in the same Handicap as Double shuffle ran in last year. It was Double shuffles 10th chase start and was running off 149 he made a mistake 3 out that should of taken him out of the race but he battled back gamely for 2nd he was raised 2lb for doing so. I think its quite possible that without that mistake he'd have won and been put up to around 156. That still really would leave him with a stone to find to win this and that sort of improvement would rarely be found with a horse with so many runs under his belt. However he has only had 2 starts at 3 miles and both around Kempton. Winning the handicap at the Christmas meeting and then that second in what used to be the racing post chase. Most of his time has been spent at 2m4f which just too short for him. It still sounds a bit far fetched but I can at least see him running up to 160 ish which might be good enough to frame and if we look at the field in betting order or at least the front of the market it gives a bit of hope.

    Might Bite my idea of the winner but a complete fruitcake so who knows what to expect.
    Bristol de mai Soft/Heavy dependant ? Haydock Specialist ?
    Fox Norton never been further than 2m4F possible NR
    Sizing John N/R
    Douvan never been further than 2m1f been out injured possible NR
    ThistleCrack after a laboured effort on comeback possibly finished ?
    Djakadam possible contender good sort if this is indeed the plan then 20/1 not a bad shout either AP
    Road to respect possible
    Tea for Two 4th beat in a 5 runner renewal of this last year but a possible runner and place chance
    Top Notch good sort but whether O' Henderson fancy's taking on his own Might bite ?.Also entered in Peterborugh possible N/R ?
    Whisper N/R
    Coneygree N/R

    Then a host of outsiders none of which sure to come and possibly not with much better claims than the old Double Shuffle. So that's the plan if nothing else turns up then we are definitely in with a squeak

    For the 20 quid lay out pays just over 20k for the wins and over 1k for the places.


    Feel free to have a go fellas. I'll stick one of these up every now and then for a laugh.
    Last edited by broadsword; Yesterday at 02:57 PM.
    Incredible call Danny and so unlucky but very, very nice return.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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  15. #471
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Sensational Danny. Enjoy!

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  17. #472
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Hope you had the F/C Danny

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    Danny (26th December 2017)

  19. #473
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Brilliant call Danny - well done
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  21. #474
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Just watched the race.

    Well done, Danny!! Brilliant run for your money!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. #475
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Well done Danny.

  23. #476
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    Well done Danny - one of those a year is just the ticket!

    A long shot from me for tomorrow

    Lingfield 2.55 - Free Talkin 20/1

    Not much to say other than this filly is getting the hang of things. Draw ok, Mark looks within reach and it doesn't look the strongest of nurseries.

    Hopefully nick a place at least.

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  25. #477
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Pissed that I missed Anibale Fly out today. A classic JP Martin plot up. I'll have to console myself with far too much weissbier and lots of fresh snow tomorrow!

  26. #478
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bonjers View Post
    Pissed that I missed Anibale Fly out today. A classic JP Martin plot up. I'll have to console myself with far too much weissbier and lots of fresh snow tomorrow!
    A horse I have put up myself before but unsure if it was this thread however I did spot it just before the off.
    27-Dec-17
    15:07:32 15:00 Leopardstown
    Anibale Fly - Win
    Betfair Bet ID 1:11228****** | Placed: 27-Dec-17 14:58:40 Back 22.00 5.00 --
    105.00
    Won
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  27. #479
    Senior Member Grey's Avatar
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    Paul Leech, owner of Bay Of Freedom, deserves a nod as well for identifying Anibale Fly in his blog as the "first one I was afraid of when the entries came out".

  28. #480
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey View Post
    Paul Leech, owner of Bay Of Freedom, deserves a nod as well for identifying Anibale Fly in his blog as the "first one I was afraid of when the entries came out".
    Thanks Grey, I just read his blog - what a good read it is.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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