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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #421
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    A few qualifiers today but maybe yesterday used up all my luck for the next wee while...

    Nwb 2.50 Jaleo 20/1 - My main bet in this race is Coeur De Lion but I do feel Jaleo is a winner waiting to happen somewhere/sometime. I've been interested in him since I saw him fall at the first this time last season, then get up and race past the others and clear all the way home. He's maybe just a very generous type but it grabbed my attention that day so I'm willing to save on him, just in case.

    Nwb 3.00 - Obviously SFP is my big fancy for this with Coneygree as the main back-up but I've taken another three I think are just too long for their respective chances:

    Double Ross (50/1) is 2lbs lower than when an excellent third to Native River last year. He didn't run again after that so maybe injured himself. The stable is in great form and I don't think they would run him if they thought he was totally past it.

    Bigbadjohn is 100/1 in places but I've taken 80/1 with 7 places with Hills. This is a Feltham winner, albeit perhaps a somewhat substandard one. He's also got jumping issues as well as a temperamental ones - he could be the horse who put the 'mental' in temperamental - but I love him. He's a big beast of a horse and I've felt since the Feltham that he was a possible for this race so I can't really not back him!

    Southfield Royale is 50s in places but I took 40/1 with the 7 places. Split Tea For Two and Native River in a very good Feltham the year before and ran pretty much to the same form in Minella Rocco's NH Chase, arguably the hottest renewal of that race in modern times if not ever. But it's been downhill since then, prompting the handicapper to lower him from 147 to 138. A wee bit like Double Ross, I can't believe a shrewd operator like Mulholland would run him here if he was past it and there was plenty of promise in his Badger Ales comeback run.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  4. #422
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Cheltenham 1.15 Sheer Poetry 40/1 - 6 places SkyBet. Won readily l/t/o over fences and if form is as good as it looks, she could be well in back over hurdles. Lots of question marks over her temperament and ability to handle soft going but that is reflected in the odds.
    For the record the selection above finished 3rd.

    Thursday
    Leicester 3.25 Georgieshore 20/1 e/way (Bet365 & BetVictor) Beaten a shd in this race 2 years ago off an 8lb higher mark - trainer in good form.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  5. #423
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    Wrote this for my place a bit of a daft one and possibly neither will make the final line ups but thought I'd post it up anyway as I at least think there is an angle to be worked in the King George even if I'm on a complete boat.

    Crazy Antepost E/w doubles

    I wasn't really going to bother posting these up but thought if ever some miracle occurs where I actually pull one off I'd like it documented. So the only rules are both selections must be huge prices I personally like to aim for at least 33/1 for each selection as for a £10/ew double it pays over 10k if successful. It might seem like a fruitless task as its fairly impossible to land one never mind two such bets but 2 places at those prices pays over £800 quid which is enough for another 40 attempts. I think in the main its a little easier to do after Christmas when you have Cheltenham and Aintree coming up and plenty of AP markets to go at. I suppose really they don't even have to be ante post bets but for now that's what I'll go with. I have to admit I don't think this first effort will be one of my more productive ones but conclusions were reached after a disgracefully boring family party and plenty of booze.

    Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Guitar Pete 33/1 4 places 1/4 Bet365

    I quite fancied him to run a big race in the Paddy Power and he was quite well supported in the market to do so. However I firstly thought the ground was really against him on the day and in running he was hampered badly ( losing probably 15-20 lengths ) so his chance had passed. Although he did still manage to finish ninth in a bunch with Foxtail hill and Double treasure. This race can cut up quite badly and is usually a weaker version than the PP and I figure if getting better ground (can't be much worse than that day) and a clear run he stands a chance of being thereabouts.

    King George IV Chase Double Shuffle 66/1 3 places 1/5 Bet365

    Madness I hear you cry ! That's exactly what I said when I read Tom George suggesting this as the target should the ground not be too soft. However Tom George knows the time of day when it comes to this event as Nacarat used to run some crackers in it and he too went a similar path after running in the same Handicap as Double shuffle ran in last year. It was Double shuffles 10th chase start and was running off 149 he made a mistake 3 out that should of taken him out of the race but he battled back gamely for 2nd he was raised 2lb for doing so. I think its quite possible that without that mistake he'd have won and been put up to around 156. That still really would leave him with a stone to find to win this and that sort of improvement would rarely be found with a horse with so many runs under his belt. However he has only had 2 starts at 3 miles and both around Kempton. Winning the handicap at the Christmas meeting and then that second in what used to be the racing post chase. Most of his time has been spent at 2m4f which just too short for him. It still sounds a bit far fetched but I can at least see him running up to 160 ish which might be good enough to frame and if we look at the field in betting order or at least the front of the market it gives a bit of hope.

    Might Bite my idea of the winner but a complete fruitcake so who knows what to expect.
    Bristol de mai Soft/Heavy dependant ? Haydock Specialist ?
    Fox Norton never been further than 2m4F possible NR
    Sizing John N/R
    Douvan never been further than 2m1f been out injured possible NR
    ThistleCrack after a laboured effort on comeback possibly finished ?
    Djakadam possible contender good sort if this is indeed the plan then 20/1 not a bad shout either AP
    Road to respect possible
    Tea for Two 4th beat in a 5 runner renewal of this last year but a possible runner and place chance
    Top Notch good sort but whether O' Henderson fancy's taking on his own Might bite ?.Also entered in Peterborugh possible N/R ?
    Whisper N/R
    Coneygree N/R

    Then a host of outsiders none of which sure to come and possibly not with much better claims than the old Double Shuffle. So that's the plan if nothing else turns up then we are definitely in with a squeak

    For the 20 quid lay out pays just over 20k for the wins and over 1k for the places.


    Feel free to have a go fellas. I'll stick one of these up every now and then for a laugh.
    Last edited by broadsword; Yesterday at 02:57 PM.
    Last edited by Danny; 6th December 2017 at 11:06 PM.
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  6. #424
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    Where is “your place”, Danny?
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  7. #425
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    Well its not really my place as such and I did mention it when I joined as I know a couple of your lads were members over there sometime ago and used to pop in from time to time. Its Ohracing forum ( posted under the name of Broadsword for quite sometime) run by Jamie Taylor who you might be familiar with Colin. He doesn't have the time to run it these days and hasn't for some time I think on the home page we're still building up to the Cheltenham festival of 2013 haha. I call it my place only on the basis that I never did anything online no facebook or anything like that and OHR was the only place I ever posted. Its a very long boring story as to why I have such a fondness for the place but in short it helped me turn my life around which at one time was in a fairly dark place I found that posting on the forum helped distract me from the madness. Jamie along with another guy who used to post on there under the user name of Spook (who if I'm not mistaken still posts on here under the name of Warbler) taught me so much about horse racing and were just in general really nice helpful guys the kind of people that I'd never met in real life as I came from one of the roughest council estates in the country. With Jamie too busy and Spook having lost interest in the sport (A shame really as he was as close to a horse racing genius as I'd ever seen) the place has died a death and there are just a couple of good lads still posting I shouldn't imagine it'll be too long before Jamie calls it a day tbh.

    I thought I'd give talking horses as a try as Ohr is on its last legs. If I'm honest I'd heard some bad things about the place but since I've been popping in I've had no problems and have found a fair few of the people who post on here to be really knowledgeable guys and seems some decent banter amongst the regulars. I've tried to adapt with the times a bit and tried twitter and things like that but IMO its all a bit ****. I think its a shame racing forums are struggling a bit as for people like me who don't really get to interact with proper racing people in real life it's really the ideal format. I'm a little out of touch with the game at the minute as I had to take a bit of a break for the best part of a couple of years but hopefully once I'm back in the swing of things I can contribute a bit more to the discussions myself. I hope the guys on here can bare with me a bit as I'm not the best educated of fellas so my posts might be difficult to read at times but I do try to make them as readable as possible and unfortunately my selections are usually worse than my writing skills.

    But if its alright with the majority on here then I'll keep sticking in my two penneth
    Last edited by Danny; 7th December 2017 at 9:29 AM.
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  9. #426
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    Nothing at all wrong with your writing skills, Danny.

    As far as I am concerned Talking Horse has acquired an asset in your posts and you are very welcome.

    The banter is normally quite light-hearted until the “fishwives” start winding the Grasshopper up.

    Do you favour the whippets or the slow old boats that failed on the flat so try to make a bob or two over obstacles?

    Do you get to go racing at all? It is normally easy to find someone who will have a chat.

    I have found most of the press and TV people are easy to approach (only one I didn’t get on with was Julian Wilson, and he ain’t around anymore).

    Anyway keep posting, it’s all good stuff and very welcome.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  10. #427
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Colin Phillips View Post
    The banter is normally quite light-hearted until the “fishwives” start winding the Grasshopper up.
    All harbour-side croans were retired the same day as Hurricane Fly, Col bach.

    Your input here is very welcome, Danny - keep it up.
    Spouting shite on here since 2006.

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  12. #428
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    Erm its very strange but at one time I was very national hunt racing and everyone on OHR was much more the speed rating flat racing types. Just before I took my break though I was seeming to do better punting on the flat and as such enjoyed it a whole lot more. I've come over here and I've already gathered that amongst quite a few of the regs that any mention of the words "flat racing" is an act of treason. So I tread carefully when I say I enjoy both codes . Do I get to go racing ? Not a regular race goer but hope to be in years to come, my local track would be Wolverhampton but not that keen to tell the truth but I've done Towcester, Chester and a few others but for me I've done the New years day meet at Cheltenham a couple of times and for me that is the absolute pinnacle. The first time I went I got there really early probably the first to arrive and I just looked over the course on a frosty morning thought I'd died and gone to heaven just the most beautiful sight.

    Anyway gotta get to bed as I'm on the night shift but thanks for the kind words Colin.
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  13. #429
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    Thanks for the input, Danny. I like to peruse others' thoughts, especially where big outsiders are concerned. I'm genuinely not particularly impressed when people look for some kind of kudos for tipping an odds-on shot. To me the idea is to beat the book rather than follow it and I've used your approach quite often.

    Guitar Pete was on my radar for the Mackeson too so I can see where you're coming from with it. I also like Double Shuffle generally but I just wonder about the King George for him. I'm not sure there will be as many NRs as you expect.

    I'll engage with the spirit of your approach in due course. I don't have many longshots ante-post and the ones I do have at upwards of 33s are off-the-wall speculation, a bit like Double Shuffle.

    They are:

    UTPT (Gold Cup, 50s and 100s)
    SFP (Gold Cup) 100/1

    So no double available.

    The others are 25s and less so don't qualify.

    I've no doubt I will have 33/1 shots in due course and will put them up.

    Good luck with yours.

    I should also say a belated 'well done' to Chef for his 40/1 third. I knew it had happened and I came on to the thread to congratulate him at the time but couldn't see his post so thought it was on another thread (I'm easily confuddled these days) and didn't want to start trawling... So well done, Swedish Chef!
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  14. #430
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    For the record the selection above finished 3rd.

    Thursday
    Leicester 3.25 Georgieshore 20/1 e/way (Bet365 & BetVictor) Beaten a shd in this race 2 years ago off an 8lb higher mark - trainer in good form.
    Bloody hell that was close chef. Backed down to 9/2 as well. If he hadn’t jumped every hurdle like a fence he’d have easily been 3rd, maybe better.

    Great recommendation despite the result.


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    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    Bloody hell that was close chef. Backed down to 9/2 as well. If he hadn’t jumped every hurdle like a fence he’d have easily been 3rd, maybe better.

    Great recommendation despite the result.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Yes jumping the hurdles like they were national fences was a sight to behold - no doubt it cost him a place.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Sedgefield 1.15 Red Ochre 80/1 e/way (Betfair Sportsbook & P. Power) Only a dozen lengths behind the even money fav today when that horse was having his 3rd run of the season and the selection his first. Was seen to be finishing well on second start. Is joint top rated with fav on RPR's.
    Negatives - having third run and could be going for h'cap mark and may need a longer trip. However at the odds is worth a speculative pound e/way of anyone's money.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Chelmsford 8:45 - FAREEQ - Ex Haggas inmate, showed potential as a juvenile, the 25's is going.
    The market support looks interesting.
    Last edited by Marble; 8th December 2017 at 1:18 PM.

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    Red Ochre a long way off the front two but lands the place money. Much obliged chef I got 66s this morning.

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  22. #435
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Sedgefield 1.15 Red Ochre 80/1 e/way (Betfair Sportsbook & P. Power) Only a dozen lengths behind the even money fav today when that horse was having his 3rd run of the season and the selection his first. Was seen to be finishing well on second start. Is joint top rated with fav on RPR's.
    Negatives - having third run and could be going for h'cap mark and may need a longer trip. However at the odds is worth a speculative pound e/way of anyone's money.
    Excellent, Chef! Took 66/1 ew this morning then forgot all about it! Many thanks.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Nice work, Chef.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Cracking shout Chef haven't had a bean on myself but well played.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    Three qualifiers for me today.

    San 2.10 Evening Hush 28/1 - Evan Williams stated last season that Evening Hush was the best he’d ever trained after she won at Aintree and went so far as to say he couldn’t see her beat in the Finale at Chepstow next time. That was her cue to start downing tools and she’s been gubbed an aggregate of 73 lengths in four subsequent runs. She went up to 144 after Aintree so could be lobbed in off 11lbs lower here, plus the impressive claimer’s 5lbs allowance. Then again, maybe the trainer got her all wrong.

    San 3.30 Milansbar 25/1 - Milansbar owes me big time now. He’s been off form badly for a long time but showed a bit more on his reappearance. He was arguably the best horse in the race off 145 in the 2016 Midlands National and is 11lbs lower here.

    Ain 3.10 No No Mac 66/1 - No No Mac is the outsider of the field but can win. I’m not convinced his form merits the 8lbs drop he’s been given following two moderate runs this season. He stays three miles and acts well in heavy so if he can stay in touch he might be one of the stronger finishers.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  30. #439
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    I have quite a heavy layout today with more bets than I'd normally have and some quite tusky ones to boot. I think the pressure might have cracked me up As that is the only reason I can find that when searching for a couple of Long price savers that I've found myself coming to the conclusion that I can give Lord Windemere a chance at 40/1 in the Becher.

    I can't can't recall ever backing the horse and the only time I came close to doing so but didn't bother was when he won the Gold cup and that would have been only on the basis that he was a big price considering he'd won the RSA the year before. Anyway I was looking at his record FTO over the past couple of seasons.

    Beaten hd by Champange Fever
    Beaten 5L by Don Cossack

    Whilst it would be ridiculous to take that form literally its worth bearing in mind that those were both run over trips too short for him and in the context of running in a Becher off a mark of 144 then its fair. Whilst you'd struggle to find many decent runs on his profile over the last couple of seasons he's put up some sort of show when Beaten 8 lengths by Carlingford Lough in Grd1 company which again in the context of the challenge he faces today isn't too bad. He completed albeit back in 7th back here in April and was given a hold up ride which these days in the National isn't ideal. That was on a lot better ground than they'll face today in fact if you believe the going stick then its going to be awful. This has been a race in the past that has fell to tough veterans and perhaps first time out will be the time to catch him now attempting a trip that should be more suitable. Touch wood he hasn't ever fallen since his debut over hurdles and today could simply come down to a case of what can complete. He was tried in a first time tounge tie in the National which seemed to improve his performance but its absent today so whether they've had his breathing done through the summer I'm not sure. I'm always wary in this race that horses can just be turning up to get dropped a few pounds for the big one back in the spring so who knows.

    Not sure I believe in it myself but had a few quid at the price.

    Potrait King was another I considered at a price somehow managed to make the frame in Topham in the Spring which quite where he's found the speed from to do that I'll never know as I've missed the last couple of seasons but last I remember he was an Eider type boat. He's a poor horse but off 10 stone he's one who can probably keep going forever if the race fall apart which given conditions it may well do.
    Last edited by Danny; 9th December 2017 at 1:05 PM.
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  31. #440
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    Maybe I should put some sickness insurance on Lord Windermere too. I hadn't investigated his profile to the same depth but - cue howls of aftertiming accusatons - I did back him in both the RSA and Gold Cup as well as in subsequent races when he's run badly. Worth some fun money at the price.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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