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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #301
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    Good luck, Dan.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  3. #302
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    Just one 'qualifier' today:

    Portland - Move In Time 25/1

    The main worry is that he's 28/1 with Sporting Bet, usually a sign that they've heard he isn't going to win. He’s probably simply in serious decline but is 24lbs lower than this time two seasons ago when he was rated 113 after winning the previous season’s Abbaye when 3/1f. He could win this and defy a penalty in one of the consolation races at Ayr, which would probably total £100k, which would go some way towards making up for not getting near any of the big races.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th September 2017 at 11:57 AM.
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  4. #303
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    Two qualifiers today:

    Nwb 3.25 Snoano 40/1 (5 places with one or two firms)

    Snoano remains well handicapped and the better ground here might allow him to show his true form again. The jockey is an unknown to me but he’s 22% for Richard Hughes (won or placed in the first four 47 times from 60 rides) and maybe he’s seen as a recommendation.

    Nwm 3.10 Oriental Fox 20/1

    Not my main bet in the race and he might be flattered by his big Ascot run but he’s capable enough on a going day.
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  5. #304
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    Two qualifiers in the same race today - Newmarket 3.35

    Custom Cut 33/1
    - Custom Cut would be top rated [on my figures] on his best form of last season yet is the 33/1 outsider of the field. His RPRs for a couple of his recent runs haven’t been far off that level although I’m less inclined to trust them. He is the type to pop up in a race of this nature. Whether it's today is another matter but at the price I'm happy to pay to find out.

    Whisky Baron 20/1 - I don’t know how South African G1 form compares with ours but Whisky Baron won one last time for his powerful connections who have plenty of horses trained up here. I would hope there's enough communication within the organisation to arrive at the conclusion that he, rather than a home-based runner, is a suitable candidate.
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  6. #305
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    I've had a decent each way bet on Whitecliffsofdover at 40/1 with 365 -quarter the odds a place.

  7. #306
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    Quote Originally Posted by LUKE View Post
    I've had a decent each way bet on Whitecliffsofdover at 40/1 with 365 -quarter the odds a place.
    Yes, I wouldn't put anyone off at that price. Market-wise, it's a weird race.
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  8. #307
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    Wrote a fairly long essay explaining the bet but got logged out just as a finished.Currently 36 to lay in win market and 6.2 in place market -the 40s is a no brainier.

  9. #308
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    In running 6.2 in the win market and 2.06 in the place market.Unfortunately you can't eat value.

  10. #309
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    Neither of mine nor yours, Luke, were given any chance of winning there.

    Yours was sacrificed for the other one and mine either chased the over-fast pace or wasn't there for anything other than a run. Probably explains, after all, why they were the prices they were.

    Very impressive winner, though.
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  11. #310
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    Thought I'd stick this up ion here as its not my usual way of picking a horse but I'll give Linguistic a chance in the Cambridgeshire he's been highly tried at 2 and 3 and has some decent bits and bobs of form overall it wouldn't look like he's crying out for a bet though. However it seems a bit of a bizarre entry as for one I thought Gosdens team would supplement Monarch Glen here who looked built for the job but ran instead on Thursday winning at Goodwood. Secondly Godolphin already had a fairly strong hand in the race with last years 3rd Very talented probably the best of the bunch. He's coming off the back of a 6month break (Has run well fresh before) , wearing first time pieces here and is only having his second run since being being gelded. His last run (his first after the cut) was a decent enough effort on the All weather so all in all not sure on the price (As oddschecker appears to be on the blink) but I think he's still around 25/1 he might be worth a dabble.
    Last edited by Danny; 29th September 2017 at 8:41 PM.
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  13. #311
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    Good luck, Danny. Linguistic nearly made my shortlist for the reasons you give.
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  14. #312
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    In the ante-post thread I put up both Battle Of Marathon (50/1) and Bravery (40/1) and am happy they've stood their ground.

    I've also taken Master The World at 42 to fun stakes.

    But if there's one that's screaming value this morning at huge odds it's Briardale (150/1 in places with 6 places on offer). It probably has a similar chance to a lot of horses around the 20/1 - 33/1 mark. If you're not into 20/1 - 33/1 shots you won't be interested but it's the kind of bet I love.

    I had Spanish Don top rated when it won at 100/1 and didn't back it cos I fancied others more on the day. I try not to make that kind of mistake again...
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 30th September 2017 at 9:44 AM.
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  15. #313
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    Excuse me a second poke in a 30+ runner field Dessie and I can't quite match the odds of that one but its close.

    Going to take another stab at this with a big outsider Mulligatawny he's a 100/1 with Sid james and available at 80's with better place terms. Actually comes out on top of Lawernce Taylors figures with his last time out performance over 10F at Ripon where he just got nabbed in the dying strides. Trip and ground should suit and has a very high draw. With most the fancied runners low and Mulligatawny liking to run from the front I'm just wondering whether he might end up going solo down the rail and if the ground is slightly better on that side it might well give him a bit of a boost hopefully he'll be able to make the running or even sit in behind Sands Chorus who did the donkey work for him last time. Worth a pop at the price I think.
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  16. #314
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    Take as many pokes as you want, Danny. This is a whore of thread!!
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    9.10 Kempton - Elusive Cowboy

    Decent mark. Overpriced. Hope he can go well.

  19. #317
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    Also at Kempton, in the 7.40, the rank outsider is War Whisper of Hannon's. He went into the tracker after a really good run at Ascot in May off 80. The winner that day (on the same mark) went on to win a similar ace at Ponty off a 10lb higher mark. WW though has been pretty poor since and I'm thinking the AW might spark some life back into him. He's 28/1 at the moment and has drifted before his last couple of starts.

  20. #318
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Also at Kempton, in the 7.40, the rank outsider is War Whisper of Hannon's. He went into the tracker after a really good run at Ascot in May off 80. The winner that day (on the same mark) went on to win a similar ace at Ponty off a 10lb higher mark. WW though has been pretty poor since and I'm thinking the AW might spark some life back into him. He's 28/1 at the moment and has drifted before his last couple of starts.
    Couldn't put you off Euro. He was on my shortlist but I chose the other in the last.

  21. #319
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    Kempton 7.40 - Belgian Bill

    Normally I wouldn't look at non-televised midweek racing let alone the AW stuff but a tracker alert directed me to this race (Sultan Baybars, but he doesn't qualify for the thread at 18/1) where I noticed Belgian Bill was engaged and available at 20/1.

    He was on my original long list for the Cambridgeshire but didn't run. He is very well handicapped at the moment. He's 5lbs pounds lower than when 'winning' the wrong side in the Hunt Cup. Only three raced over there that day but they went as fast as they could and it wasn't as if they were three donkeys. He nosed out George William who was only 12/1 with Yuften just behind. In these circumstances I tend to rate them winners of an average race for the class, which would be better than tonight's race. Factor in his subsequent drop in the weights and he is simply well in. He went up to 107 for winning the Golden Mile at Goodwood off 102 a couple of seasons ago and I'm not convinced he's regressed. He's off 95 here.

    None of that means he will win, of course. If he isn't trying no price will be value. It's just a punt worth taking for me.

    (I've saved on the tracker horse.)
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 4th October 2017 at 9:25 AM.
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  23. #320
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    Actually have a little fancy for one in the same race Dessie Kentucky Connection 66/1 Ladbrokes 4 places. haven't really got time for a write up but his performance at Newcastle 2 runs ago makes him look better than a 66/1 shot. He had a break after that and had one disappointing run since over further (probably too far) on turf.2lb lower than Newcastle 2nd. Hot race but still worth a stab.
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