Page 14 of 117 FirstFirst ... 49101112131415161718192464114 ... LastLast
Results 261 to 280 of 2332

Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #261
    Senior Member Grey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    9,397
    Thanks
    882
    Thanked 912 Times in 550 Posts
    Simply brilliant, DO

  2. #262
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Boss
    Last edited by Maxbet; 19th August 2017 at 3:25 PM.

  3. #263
    Senior Member Dave G's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Liverpool
    Posts
    2,583
    Thanks
    175
    Thanked 33 Times in 28 Posts
    Great shout DO. Intended to back both each way and totally forgot.
    You should not confuse your career with your life.

  4. #264
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    Well done,I thought,like you that the Ayr gold cup might be the aim and so ruled him out.
    Again,well done.

  5. #265
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Gt St Wilf two 'qualifiers':

    Naadirr - briefly touched 33s and 40s this morning. Naadirr got quite close to The Tin Man last spring after his rating went up to 110. He was also running well in Maydan this spring but was subsequently dumped by Marco Botti. He’s 12lbs lower now than last season and has only had two runs for his new trainer.

    Mattmu 28/1 - probably another whose star is on the wane but his owner and trainer are standing by him. This is actually his first ever run in a handicap so they may be accepting his slide for what it’s worth or they’re seeing it as an opportunity to bag a decent prize if he’s no longer capable of mixing it in Group races. Rated 115 at his peak two seasons ago, he’s still lightly raced overall but has dropped more dramatically than the others and he was ‘only’ 20/1 for the G1 Golden Jubilee on his penultimate start when still rated 110. Ayr might be the aim, though, in which case a penalty might be a hindrance.
    So well deserved Maurice, well done.

  6. #266
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave G View Post
    Great shout DO. Intended to back both each way and totally forgot.
    Same. My brain has stopped working.
    Last edited by Marb; 19th August 2017 at 3:31 PM.

  7. #267
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Thanks, guys. I spent so much of the race cursing at Naadirr being taken to the near side I almost forgot about the leader on the far side.

    Don't be surprised if Naadirr makes a sudden return to form at Ayr at a big price.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  8. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Marb (19th August 2017)

  9. #268
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    Arrers Dessie.

    Shanghai Glory looked very eye catching with regards to Ayr

  10. #269
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    2,903
    Thanks
    775
    Thanked 229 Times in 179 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave G View Post
    Great shout DO. Intended to back both each way and totally forgot.
    Even worse for me; I only backed one of them; the wrong one!!

  11. #270
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by moehat View Post
    Even worse for me; I only backed one of them; the wrong one!!
    Ouch! I feel your pain, moehat. It's why I often take out little 'sickness insurance' policies!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  12. #271
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    912
    Thanks
    572
    Thanked 319 Times in 293 Posts
    One for me today, Ice Galley @ Ponte Carlo 3.25

  13. #272
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Two qualifiers at York today. They wouldn't be my main bets in the races; I just think they're 'way too big for their form.

    1.55: Gracious John 50/1 - Started the season on 110, suggesting he is not short of class, and is presumably a big price on account of four unpromising runs on turf this spring and summer. However, he won a good turf handicap off 105 in November and gets to race off 2lbs lower here. His female rider today has ridden him just twice before. The first time was in that November win and the last time was when second off 110 in December at Newcastle. He was also only a half-length behind Lancelot Du Lac at levels in a Listed race at Lingfield in February. I thought there was a glimmer of improvement on his current disappointing run last time. I just think his price is totally wrong.

    4.15: Oriental Fox 33/1 - was right back to his very best in the Queen Alexandra and I expect the trainer went easy on him afterwards, allowing him to come back to himself in his own time. If this is the aim rather than, say, the Cesarewitch, he must go close but I’m not sure he runs his best races here. Still, 33/1 is too big for his best form.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. #273
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,101
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    HOOF IT available at 20 on the machine could run really well.

    He showed some of his old sparkle last time in the Stewards Cup, beaten under 2 lengths and the h'capper has dropped him 2lbs.....way overpriced IMO
    Formely Fist of Fury

  15. The Following User Says Thank You to Tanlic For This Useful Post:

    PRICEWISE2008 (23rd August 2017)

  16. #274
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Ran on at the finish, Fist.

  17. #275
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    The change in ground killed off any chance the high numbers had. That excellent high, side-on shot after a furlong illustrated spectacularly how badly handicapped they were. They must have been eight lengths down at that stage.

    Not much chance of them coming up the stands rail in the round-course races, I suppose.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  18. #276
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,101
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    I backed him to finish in the first 5 at 3.3 can't believe he was 6th...4 horses between 5th and 6th they guessed that assholes
    Formely Fist of Fury

  19. #277
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    I've only bet in one race today, the Clipper Logistics. The main bet is El Hayem but there are two qualifiers for the thread who carry savers.

    Baraweez 25/1 - [second-top rated overall on back form] was one of a 1-2-3 for Ellison at Galway last time. He’s been a bit in and out but is 11lbs lower than last spring and has to be backed.

    Bravery 22/1
    - [top rated on this season's form] I’m curious why Tudhope rides Firmament rather than Bravery. Firmament is entitled to run well but would really need to improve a bit to win whereas Bravery’s Lincoln form gives him a very big shout. It was a stronger-in-depth race than this and he gets to race off 1lb lower following a subsequently disappointing season. However, he is a risk worth taking here. Oh This Is Us was a neck second to him at Doncaster but Bravery is 4lbs better off here.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  20. #278
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Just nosing through the thread for first time in a while.

    Looks like you're in the sweet-spot at the moment, DO - nice one.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  21. #279
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Cheers, GH.

    As I said at the outset, the nature of the approach is that it's long odds-on that the horses won't win and obviously losing runs can be very long indeed. But finding big priced winners has motivated me since I was a teenager!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. #280
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Cheers, GH.

    As I said at the outset, the nature of the approach is that it's long odds-on that the horses won't win and obviously losing runs can be very long indeed. But finding big priced winners has motivated me since I was a teenager!
    A man after my own heart.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •