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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #221
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    Sure I'll stick up two as well.

    14.10 crown of Cortez 40-1
    15.35 mutadaa 25-1

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    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    I'll throw my hat in as well

    2.25 Alba Power 33/1- on a line through Jellmood which ties in with Aqabah who ties in with Rajasinghe. Then Alba Power may be up to group 2 class with the progression he showed on his 2nd start.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  3. #223
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    NWM 1.50 - Sofia's Rock - just over 11 lengths behind Atty Persse in the the KGV H’cap, he actually ran a good bit better than the bare form and was eased late on after meeting trouble in running about two out. He’s 10lbs better with Atty Persse, including Shoemark’s claim, and it could be that he wasn’t over his previous impressive win. He also disappointed in the Lingfield Derby Trial on the back of a wide-margin, strong-staying win. Has now drifted out to 20/1 to qualify for the thread.
    Ran really well and for a brief moment or two I thought he might just hold them off. Still, backed it ew so a wee profit on the race.
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  4. #224
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I think Parfait will win the opener but there's one that strikes me as definitely over-priced in the race at better than 20/1.

    Swift Approval 25/1 - is back on the same mark as when winning last year but has disappointed since leaving Kevin Ryan at the end of last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the plan was to get his mark back down to this level ahead of specific targets here and at Goodwood. Almost qualifies in the market without Parfait at 16/1 (which is my bet).
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 14th July 2017 at 10:09 AM.
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  5. #225
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I think Parfait will win the opener but there's one that strikes me as definitely over-priced in the race at better than 20/1.

    Swift Approval 25/1 - is back on the same mark as when winning last year but has disappointed since leaving Kevin Ryan at the end of last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the plan was to get his mark back down to this level ahead of specific targets here and at Goodwood. Almost qualifies in the market without Parfait at 16/1 (which is my bet).
    Well done DO and with yesterdays as well - class calls.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  7. #226
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    3.05 York - Erik the Red 22/1

    Should have a bit in his favour tomorrow and with first time headgear off a lowish weight there's a cause for optimism. Ground should be fine and the Kevin Ryan yard will be hoping for a big race win after their issues with EHV.

  8. #227
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    Plenty of longsots with shouts today, especially in the Magnet Cup (inc ETR, Dan).

    I mentioned Tumbaga in the race thread. I still like it and it's still 40/1. I think Snoano is also overlooked but he's very weak on the exchange so maybe today isn't the day but it hasn't put me off.

    In the Bunbury Cup, if Donncha is targeting the race seriously he's too big at 33/1.
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  10. #228
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    The lack of 8 runners is a blow for E/W but 16/1 looks big For Gabrial in the summer mile given the rain that's there and the Gd-Sft conditions on the round course, Has been in good heart this season on ground the last twice that would have been much too lively for him.

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    Erik the Red was far too free. He may have needed that run and should be capable of better at some point this season. Big fields should ensure a price.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    It was a very unsatisfactory race. There didn't seem to be much pace and nothing really got competitive from the rear. Tumbaga was very disappointing. I stuck with it despite reservations about the jockey and he gave up pretty quickly once headed. Maybe it was too soon after Ascot and maybe not just for him. Snoano was never doing much either and the morning weakness in the market was right after all. The result has an upside-down look to it with lower ratings (on my own figures) getting the better of higher ones. The form will still be good, though, and the well-handicapped disappointments will come good again.

    Donncha never got competitive. I'll maybe hold off on him until Atzeni gets the call.
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  13. #231
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fonz View Post
    The lack of 8 runners is a blow for E/W but 16/1 looks big For Gabrial
    Oi, fonz, 20/1 or more to qualify for my fvcking thread
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  14. #232
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    Curragh 4.45 Unrequited 33/1 - has run respectfully in all 3 c/d runs off marks of 80 - 84 & 87 - didn't take to hurdles as not fluent - runs today off 74 with a 7lb claimer. Was 5th in Irish Cesarewitch btn 2L by todays opponent Digeanta getting 10lb 2yrs ago - today he is getting 23lb from that horse. If he retains any of that ability? He'll go close.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    It was a very unsatisfactory race. There didn't seem to be much pace and nothing really got competitive from the rear. Tumbaga was very disappointing. I stuck with it despite reservations about the jockey and he gave up pretty quickly once headed. Maybe it was too soon after Ascot and maybe not just for him. Snoano was never doing much either and the morning weakness in the market was right after all. The result has an upside-down look to it with lower ratings (on my own figures) getting the better of higher ones. The form will still be good, though, and the well-handicapped disappointments will come good again.

    Donncha never got competitive. I'll maybe hold off on him until Atzeni gets the call.
    Do you think Donncha needs a bit of assistance from the handicapper? He ran plenty of big races over a fairly prolonged period and kept edging up the weights. I do think he's a win or two in him from September onwards when the ground has a bit of dig in it.

  16. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    I think the ground for ours SC. We've both picked him I think because he's a horse that is looking almost ready to strike.

    I will say now that I do have a habit with these handicappers of going for them one run too early and I get the feeling this is one of those times, recently did it with Desert Ace, backed him at Musselburgh and left him the next time. I would keep an eye out for where Dandyleekie turns up next. It could be somewhere like Thirsk or Pontefract and assuming they drop him back into class 5 and find him so,even ground where he can get his toe in I'd rate him a strong bet.
    Just flagging this one up again. Dandyleekie runs in the 3.00 at Ayr tomorrow. The sole bookie to price up has him at 16s so he doesn't qualify yet. It's fair to say though that someone will be 20s at some point before the off. I haven't backed him and I won't as I feel there's too much against him on balance and have a strong fancy in the race. I will keep an eye on the run though because he is of interest.

    For anyone interested the case for him is simple. Off 72 back down in class. His sole run over C&D was fair and better form than tomorrow's race. He needs a form revival and conditions are slowly turning back in his favour.

    That said there are a couple of concerns. The ground is advertised as good, and going off the forecast rain is unlikely. For the other please see the what are you backing thread.

  17. #235
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    Do you think Donncha needs a bit of assistance from the handicapper? He ran plenty of big races over a fairly prolonged period and kept edging up the weights. I do think he's a win or two in him from September onwards when the ground has a bit of dig in it.
    Any assistance the handicapper now gives will reinforce his prospects going forward. I rate him as things stand as handicapped to win a proper Class 2 handicap, possibly a Heritage handicap. I think the trainer will have one serious target in mind but I don't know what it is. If he books Atzeni it suggests serious intent.
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  18. #236
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    Market Rasen 3.20 Wadswick Court - 20/1 - Roddy's horse may have a big run in him judging on this effort off 7lb higher over C/D http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video...31054/15705940
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  20. #237
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    The bare 8 runners in the 5:00 at Newmarket. This is good if there is a good outsider lurking there.

    Anfaass has run two extremely poor races recently, (almost too bad to be true), but he's got previous form with the 95 rated Golden Apollo as a two year old when he was third behind him at Doncaster. Anfaass runs with low mark here of 80 today, with the bottom weight.

    Love Dreams and Mazyoun both have clear chances but for me it would be like playing Russian roulette deciding which one of them to back, so I'll take Anfaass with the 8 runners to show up better today, E/W. At around 20/1.
    Last edited by Marb; 22nd July 2017 at 1:19 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    The bare 8 runners in the 5:00 at Newmarket.
    Should have guessed, down to 7!

  22. #239
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Lynn's Memory (Super Sprint) 25/1, 6 places with Skybet.

    Can't imagine Joseph O'Brien is sending this one over for a laugh.
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  23. #240
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    I'd give a small chance to Foresee in the 5.15 at Ripon. 20s in a place but more 18s freely available.

    Has been sliding down the handicap since joining the Carroll yard. Effective on slower ground and I think he can go close in a weak race.

    Might be worth hoovering up the odd bits and pieces on the exchanges if you can get places 1/2/3.

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