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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #941
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    For Tanlic's benefit, 28/1, 22/1, 20/1, and 16/1 places today. You're a pretty harsh critic when you're on the Thai Grog.
    Well done to all those great judges and Tanlic I rushed on here after the Scottish National because I thought I had posted the winner. I had posted it on another forum and thought I had copied and pasted it on here- so was gutted when I realised my mistake otherwise we could have had another nice priced winner on here.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Navan 3:45 Captain Midnight. 20/1.One of the best handicapped horses in the field. This Bushranger gelding has served connections well down the years and usually goes well early-season. He had a pipe opener just four days ago which I view as a positive. Georoid's onboard . These amateurs are always desperate to prove themselves when they manage to get their leg over. Marble Copyrighted 2018.

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    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Navan 3:45 Captain Midnight. 20/1.One of the best handicapped horses in the field. This Bushranger gelding has served connections well down the years and usually goes well early-season. He had a pipe opener just four days ago which I view as a positive. Georoid's onboard . These amateurs are always desperate to prove themselves when they manage to get their leg over. Marble Copyrighted 2018.
    Great shout Marble - very well done.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  5. #944
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    Navan 5:50 Athenry Boy each way. Up against a red hot favourite but great each way value in his own right at 25/1. All I'm really after is a first three finish for the each way money. He's on nice enough rating as it happens. Hoping for a good ride from Wayne Lordan.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've only just caught up with yesterday's racing.

    I suspect we'll never get 25/1 Keyser Soze again. It will be interesting to see what kind of markup Timeform suggests. The best horse in that race by a mile.

    I also got great runs for my money from Gabrial and Sky Khan who might have won if he'd been ridden from just a couple of lengths closer.

    Great shout from Marble too.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 22nd April 2018 at 9:09 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Brilliant well done

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    well done Marble.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've only just caught up with yesterday's racing.

    I suspect we'll never get 25/1 Keyser Soze again. It will be interesting to see what kind of markup Timeform suggests. The best horse in that race by a mile.

    I also got great runs for my money from Gabrial and Sky Khan who might have won if he'd been ridden from just a couple of lengths closer.

    Great shout from Marble too.
    Des I think you had some real bad luck mate with some of those. The day Jamie Spencer gets there a bit too soon is definitely not your day ! Some excellent efforts mate.


    Marble that's a cracking winner mate well done.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Has any c*nt had a horse placed yet? seriously have they?
    Although I can't be arsed to do it I'm sure if you went through the thread from start to finish whether you staked e/w or win only the thread as a whole would be well in profit.

    I don't think you can ask much more than that from a open forum where people are putting up selections in most cases with a lot of hard work and thought behind them and they are sticking them up F.O.C.

    I'd guarantee that there are a lot of paid for services that probably couldn't match up to the results on this thread.

    Some top work by all the contributors involved imo.
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    Well done Martin. Great shout.

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    Cheers Paul!

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    Profits from the thread however may be about to take a small dip as I take another ante-post stab and by my reckoning Rebecca Curtis has a chance of landing back to back feature races after Joe Farrell winning the Scottish Nash comes Relentless Dreamer 40/1 for the Bet365 Gold Cup or as I know it the Whitbread. Its hard to make a case that this horse has loads in hand on any line of form and I'd struggle to make a case outside of it winning anything other than Saturdays feature. I suppose with this one its about when elements combine. I've long held the view that this horse requires 2 things to show its best. The first being a decent surface with the ground being currently good and with a weather forecast to match I'm hopeful that the first box will be ticked. The second thing is an extended trip. He's had one go over further than 3 miles in the Edinburgh National over 4m1f in soft testing ground and he went well for a long way before not really seeing out the trip. The winner was carrying only 9-7 whilst the second Missed Approach and Relentless Dreamer were both carrying 11-6. Missed Approach of course went on to win at the festival and as such re-opposes here 10lb worse off for 10 lengths which over that sort of trip should reverse the result without taking into consideration that I think Relentless dreamer will be better for the drop back in trip and better for a firmer surface. Missed Approach currently 7/1 and the selection 40's it already blindly looks like a value poke. Where Missed Approach went for the festival and many others in the race have either taken up engagements at one of the spring festivals or even the Scottish Nash Relentless Dreamer has skipped them all to come here (I hope). One race in between the Edinburgh National and this which was a hot 3 mile handicap at Kempton in February where he went well for quite a way before making a mistake but still wasn't entirely disgraced there. So it looks as though he'll be a fresher horse than most going into the race. It looks and ideal prep. I have no idea what James Bowen is up to on Saturday but he has ridden this in the past with the horse set to carry as little as 10-1 anyway if Blaklion lines up. If James Bowen hops on board its sure to command a bit of attention in the betting and I'm never against a horse carrying a feather weight in a staying chase. I just think whatever happens 40/1 with Bet Victor or Paddy power is a stonking bit of value.

    I also have been a follower of Caroles Destrier who might bounce back coming back to Sandown off a lowly mark but the current 20's about him doing so is a bit stingy given current form so I'll wait until closer the day to have a bit of back up on that one.

    As you like fellas.
    Last edited by Danny; 23rd April 2018 at 4:23 PM.
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    Im going to put one up for tomorrow but im not too optimistic.
    Design matters went into my note book although his form doesnt read well,but its interesting to see the trainer has won the last two runnings of this race.66/1

  19. #954
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    You're certainly not alone in fancying the trainer to do it again mate some real good money for it and a nice price you've snaffled. Best of luck.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I suspect we'll never get 25/1 Keyser Soze again. It will be interesting to see what kind of markup Timeform suggests. The best horse in that race by a mile.
    Timeform suggest 4lbs purely on times, which would have been enough to win and was the highest markup of the first twelve home. I don't imagine it will take into account the ground conceded by moving sharply across to the right. The form book also says he went left out of the gates before that.

    Definitely one that got away... for now
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 26th April 2018 at 10:39 AM.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    This might not be my only longshot for the day. One or two are hovering just below the 20/1 threshhold and might drift through the morning.

    Anyroads, first up today is:

    San 3.35 Theatre Guide 33/1, 5 places - Theatre Guide has a few runs that require forgiving since he looked at least as good as ever first time up in the Badger Ales when not fully wound up and may have been campaigned with a view to getting his mark lower than when a half-length third in this race last season. If so, it has worked a treat; he’s 3lbs lower. He's joint second-top on my figures so definitely worth an each-way saver.

    Edit - I've just noticed Benbens is 50/1. That price is wrong. He should be within a couple of points of Sugar Baron. I can't back him to win but if I can get 12/1 place-only I'll probably take a bit of that too.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 28th April 2018 at 7:00 AM.
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    I like Annseanachai Cliste 33/1 Bet365 in the Boylesports chase at Punchestown. Cracking run behind Paper Lantern last time condidering even 3 mile on heavy ground is probably a little short of what this one needs. Better off with Paper Lantern at the weights. Lots better off with Poormans hill on previous form. This is a tougher race no doubt than his last 2 contests one I'm convinced he'd have won if he hadn't have fallen early on. He will improve fpr going further and by my reckoning should be no bigger than 10's maybe 12's. In truth I backed him at 25's last night as soon as he opened up because I thought that was a stonking price 33/1 is ridiculous. Tough race need the usual luck in running and all that but certainly holds as good a chance as any other horse in the line up with a clear round.

    I'd said earlier in the week that I'd want a better surface for Relentless dreamer to go on. The simple science of accurate going descriptions is alluding us once again. 7.0 the latest going stick reading I've seen which would be perfect but I think that was possibly taken some time in last July. Who knows ? The better the ground the better his chance but I have the feeling it'll be soft but not desperate. Carloes destrier was the other one I mentioned would probably also like decent ground but handles a bit of cut. Ridiculously well handicapped now but is one of those that could well be gone at the game. Been backed into 18/1 I think that's probably a loyal legion of followers who've done their dough following this horse part way over the cliff and are now prepared as I have been to give it one last chance although I've can only back it on the nut...hack up or pull up job !

    We await the going updates.
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  26. #958
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I found I couldn't say no to the 100 on offer about Benbens on the exchange to the minimum stake permissible (£2). The ground is maybe against it and he's clearly the least-fancied of the NTD trio but he also had Calett Mad entered and it was good enough to win the other day.

    Other longshots I've dabbled with:

    San 5.15 Landin 28/1, Zubayr 28/1 & Le Breuil 22x

    These are really just sickness insurance bets as I've put certainly the first two of them up recently only for them to disappoint. They're still well handicapped. Le Breuil has been on my radar for a while but I missed its win at the start of the month as it was a small race I didn't look at. I have it rated a potential winner of a race of this nature on its best form of last season but it still wouldn't be my main fancy in this race.
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  27. #959
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    I can't ignore BenBens either; the 13 year olds this year seem to be a good vintage #c'montheoldies!

  28. #960
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    I am in the Benbens camp,ive done him at 50s 1st 5 and couldnt resist a go in bet 365 extra place markets.
    150/1 2places and 20/1 in the 10 place market.

    In the 500p ive done UNDRESSED at 50/1 stays forever but is a bit hit or miss.

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