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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #921
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Read this morning that Quite By Chance bled from the nose yesterday.
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    Two longshots for the scottish national.

    13yr olds have never won the scottish national but i think BENBENS 33/1 will give me a good run for my money.
    Did me a big favour last year when finishing 3rd at 40 or 50/1.i cant remember what price i took now.
    I think Zak Baker held on to him too long before trying to catch the first two and only got beat 2L.
    Usually a good jumper and the drier ground will be in his favour.
    MYSTEREE 33/1 is the other one.his last two runs last season were good and looked as if hed make a good staying chaser but his two runs this year doesnt inspire confidence.the stats will tell you that most winners were in the first 3 last time and he was thirdbut was beaten 124L
    Yes 124L.all his best runs have been on soft/heavy but he has won on good.

  3. #923
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    I have taken 25/1 about GEORGE WILLIAM for the newbury spring cup.
    Unlucky 4th in the race last year and a fast finishing 2nd in the victoria cup.
    He then won a £9000 stakes race at salisbury and the hcapper put him up to 108 from 97.why they ruin a good mark for a bit of black type is beyond me.
    He then ran down the field at ascot and this year ran twice unplaced at Meydan.the first of those two runs i thought he ran well and didnt have the best of runs.the next time i put him up on my thread and he was disappointing but the good thing is hes been dropped to 99.
    Im confident he can win a good hcap,hopefully this one.

    I bought the weekender today and see paul kealy has tipped it,so its only 20s now
    Last edited by Outsider; 19th April 2018 at 11:19 PM.

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  5. #924
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    The Long Shot Thread

    2.40 Ayr
    Great Fighter is 8lb higher than his last winning mark (15lb higher than when winning this race last year) but ran a decent enough race in last year’s Swinton behind a very well handicapped John Constable off today’s mark. Started off well on the Flat last summer before being found out in stronger more competitive races from July. Not having run since September tempers enthusiasm a bit but he wouldn’t be 20/1 without that absence

    Expected a better run from Indian Stream yesterday


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    Last edited by viking; 20th April 2018 at 12:01 PM.

  6. #925
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I have a few longshots today and will put them up over the next couple of hours as and when I get them on (waiting for the best prices). It's a heavy day for punting thanks to the excellent but difficult card at Ayr. It would just about pass for a Festival card. At Newbury the only race of interest from a betting perspective is the Spring Cup, which is where the first longshot runs.

    Nwb 3.45 Master Carpenter 40/1 (ew, 5pl) - this one is really only sickness insurance. I can’t see him winning, to be honest, and his record at the trip and first time out say even 40/1 probably isn't value. I suspect this is his prep for York but he is ridiculously well handicapped, as he had been when winning there last spring, by five easy lengths off this mark, but that was over an extended 10f and I don’t imagine he still has the speed for a mile, if he ever did. He’s probably in decline but if he’s showing some old spark at home, who knows? And why is Atzeni booked when any of the trainer's usual bob-a-job jockeys could have been gifted a riding fee for breezing him around in midfield? Anyway, his rating went up to 110 when he was in his pomp and he gets into this off 95.

    It looks like I'll be having two others in the race, both of which I reckon have serious chances of winning but Master Carpenter appears to have been nibbled at, going blue in a couple of places, so I thought I'd get this in early.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 21st April 2018 at 7:11 AM.
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  8. #926
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    Two long shots for me in the Scottish National today. I expect Alzamaar to run much better than his 66/1 odds. He's looked a much better horse for fences and being stepped up in trip. He ran over trips as far as 14f on the flat, so it could well be that a marathon trip may bring out further improvement, and he'll love this quicker ground. I also suspect he's thrived for a switch to a smaller stable, as he'd lost his way slightly beforehand, and he looks to be in good form again now. Callum Bewley is a very good young claimer, and his three pounds means Alzamaar carries a featherweight 9st12lb. Bewley also rides Ayr well. It's a competitive race, but the Scottish National has thrown up plenty of surprises in the past. I've taken 50/1 ew 6 places with 365.
    Last edited by Maruco; 21st April 2018 at 8:16 AM.

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    The other one I feel is overpriced is Beware The Bear who is available at 25/1. He ran a nice enough race to finish fourth behind Coo Star Sivola in the Festival Chase at Cheltenham, and has the added bonus of the handicapper dropping him a pound for that. Nicky clearly feels he's one for marathon trips given he ran him in the 4 mile amateur chase at the 2017 Festival, where he finished just behind the places despite making a bad mistake and the rider losing his irons. He ran well when he won in bad ground earlier in the season, but he seems pretty versatile with regards underfoot conditions, and it may be that he needs better ground to get home over 4 miles. 25/1 is a big surprise. I can only assume that people regard him as the stable second string with De Boinville on Gold Present, but Jerry McGrath generally rides him, and De Boinville usually rides Gold Present so I doubt there was a choice to be made. I don't doubt GP has a very good chance but the trip is a big unknown and worryingly he bled at Cheltenham. I prefer Beware The Bear at such a big price.
    Last edited by Maruco; 21st April 2018 at 8:19 AM.

  10. #928
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Two long shots for me in the Scottish National today. I expect Alzamaar to run much better than his 66/1 odds. He's looked a much better horse for fences and being stepped up in trip. He ran over trips as far as 14f on the flat, so it could well be that a marathon trip may bring out further improvement, and he'll love this quicker ground. I also suspect he's thrived for a switch to a smaller stable, as he'd lost his way slightly beforehand, and he looks to be in good form again now. Callum Bewley is a very good young claimer, and his three pounds means Alzamaar carries a featherweight 9st12lb. Bewley also rides Ayr well. It's a competitive race, but the Scottish National has thrown up plenty of surprises in the past. I've taken 50/1 ew 6 places with 365.
    Yep, he's one of mine too, Maruco, for similar reasons. Great minds or fools? I was tempted by 66/1 & 6 places with PP but settled for the better fractions (same odds) for 5 places with B365.

    BTB is another possibility for the race and I wouldn't attempt to put anyone off but it's one of those races (10/1 the field this morning) in which loads of them have a chance of sorts and BTB is just one of them.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 21st April 2018 at 8:30 AM.
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  11. #929
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    I find we have similar trains of thought quite often Maurice. I think we take a very similar approach, particularly to seeking out the value horses. It's also been noticeable over the last few years that we tend to latch on to the same races and horses early on.
    Last edited by Maruco; 21st April 2018 at 8:35 AM.

  12. #930
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Great minds, then...

    Moving swiftly on...


    Two other longshots in the Spring Cup, each of which I'd argue could have a strong winning chance and are therefore seriously overpriced.

    Keyser Soze 22/1 (ew, 5pl)

    Gabrial 28/1 (likewise)

    Keyser Soze's chance isn’t as obvious as Gabrial's but he was very heavily backed to win the Britannia when last seen and has presumably had a reason for his lengthy absence. If they thought he had the winning of the Britannia, a classier race than this, they must think a lot of him, presumably better than a handicapper, plus he’s entitled to have improved a lot over the winter. He’ll never get into a mega-handicap off his current mark so they’ll want to get him a hike. The worry is that there doesn't seem to be any money for him so maybe today is just a sighter.

    Gabrial was right back in form in the Lincoln so he’s fit and well and up to winning this on that form. The Lincoln was a better race than this. Again, though, I'm not detecting anything positive in the market.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 21st April 2018 at 9:24 AM.
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  13. #931
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Ayr 4.40 Sky Khan 20/1 (ew 4pl) - He was on a nice curve in the spring of 2016 (third in the Martin Pipe and fifth, giving weight, at Punchestown to Anabale Fly) and saw his mark rise to 140. He couldn’t beat carpets since but he’s had the winter off and could surprise if anywhere near his old level.
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  14. #932
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    ... and lastly (honest!!)...

    Ayr 4.05 Sizing Codelco 33/1, ew 5pl - seriously well handicapped on his best form and a lot better than his figures (and letters) suggest. The other Sizing (Tennessee) is actually my main bet in the race but doesn't quite qualify but is even better handicapped on the pick of his form. How about a forecast, even?

    Ayr 4.05 Henri Parry Morgan 25/1 - this is just some sickness insurance (win only to coffee money) because it owes me. But for all the world he looked like a 160 horse when just getting competitive in the Whitbread a couple of years ago but he fell and his form never really recovered. I suspect he might either win or blow out again, probably the latter but he does owe me.

    Good luck all with all your longshots today. I'm off out for the day and won't be around again until some time tomorrow, afternoon probably.
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  15. #933
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Ayr 4.40 Sky Khan 20/1 (ew 4pl) - He was on a nice curve in the spring of 2016 (third in the Martin Pipe and fifth, giving weight, at Punchestown to Anabale Fly) and saw his mark rise to 140. He couldn’t beat carpets since but he’s had the winter off and could surprise if anywhere near his old level.
    Back to the previous conversation, I also backed Sky Khan this morning, although I didn't put it up as I backed it at 16's. My two main bets in the Scottish National were Ballyoptic 16/1 antepost, and Sizing Tennessee at 16/1 this morning at, so we are definitely in sync today.

  16. #934
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    Running total

    Win -3
    Place -3
    = -6

    Nottingham 6.15 - Duggary 28/1(WH, 25s PP/Lads)

    I'm going to take a chance on this one tonight I'm the 10f C6 handicap at Nottingham tonight. Was probably seen to best effect in his last run of last season over 10f on soft ground at Pontefract, running on to be a never nearer 7l 5th to Mark Johnston's Austrian School.

    Providing he's wound up sufficiently here I believe he can go well off a mark of 62. Ran in some warm maidens behind the likes of White Mocha and Wells Farhh Go and whilst fairly beaten he wasn't disgraced.

    This race looks fairly weak to me and I think Kevin Frost's charge can step his form up a level as the season progresses. He could just be a bit of value today. Im willing to put a line through his penultimate run where I'm assuming he didn't handle the all weather.

  17. #935
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Back to the previous conversation, I also backed Sky Khan this morning, although I didn't put it up as I backed it at 16's. My two main bets in the Scottish National were Ballyoptic 16/1 antepost, and Sizing Tennessee at 16/1 this morning at, so we are definitely in sync today.
    Unlucky,good shout both of you and i followed you in.ran a cracker.
    Last edited by Outsider; 21st April 2018 at 4:53 PM.

  18. #936
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    Has any c*nt had a horse placed yet? seriously have they?
    Formely Fist of Fury

  19. #937
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Has any c*nt had a horse placed yet? seriously have they?
    Stick to your even money shots.

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    Navan 3:45 Captain Midnight. 20/1.One of the best handicapped horses in the field. This Bushranger gelding has served connections well down the years and usually goes well early-season. He had a pipe opener just four days ago which I view as a positive. Georoid's onboard . These amateurs are always desperate to prove themselves when they manage to get their leg over. Marble Copyrighted 2018.
    Last edited by Marb; 21st April 2018 at 7:48 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Great minds, then...

    Moving swiftly on...


    Two other longshots in the Spring Cup, each of which I'd argue could have a strong winning chance and are therefore seriously overpriced.

    Keyser Soze 22/1 (ew, 5pl)

    Gabrial 28/1 (likewise)

    Keyser Soze's chance isn’t as obvious as Gabrial's but he was very heavily backed to win the Britannia when last seen and has presumably had a reason for his lengthy absence. If they thought he had the winning of the Britannia, a classier race than this, they must think a lot of him, presumably better than a handicapper, plus he’s entitled to have improved a lot over the winter. He’ll never get into a mega-handicap off his current mark so they’ll want to get him a hike. The worry is that there doesn't seem to be any money for him so maybe today is just a sighter.

    Gabrial was right back in form in the Lincoln so he’s fit and well and up to winning this on that form. The Lincoln was a better race than this. Again, though, I'm not detecting anything positive in the market.
    2 nice places there.well done.

  22. #940
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    For Tanlic's benefit, 28/1, 22/1, 20/1, and 16/1 places today. You're a pretty harsh critic when you're on the Thai Grog.

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