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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #701
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    Thanks marb; might have missed that one [I back all of Adams horses, especially if he's riding for Kirby]. How many horses have they got in those Irish races today? Not like our 2/4 runner races....

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  4. #702
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    ...so close Marb! [darnit]

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    Quote Originally Posted by moehat View Post
    Thanks marb; might have missed that one [I back all of Adams horses, especially if he's riding for Kirby]. How many horses have they got in those Irish races today? Not like our 2/4 runner races....
    Unlucky

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  6. #704
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Doncaster 3:30 Nautical Nitwit 20/1 each way.

    This one had been campained during the summer and consequently probably lost his form towards end of 2017. Therefore the two month break is a positive and should help the cause. His winning form is on decent ground, so the ground should suit. His previous winning marks, (off the top of my head) were 120, 125 and 129, so 130 is a fair-enough mark. He might be the each way horse in the race at 20's. A lot could depend on how well the progressive types do, especially the Emma Lavelle trained favourite.
    Top pick Marb and I'm hoping you put two and two together and had a couple of quid on the fc.
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  7. #705
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Well done Marble - he ran a cracker
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  8. #706
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    Missed this. Been out all day since the crack of my back.

    Good shout, Marble
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    Cheers you lot, thought I had it nailed on the win there, I really did.

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  11. #708
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    I plan to back a few longshots in the Betfair Hurdle but in the meantime I'm sneaking this one in before the prices dip.

    Win double: Saphir Du Rheu 4/1 & Value At Risk 100/30 (Warwick) = 20.65/1

    Both Saphir Du Rheu and Native River have to overcome near-year absences in likely soft ground but Cloudy Dream is too far behind them in the ratings to make him worth chancing. However, there is no way on Godís green earth that a) Native River should be ahead of Saphir Du Rheu in the betting or b) that they should be so far apart in the betting. I had planned to leave the race alone but at 9/2 (available on Friday afternoon) Saphir Du Rheu, despite concerns about readiness in this ground, simply merits a bet. He got an RPR of 164 when hacking up in heavy at Kelso last season so he does go in it but he might have been fitter then although with the Gold Cup only a month away he should be almost ready at this stage. Heís 6lbs better off with Native River for their good Gold Cup runs and Iím convinced SDR was merely using that race as a prep for the National. That isnít the case this year and heís tongue-tied for the first time. His price is simply wrong.

    Iím hoping Iíve stumbled across a little bit of value in this race with Value At Risk. He was a pretty decent hurdler but obviously fragile. Since most hurdlers tend to be a fair bit better over fences Ė Total Recall is an extreme example Ė there has to be the chance that Value At Risk might be able to win this cosily.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 10th February 2018 at 11:10 AM.
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    In a race like the Betfair Hurdle I always try to hoover up a wee bit of value on over-priced longshots and this renewal is no different.

    I really do think Irish Roe will win but I'm hoping the following will out-run their odds by some way:

    Divin Bere 40/1
    Charlie Parcs 40/1
    Nietzsche 40/1
    Project Bluebook 66/1


    If I were a bookie I'd be reluctant to offer any more than 20/1 for any of them.

    JP McManus usually likes to target this race but the last time he had as many reps none came close. Charli Parcs caught my eye when running up to High Bridge in the Gerry Fielden. The bare form didnít quite amount to what he had done as a juvenile but he looked a lot better than the bare form. Heís 3lbs better off for 1ľ lengths with High Bridge before taking Ned Curtisís claim into account. I had to look up his record but heís 7/27 for Hendo this season, mainly in under-the-radar types of races but thatís a pretty good strike rate. Soft ground might be a concern for the horse, though. Other 5yos who I think might still show improvement from their juvenile season are Nietzsche, Divin Bere and Project Bluebook, second, third and fourth respectively in the Fred Winter and not much higher here. I took 40/1 Divin Bere earlier in the week purely on the price. Nichollsís only runner in the most valuable handicap hurdle of the season surely shouldnít be that kind of price.
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    Betfair Hurdle - Lough Derg Spirit 28/1 - I've found form lines through Flying Tiger that could be interpreted, my selection is better handicapped than Irish Roe? He also has the look of a horse whose rating has been look after for a race such as this.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Catterick 3.05 Justforjames - 33/1 StanJames 22/1 general - looks to be on a nice mark on his hurdles form and this race looks more his level - trainer does well at track. Two average runs in better company makes his price look tempting to me.

    I'm counting Lough Derg Spirit as a winner as bookies were offering 6 places although I only got 25/1 - 1/5odds
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Cassivellaunus went from 50/1 to 16/1 in the space of a few minutes in the last at Plumpton. I caught it as it had gone into what I thought was 40's but it had gone in again to 33 by the time my bet went through. Somebodies made a bob or two on that one! Couldn't believe it when I saw it's price ended up at 16's.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moehat View Post
    Cassivellaunus went from 50/1 to 16/1 in the space of a few minutes in the last at Plumpton. I caught it as it had gone into what I thought was 40's but it had gone in again to 33 by the time my bet went through. Somebodies made a bob or two on that one! Couldn't believe it when I saw it's price ended up at 16's.
    That was one someone put up last time wasn't it?

    I was following that yard trying to catch Pulsating right for what felt like forever. Can't stop winning now for Archie Watson.

    Someone associated definitely likes a wager or two.

  20. #714
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Plumpton 4.25 Cassivellaunus backed at 100/1 although 80/1 best price now
    The time of his last race I think was very good for the going and already there are signs it was a good race and may pay to follow runners from it. My selection finished 9th btn 38L.
    Miss Tynte Ė who was held up in midfield but fell at the 5th finished 2nd on her next start
    Mr Magil who was tailed off last Ė led to 3 out on his next start before weakening over 3f further.
    Abbey Street Ė who was 10th btn 48L Ė finished 2nd on his next start in a slightly better hícap than this.
    Age Of Wisdom Ė who finished 7th btn 33L Ė won over 2m on the all weather on his next start, although he was entitled to at 1/5.
    My one worry is the selection had a hard race but that is offset by the odds today. He may race prominently enough to get in a decent lay for a free bet?
    Oh No moehat!! I put this up l/t/o and didn't see it today even though it was in my e-mail tracker, I never checked as always busy at work Mondays Absolutely gutted and definitely time for me to take a break. Until Cheltenham.
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Oh No moehat!! I put this up l/t/o and didn't see it today even though it was in my e-mail tracker, I never checked as always busy at work Mondays Absolutely gutted and definitely time for me to take a break. Until Cheltenham.
    Unlucky Chef, knew I'd seen mention.

    Forget about it. Can't be on them all, as much as we'd like to be.

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    I knew there was a reason why I kept going back to it and it was niggling at me; then, when I read the write up about it I couldn't convince myself to back it, until the price started to come in. I was, of course, obsessed with listening to Plumpton today cause Ding Ding was running again. I backed Harmonize for the Triumph at 100/1 yesterday in case she won today; connections really want a Cheltenham runner but don't know if she'll get in?

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    I can't provide any bombproof rationale, but The Compeller (Musselburgh 3:30) is the best long shot tomorrow. Rated 65 in Ireland on the flat, he ran two decent races in juvenile hurdles at the end of 2015. He lost his form after that, was pulled up on his reappearance, but maybe that was a fitness sharpener. This weak race looks tailor made for him to come back-to-form for the Grand National winning trainer. 20/1 each way. The proof will be in the pudding.
    Last edited by Marble; 14th February 2018 at 12:01 AM.

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  25. #718
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    Good luck Marb.

    I'm at work on my break so can't post reasoning atm but will try to at some point although it's not that hard to figure out. In what could turn out to be the real national trial at the weekend over at Ascot I can't help but feel Carole's Destrier has and outstanding chance. 33/1 with a few firms and ive split a rather tusky bet across a couple of those.

    Have a look see what you think fellas and I'll post my reasoning when I get chance.
    Last edited by Danny; 14th February 2018 at 5:19 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Good luck Marb.

    I'm at work on my break so can't post reasoning atm but will try to at some point although it's not that hard to figure out. In what could turn out to be the real national trial at the weekend over at Ascot I can't help but feel Carole's Destrier has and outstanding chance. 33/1 with a few firms and ive split a rather tusky bet across a couple of those.

    Have a look see what you think fellas and I'll post my reasoning when I get chance.
    Makes a lot of sense Danny. 2lb lower than when finishing 2nd in the Hennessy 2016 and only 3 runs since. Trainers stable tour suggest The National is the seasons target for this horse, so below par performances are unsurprising. Now the weights are out trainer can let him loose.

    Trainer "He will go straight for the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury and he had a racecourse gallop last week in preparation for that race. He is very good and finished second in the Hennessy last season when having his first run of the season. We are going to do the same again this year and long term we are looking at the Grand National for him."
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  29. #720
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    Obviously a well-handicapped horse who shouldn't be 33/1 for any handicap chase if he's fit, well and trying.

    I would worry about a slog in a bog for a prep though. Will probably end up with some sickness insurance as he's been on my radar for a long time.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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