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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #741
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    7.15 Kempton Yeah Baby Yeah - 20/1 with Corals, Laddies and Paddys.

    Just chancing this one with a decent draw and the first time tongue tie. May need a class drop before it shows best but off a light weight for Josie Gordon I think there are worse bets on the card.
    Nice call Dan well done.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Lingfield 1.45 Lord Condi 22/1 & Bard Of Brittany 25/1
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  4. #743
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Might as well sneak this one in here before the price goes...

    As mentioned in its own thread, I've backed Theatre Territory (ew) 20/1 for Saturday's RUK Chase at Kempton.

    I can't see the price lasting long after today. Then again, I thought Irish Roe would be as low as 7/2 for the Betfair

    I really think that race against Mister Whitaker might be very hot form, possibly better than handicap form. The worry is that

    a) the race might leave a mark (in which case she might not run)
    b) she is a mare and Irish Roe reminded me of the dangers in backing mares in open company, although it was open company last time.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 19th February 2018 at 4:58 PM.
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  6. #744
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    Spes nostra in the lucky last at wolves seems a reasonable bet. Course distance winner who likes it around here. Fanning up. 50-1 is tempting for such an appropriately named horse.
    Last edited by Nonannyimfine; 20th February 2018 at 8:08 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nonannyimfine View Post
    Spes nostra in the lucky last at wolves seems a reasonable bet. Course distance winner who likes it around here. Fanning up. 50-1 is tempting for such an appropriately named horse.
    Good luck Nonannyimfine. I had my eye on Steal The Scene for this thread from thst race but something was nagging away and I didn't pull the trigger. Not got prices to hand so not sure if it's still a qualifier.

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    Not to be tonight. Spes Nostra ran well but died in the last furlong. The long shot to be on turned out to be Indian Affair! Ah well onwards and upwards.

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    Holiday magic 310nc

    25/1 is too big for this horse.
    Finished 2nd to suzis conniseur in this race last year and is 5lb lower and has a 7lb claimer on.

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  12. #748
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Might as well sneak this one in here before the price goes...

    As mentioned in its own thread, I've backed Theatre Territory (ew) 20/1 for Saturday's RUK Chase at Kempton.

    I can't see the price lasting long after today. Then again, I thought Irish Roe would be as low as 7/2 for the Betfair

    I really think that race against Mister Whitaker might be very hot form, possibly better than handicap form. The worry is that

    a) the race might leave a mark (in which case she might not run)
    b) she is a mare and Irish Roe reminded me of the dangers in backing mares in open company, although it was open company last time.
    Not all bookies are priced up this morning but I see Theatre Territory is best-priced 12/1 and as low as 9/1.

    Two positives, then: I look like getting a run for my money and I look like beating the price.

    Well, it's a start
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  14. #749
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    I've backed Theatre Territory on both her last 2 runs at Cheltenham so will have to do so again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Not all bookies are priced up this morning but I see Theatre Territory is best-priced 12/1 and as low as 9/1.

    Two positives, then: I look like getting a run for my money and I look like beating the price.

    Well, it's a start
    Mentioned this on the other thread, DO. It could be a red letter day for you tomorrow, with Theatre Territory. Good luck! I'm more than happy to join in at current prices.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Two qualifiers in the Eider.

    Portrait King 33/1 and Smooth Stepper 20/1

    Smooth Stepper
    is my main fancy in the race, backed midweek at 16/1 ante-post (and in a double with Theatre Territory at the same price (288/1 the win, 24/1 the places)) but he's been weak in the last 24 hours and now qualifies for the thread. He was near the top of my ratings and was the only real +p runner. I hoped Danny Cook would opt for him but he’s staying with Hainan. I’m not sure I trust Hainan’s Haydock form. We’ve seen with Bristol De Mai and The Dutchman that it doesn’t always stand up. Smooth Stepper certainly jumped Baywing (10/1 for this) silly last time and could do so again. I would be surprised and disappointed if he doesn’t stay this trip. The only twice he’s tried trips in excess of 3½ miles he’s been held up and maybe that doesn’t suit. Or maybe I’m grasping at straws…

    Portrait King looks a solid marker for the race and could win by default if others fail to perform or improve. He ran really well behind Blaklion at Aintree earlier this season and was an excellent third in the Topham. That might be his big target again but this is more realistic. However, he has to be vulnerable to a younger improver.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 24th February 2018 at 11:48 AM.
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    I've done Silver Tassie 33/1 in the Eider - Better off in the weights than Smooth Stepper - down to a good mark and watching his videos gives me the impression he keeps plodding on at 3m, so 4m may suit?
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  20. #753
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes, Chef. I have him jt second top with PK.

    The problem for me is his trainer.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  21. #754
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Silver Tassie wasn't off an inch. Probably being trained for something like the Ayr National but might not make the cut there.

    Old Portrait King got a brilliant ride but age is probably catching up with him now. Horse and jockey gave it everything.

    My spirits sank when I saw Smooth Stepper held up and out wide. He probably likes to see his fences and probably couldn't afford to chase the pace but once again a hold up ride at this kind of trip has led to being well beaten. Have to assume he just doesn't stay and might be better in small fields.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 24th February 2018 at 4:17 PM.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Happy enough with Theatre Territory's run in third staying on again after hitting a flat spot going to two out. Did easily best of those who raced up with the pace and it will be interesting to see if Simon Rowlands recommends a mark-up. The first and second came from well back, indicating a very fast pace throughout.

    It's been an OK day, punting-wise.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    4.35 Lingfield- Head Space

    Is it time for this old boy to fall in at 10? 25s is work a go to me (Bet365) 20s generally.

    The case for;

    Drawn well on the inside
    Off a basement mark
    A fair claimer taking 7lbs off
    Some fair back-form at the track.
    Ran a fair race behind Jorvik Prince and the likes of Black Truffle in recent runs

    The case against;

    It looks a trappy race as can be expected for the grade with a few other course winners in the field. I'd be keen on Swift Fox with a better draw.

    Happy to chance my arm and hope the old boy can go well off 8.10.

  25. #757
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Two qualifiers in the Eider.

    Portrait King 33/1 and Smooth Stepper 20/1

    Smooth Stepper
    is my main fancy in the race, backed midweek at 16/1 ante-post (and in a double with Theatre Territory at the same price (288/1 the win, 24/1 the places)) but he's been weak in the last 24 hours and now qualifies for the thread. He was near the top of my ratings and was the only real +p runner. I hoped Danny Cook would opt for him but he’s staying with Hainan. I’m not sure I trust Hainan’s Haydock form. We’ve seen with Bristol De Mai and The Dutchman that it doesn’t always stand up. Smooth Stepper certainly jumped Baywing (10/1 for this) silly last time and could do so again. I would be surprised and disappointed if he doesn’t stay this trip. The only twice he’s tried trips in excess of 3½ miles he’s been held up and maybe that doesn’t suit. Or maybe I’m grasping at straws…

    Portrait King looks a solid marker for the race and could win by default if others fail to perform or improve. He ran really well behind Blaklion at Aintree earlier this season and was an excellent third in the Topham. That might be his big target again but this is more realistic. However, he has to be vulnerable to a younger improver.
    Well done with Portrait King & Theatre Territory - nice picking.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Magicinthemaking 900k 20/1

    An eyecatcher for me a couple of races ago and last time ran as if 7f will suit,but will be dropped 3lb for future races so maybe i should wait for that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Magicinthemaking 900k 20/1

    An eyecatcher for me a couple of races ago and last time ran as if 7f will suit,but will be dropped 3lb for future races so maybe i should wait for that.
    Backed into 12s but now its off,we'll never know.

  29. #760
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Another quiet day today - no bets at all last weekend - and only one qualifier which I reckon most people would have been able to guess.

    Gassin Golf (Imperial Cup) 25/1 (taken)

    This old fella really needs no introduction hence my reckoning he'd have been easy to guess. He's clearly not as good as when officially rated 141 three seasons back but he doesn't need to be. He only needs to be as good as in the first half of last season when third to Remiluc when he was off 136. He obviously remains fragile as he tends to run two or three times than have a break. He showed a wee bit more last time and now runs for the fourth time in two months, three of which have been at this course. It's the first time he's done so since early 2014. I just wonder if they think he has one last hurrah in him in a race in which he has been second and third before.

    The penalty for Cheltenham isn't going to be an issue as he won't get into any of the handicaps there.

    He isn't my main bet in the race but worth a pop at the price.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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