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Thread: Ante-Post - Flat 2017

  1. #141
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    Easy winner, Euro. Good stuff!
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  3. #142
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Ha ha, not really. My bet on Spain Burg last Sunday was terrible.

  4. #143
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    If the betting list at oddschecker right now is anything to go by, neither US Army Ranger nor King Bolete runs on Saturday.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  5. #144
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    See you all in October!

    Arch Villain is my Ceserewitch, anti-post horse.
    He ran an excellent trial yesterday, when finishing fourth at 50/1.
    He also gave weight and a beating to Sea Of Heaven last season at Ascot, who finished third in Sweet Selections Ceserewitch. Arch Villain has plenty of good form in the book, with a clear preference for going right-handed. I'll be chipping away at the price, from now until early October. I'll need things to go right, the main thing is that he gets there on the day, but assuming he does, I'm confident enough.
    Last edited by Marble; 27th August 2017 at 7:36 PM.

  6. #145
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Aljazzi's win in the Atalanta a stonking form boost for Qemah who is well overs at 7s for the Matron. She would have beaten Roly Poly at Deauville with a better ride

  7. #146
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Also taken 8s about The Tin Man for Haydock last week. Poor at Newmarket I'm gonna forgive him that run. His rep as an Ascot horse is bogus as he would have been within a length of QR in this last year but for being tardy out the gate. I'm hoping for some rain to slow Harry Angel down.

  8. #147
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    I'm wondering what day they run the Bronze Cup at Ayr, is it the Thursday, Friday or Saturday? Obviously to run in it you must not make the cut for both Gold and Silver Cups. Im guessing it's run on the Saturday. Anyways, I'm hoping, borderline preying Stanghow will run that weekend. As honest a lower grade sprint handicapper out there as you'll find. I reckon I'll get an excellent run for my money with Stanghow. I haven't had a penny on Arch Villain for The Ceserewitch yet. I may divert some funds for Stanghow, especially if he gets declared for This Bronze Cup in under a fortnight. Fingers crossed.
    Last edited by Marble; 9th September 2017 at 8:46 PM.

  9. #148
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    Friday I think.

  10. #149
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    Yeah it is. I've just done some research as well. Stanghow is ranked 138 in the list for the Ayr Gold Cup. That makes me think he has no chance of running in any of these Cups, but after looking at previous renewals, he would definitely get in The Bronze, probably carry top weight there, but he may actually sneak in off a light weight in The Silver Cup, so it could be either. Oh its so exciting this isn't it - waiting for a horse you actually rate to run in a nice handicap!
    Last edited by Marble; 9th September 2017 at 9:41 PM.

  11. #150
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    It is. Hopefully Simcock intends Polybius for the Portland

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  12. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Yeah it is. I've just done some research as well. Stanghow is ranked 138 in the list for the Ayr Gold Cup. At first that makes me think he has no chance of running in any of these Cups, but after looking at previous renewals, he would definitely get in The Bronze, probably carry top weight there, but he may actually sneak in off a light weight in The Silver Cup, so it could be either. Oh its so exciting this isn't it - waiting for a horse you actually rate to run in a nice handicap!
    The only fear is it coming up soft ground. He's a good ground horse on all known form, so anything softer than Gd/St would balls his chance right up.

  13. #152
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    Most of Stanghows form is at 5F, so there's a question mark about him at 6F. For that reason I'd rather he went for The Bronze Cup, even though he'd carry a higher weight. The most important thing is the opposition he will face, and I'd feel a lot more comfortable backing him in The Bronze than The Silver Cup.

  14. #153
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Getting towards the arse end of the season now and it's been a good one for me and I still have some live positions.

    Shanghai Glory @ 14s for the Ayr Gold Cup. One of the reasons I've had a good season is because I've largely stopped watching racing from the gaff tracks as I felt I had too many tracker horses last year, too many bets. So I've run a tighter ship this year with fewer email alerts. With that in mind I wouldn't normally watch Ripon but I do make an exception for the Great St Wilfred and SG ran a very eye catching race in this, similar in outcome to Intisaab's last year - speaking of that horse he went into my tracker last year after Ripon, his trainer took him to Ireland on ICW weekend a week before the Ayr meeting and so he ran poorly (too much travelling in too short a time) in the Silver Cup and I removed him straight away. He then ran a good race behind Librisa Breeze over 7 at Ascot before winning a back end handicap at York at 14/1- with me not on. A by product for of having too many tracker horses is the tendency to remove them prematurely when one is not doing so well. A mistake I won't be making again.

    My Arc possie looks iffy with Brametot an unlikely looking runner and Waldgeist ruled out but I have a nice price (24) on the machine about Zarak and also have Cracksman and Ulysees at 10s. There was a rick in the l'Opera a few days ago with Stan James pricing up Sobetsu at 12s despite their competitors having her at 9/2 and 5s generally. Price taken.

    I also have a couple of bets set for Champions Day. I almost fucked up big style in the ICS - I looked at the field, decided Churchill would win so didn't do any more digging beyond a small each bet on Cliffs of Moher. I actually thought Poet's Word was a Godolphin horse because of the name (they've had at least two Poets' recently I'm sure.) This despite the fact that I backed Royal Artillery when he was behind him at Chester and Second Step when the Stoute horse beat him at Goodwood. It must be my age. Thank god he didn't win in Ireland because I was impressed with him at Goodwood (I might have to start a tracker just for group horses, a separate account. Anyway, I took 12s about him for Ascot as the race will feature a lot of beatable animals who have had long seasons. I also think Ascot's stiff finish will suit him. My other bet is Taareef in the QEII. This is kind of more speculative because he's not a guaranteed runner but I do think he might be better on decent ground so I've backed him in the hope we get it. He's had a quiet season compared to Ribchester and I think he has reversal claims.

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  16. #154
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    I think there could be some juice in putting some APOB horses together in an antepost multiple-Lancaster Bomber caught my eye last night as a breeders cup mile contender and Caravaggio looks overpriced at 8s for the Abbaye.

  17. #155
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    LB was very well in at the weights yesterday.

  18. #156
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    Ayr Gold Cup cancelled.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  19. #157
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    I've dipped some toes in the water for the Cambridgeshire.

    I've had a look at most of the horses down to entry #50.

    I plan to finalise the figures over the next couple of days but came up with five I like the look of at this stage. Two of them, Leshlaa and Belgian Bill, are not in most lists so I've left them alone on the presumption that they won't be running.

    The three that are left (for now) I have backed ante-post, win only, to modest stakes to get me up and running.

    Yattwee (Godolphin) - lightly raced 4yo, made his seasonal debut just at the start of this month in a conditions race and the ratings round about him point to the possibility of it being better than handicap form. Plenty of 33/1 going.

    Bravery is now a few pounds lower than when a smart-looking winner of the Lincoln. It's possible this has been the plan since then. Plenty of 40s around.

    Battle Of Marathon - has been seriously disappointing this season until running much better last time (after the weights had been allotted). Was on a curve last year in better races and, now off 97, has come down 12lbs this season and 13lbs since only 16/1 in a G2 at Asot last summer and he's 10lbs better with GM Hopkins for 3/4L in a Listed race at Ascot last spring. 50/1 in places.

    Fingers crossed I at least get a run!
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 25th September 2017 at 7:50 PM.
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  21. #158
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    I'm going to have to extend my study.

    Entry #50 is now 37th in the field after the 5-day decs and with a max field of 35 the chances are a fair few will come out before the final decs on Thursday.

    Last year the bottom-rated runner was off 89. The ratings range was up to 112, 23lbs in all. Back in the day it was 35lbs (10-0 to 7-7) whereas in last week's Ayr Gold Cup you weren't guaranteed a run at the five day stage if you were rated 100. This is much more the norm in the biggest heritage handicaps nowadays so it could be argued that the Cambridgeshire remains the most open handicap of the entire year, Flat or NH.

    Meantime, I need to head back down the form mines...
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  23. #159
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    2 I like at decent prices for the cesarewitch.
    Snow falcon 25/1 Sky bet
    Byron flyer 33/1 bet365

  24. #160
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    Marble asked me to post this for him, while he is spending some time away from the forum

    The Henry Candy trained Greenside looks a very good miler on best form and an interesting entry in The Balmoral next week. This gelding is lightly raced enough having had just 11 starts, but this hasn't stopped him winning four starts thus far, and he boasts a 33 + percent strike rate.

    One very eye catching win was at the back end of last season at headquarters, (last October in fact), where he beat Makzeem a length giving that fella three pounds. Makzeem is of course a horse who has fast improved from 87 to 105 this season, winning a couple of handicaps along the way, and finishing off with a outstanding effort when fourth in The Challenge Cup last week at Ascot off a career high mark. So this makes Greenside look a very well handicapped horse for The Balmoral handicap at Ascot on Champions day in ten days time.

    I see him going off probably half the current odds of 25/1. Fingers crossed that Henry Candy will run the horse, as he has a great each way chance. Won on soft and fast ground, so there are no major ground concerns, though his very best form is on good to firm so that is what I'm hoping for. Balmoral Handicap, Ascot... Greenside 25/1 each way.

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