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Thread: Ante-Post - Flat 2017

  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Don't forget the horse that was sixth this day, trained by David Barron, called Twin Appeal has been entered up for a race on Friday night and Saturday afternoon at Newcastle. This is the strongest tracker in my tracker list and I'll be hammering him in when he runs with a cricket bat and a 12 inch nail.
    I might even go to Gosforth Park Saturday to watch if declared!
    Last edited by Marb; 24th July 2017 at 2:30 PM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I took 10/1 September for next year's Oaks the other night. If it wins something like the Fillies' Mile it will be half those odds. Anyway, just seems a good price even this far out but this is a 2017 thread so...

    I'm off on holiday later this week so will miss Saturday and the first couple of days of Goodwood.

    However, I've crunched some numbers and I think when people realise that in the Gigaset on Saturday Viscount Barfield is 10lbs well in (he went up 13lbs for Chester but only has a 3lb penalty) the 10/1 will disappear. It was 14s last night but I held off in wait for today's decs.

    In the big mile hcap at Goodwood I've stuck with Master The World (20/1). He was just denied by the good thing Franklin D last year despite having little luck in running and looks a year-long plot, showing his best form of the season the other day.

    I've also backed the double.
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  4. #123
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    Golden Apollo entered in Sky Bet Dash at York Saturday. He's still progressing isn't he.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I took 10/1 September for next year's Oaks the other night. If it wins something like the Fillies' Mile it will be half those odds. Anyway, just seems a good price even this far out but this is a 2017 thread so...

    I'm off on holiday later this week so will miss Saturday and the first couple of days of Goodwood.

    However, I've crunched some numbers and I think when people realise that in the Gigaset on Saturday Viscount Barfield is 10lbs well in (he went up 13lbs for Chester but only has a 3lb penalty) the 10/1 will disappear. It was 14s last night but I held off in wait for today's decs.

    In the big mile hcap at Goodwood I've stuck with Master The World (20/1). He was just denied by the good thing Franklin D last year despite having little luck in running and looks a year-long plot, showing his best form of the season the other day.

    I've also backed the double.
    I took 25s September for the oaks.im only a small gambler.i just need to live that long.lol

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    Barely qualifies as ante post, especially as it's now NRNB but I felt compelled to take the 20s e/w about Benbatl after today's final decs.

    It's hard to see him beating Enable but I don't think the older horses are up to much and he'll love the ground, unlike the Ballydoyle pair.

    Edit: and immediately cashed out and re-staked with Laddies at 25s
    Last edited by wilsonl; 27th July 2017 at 1:15 PM.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  7. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Don't forget the horse that was sixth this day, trained by David Barron, called Twin Appeal has been entered up for a race on Friday night and Saturday afternoon at York and Newcastle. This is the strongest tracker in my tracker list. I'll be hammering him in with a cricket bat and a 12 inch nail when and wherever he runs.
    Twin Appeal declared 2:05 York.. Saturday, will check out the opposition and the race later.
    Last edited by Marb; 27th July 2017 at 5:39 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    With a mixed weather forecast I think it's worth having a go at taking Highland Reel on next Saturday. Enable I doubt runs, Idaho is too tight and Ulysees confuses me a bit. I could dismiss him as a 10f animal but he should relish 12f on pedigree - on balance his poorish run in the POW relative to his Eclipse win is enough to put me off and so I've taken a flyer on Jack Hobbs. He was a lot poorer than Stoute's horse in June but 10f on quick ground is far from his optimum. A bit of cut over 12f is what he needs and he has two high class efforts over the last year or so to suggest he is good enough if back to his best. I don't really bother with Dubai form so I'm sort of hanging my hat on his excellent effort in the Champion Stakes last October where he stayed on really well from a poor position behind Almanzor and Found. 13/2 is fair and the race will cut up.
    with enable lining up highland reel now looks a solid e/w play at the price. can't have him out of the frame. hopefully see 5s with 365 tomorrow morning given their e/w terms.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Twin Appeal declared 2:05 York.. Saturday, will check out the opposition and the race later.
    10/1 or thereabouts is a nice price. I see this horse as a winner. 10's is almost an each way bet.
    Last edited by Marb; 28th July 2017 at 2:22 PM.

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  11. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    I've taken a flyer on Jack Hobbs. He was a lot poorer than Stoute's horse in June but 10f on quick ground is far from his optimum. A bit of cut over 12f is what he needs and he has two high class efforts over the last year or so to suggest he is good enough if back to his best.
    I'd ignore his POW run altogether. The Hardwicke was always his Royal Ascot target, and he only ran in the shorter race when they knew the ground for the whole meeting would be against him. Held up, off a none too generous pace, that fast gound 10f was never going to be his bag, and he swerved the Eclipse for similar reasons.
    Showed what he can do over 12f with cut when dotting up at Meydan, and the filly really has to be something special to beat him.
    Last edited by reet hard; 28th July 2017 at 7:21 PM.

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    She is/was. Ulysees ran a cracker though and is 25s in a place for the Arc. Not going in though as I think Stoutey might have the Breeders Cup more in mind as his target.

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    Was there today, stellar performance in tough conditions and there was a big crowd there to witness it. Ulysses would have been a good winner in another year but he met one right out of the top drawer.
    I'm clever enough to ask the questions i'm too stupid to answer

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    In the big mile hcap at Goodwood I've stuck with Master The World (20/1). He was just denied by the good thing Franklin D last year despite having little luck in running and looks a year-long plot, showing his best form of the season the other day.
    Get fvcking in there!
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    Nice one Maurice.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Twin Appeal declared 2:05 York.. Saturday, will check out the opposition and the race later.
    Twin Appeal runs over the mile (which he wants I think) tomorrow at Thirsk in 4:00.
    Last edited by Marb; 4th August 2017 at 5:03 PM.

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    I've been snaffling anything over 5.5 about Ulysees on the machine for the Juddmonte. The extended mile and a quarter should really suit him and he's become overs since Churchill was confirmed for the race. I fear Barney Roy and will find some sort of protection with him but can't have the Guineas winner over this sort of test.

    More long range I found Fabre's comments about Al Wukair pre race quite interesting yesterday. He basically said he needs 10f now but the soft ground would mean the Marois would be ok. If you watch the race back he didn't travel as well as Thunder Snow but found loads and yeah, it looks like 10 will be his optimum. With that in mind 16s for the Champion Stakes (Ascot version) seems generous.

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    I have no idea about running intentions or likely going or whatever but I've taken two ante-post bets at nice prices for the Ebor (to half-stakes).

    US Army Ranger (25/1) - AOB only has two in the top 40 in the weights at this stage and the second of them is 40th so might not get in. US Army Ranger started the season on 119 having been 120 for the Derby on my ratings (121 officially) last season. He's been arguably in decline since then. He couldn't land the odds in a G3 (10f) a couple of runs later and couldn't get close in the Champion Stakes at Ascot. He's been basically disappointing this season for a Derby runner-up but this is G1 prize money and I wouldn't be surprised if his campaign this season has been all about getting him down to a mark off which he can win this. Now down to 110, a return to his Derby form would make him a very serious contender.

    King Bolete (25/1) - Roger Varian has a very strong hand with Mount Logan, Battersea and this fellow. Mount Logan is 4lbs lower than his peak rating of last season and will be 4lbs well in as he's been raised to his old mark for his very good second to Frankuus at Haydock last weekend. On that form he's entitled to be thereabouts. Battersea remains lightly raced for his age and was plotted up for this last season and he was beaten only a length and a half for second in a very hot race behind the runaway winner. He's 2lbs lower this time so should run another big race. However, not only do I have King Bolete better in at the weights than either of these two, it's possible he's on a steep curve. He went up 14lbs in two runs last season and I wonder if the plan was hatched then for now. He disappointed on his penultimate run before acting as pacemaker for Postponed in the big race here. A couple of disappointments this season saw his mark drop to 99 which might not have guaranteed his getting in to this race so he came out and beat What About Carlo who subsequently beat several higher-rated rivals in a Listed race at Newbury and the third, Great Hall, was a tidy winner at the Shergar Cup meeting last week. What About Carlo is now 8lbs higher; Great Hall is now 3lbs higher so King Bolete might, by tenuous extrapolation, be about 6lbs well in. I'm prepared to pay to find out.

    I'll almost certainly bet one or two others in the race on the day, or maybe just top up on these two but right now I like them.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 20th August 2017 at 6:05 PM.
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    I'm still not convinced anything below Shrewd will make the cut come the day and O'Brien's runner alongside Shrewd in the weights has come out at the five-day stage. The two bets are still in but enthusiasm for King Bolete is tempered by the news that Atzeni says he's riding Battersea.
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    I’m going to try Spanish Steps each-way (Gt Voltigeur) today as he might just be on a very steep curve now. His RPRs have gone from 75 to 108 in five runs, improving 9lbs, 12lbs, 5lbs and 7lbs with each outing. Another 7lbs’ improvement will give him every chance of being second at worst.

    I’ve also stuck a half-point each-way on him for the St Leger at 40/1 just in case he runs very well here. If the worst comes to the worst he can end up emulating his namesake of the late sixties and early seventies and go for the Hennessy a few years down the line!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I have no idea about running intentions or likely going or whatever but I've taken two ante-post bets at nice prices for the Ebor (to half-stakes).

    US Army Ranger (25/1) - AOB only has two in the top 40 in the weights at this stage and the second of them is 40th so might not get in. US Army Ranger started the season on 119 having been 120 for the Derby on my ratings (121 officially) last season. He's been arguably in decline since then. He couldn't land the odds in a G3 (10f) a couple of runs later and couldn't get close in the Champion Stakes at Ascot. He's been basically disappointing this season for a Derby runner-up but this is G1 prize money and I wouldn't be surprised if his campaign this season has been all about getting him down to a mark off which he can win this. Now down to 110, a return to his Derby form would make him a very serious contender.

    King Bolete (25/1) - Roger Varian has a very strong hand with Mount Logan, Battersea and this fellow. Mount Logan is 4lbs lower than his peak rating of last season and will be 4lbs well in as he's been raised to his old mark for his very good second to Frankuus at Haydock last weekend. On that form he's entitled to be thereabouts. Battersea remains lightly raced for his age and was plotted up for this last season and he was beaten only a length and a half for second in a very hot race behind the runaway winner. He's 2lbs lower this time so should run another big race. However, not only do I have King Bolete better in at the weights than either of these two, it's possible he's on a steep curve. He went up 14lbs in two runs last season and I wonder if the plan was hatched then for now. He disappointed on his penultimate run before acting as pacemaker for Postponed in the big race here. A couple of disappointments this season saw his mark drop to 99 which might not have guaranteed his getting in to this race so he came out and beat What About Carlo who subsequently beat several higher-rated rivals in a Listed race at Newbury and the third, Great Hall, was a tidy winner at the Shergar Cup meeting last week. What About Carlo is now 8lbs higher; Great Hall is now 3lbs higher so King Bolete might, by tenuous extrapolation, be about 6lbs well in. I'm prepared to pay to find out.

    I'll almost certainly bet one or two others in the race on the day, or maybe just top up on these two but right now I like them.
    I've got an eye on Carntop. I think he's been plotted for something. He stayed on quite well last time, it looked like a stronger pace will be right up his street. Of course he'll need to have improved and trained on since then, but you never know.
    Last edited by Marb; 23rd August 2017 at 3:28 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    I've been snaffling anything over 5.5 about Ulysees on the machine for the Juddmonte. The extended mile and a quarter should really suit him and he's become overs since Churchill was confirmed for the race. I fear Barney Roy and will find some sort of protection with him but can't have the Guineas winner over this sort of test.

    More long range I found Fabre's comments about Al Wukair pre race quite interesting yesterday. He basically said he needs 10f now but the soft ground would mean the Marois would be ok. If you watch the race back he didn't travel as well as Thunder Snow but found loads and yeah, it looks like 10 will be his optimum. With that in mind 16s for the Champion Stakes (Ascot version) seems generous.
    Very well done,impressive by you and the horse.

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    Euro knows his stuff alright.
    Last edited by Marb; 23rd August 2017 at 3:43 PM.

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