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Thread: Ante-Post - Flat 2017

  1. #41
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    How is St Michel now Officially rated 112, after running in the Ceserewitch off 97 and being well beaten?!! How did that happen?
    Last edited by Marble; 24th April 2017 at 11:40 AM.

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  3. #42
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    He was assessed for the Ces' before his run in the Doncaster Cup.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    I've taken 7/1 about Lightning Spear for the Lockinge. This horse goes well first time out, rates better than the bare result in the QEII where he covered more ground than Ribchester/ Minding and is just a bit underrated. I fear Ribchester the most of the oppo - he seems more progressive than Galileo Gold - of the Ballydoyle entries I don't see this race in the past as being one they target so would doubt Alice Springs and Minding both turn up. The former seems more likely and her form is just that bit behind the colts.

  5. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    I've taken 7/1 about Lightning Spear for the Lockinge. This horse goes well first time out, rates better than the bare result in the QEII where he covered more ground than Ribchester/ Minding and is just a bit underrated. I fear Ribchester the most of the oppo - he seems more progressive than Galileo Gold - of the Ballydoyle entries I don't see this race in the past as being one they target so would doubt Alice Springs and Minding both turn up. The former seems more likely and her form is just that bit behind the colts.
    I'm inclined to think that there was a definite track bias at Ascot on Champions' Day last year - basically, the nearer you were to the far side, the better - and that Lightning Spear was disadvantaged. So, I've followed you in on him for the Lockinge and I've also backed Brando for the Diamond Jubilee at 12/1. The case for him is straightforward: he is being aimed at the race, he has already shown his wellbeing this season with a comfortable win at Newmarket last week, he goes well at the track - excellent runs in last year's Wokingham as well as the Champion Sprint - and his form and time credentials are very solid indeed. His Ayr Gold Cup win last season off 110 was an outstanding piece of handicap form and his subsequent close third in that Champion Sprint could well have been a win if his jockey had made his effort sooner and if he'd been racing nearer the winner, The Tin Man. Dangers abound, of course, and in addition to The Tin Man, Limato will be a huge danger if he comes back to his best but double figure odds about Brando look on the generous side.

  6. #45
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    The Derby 201/ Bet365 Capri.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  7. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    The Derby 201/ Bet365 Capri.
    What's the motive Chef? Form pick or information?

  8. #47
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    What's the motive Chef? Form pick or information?
    Someone has told me he is working very well and expected to win the Derringstown Derby trial on Sunday before taking in the Derby. I don't know how good the info is but he gave me an 8/1 winner yesterday so there's hope.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  9. #48
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    I'm with you Chef and took the SKyBet 25s about a week ago.

    Out of all the Galileo's AOB has entered this year, this one has a stouter pedigree than most if not all and is absolutely sure to be suited by the setup up in trip, whereas the likes of Churchill and Cliffs Of Moher have more speed on the Dam's side - which isn't necessarily a bad thing given the sire but I'd still prefer to see more of a stamina influence from the female line.

    He went off odds on in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud over a 10f trip when he hit the line well and it's always easy to forgive one of Aiden's first time up so I pay little attention to his run in the Ballysax, when Seamie said afterwards that he rode like the best horse in the race but didn't get the run of things and was only pushed out hands and heels in the end.

    If he runs at Epsom, and the indications are that he will, he'll be considerably shorter.

    Venice Beach is the other one that interests me for Epsom but he appears to have his quirks and that's not the place to demonstrate those.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  10. #49
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    I've taken 8s on Saturday and 6s today about Al Wukair in the SJP. It's kind of a free bet in essence - if Churchill runs the wager is paid for by the lay I have on him for the Derby. And if he misses and runs at Epsom I have a monster value bet.

  11. #50
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    Three firms have priced up the 'Boodles diamond handicap' sprint on Wednesday. Confessional, at 10 years of age could be value at 14-1. I think he's due a win and has won round here before.
    Last edited by Marble; 8th May 2017 at 8:03 PM.

  12. #51
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Talk about Al Wukair going for the PDJC. ******* idiots, he's by Dream Ahead.

    I've taken 6/1 about Big Orange in the Yorkshire Cup. Trip and course perfect for him and his main opposition carry penalties. The two market leaders Muntahaa and Dartmouth I'm not convinced about tripwise with the latter and formwise with the former. I'll be loading up the selection when he's declared with a view to a partial IR lay given his running style.

  13. #52
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    That Rivet would be some tool over 7f. I'd love to back him in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    I've just punted Dream Castle for that. Haggas hinting he might re-match the winner in the Jockey Club.

    And with Al Shaqab buying into Brametot surely they don't need him and Al Wukair in the Jockey Club.
    Last edited by Euronymous; 14th May 2017 at 3:50 PM.

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  17. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    I've just punted Dream Castle for that. Haggas hinting he might re-match the winner in the Jockey Club.

    And with Al Shaqab buying into Brametot surely they don't need him and Al Wukair in the Jockey Club.
    Fair play for being on top of all this stuff. Do you think Rivet gets a mile?

  18. #55
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Oh yeah, he got it as a 2yo. 10f should be his trip. The front three pulled well clear today and I think he would have been closer ridden with more restraint, the other two came from the back.
    Last edited by Euronymous; 14th May 2017 at 10:03 PM.

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  20. #56
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    Agree with Euro, hasn't the pace of a true miler, which is why he was ridden as he was yesterday, and why he lost the Craven (and why Eminent was overrated). Be some horse over 10f though, imho.

  21. #57
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    Taken some 8/1 Marsha for the Temple Stakes
    To a massive extent your relying on a dry week leading up to next weekend as the 3 in front of the filly in the betting are
    Profitable, Quiet Reflection who we know loves the cut in the ground and Acapulco who won't run.
    The Temple is the logical step on from the Palace House on the road to the Kings Stand so she should be a likely runner also.

  22. #58
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    Good luck, Fonz.

    Goldream ran well first time out and is a danger to all.

    A horse that could run in Ireland on Saturday, and seems to be rated lower than what its probably worth is Czabo. She came right back to form last time, when beating the Aidan O Brien filly, Somehow. Czabo is owned by the Magniers/David Wachman, trained by Mick Channon, which is an interesting trainer/owner combination. She hasn't been raised for beating Somehow, who is rated 15lb superior to her. I reckon Czabo is an eyecatching entry in The Royal Hunt Cup. She'll need it soft, which she's unlikely to get in mid-June, but you never know. Its happened a few times before. 40/1 with Ladbrokes, worth considering.
    Last edited by Marble; 26th May 2017 at 7:36 AM.

  23. #59
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    I'll be at Haydock tomorrow and have backed Waady for that race. His optimum conditions are 5f on fast ground which he should get. Didn't run that well fto but that was over 6 and he was too free. Was third in this last year and double figures is overs.

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