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Thread: The 2017 Grand National

  1. #141
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    We'll soon be getting to the stage where the bookies are throwing out PR red herrings to get gullible lemmings to join in hopeless gambles too...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  2. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I really don't think that's right, Aughex (but I'm not looking for an argument, I'm just saying), I'm pretty sure SB went up the 10lbs for winning the National. I know they've been operating different scales (with some converging) for some time. Last year Any Currency was running in regulation races off a mark in the mid-130s but when he ran in the X-C he went up to the high 150s.Heads Onthe Ground won the X-C from SB off 126 yet three runs later was running at Punchestown in another X-C race off 116. No wonder the BHA wanted their own evaluations.Can you direct me to concrete evidence that SB went up the 10bs for the X-C race? As I say, if he'd been 10lbs well-in at aintree I'd have been all over him a lot more heavily than I was! Does anyone keep back copies of the RP going back that far? If so, in the Postdata section they list which horses are well-in or badly-in and by how many pounds.
    How economic is Phil Smith being with the truth although anyone can make mistakes? He said he dropped Cause of Causes to 150 but he ran off 142 according to the Racing Post last week, so presumably will be going up 13lbs rather than 5lbs. Although he was rated 150 for the National for some reason, must be the Aintree factor. Regarding Silver Birch, unfortunately got rid of my old Racing Posts but have no recollection of him being well in for The National, something I used to check regularly for previous Nationals, he certainly wasn't listed as +10. It's hard to believe any horse would start at 33/1 with it well known he was 10lbs well in. Maybe Phil Smith kept it to himself till after he won the National, after all he's always been loath to give any revised marks to Irish horses untill they are entered in a race here. He never gave a revised mark to Rule The World last year although the Irish handicapper did.

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  4. #143
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    Who do we think will go off favourite ?

    I'd be reasonably confident that the two vying for it at single figures prices will be Pleasant Company, once Ruby's name is next to him and Definitely Red. The latter likely to carry the money of every Liverpool and Man Utd fan within a 50 mile radius (that'll be both about five of them then).
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    My shortlist form horses: Saphir Du Rheu(-), Shantou Flyer(a), Pendra(-), Foxrock(-), Vieux Lion Rouge, Le Mercurey(a-), Double Shuffle(a), Tenor Nivernais(-), Definitly Red.

    (-) - I have doubts about trip.
    (a) - young horses that could find the race too hot.

    I've backed Shantou Flyer at this stage, closer to the race depending on ground conditions will go in again on one of these.

  6. #145
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Who do we think will go off favourite ?

    I'd be reasonably confident that the two vying for it at single figures prices will be Pleasant Company, once Ruby's name is next to him and Definitely Red. The latter likely to carry the money of every Liverpool and Man Utd fan within a 50 mile radius (that'll be both about five of them then).
    I'll be shocked if Vieux Lion Rouge isn't one of the hottest favs in years.

  7. #146
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    I had a look for some outers last night, and landed on about 5 of interest...........and none of them were under 11yo.

    I have VLR and Definitely Red onside in terms of price. I will probably stick with those, and invest my time in the other races at the meeting.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  8. #147
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    Vieux Lion Rouge (just for Truncheon) and Definitly Red are the two I'm with too Grass. I backed them a while back but don't have fancy prices. 14/1 and 20/1 respectively I think.

    The former requires no further investment but I will press up again near the day on Definitly Red in the hope 365 give me some of my money back to reinvest elsewhere.

    I don't see a boil over in this year's race so will keep it pretty simple and have smaller interests on something like Ucello Conti and One For Arthur too. I will also not let Cause Of Causes go unbacked either and they'll probably be my five.

    I threw a haymaker at Lord Scoundrel a while back at a huge price but the sulking brothers Grimm took him out so I'll give up on trying to land another.

    Unlike 10+ years ago I tend not to expend too much effort on this race and I'll focus more on the supporting races
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  9. #148
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    Nothing fancy in terms of price on my side either, Lee - 20's the pair.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  10. #149
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Bishops Road

  11. #150
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    I'll be shocked if Vieux Lion Rouge isn't one of the hottest favs in years.
    Which also has red in the title.


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    Your typical p1$$ed up punter on track isn't going to know that though Bear and unless their local Uxbridge boozer's called The Red Lion it's not going to entice them the same way as Definitly Red would.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 23rd March 2017 at 3:23 PM.
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  13. #152
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    BetVictor to go NRNB and an industry leading 6 places from March 31st according to their latest app update


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    I've never been able to pick the winner in the national but most times have had a place or two. This year I'm going to try something different (as after all this race comes down mainly to luck more than anything else), for the past few years I've bet on 5 horses. So this year (when final declarations are announced) I'll break the horses down into groups of eight (first five in betting, second five in betting and so on), then go over stats, trends and forms. Hopefully I'll have more success than other years, worst case scenario none place

  15. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by redcat1 View Post
    worst case scenario none place
    A wonderfully pragmatic approach.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  16. #155
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Your typical p1$$ed up punter on track isn't going to know that though Bear and unless their local Uxbridge boozer's called The Red Lion it's not going to entice them the same way as Definitly Red would.
    Names do not dictate whats favorite, Betfauir does.

  17. #156
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Your typical p1$$ed up punter on track isn't going to know that though Bear and unless their local Uxbridge boozer's called The Red Lion it's not going to entice them the same way as Definitly Red would.
    I was being flippant. A bad habit of mine!


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  18. #157
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Bishops Road is a Bay Gelding, which also has Red in it

  19. #158
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by redcat1 View Post
    ... as after all this race comes down mainly to luck more than anything else..
    Couldn't be more wrong.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  20. #159
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    You were long odds on to bite at that Dessie

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  22. #160
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    If we're using pub names, Blaklion has pretty much the same chance as Vieux Lion Rouge. Don't see how you can back one and not have a saver on the other.
    The older I get the better I was.

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