Page 1 of 19 12345611 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 362

Thread: The 2017 Grand National

  1. #1
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts

    The 2017 Grand National

    Entries closed yesterday and due to be announced here later
    Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 1st February 2017 at 1:36 PM.

  2. #2
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts
    Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 1st February 2017 at 1:40 PM.

  3. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Diamond Geezer For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (1st February 2017), edgt (1st February 2017)

  4. #3
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts
    Weights out tonight

  5. The Following User Says Thank You to Diamond Geezer For This Useful Post:

    Grasshopper (14th February 2017)

  6. #4
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts
    Chris Cook of The Guardian with an educated guess at the weights


    So it’s ‘Grand National weights’ day, which means I’ve had my annual go at guessing what Phil Smith will do with the 110 entrants for this year’s race (to be run in April, for those who don’t know). My guesses are below, while Phil will unveil his definitive rulings on the subject during a ballyhoo at the V&A tonight. In theory, it should be pretty predictable because all the British-based horses have published handicap ratings which Smith will almost certainly stick to. The only room for doubt concerns the Irish runners, as well as those Brits who’ve run recently and might have their rating adjusted up or down.
    In practice, it’s trickier because the weight for each horse depends on his mark relative to the top-rated animal. Pick the wrong horse for the top spot or rate a horse wrong near the top of the weights and you’ll find that everything below will also be wrong in consequence. To complicate matters, Smith compresses the top end of the weights for the National, so as to give the classy horses a fair chance, though he’s been weaning himself off that system in recent years and I suppose the day will come when he declares it’s no longer necessary.
    Anyway, with all of those caveats, here are my predictions, which should be broadly accurate as to order, at any rate, if not as to exact weights set for each horse. Where there are significant differences, it will mean that either Smith has done something interesting or I’ve done something daft. No guesses, please, as to which is more likely.



    11-10 Outlander
    11-9 Empire Of Dirt, Don Poli, Champagne West
    11-8 Carlingford Lough, More Of That
    11-7 The Last Samuri
    11-6 Alary, Alelchi Inois
    11-5 Foxrock, Minella Rocco, Road To Riches
    11-4 Otago Trail, Saphir Du Rheu, Shantou Flyer
    11-3 Clarcam, Devils Bride, Lord Scoundrel, Perfect Candidate, Sausalito Sunrise
    11-2 Carole’s Destrier, Lord Windermere, Wonderful Charm
    11-0 A Toi Phil, Blaklion, Bless The Wings, Drop Out Joe, Tenor Nivernais, Tiger Roll, Wounded Warrior
    10-13 Le Mercurey, Maggio, The Game Changer
    10-12 Cause Of Causes, O’Faolains Boy, Regal Encore, The Young Master
    10-11 Definitly Red, Double Shuffle, Houblon Des Obeaux
    10-10 Ballynagour, Roi Des Francs, Ucello Conti, Just A Par, Junction Fourteen, Pleasant Company, Vivaldi Collonges
    10-9 Bishops Road, Cocktails At Dawn, One For Arthur, Saint Are, Vicente, Ziga Boy
    10-8 Gallant Oscar, Raz De Maree, Vieux Lion Rouge
    10-7 As De Mee, Goodtoknow, Pendra, Shutthefrontdoor, The Romford Pele, Seventh Sky, Vics Canvas
    10-6 Gas Line Boy, Measureofmydreams, Triolo D’Alene
    10-5 Doctor Harper, La Vaticane
    10-4 Stellar Notion, Thunder And Roses, Tour Des Champs
    10-3 Knock House, Rogue Angel
    10-2 Hadrian’s Approach, Highland Lodge, Sambremont
    10-1 Benbens, Potters Cross, Straidnahanna, Viva Steve, Vyta Du Roc
    10-0 Cloudy Too, Lamb Or Cod, Milansbar, Polidam
    9-13 Beeves, Streets Of Promise
    9-12 Royale Knight, Sizing Coal
    9-11 Alvarado, Alfie Spinner, Emperor’s Choice, Goulanes, Milborough, Out Sam, Mountain King, The Crafty Butcher, Vieux Morvan
    9-10 Dare To Endeavour, Father Edward, Katenko, Samingarry, Silver Man
    9-9 Federici, Lessons In Milan, Racing Pulse, Waldorf Salad
    9-8 Dromnea
    9-7 Gone Too Far
    9-6 Killer Crow

  7. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Diamond Geezer For This Useful Post:

    edgt (15th February 2017), Grasshopper (14th February 2017)

  8. #5
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    Can anybody remember a horse being entered for both the Supreme Novices and Grand National in the same season ?

    Step forward Pleasant Company. Supreme, Neptune, Albert Bartlett and Grand National

    Does Willie just enter every horse eligible from the yard in the festival novice races ?. #NewHeights
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  9. #6
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts
    Announcement of weights to be streamed live on Facebook


    From RP

    HE weights for the £1 million Randox Health Grand National, the world's most iconic horserace, will be unveiled on Tuesday evening. Here's how you can access all the crucial information. What is the Grand National weights ceremony?
    It's one of the most eagerly awaited events in the jumps year, at which Aintree takes the wraps off the order of handicap for the world famous steeplechase. It is a plush occasion attended by past and present winners of the race and connections of those hoping to be next onto the National podium.
    How does it work and can I follow?
    For the first time this year the weights allocated to runners have been closely guarded and will be known only to BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith and select others. Connections will not discover their horse's weight until they are revealed in countdown form at Tuesday evening's ceremony. Previously connections would find out their horse's weights immediately on arrival, but Aintree wanted to add more drama to the occasion.
    The countdown will start at 8pm with weights announced from bottom to top in blocks of ten with the final ten announced individually. Aintree will stream the event live on Facebook, while there will be regular updates from the Racing Post on Twitter and on the website.
    Who makes the decisions and how?
    The Grand National is the only race in the calendar for which the BHA's head of handicapping has free rein over what weight he can allocate horses, so Phil Smith has total discretion over the make-up of the race and his decision is final.
    As a result there is an element of uncertainty and sometimes disagreement over the way Smith frames the weights, from the maximum 11st 10lb down, which has invariably involved him compressing the rating of the highest handicapped horses in order to fit as many horses as possible into the handicap with a racing weight.
    Why is it at the Victoria and Albert Museum?
    The weights ceremony is one of the longest running events of its kind and has been staged at some iconic locations, in keeping with the Grand National's status as an iconic race and the V and A is the latest location. With a new race sponsor in Randox Health and a new terrestrial TV partner in ITV, it has been moved to an evening event to try to generate greater media coverage - although print publications will struggle with the later kick-off.
    Where else has it been staged?
    The first Grand National weights lunch was held in 1977 at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in London when the race was sponsored by the News of the World. It has visited nearly every one of the capital's five star hotels since, including the Dorchester, Savoy and Landmark, as well as the Cafe Royal and Bafta Centre.
    During Martell's sponsorship the lunch was held for one year in Cognac, France, when guests were flown from Luton Airport to a ceremony which took place at the brand's distillery.
    More recently it has moved to a new London location each year taking in the the world famous Abbey Road Studios, Royal Opera House, Sky Garden and now the V and A.

  10. #7
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Chris Cook won't be too far out. Saved me a lot of time!!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. #8
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,592
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Chris Cook won't be too far out. Saved me a lot of time!!
    Can't see what weight he has Vieux Lion Rouge at.

  12. #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Waterford
    Posts
    8,253
    Thanks
    265
    Thanked 317 Times in 251 Posts
    In 1995 the year before he was runner up in the National-Encore Un Peu was entered in the National and all the novice hurdles and chases at the festival -he was probably entered in a few handicaps for good measure.

  13. The Following User Says Thank You to LUKE For This Useful Post:

    wilsonl (16th February 2017)

  14. #10
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Can't see what weight he has Vieux Lion Rouge at.
    10st 8lb

  15. #11
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    680
    Thanks
    73
    Thanked 89 Times in 49 Posts
    They need to rethink the format or timing of this if they want to continue streaming it in real time - the live feed is 80% Ed Chamberlin trying to shush pi$$ed up diners/drinkers. No one is listening and it's hard to hear some of the panel comments. I'm relying on Twitter's updates instead.
    Last edited by Cruella; 14th February 2017 at 9:51 PM.

  16. #12
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Posts
    642
    Thanks
    20
    Thanked 108 Times in 79 Posts
    Weights here

    http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/n...nal-at-Aintree

    Blaklion, Cause of Causes and Vicente stand out for me

    I think Cause of Causes is the one, will be of great interest to see which race he runs in at the festival

  17. The Following User Says Thank You to Truncheon For This Useful Post:

    Grasshopper (15th February 2017)

  18. #13
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,592
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts
    Very happy with the 66/1 I've got on Vieux Lion Rouge. Won the Becher, form over the course, and was running a belter last year until the ground took it all out of him.

    Currently 20s, I'll be sticking a few more quid each way.

    Cause of Causes as someone said above is also an interesting one.

  19. #14
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    680
    Thanks
    73
    Thanked 89 Times in 49 Posts
    Elliott said when interviewed immediately after the weight reveal that Outlander will not run.

  20. #15
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    680
    Thanks
    73
    Thanked 89 Times in 49 Posts
    At this stage my long list consists of Foxrock, Cause of Causes, Definitly Red, Ucello Conti, Vieux Lion Rouge and O'Faolains Boy.

  21. #16
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,592
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts
    Does that then mean the ones below all go up a pound or 2 then? This confuses me.
    Could an owner not enter his top horses to then get the one he wants the ideal mark?

  22. #17
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Location
    Greater Manchanster
    Posts
    42
    Thanks
    10
    Thanked 16 Times in 15 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Does that then mean the ones below all go up a pound or 2 then? This confuses me.
    Could an owner not enter his top horses to then get the one he wants the ideal mark?
    The top weight on race day will always carry 11-10 and weight will go up accordingly. His OR though will be what is set today, and all those below top weight will rise exactly the same.

    This means if Champagne West was to be top weight on the day everything will go up by 1 pound. Any below 10 stones will be given 10 stones automatically.

    Another extreme example is Blaklion on 10-10 if he was to be top weight on day then everything rises 1 stone.

    A owner might employ such tactics proving that the horse in question has got 4th or better in a chase of 3 miles or further by March 21st, the second elimination stage, but it could equally work against him and is not fair to the top weight if that's the only reason he's kept in.

  23. #18
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    I've only just done a copy of the weights and will trawl through my figures over the next week or so but one is jumping out of the page and slapping me Tony Scapone style ("Going My Way" is the film referenced) and that one is Road To Riches.

    A possible Gold Cup winner off 155???? Seriously???????

    Last year's winner Rule The World wouldn't be anywhere near his class.

    Knowing my luck, though, it won't run.

    (It will make the perfect tabloid headline too!)
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 15th February 2017 at 10:07 AM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  24. #19

  25. The Following User Says Thank You to Diamond Geezer For This Useful Post:

    Grasshopper (15th February 2017)

  26. #20
    Senior Member Kauto Abu's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Ireland
    Posts
    1,922
    Thanks
    413
    Thanked 369 Times in 214 Posts
    From Racing UK;


    Don Poli, favourite for the Randox Health Grand National with most bookmakers, is a doubtful runner according to Eddie O'Leary.

    O'Leary, racing manager for his brother Michael's Gigginstown House Stud, claims British Horseracing Authority Handicapper Phil Smith has been too harsh on the Gordon Elliott-trained eight-year-old.

    A dual Cheltenham Festival winner when trained by Willie Mullins, Don Poli has finished second in the Lexus and third in the Irish Gold Cup on his last two outings.

    Gigginstown won the Grand National last season with Mouse Morris' Rule The World but the then nine-year-old was retired swiftly after as connections felt he would never be given a fair crack of the whip in future Nationals.

    Gigginstown is responsible for three of the top four in the weights for the Aintree showpiece but Elliott has already ruled top-weight Outlander out of the race, Empire Of Dirt has either the Ryanair or Gold Cup at Cheltenham as his main aim and it now appears there is little chance of Don Poli heading to Liverpool.

    O'Leary told the Irish Independent: "Gordon has announced Outlander would not run, the simple reason he was given far too much weight - a higher mark than any horse who ran in the race in recent years.

    "He (Phil Smith) wants to compress the weights so better horses get more of a chance, and that's fair enough. Yet our three top horses got 2lb more from a guy who wants to compress the weights.

    "A handicapper is meant to be impartial. What I'd call the National now is a pre-Brexit, post-Brexit handicap.

    "That denied him (Rule The World) a chance to come back. He's as sound and as fit as could be.

    "We'll run very, very few in the race. Don Poli is doubtful, while Outlander is ruled out. Empire Of Dirt won't go."


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •