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Thread: Novice Chasers 2016/2017

  1. #61
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Relevant statement by Neil Mulholland in RP

    Explaining the early start, Mulholland said: "He's not a winter horse and he won't be running in December or January. We ran him once in January last season to see if he handled the soft ground and he didn't. His last two wins were on good ground and that's what it will be here."
    Shantou Village recorded wide-margin victories at Carlisle and Cheltenham last autumn and, following that defeat to Yanworth in January, Mulholland stepped the six-year-old up to three miles in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at the festival.
    Sent off the 7-2 favourite, Shantou Village was pulled up by Richard Johnson after having been struck into.
    "He was alright after pretty quickly and we were just very lucky it wasn't something more serious," said Mulholland. "He won his only point-to-point so we're very happy with his jumping."

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    Statement from Mulholland this evening

    The plan is September 30 over course and distance (Stratford) and then the 3m novice chase at Cheltenham on October 21.

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    So if he wins at Strattie, he'll go at Cheltenham under a double-penalty?

    They must like him a lot.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Where does it say he's running at Stratford on 30/9?

    There isn't a meeting at Stratford that day I don't think.

    I took it to mean he was back over the same trip at Fontwell.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ivantheterrible View Post
    Where does it say he's running at Stratford on 30/9?

    There isn't a meeting at Stratford that day I don't think.

    I took it to mean he was back over the same trip at Fontwell.
    Yeah, meant Fontwell, sorry

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    He jumped pretty well throughout bar a little scare at the end

    From all the soundbytes, they do really seem to like him
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    That Cheltenham race doesn't normally take a lot of winning and he'd only have to be above average to succeed under a double penalty, Art Mauresque managed it last year.

    It's extremely early days, he beat nothing yesterday and it'll likely be the same at Fontwell and only slightly harder at Cheltenham so I doubt he'll still be 25/1 for the RSA next spring - which is top heavy due to the presence of unlikely runner Thistlecrack (NR IMO at least) - when he'll potentially be 3/3 over fences.

    I find it hard to imagine they'll be heading down the NH chase route.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 26th August 2016 at 9:39 AM.
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    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
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    I agree with nearly everything you say wilsonl (god help me as am considering a festival AP bet in August!), though the race they’re targeting is the 3 miler on the Friday.

    This also doesn't take much winning though, having been won by Shantou Flyer, The Romford Pele and Twirling Magnet over the last few years, all with dbl penalties I think.

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    Yes of course it is Perp - my bad - and as you say, it's just as weak typically.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Perpetual View Post
    I agree with nearly everything you say wilsonl (god help me as am considering a festival AP bet in August!), though the race they’re targeting is the 3 miler on the Friday.

    This also doesn't take much winning though, having been won by Shantou Flyer, The Romford Pele and Twirling Magnet over the last few years, all with dbl penalties I think.

    Aye, and all of the above went onto rip-roaring success thereafter, Perp!

    Shantou Flyer has won once in seven subsequent chase starts, and Twirling Magnet has won two Hunter Chases in 17 subsequent starts.

    TRP won the race on his 8th start over fences as a second-season novice, and went up to 150 for the win. He hasn't been sighted at the business end of a race since, including when beaten off 139 last time out.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    We're talking different circumstances here though Grass. Mulholland has made it clear - as if it wasn't beforehand - that the horse needs good ground, which incidentally makes his heavy ground defeat by Yanworth all the more meritorious.

    So he's deliberately giving the horse an outing over CD for the experience, when he's likely to get his ground before putting him away. Those mentioned never had the same scope as Shantou Village and in all probability were simply making hay until the big boys came out.
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    As above and the point is a dbl penalty shouldn’t be a problem (those were 120 hurdlers, whereas Shantou was 146 & went off fav for the Albert Bartlett)

    I’m smiling as I type though, as am talking myself into a wager, even though I have WRITTEN rule of no Ap fez bets before October. Can’t do too much harm though at 25-1…

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    Granted that's true, Lee........but how many novice chasers can you recall that have had three outings before November, been put away until the spring, and then actually gone on to do anything useful at the Festivals? I can't think of any.

    It's a nonsense way to campaign a horse with pretensions to the top anyway (imho). And the ground argument is bogus. His run behind Yarnworth was very smart, and is probably still the best run of his career to-date, notwithstanding the fact that Yarnworth got turned over at Cheltenham.

    Maybe I'm just a curmudgeon, but SV should be battling it out with them throughout the winter, as far as I'm concerned. Poncing about against boats in the late summer, and then hiding away when the real players re-appear, is a load of old co*ck as far as I'm concerned.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Nothing wrong with a bit of old skool but Mulholland is a canny young trainer and the way I see it is we're likely to have a fresh horse turn up in March, probably having his ground and is 3/3 over fences with a CD to his name - albeit having beaten up inferior opposition.

    At the very least backing him now at 25s is going to give you a great hedging opportunity when he's a single figure price on the day because there's no way he'll be any bigger than that.

    While I'm with Perp in struggling to bring myself to having an AP Cheltenham bet before the St Leger, this is good early one for the e/w multi AP bets.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 26th August 2016 at 11:09 AM.
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    Gigginstown usually have a decent crop for both the JLT and the RSA. I'm looking forward to Alpha Des Obeaux and, in particular, Prince Of Scars. They may prefer the ground on the soft side but both are some way ahead of Shantou Village and Barters Hill on hurdles form.
    The older I get the better I was.

  17. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Nothing wrong with a bit of old skool but Mulholland is a canny young trainer and the way I see it is we're likely to have a fresh horse turn up in March, probably having his ground and is 3/3 over fences with a CD to his name - albeit having beaten up inferior opposition.

    At the very least backing him now at 25s is going to give you a great hedging opportunity when he's a single figure price on the day because there's no way he'll be any bigger than that.

    While I'm with Perp in struggling to bring myself to having an AP Cheltenham bet before the St Leger, this is good early one for the e/w multi AP bets.
    I personally think you and Perp are both suffering from boredom, and that your cash is better staying in your trousers at this stage.

    For staters, there is every chance that SV could end-up running in the JLT, rather than the RSA Chase, and you will have no way of knowing which it is, until after he has had his prep (assuming he gets one) early next year. If he beats up nobodies in his three scheduled runs, his price may contract for both races near-term, but it will almost certainly extend again through the winter, when some of the better novices start to strut their stuff.

    You might have an opportunity to hedge, but realistically, you would need to a) have a bundle on, and b) hope for a significant crash in SV's price, to make it worth the effort. It also ties-up capital that might be better deployed through the season.

    Each to their own, and all that, but even I don't back novice chasers at this time of year! There is practically no upside, as far as I'm concerned.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  18. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    I personally think you and Perp are both suffering from boredom
    You should have quit right there

    But there's a cure; a week today the Charlie Hall and Showcase meeting will be "next month".
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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    Now you're talking. Kerry Nash comes first, mind.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 26th August 2016 at 1:27 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Looks like Yanworth is staying over hurdles. Was looking forward to him going over fences this term

    2m 4f+ route rather than the minimum trip
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    If Barry hadn't covered an extra `mile` going so wide in the Neptune or if Ruby hadn't given Yorkhill the perfect ride, Yanworth would've been seen as a strong CH selection with only Faugheen and Altior as main threats. But instead we got this mess about him when in reality the CH should still be the main target at the start of season. If he wins the FF or Bula then its confirmed, if not only then start talking of novice chasing or staying trips.

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