Ante-Post - Flat 2016

[gus]

The best value I can see in any ante-post market at present is Time Test in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot for which he's 12/1 with Bet365. As with The Grey Gatsby, it's to some extent a punt on the weather as he needs fast ground but there's a fair chance he'll get it and this race is his target. He was tremendously impressive over C&D at the Royal Meeting last year.

I backed Time Test at 10/1 for the Eclipse last night after his Brigadier Gerard win. He's generally 6s for the Prince of Wales's Stakes and the difference in the two prices is hard to understand given that A Shin Hikari will be at Ascot but not at Sandown. Obviously, there may be three-year-olds in opposition in the Eclipse but at the moment it's hard to imagine one going there with better form in the book than that shown by the Japanese horse. I've confidence in Time Test over 10f on fast ground, whatever the opposition, but there's no doubt A Shin Hikari is a credible rival at least.

[Euronymous]

That's a decent shout. I can't fathom why Postponed is turning up in single figures for these 10f events. He simply hasn't the speed for these type races.

[gus]

Looks like Found may well go to Epsom on Saturday for the Coronation Cup, according to the Post site.

6/1 still available.

[Euronymous]

Makes sense to go for that race with Vazirabad out.

I've added Predominance in the Hunt Cup at 25s. His last two runs make the price, he was never put into the Victoria Cup and Chester was never going to be his track. Will be off a night racing weight at Ascot.

[gus]

For reasons given earlier on this thread, I'm with Grand Inquisitor in the Hunt Cup. He was kindly dropped a pound by the handicapper after his Victoria Cup run. 33/1 was available when the weights came out but he's down to 20s now.

[LBM]

Last year Meccas Angel was the outstanding ante-post bet of the year at York. I feel the same way about Quiet Reflection for the Commonwealth Cup. 5/1 is a great price.

[gus]

Last year Meccas Angel was the outstanding ante-post bet of the year at York. I feel the same way about Quiet Reflection for the Commonwealth Cup. 5/1 is a great price.

She was most impressive on Saturday, that's for sure.

It's a very fair price and it would look very good if her main market rival, Acapulco, were to go for the King's Stand. Having initially said he was targeting the Commonwealth Cup, Ward said after her recent win in the States (over 5f) that he was considering his options or words to that effect.

Her running style is such that five is surely her best trip.

I've had a bit on the double at 47/1.

[gus]

Last year Meccas Angel was the outstanding ante-post bet of the year at York.

Well done if you made money on her but I'd have to think long and hard before ever backing her ante-post given her specific ground requirements and her connections' propensity for pulling her out on the day of the race.

[davidjohnson]

For reasons given earlier on this thread, I'm with Grand Inquisitor in the Hunt Cup. He was kindly dropped a pound by the handicapper after his Victoria Cup run. 33/1 was available when the weights came out but he's down to 20s now.

Don't have my notes to hand with regards official ratings for recent Hunt Cups, but remember when looking at it last week and thinking he was a shade of odds against to make the line-up from his mark. Obviously could try and get a penalty with would guarantee him a shot.

[gus]

Don't have my notes to hand with regards official ratings for recent Hunt Cups, but remember when looking at it last week and thinking he was a shade of odds against to make the line-up from his mark. Obviously could try and get a penalty with would guarantee him a shot.

You're right. He wouldn't have got in any of the last three runnings.

It's something I normally have a look at when placing this sort of bet. I can't think why I didn't on this occasion. Perhaps it just looked too high a mark for it to be a consideration.

I'll get my money back if he's declared but misses the cut, of course, but I'm not sure Stoutey is to be trusted on this sort of thing. Quite capable of saying he won't get in so don't bother declaring him.

Still, hope springs eternal.

[gus]

Brilliant weather across the country today but the 10-day forecast suggests there might be quite a bit of rain in and around Ascot over the weekend and in the early part of next week which makes me nervous about my Time Test POW bet and I've taken the precaution of laying some off on Betfair. I have a very high regard for Roger Charlton and have no doubt that he would scratch the horse rather than run him on soft again.

In the light of the forecast I've had a bit on Belardo at 8s for the Queen Anne and on Meccas Angel at 10s in the Kings Stand plus an each-way double on the pair. If it stays fast I've done my money but those prices will look huge if the rain arrives.

And, before anyone comments, I appreciate it undermines my earlier remarks about Meccas as an ante-post proposition. It's small stakes insurance, really.

[Euronymous]

I'll be very upset if the ground is soft next week.

[SlimChance]

Norfolk Stakes

We know that Caravaggio won't run given the market moves this week. If you take him out of the betting than the market is betting to 106.21% and not all of those will run. Given this is likely to be on of the smaller fields of the week I make this market over broke. I can't see how Silver Line can possibly go off 7/1 in this race. None of the four horses he trounced in Nottingham have run since so he appears to be forgotten and completely underrated. I make him around a 3/1 shot for this race. The 7/1 put there is a big overlay. At the very least taking this price will give you leverage on the day.

[Euronymous]

Nice angle.

I've had a go in the without Order of St George market Powers are running for the Gold Cup. They make his stable companion Bondi Beach an 11/4 poke and I can't have him staying. Amongst the scruffs and handicappers in double figures we have Manatee who is by Monsun out of a Galileo mare so looks bred for the job, has decent form behind Vazirabad (apparently delighted connections in the Vicomtesse Vigour when running the Aga Khan's colt to a couple of lengths) The GC is the target by all accounts and 16/1 without the jolly looks a play.

I've also backed Exosphere for the Hardwicke at 4s. Like Slim's bet above this is a race that will cut up and the main oppo to the selection looks like being his stable companion Dartmouth who doesn't look in the same league. I can see him being a Telescope like 7/4 shot on the day.

[Euronymous]

In the light of the forecast I've had a bit on Belardo at 8s for the Queen Anne and on Meccas Angel at 10s in the Kings Stand plus an each-way double on the pair. If it stays fast I've done my money but those prices will look huge if the rain arrives.

Forecast looks really bad so I've followed you in on MA. I'm involved on Ervedya in the Queen Anne and softer ground doesn't bother me too much, can't have belardo whatever the ground.

The POW becomes a nightmare on soft ground.

[Euronymous]

Manatee pulled out at the five day stage. Words fail me.

[gus]

If Quiet Reflection is a true 11/4 shot for the Commonwealth Cup on Friday - I think she just about is - she surely can't be as long as 16s for the July Cup. If she wins this week it would be her obvious next target. She's almost certainly no Muharaar but this year's older sprinters may well lack an out and out star and so she might not need to be. She certainly won't be unsuited by this week's surface but she's not ground-dependent and, all in all, I reckon that 16/1 is more than fair and I've taken it.

[gus]

I'll get my money back if he's declared but misses the cut, of course, but I'm not sure Stoutey is to be trusted on this sort of thing. Quite capable of saying he won't get in so don't bother declaring him.

SMS in fact did the decent thing and declared Grand Inquisitor but he's missed the cut by two.

Is there a reserve system in place for this race?

[gus]

There is a reserve system but GI has in fact missed the cut for that by two.

C'est la vie.

[gus]

In the light of the forecast I've had a bit on Belardo at 8s for the Queen Anne and on Meccas Angel at 10s in the Kings Stand plus an each-way double on the pair. If it stays fast I've done my money but those prices will look huge if the rain arrives.

The rain did arrive and the prices did look huge...