What do the ratings types on here think he will get after Sandown - 180 ? or better .
It's amusing to go back and look what a lot of contributors to Festival previews said about his chance , particularly in Ireland - he has made them look very foolish . I see even back in November Gordon Elliott pronounced he would not trouble UDS.
Henry de Bromhead is no fool in keeping Special Tiara away from him . Will be fascinating to see how Vautour handles going back down to 2 miles .
At 1lb a length, I'd probably have him unchanged from his OR of 175 using Solar Impulse as a marker.
My immediate feeling on watching the race live was that Sprinter Sacre had put up a better performance than at Cheltenham but I had gone low there compared with his career best of a couple of seasons back. On lines with fairly reliable yardsticks in Special Tiara and God's Own a figure in the mid 170s looked right.
On Saturday as he crossed the line something in the mid-180s was going through my mind but in the cold light of day I'm not getting there.
Solar Impulse is only a 149 [OR] handicapper and he was ridden to pick up the place money scraps. He probably got the most efficient tactical ride relative to his ability but I don't have access to sectional times to back up this belief. Rating the race through him brings the winner out on just 175. Un De Sceaux made too many bad mistakes to allow us to rate the race through him; his jumping clearly compromised his ability to run his best race. He had also under-performed at Cheltenham through going too fast. Dodging Bullets and Sire De Grugy have not run well all season and did so again here.
I'm now of the opinion that Sprinter Sacre's best run this season was first time up. At least that's what my figures are saying. But it wouldn't be as cut and dried as that, I don't imagine. Just as Hawk Wing's most visually impressive performance was his Lockinge, let us not forget that on the clock it was only a couple of stone better than the relatively-lowly Lindop. I think we're very much in the realms of efficiency of effort through a race impacting upon overall figures.
I haven't watched the race again since the re-run on C4+1 on Saturday but I remember thinking then that Un De Sceaux and Dodging Bullets were weakening from two out with solar Impulse closing the gap quite noticeably but I'll need to watch it again to confirm or contradict that opinion. I'm not sure Sprinter was quickening away as it had appeared at the time. Again, sectional times might help with that.
But I wonder what kind of odds would be on offer if Sprinter Sacre was to try to give Un De Sceaux 15lbs in a handicap and who on here would fancy which.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 26th April 2016 at 8:15 AM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I agree largely with the previous synopsis, but he finished his race off much better at Sandown despite them going a generous pace. He was tying up in the last furlong or so in his previous two, so I'd give him three pounds for his Sandown and rate him 178.
We might also be in the race-within-a-race syndrome.
We can rate the winner via the likes of Solar Impulse but we can treat the race between Sprinter Sacre, Un De Sceaux and Sire De Grugy as a different one from Solar Impulse v Dodging Bullets and arrive at a much higher rating for the first one. Probably the only sure conclusion is that Dodging Bullets and Sire De Grugy have gone for the time being at least. What chance they end up in the Grand Annual next year?
Illegitimi non carborundum
SDG did win the Tingle Creek ! Dodging Bullets needs to step up in trip .
179
Taking Solar Impulse literally for Sprinter Sacre's rating doesn't work for me. As you said Maurice he was able to run his optimum race which is rarely possible. What is possible is that Solar Impulse achieved his highest rating without being sighted. Given the visual impression SS gave I'm inclined to say that was his best performance of the season and I'd rate him for how he finished his race by comparison to the others.
Also I'm not sure both DG and SDG are gone, and in fact in their pomp I'm not sure they are much better than we've seen this season. They both had it pretty much their own way with no stars around or others on the downgrade when they were Champion Chase winners.
Is that what he's been given or your own view DG?Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer
Edit.
Sorry just seen it DG.
Last edited by Maruco; 26th April 2016 at 9:25 AM.
Yes. It's a shame they don't offer any real justification of their figure. It just looks like it looked his best performance so they've rated it accordingly. I think that's a flawed approach.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Yes, I stand corrected.
I had SDG running to 171, 171 and 168 leading up to Saturday so maybe he can be forgiven one bad run.
DB's profile is less convincing.
Either way ratings around the 171 mark are no big deal for championship contenders. There's no shortage of 3m handicappers worthy of that kind of rating at their best.
Illegitimi non carborundum
It was visually his most impressive win of the season.
high 170s surely , if UDS had not made the mistake SS would rate 180 plus on that win.
I remember Ruby saying a few years back that if he could pick one horse to ride that he hadn't it would be Sprinter
Horse of this season without a doubt. What a champ
Hopefully something of Willie's takes him on in the Tingle Creek next season
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
175 my ar$e 179 Timeform's ar$e.
Lets look back to 23rd April 2013
Sprinter Sacre 188 or V Sizing Europe 166 wins by 5 1/2 lengths Sprinter Sacre unchanged at 188 Sizing Europe up 3lbs 169
April 23rd 2016
Sprinter Sacre 175 V Un De Sceaux 171 wins by 15 lengths and is unchanged by the BHO as far as I can see.?
The time and visually that performance was better than he put up at Punchestown when he came under pressure to fend of Sizing Europe.
The manipulation of numbers used by the BHA and Timeform is complete nonsense at times or at least can be easily challenged
Sometimes they use horses to boost winners and sometimes they use them to downgrade them so it all fits into a little box.
Way too many times they mess up so badly they have to downgrade a performance that should be going up.
In this case the form can't possibly be right UDS must have run a mile below his best because of a mistake and Dodging Bullets ran him close.
The fact Dodging Bullets was ridden to pick up the pieces the form has not been taken into consideration AND the fact he was rated 171 exactly the same as UDS only a year ago has been ignored as has PN said he thought he had him back to something like his best which is not unusual for him when needed..
Sprinter was about to hammer UDS mistake or no mistake. The time of the race was off the chart as I said in another thread 21 seconds above standard faster than Menora.It takes less time to jump the 3 railway fences.
For Sprinter to keep tabs on UDS then quicken as he did he just had to be damn near his best...I would allow a few lbs for the error and have him on 182+
Look back and that's a massive 10lbs plus below what he was once rated by Timeform
Nicky Henderson said after Cheltenham " He'd have be as good as he ever was to do that" What the man must have been thinking after that Sandown performance I can only imagine.
I doubt if he cares or would agree with a 175 for his pride and joy. but to me its an insult to the man's achievment
Formely Fist of Fury
April 23rd 2006 - Foaled 🙂
A young un for his age group !
Geezo he's still a baby got 3 more Champion Chases in him yet
Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
Formely Fist of Fury
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote