I think both Ballydoyle hot pots are opposable if the ground has the word firm in it. Problem is will the powers that be at the track let it get that way - Dubawi arguably lost in his year because the ground was too quick, but a lot of clerks put water on when it isn't necessary. Of course the way the weather is at the moment this could all be moot, but you only need five or six days of dry weather at Newmarket for the ground to be fast.
The 14-day weather forecast is mixed. Certainly, there's no indication of any settled dry spell but, as you say, I don't think Prosser would allow any "firm" in it. Funnily enough, if it were genuinely soft I could see Stormy Antarctic giving Air Force Blue a real race.
As stated elsewhere on here, I basically think Minding is in a different league. In fact, I'd back her to beat AFB over a mile on decent ground.
Air Force Blue has stronger opostion than the fillie
the colt will not have any problem with firm gorund, in fact I think it is a possitive for him
the fillie is a doubt on firm ground, on normal ground or softer is a banker too
I think both will win in style in normal circunstances
There was a fair case given on one of the racing channels that APOB is not near as hard on his fillies this early in the season to be race ready as he is the colts.
that may be a moot point in Minding's case but something to consider none the less.
Bolger on the other hand has them all raring for road if good enough; hoping Turret Rocks wins everything in sight to give our one's page a bit of depth !!!
I've had a small each way double on Turret Rocks and Smash Williams.
How can we get Air Force Blue beat?
No rain leading up to the meeting and they don't water.
Eleanora Duse (18th April 2016)
Slight worry about Turret Rocks. I heard it didn't shine in a gallop with a listed horse the other day. She was very much on my radar. There was interesting Wexford cash around for it.Originally Posted by edgt
I don't normally go for the if the trainer didn't rate her he wouldn't bring her over cliche but with gentleman Jim I kind of do. If she wasn't showing on the gallops he'd either take her to Deauville for the Pouliches (no random draw worry this season) or wait for the Irish 1000.
What and give up the opportunity to hear Aiden say "Now listen he's the best we've ever had"
Formely Fist of Fury
No need to wait, just read today's RP. Stable tour headline; "Air Force Blue is the best two-year-old we've had"
for all the man is at the head of one of the best training establishments in the world he comes across as a complete dickhead at times....Every year we get the same Best we ever had crap
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Formely Fist of Fury
Air Force Blue probably is the best 2-y-o they've ever had to be fair.
Twitter @davidjohnson82
http://www.justgiving.com/David-Johnson82
That's the problem with trying to oppose him right enough.
Last edited by Euronymous; 18th April 2016 at 11:44 AM.
Agreed David but it's a bit like the Boy Who Cried Wolf in that we're so used to hearing these sort of comments that they're often treated with more than a hint of scepticism.
Starting to think this is a case of keep it simple - the double pays a shade under 4/1.
fonz (18th April 2016)
You may be right, DJ, but you are missing the point. If O'Brien would allow his horses to speak for themselves with their exploits on the track that would be fine. But instead we have to put up with this appalling guff virtually every year. I can't be bothered to rejig my past posts on the subject so instead I'll reproduce word for word two I made in 2013. Check out the exact words he used:
"In an ever-changing world, it's nice to know there are at least some constants. Australia, winner of the juvenile G3 yesterday is, according to his trainer, "very special" - apparently, "the lads" were "knocked out by him as soon as they saw him" and "we've always thought there was something very different about him...We really have always thought the world of him...he'd have enough pace for [the Dewhurst]...the speed he started to show at home marked him as a bit special." No mention of his "data" but, otherwise, it's all there. It makes you wonder how they let him go off 5/2 in a four-runner race. Perhaps none of the lads like a bet."
"Update: Australia is "totally extraordinary" according to O'Brien. "Everyone probably knows we always thought he was the best horse we've ever had. I don't want to be blowing up the horse but he was always doing things no two-year-old has ever done before." It's only two years since he had this to say about Camelot: "The boys get all the information every day from the works and the times and they were saying that his work was so exceptional it's hard to believe. In comparison to other horses his data was incredible. He can probably do whatever you want..." In other words, Australia is the best horse they've ever had since the last one and until the next one."
Now we have him on the subject of Air Force Blue: "...in February of last year he was doing things on the gallops he shouldn't have been able to do with the groups he worked with...he was head and shoulders above everything else...he looked exceptional...the best two-year-old we've had...we've been very lucky to have some great horses but when a horse comes along like him..."
As with Australia, I'd simply make this point: if what O'Brien says about Air Force Blue in February last year is true, how on earth did this horse go off three months later at a drifting 4/1 on his debut in an ordinary Curragh maiden? How did I, betting genius that I am, manage to back him (the only time I've ever backed him,the only time he didn't win) the following day at 14/1 ante-post for the Coventry? It is simply inconceivable that a horse who was actually "doing things he shouldn't have been able to...looking exceptional...head and shoulders above everything else" wouldn't have been red-hot in those markets rather than tepid. Unless, of course, all the stable staff at Ballydoyle are kept under Druid's Lodge conditions and the (non-stable) "lads" have gone off betting.
Colin Phillips (19th April 2016), Part time punter (29th April 2016)
Emotionless out. Must have needed my head tested backing one from the blue bin brigade.
This is just wrong. Air Force Blues' form is bombproof. APOB is entitled to say what he wants about the horse, its backed up in the formbook.
It isn't wrong.
My point is not about how good the horse has become. It's about what he clearly was NOT doing at home in the February of his two-year-old career.
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