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Thread: Haydock Betfair Chase weekend

  1. #61
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    What was your view of the pace and time of Irving's race EC? I'll also be interested to see DO's rating of his performance.
    I assume EC and DO realise that the race was run out on the flat course, not the normal hurdle track, and that it meant jumping only eight hurdles instead of nine.?

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    the betfair hurdle is a decent target for Triumph horses imo that seem to need that bit further than 2 mile....that long straight sets more a premium on stamina than a lot of these small field 2m graded hurdle races..the pace is usually stronger as well with lighter weight horses making the pace that bit more telling early and mid race. I'd rather win that than keep getting placed in other races

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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    I assume EC and DO realise that the race was run out on the flat course, not the normal hurdle track, and that it meant jumping only eight hurdles instead of nine.?
    yes..thats why i said its pointless even trying any time analysis on the race

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    Looking back over time it's rare to have several horses come out of a Triumph and make it at the top table. It's not often one does, so to believe that all three are that good is a stretch.

    The truth is Hargam was well beaten, and then also at Aintree. Peace and Co and Top Notch finished pretty close to each other, and I've also had the suspicion that the reputations of the Henderson three scared some trainers off to the Fred Winter when they may well have shown the form up if they'd gone to the Triumph.

    For what its worth I see Top Notch being stepped up in trip, I see them resisting it with Hargam when really they should unless he's completely found out, and Peace and Co sticking to two and going to the Champion Hurdle with My Tent or Yours assuming that one's back to his best.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    I assume EC and DO realise that the race was run out on the flat course, not the normal hurdle track, and that it meant jumping only eight hurdles instead of nine.?
    I didn't realise that DG, thanks. If it's annotated in the form book instalment I'd notice it then but I really only do time ratings for jumps races when there's enough reliable information to hand, which wouldn't have been the case here.

    I imagine Maruco didn't have a time rating uppermost in his mind anyway.

    My immediate reaction is that in beating Fou Et Sage (OR143, rec 2lbs) and Melodic Rendezvous (151, levels) by 11.5 and 9.25 lengths respectively might get him somewhere close to the frame in an ordinary Champion Hurdle but not in a hot one, which might be the case next March. Fans of Top Notch should really be heartened by his run. Considering he's thought likely to be a top 3-miler, this was a very promising reappearance over the minimum trip.

    I have reservations about Hargam. He's now twice not got up the hill at Cheltenham. He might not like uphill finishes; he might not have the stamina for two miles at the top level; I really don't know but I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole at trips in excess of two miles until he satisfies me that my concerns are without foundation.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post

    I have reservations about Hargam. He's now twice not got up the hill at Cheltenham. He might not like uphill finishes; he might not have the stamina for two miles at the top level; I really don't know but I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole at trips in excess of two miles until he satisfies me that my concerns are without foundation.
    I can see why you'd take that view Maurice, but I think the problem is not stamina but pace. He doesn't look sharp enough to beat the best two milers. I think he needs a step up in trip on good ground. It may be that 3 miles is too far and 2 1/2 at Aintree may be a suitable end of season target. Watch him improve beyond all recognition over 2 now I've said that!

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    i've done the sectionals for the betfair and the handicap run over same c/d afterwards. The handicap was a proper test as was the betfair so an overall time comparison is perfectly valid.

    Taken from the first path just after they start..the timings are Cue Card 366.0 and Vieux Lion Rouge 374.9.

    VLR has run to approx 142 OHR level and carried 1 lb less than CC. CC has run 8.9 seconds faster...at that trip on the going each second is worth approx 3.5lbs per second..so CC is 31lbs faster + the lb extra in weight...........making CC running to a OHR level of 174 in winning the betfair.

    That coincidentally is the same OHR level SC maintained when winning the KG last year..but he has been rated 177 at best. Cue Card running to a 174 has equalled his best OHR in winning this and he should be raised to that mark I would think by official handicapper.
    Last edited by EC1; 22nd November 2015 at 9:23 PM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EC1 View Post
    i've done the sectionals for the betfair and the handicap run over same c/d afterwards. The handicap was a proper test as was the betfair so an overall time comparison is perfectly valid.

    Taken from the first path just after they start..the timings are Cue Card 366.0 and Vieux Lion Rouge 374.9.

    VLR has run to approx 142 OHR level and carried 1 lb less than CC. CC has run 8.9 seconds faster...at that trip on the going each second is worth approx 3.5lbs per second..so CC is 31lbs faster + the lb extra in weight...........making CC running to a OHR level of 174 in winning the betfair.

    That coincidentally is the same OHR level SC maintained when winning the KG last year..but he has been rated 177 at best. Cue Card running to a 174 has equalled his best OHR in winning this and he should be raised to that mark I would think by official handicapper.
    Brilliant stuff as ever, EC1, but what if the handicapper puts VLR up by more than three pounds? I'll be surprised if he puts him up by less than 7lbs myself. We'll know by midweek.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Brilliant stuff as ever, EC1, but what if the handicapper puts VLR up by more than three pounds? I'll be surprised if he puts him up by less than 7lbs myself. We'll know by midweek.
    he would then have to put sun cloud ..who has had 29 races..up and the 138 he is on already looks too high..just won off 135..was put up to 140..too high..then dropped to 138 here and that looks about his mark.

    Personally it won't affect my assessment as i would deem anything above 138 as too high for it..which on the day makes winner about 142. Its a matter of what you think a horse can win off..ie its true level..the handicapper puts them up to stop them winning..not to represent what they have shown on the day. If he puts the winner up 7..that doesn't mean thats its level on the day. Lets say he pu it up 10 ..you wouldn't rate CC off it at that level as its been given that to stop it winning..not to represent what it showed on the day.
    Last edited by EC1; 23rd November 2015 at 9:36 AM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    All fair enough, EC1. But I disagree that the handicapper is out to stop anything from winning. He's out to assess each horse accurately. He probably wouldn't use VLR's race to help him assess CC anyway, which is where you gain an edge.

    I had Sun Cloud as an improver going into the race* and he got a trier's ride so I wouldn't have an issue with his being upped three or four pounds for Saturday.

    I tend not to read too much into the odd run below form for an overall improver. It's usually a sign that they have a bigger race in mind somewhere along the way. I suspect Saturday was it for this half of the season.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 23rd November 2015 at 11:05 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    All fair enough, EC1. But I disagree that the handicapper is out to stop anything from winning. He's out to assess each horse accurately. He probably wouldn't use VLR's race to help him assess CC anyway, which is where you gain an edge.

    I had Sun Cloud as an improver going into the race* and he got a trier's ride so I wouldn't have an issue with his being upped three or four pounds for Saturday.

    I tend not to read too much into the odd run below form for an overall improver. It's usually a sign that they have a bigger race in mind somewhere along the way. I suspect Saturday was it for this half of the season.
    I think the handicapper puts horses up top side of their abilty though as he sees it DO tbh.he rarely seems to err on side of caution..rarely..its usually wins a class b..up 7+ etc.

    I think without the time comparison the betfair is pretty tough to handicap..he won't use that obviously..so should be interesting..could use an average race rating in manner that TF do..I suppose..don't know really..the time angle is always my favourite if its possible to do.

    Re the VLR race..it was a pretty demanding pace..Sun Cloud was favoured by how it was run..the horse that has done well is No Planning..can win off 139 on that effort as if it had been away from the front could have finished a lot closer to the first 2..beat other prominent horse 14 lengths
    Last edited by EC1; 23rd November 2015 at 1:13 PM.

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    That's brilliant stuff EC, and thanks for the sharing the work.

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    Generous as always with your analysis, EC1. Good man.

    Not sure if I agree with your thoughts on the handicappers motivation though. If all he was interested in was stopping horses from winning next-time-out, he could just raise every winner 10lbs, and he would have achieved his goal 90% of the time. Admittedly, it's not very scientific, but you don't need to be clever, if "stopping" is all you're about.

    Even I will admit that the handicapper is prepared to work a little harder than this, and I'm broadly in-line with DO's interpretation of what he sets out to do.
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    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
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    CC back up to his highest figure of 172 and VLR now 146

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    The handicapper will look at the race from a number of angles and probably come down on the side of whichever offers the most plausible [to him] interpretation. The distances from first to about sixth will play a part. The more bedraggled the finish the higher he is likely to rate the winner. It can lead to flawed interpretation as a poor race might see a strung-out finish leading to the winner being put up 10lbs+, whereas a higher-class race might see the winner only go up a few pounds.

    The Mackeson was a prime example of the latter. It was a deeply competitive race, strongly run yet he only put Anacotty up 5lbs.

    One of the leading (northern?) trainers bemoaned the situation last year, saying that a horse can go up 10+lbs for winning an ordinary race [by a wide margin] yet the runner-up in something like the Hennessy might only go up 5lbs.

    I think the method is flawed because the majority of horses that contest the top handicaps do so because they have a bit of class and their trainers reckon they are well handicapped. The competitiveness and class of the race often finds out those out of their depth.

    I'll have a closer look at the Haydock form some time tomorrow but as I said I'll be surprised if VLR doesn't go up quite a bit.

    Hang on.. I'll see if the new mark is already on the BHA site...

    OK, looks like I was wrong about him not using the time to compare!

    Because of that I was tempted to put him higher, especially when I did a time comparison with the 3m handicap chase won by Vieux Lion Rouge who is now on 146. The Betfair Chase was run 8.5 seconds faster than the closing handicap, which equates to 34lb on that ground. As Cue Card carried 1lb more I could justify 181 on that basis. I am just not confident of putting Cue Card to such a high figure from a race where none of his opponents ran to their rating.

    So Vieux Lion rouge has gone up 7lbs. At least I was right about that!!

    Edit - I see Perpetual (thanks, P) has added the new ORs while I was typing/checking.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 24th November 2015 at 6:33 PM.
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