Page 17 of 56 FirstFirst ... 7121314151617181920212227 ... LastLast
Results 321 to 340 of 1103

Thread: US Presidential election 2016

  1. #321
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,104
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    I don't have a lot of interest in US politics but I get the impression that Donald Trump is a self opinionated raving loony.

    Sitting Bull has more change of being voted President than this guy

    Sure he'll get a lot of attention and laughs along the way but very few will actually vote for him on the day.

    Really what I wanted some advice on is what's the catch?

    Evens with laddies Hilary Clinton? I can't see one person who will even come close to beating her?

    They love Bill which to means she's got one foot inside the door already.

    Surely this is a one horse race?
    Formely Fist of Fury

  2. #322
    Senior Member icebreaker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    2,957
    Thanks
    393
    Thanked 80 Times in 73 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    The superdelegates is a cunning ploy.

    http://www.pastemagazine.com/article...tablishme.html
    Well, that makes me a bit more relaxed about this superdelegate malarkey. I had been spitting-angry about it when I posted, but apparently it doesn't matter much which way a superdelegate swings at this early stage of the process. (Then again, that's if we can believe that they will go along with the popular vote at the nominating convention).
    Bitcoin: 1GyyygZmobehztUmHLdLWVKLqnfyJC5wzi

    Litecoin: LL12qc8Fid3kt4QzkvFQ6SadSuxxZEi5Nh

  3. #323
    SlimChance
    Guest
    It's a clever tactic from the Clinton camp to cover up getting tonked in NH.

    Sanders has raised at least $2.6 million since the polls closed yesterday in NH. This could get really interesting.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 11th February 2016 at 12:10 AM.

  4. #324
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Boston, USA
    Posts
    256
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 262 Times in 94 Posts
    I told my (American) wife that we would be leaving the US if Trump became President; I am starting to feel a bit like Gary Lineker must be feeling! Of course, he will be delighted to 'pay his forfeit' whereas I am starting to panic. Both Trump and Cruz are polarizing candidates and it probably isn't any coincidence that however many times Trump tops the polls he never achieves more than 35% of the vote - it is highly likely that there is a very definite upper limit to the amount of votes he can get; let's face it, how many times can you insult women, blacks, hispanics and the disabled and still expect to get their support? Cruz is one of the most disliked politicians in America and has all of Trump's hubris and arrogance without any of the salesmanship or sound bites - he has limited upside.
    There is a big gaping hole, a middle ground between Trump and Cruz, for any decent Republican candidate to drive their campaign bus through; the only question is : where is the decent candidate? Rubio was sitting back until Iowa thrust him into the spotlight and he failed miserably to deal with it in the NH debate; it's going to be really difficult(and a slow process) for him to recover. Bush looks and sounds ineffective but is backed by the Party machine and almost unlimited money; he will need to be dragged out of the race kicking and screaming. Kasich would normally be able to bridge this middle ground (although I have yet to be sold on his candidacy) but with Bush and, to a lesser extent, Rubio likely to hang around these three are likely to continue sharing this middle ground. The longer that happens the more opportunity for Trump, in particular, to rack up delegates and , before we know it, it could be almost too late. Ordinarily, some of the Republican grandees would be telling/asking a couple these candidates to back down and exit stage left; the problem is that they probably don't know who to back and , one of them (Bush) isn't going to listen even if they dared to upset the SuperPacs and decide he cannot win. What a mess!

    On the Democratic side, Sanders is as an unlikely and disconcerting a Presidential candidate as Trump. He has done a great job of cultivating the young vote (something Clinton has, astonishingly, ignored so far) and is building up momentum. It would have been inconceivable a few months ago that Clinton would not be the Democratic nominee but she is making a tremendous job of getting it all wrong for a second time.

    At the end of the day is there a true presidential candidate among them? It's difficult to see one.
    Last edited by pdleech; 11th February 2016 at 1:41 AM.

  5. The Following User Says Thank You to pdleech For This Useful Post:

    Colin Phillips (11th February 2016)

  6. #325
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,493
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 103 Times in 90 Posts
    A call for Michael Bloomberg?
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  7. #326
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Boston, USA
    Posts
    256
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 262 Times in 94 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    A call for Michael Bloomberg?
    It would be but am concerned he wouldn't get enough votes, would take more votes from Democrats than Republicans and leave the field open for Trump.

  8. #327
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,493
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 103 Times in 90 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by pdleech View Post
    Both Trump and Cruz are polarizing candidates and it probably isn't any coincidence that however many times Trump tops the polls he never achieves more than 35% of the vote - it is highly likely that there is a very definite upper limit to the amount of votes he can get
    This upper ceiling argument is the one thing that the 'get Trump' majority keep clinging to, and in fairness, it's the most persuasive of all the arguments.

    It does perhaps need breaking down a bit. In the first case all candidates have an upper ceiling. Trump as you say has shown his to be a 35%. I initially speculated that he could reach 20-25% of American's with his 'nasty' agenda. So far his figure has pretty much been the exclusive preference of Republicans. He is likely to have some Democrats to whom he could appeal, but not on the same scale as he could the right wing zealots of the Republican party. Given that they broadly constitute about half the nation, my 20-25% might not be far off the money

    I think however there is an important factor here, and that is Ted Cruz. Basically both Trump and Cruz are pretty much fascist, but between them they exhibit different types of fascism. Trump's is perhaps the more European type, which is grounded in nationalism, and wrapped up in patriotism in order to sell to the American people. Cruz is an evangelical fascist, which in itself is much more an American creation, albeit it has shadows in the middle east where a cult of superior theology and doctrinal instruction characterises societies. The crux of the issue is that between them they tend to garner 50-60%, giving the fascist wing of the Republican party a theoretical edge, which the moderates can't do anything about for now. I'm not sure where Carson fits on this, he might add a few points to it as well. I'm not so sure he's quite as fascist as the other two though. Anyway, humour me, as this is an area I tend to be guilty of under-estimating.

    In Europe we are perhaps more in line with political philosophy than the American's. In America the cult of the candidate is more important than the party. It's really the legacy of the systems. Therefore I tend to be guilty of assuming that if one fascist candidate were to withdraw (say Cruz with 20%) then the rump of that would transfer to the alternative fascist, in this case Trump, and his ceiling now becomes 50%+. However, what I'm tending to fail to grasp is that the identification with the theological fundamentalism, is stronger than the political fascism, and that a lot of Cruz support would probably drift towards the nearest christian alternative (Rubio), albeit Trump would pick up some and possibly raise his own upper threshold to the low 40's

    I'm trying to see if there's a scenario that has these three left standing as follows

    Trump = nationalist fascist
    Cruz = evangelical fascist
    Bush = not a fascist

    (use Rubio interchangably with Bush if you prefer)

    By the time this has happened Trump should have a delegate lead. The big test for Cruz comes in Texas on March 1st with 172 delegates up for grabs. This is a winner takes all state if the winner manages 50% or more. If they don't, it divides proportionately. If Trump can stop Cruz getting the 50% then he looks to hold the whip hand, as the next big winner takes all is Florida (72 delegates) and Trump has a commanding lead of over 20%

    Basically by then the two fascist candidates could be so far ahead of the non fascist candidate, that there might not be much they can do about it. If the GOP establishment is faced with the choice of throwing in behind one of Trump or Cruz, which way do they dive? Trump's ceiling is over 50% now

    All things being equal Trump is on to win South Carolina. Rubio, the great hope could conceivably have form figures of 3, 5, 4 by then. The Nevada caucus becomes critical for him, but no one has polled this for ages. If he doesn't breakthrough there, then he's not won any of the first four states. He really is having rewrite the history book
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  9. #328
    SlimChance
    Guest
    Cruz 5 points better than Trump nationally. Really?

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/polls-...e=TWSAutoTweet

  10. #329
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,493
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 103 Times in 90 Posts
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  11. #330
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,493
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 103 Times in 90 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Cruz 5 points better than Trump nationally. Really?

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/polls-...e=TWSAutoTweet
    Actually this is something I failed to pick up on in my character post on him. Trump is someone who observes the doctrine that if you tell a big enough lie enough times people start to believe it (Goebels). He just brazenly makes stuff up sometimes. He's consistently telling people that he out scores Hillary in hypothetical head to heads. He doesn't. In fact he's about the worse performing candidate of the lot. But here's the rub, more people will see Trump making these outrageous statements on Fox, than will trawl through RCP to dig out the data (a lot of which is pretty poorly compiled)

    I should also say that of all the things Americans pollsters sample, I think these hypothetical head to head match-ups carry the most noise. They're notoriously unreliable and incredibly fickle. Responders are much more inclined to use them as proxy protest instruments as they're answering hypothetical 'what ifs' all the time. It's a shame you can't lay their findings for money, as ultimately there's only one match up that can ever occur.

    In Ted Cruz we are talking about someone who wants to carpet bomb in the middle east, even more refugees heading our way and not America's, and said on Dec 5th, 2015 "I don't know if sand can glow in the dark, but we're going to find out"
    Last edited by Warbler; 11th February 2016 at 11:07 PM.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  12. #331
    SlimChance
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    I couldn't find that the other day. That was the Cruz rebuttal in South Carolina to the Don't Trust Ted television ad.

  13. #332
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,493
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 103 Times in 90 Posts
    I'm shocked by the fact that one of the children appears to be off asian extraction, yet the two parents are white, and doubtless good bible reading types. Surely Senator Cruz isn't promoting divorce, a bit of infidelity for the wifey, mixed marriage (assuming they're married, they could be living in sin) - we need to know!

    I'm surprised actually how little attention Cruz has been given by our own media in preference to Trump. Whereas the Donald is worrying (largely due to his temperament) Cruz is darn right dangerous, much worse!
    Last edited by Warbler; 12th February 2016 at 1:39 AM.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  14. #333
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Boston, USA
    Posts
    256
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 262 Times in 94 Posts
    The level of insight, eloquence and opinion on this site* puts the American commentators to shame; ironic that I come here to learn and get intelligent observations!

    * Although I'm not surprised given the quality of the horse racing discussions (with a few exceptions, of course )

  15. #334
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    795
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 27 Times in 24 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Cruz 5 points better than Trump nationally. Really?

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/polls-...e=TWSAutoTweet
    The weeklystandard is an archconservative magazine similar to the National Review. These guys don't want Trump. Cruz aligns much closer to their "conservative" values. Looking at the Realclear data in a bit of detail what springs out is that in both head to heads the Fox News poll is the only one where Cruz and trump have an advantage, plus it's dated more than a month old. A cynic might see these Fox polls as Murdoch pushing his aganda as he is also a known Trump "despiser". I agree with Warbler that these head to heads are way too fickle at this point in time.

    I'll be in Cuba for the South Carolina contest and get to see true socialism up close and personal. I'm pretty sure they don't have Fox News there.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  16. #335
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,493
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 103 Times in 90 Posts
    In a funny sort of way, I was only thinking last night that in line with the laws of unintended consequence, the Republican party has become something of a hostage to Donald Trump. All of sudden he could be the establishments saviour!!!

    The one candidate they dread above all others is Ted Cruz. The only thing stopping Cruz at this moment in time is Trump. The Donalds support is largely nationlist with fascist tendancies. He's built his campaign around jingoistic xenophobia and laced it with lashings of patriotism to make it palatable. If the people who've signed up for this suddenly found that their totem was removed from the campaign where would they pitch up next? I suspect they'd gravitate to the next nearest fascist, in this case Cruz, and be prepared to look past his evangelism as unfortunate, but a compromise they could justify in order to make sand glow in the dark

    So take Trump out the race, and Cruz suddenly has something in the region of 50% of the vote with Rubio the nearest challenger on something like 15%. It's all over. Cruz is your nominee

    If Cruz were to drop out though, his evangelical fascists, because they identify with faith before nationalism, aren't quite so certain of finding a new haven en-masse. Some will go to Trump, but one suspects a lot will transfer to the next Godist in line, probably Rubio

    It's crazy, but the anti establishment Trump, is the only thing saving the establishment at the moment. Trumps got a pretty strong hand if he wants to start playing poker with them

    Incidentally Brendan, don't be too shocked if you discover sand, sea, socialism and rampant minimum wage prostitution in Cuba
    Last edited by Warbler; 12th February 2016 at 11:20 PM.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  17. #336
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    795
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 27 Times in 24 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    However, what I'm tending to fail to grasp is that the identification with the theological fundamentalism, is stronger than the political fascism, and that a lot of Cruz support would probably drift towards the nearest christian alternative (Rubio), albeit Trump would pick up some and possibly raise his own upper threshold to the low 40's

    The big test for Cruz comes in Texas on March 1st with 172 delegates up for grabs. This is a winner takes all state if the winner manages 50% or more. If they don't, it divides proportionately. If Trump can stop Cruz getting the 50% then he looks to hold the whip hand, as the next big winner takes all is Florida (72 delegates) and Trump has a commanding lead of over 20%
    I think you underestimate Trump with evangelicals. Iowa polling data shows that he was 2nd with that group well ahead of say Carson and in NH he actually won with that segment. As for a drift towards Rubio he could be toast by that time such a scenario comes into play. The big test you describe on March 1st is actually bigger than just Texas, while acknowledging that Texas as Cruz's home state offers the biggest bounty (delegate count there is 155 not 172). In addition there are another seven states with 302 delegates available based on the winner take all at 50% or more. March 1st should be the watershed moment for most of the candidates still standing. I can see there being at least five combatants still fighting it out at that time, Carson is a name your number no hoper in this equation and should just exit left gracefully.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  18. #337
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    795
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 27 Times in 24 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    Incidentally Brendan, don't be too shocked if you discover sand, sea, socialism and rampant minimum wage prostitution in Cuba
    that last one might have interested me 25 or so years ago.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  19. #338
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    795
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 27 Times in 24 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by pdleech View Post
    The level of insight, eloquence and opinion on this site* puts the American commentators to shame; ironic that I come here to learn and get intelligent observations!
    There are more than enough insightful and eloquent American commentators if you get past the grandstanding of Fox, talk radio and most of their acolytes.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  20. #339
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,493
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 103 Times in 90 Posts
    I thought I'd take a look at the VP markets again, having flirted with Tim Paine, and since come out of the idea due to lack of what I'll call chatter surrounding him. At face value his place in the market looks like being the creation of the UK bookmaking industry as I've yet to encounter any American enthusiasm for the selection, come to think of it, his name never appears on any shortlist

    The two names that keep coming back time and time again are Julian Castro 5/2 and Cory Booker 20/1. I'd say they account for two thirds of people's quick fire answers I'm seeing across social media platforms. Even those who nominate alternatives seem to do so in the spirit of looking for contrary views to spark conversation.

    Now I confess to knowing nothing about Booker, but his is the name that seemingly attracts less downside. Castro, depsite being favourite, is held b y some to carry the same risks as Sarah Palin as being a bit lightweight. Also his price seems to be an over reaction to a comment Hillary made about him being talented and someone who she would be looking at. I can't remember Hillary's precise quote, but when I read it originally it was just as capable of being interpreted as a cabinet position or some other role, but people immediately extrapolated that he was a VP candidate. It's also worth noting that she could hardly turn round and slag him off, what was she supposed to say? I'm not sure that Booker is significantly more experienced than Castro, but he seems to have cut more of an impression.

    I wouldn't fancy Castro against Rubio either, should some form of that match up take place. He could damage the attraction of the ticket as he'll likely be viewed as Rubio lite

    At 20/1 then I'll take a chance on Booker blind. His name just keeps cropping up

    The evidence isn't necessarily conclusive, but the trend is for candidates to use the VP to balance the ticket. Booker is young and male, with a bit of ethnicity to boot, Hillary ain't!!!
    Last edited by Warbler; 12th February 2016 at 11:05 PM.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  21. #340
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,493
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 103 Times in 90 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by brendanr View Post
    I think you underestimate Trump with evangelicals.
    I think you'd be more accurate to suggest I just don't understand this bloc at all!!! - I don't - I just don't get it. I read someone referencing a poll recently that said 50% of American's would never vote for someone who identified as an aethist!!! Yeah - i think that's one big no, no, with me too, I mean how could you ever vote for someone whose come down on the side of science

    The only time I can recall Trump doing God was when he compared 'The Art of the Deal' favourably to the Bible.

    The only thing he's doing, and he's doing it well, is that he's presenting himself as the defender christianity rather than as someone who is a paid up member of the God squad. In fairness, he can hardly spout the christian values with his own personal life history laid out for anyone to examine. Instead he's reaching out to them through demonising islam as an existential threat to them, and playing the role of the crusader

    Incidentally, the first post NH poll for SC has just come in (it's pretty much as before)

    Trump 36%
    Cruz 20%
    Rubio 15%
    Bush 11%
    Kasich 9%
    Carson 5%
    Undecideds 5%

    The second preference data has them pretty well tied. No one gets more than 20%. Trump's in third on 16%, but Cruz on 17% and Rubio on 18% aren't making any dents

    I did note that only 8 black people were surveyed and that the sample is badly out of line with the state demographic (even GOP supporters).

    Carsons fall of a few points is in line with expectations. Kasich hasn't really got a massive bounce but then he was very low in SC so its definitely there too? Perhaps its his turn to inherit the mantle for a bit, but then again its perhaps nothing that couldn't be explained by Christie, Fiorina, and Paul dropping out since it was last polled. I'm probably going to take the contrary view to most and suggest that Rubio is big winner on this data, as perhaps its suggesting that his **** up in the NH debate, might be restricted to NH?

    America Risings latest attack ad against Bernie

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3T73...ature=youtu.be
    Last edited by Warbler; 12th February 2016 at 11:00 PM.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •