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Thread: US Presidential election 2016

  1. #301
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    Quote Originally Posted by brendanr View Post
    Don’t see the infatuation with Bloomberg. Where is any significant vote count going to come from. The Dems will eventually rally around Hillary. I expect her to get the ball rolling in big style here. He has simply no chance of getting the electoral votes needed. As an independent. Ross Perot won something like 19% of the popular vote in 1992 and not a single electoral vote. The deck is stacked heavily against any insurgents. Worst case scenario he hands the race to Trump by sabotaging the Democrats. Bloomberg despises Trump so he’ll think long and hard before he goes down that road.
    You've basically asked and answered the question regarding Bloomberg

    I think he'll outperform Perot, but Perot took votes almost exclusively from Bush H, allowing slick willy to smile his way into the White House. I don't think it'll be quite so clear cut a partisan division for Bloomberg, but I suspect he'll do Hillary more damage than the Republican. That's why I wouldn't want evens about Hillary until we know what Bloomberg is planning to do. He might not beat her, but he might allow someone else to do so.

    There's a number of key states where we only need that damage to be 5% (principally Ohio and Pennsylvania) for the Republican to suddenly be winning the White House

    What if the candidate is Trump though? It's another factor why I think I'd quite like to take a long term bet on Trumps majority as a value proposition. He could win a landslide with something like 45% yet, which is well within his compass

    The other thing that would be decisive is a terrorist incident committed by someone who arrived in the US after November 2015. That would seal the deal for him
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  2. #302
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    It's musical chairs!!!
    I think Christie will be next out
    Hardly the most prescient insight, but Christie has just dropped out
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  3. #303
    SlimChance
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    I watched all the CNN coverage last night and the Trump speech was lauded while I thought it was awful. EVS Hillary is looking very tasty.

    I thought this link was interesting on Rubio's precarious position. It briefly alludes to Warbler's point about Rubio being a good GOP and dropping out.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2016/02/10/is-rubio-done/

  4. #304
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    The infatuation with Bloomberg is that it will completely change the dynamic of Hillary's campaign.

  5. #305
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey View Post
    There are weak points for her that Sanders might be able to exploit:

    http://www.thenation.com/article/hil...ium=socialflow
    Thanks. As Warbler has said there was a real energy to Sanders (overly long) victory speech. It's just hard to see him winning the key demographics in South Carolina.

  6. #306
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Hillary is looking very tasty.
    Hell, I never thought I'd ever read those words in the same sentance
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

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  8. #307
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    Hell, I never thought I'd ever read those words in the same sentance
    I'd rather ride Sanders...

  9. #308
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    duplicate - god knows how, but then Malwarebytes keepings telling me that Talking Horses is a malicious website so something isn't functioning (could also be that Malwarebytes reads the content of course?)
    Last edited by Warbler; 10th February 2016 at 8:31 PM.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  10. #309
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    “Make America great again” is a slogan and it’s dangerous to read too far beyond that, but Trump is a salesperson who tries to manage the emotional reaction rather than taking you through the transaction. What he does, is invite you to buy in by way of trial close.

    The nuanced acceptance of what he's saying is America isn’t great. The moment people start listening beyond this, they’re accepting the first part of his proposition. Most people can probably point to a time in their life where they considered things to be better. Even if they can’t, they can probably imagine a vague point in recent history where America stood mightier. Nostalgia is always a powerful tool if harnessed. Trump’s statements however are deliberately open ended allowing the listener to frame it on their own temporal horizon. They start to become co-authors of his narrative

    He doesn’t say what ‘great’ is, he never tells you how he’s going to do it, he never sets out a benchmark capable of judging it. What he does instead is tell that he’ll do it, and that you want it.

    Take his statement on Obamacare

    “We’re going to repeal and replace Obamacare with something much, much better. It’s going to be great, and everyone will love it”

    Any chance of sharing with us what is Donald? No. All he’s asking American's to do is fantasise about their best case scenario of universal coverage and low premiums, and fill in the blanks based on their aspirations. He goes further though by telling them they’ll “love it” –typical salesman, but it’s this kind of social proofing that becomes contagious when it takes hold. You only need to look at the way he brands his merchandise. Once a critical mass approve of something (or love it), everyone else feels obliged to want it too. The whole thing becomes unstoppable. It's little wonder staid politicians are struggling to get his number, and when he reinforces it with bullying bombast delivered from a position of personal success (always evidenced by wealth) it starts to become overwhelming

    “I will build a great wall with a great big beautiful door”

    I doubt his wall will be much more than ugly grey concrete myself, but already he’s using words like “great” and “beautiful” to mask what it is. People are being asked to attach a different emotional approval to it as they try and imagine this lovely wall with some aesthetically beautiful sliding door. People are being encouraged to look past the sale and are instead being conditioned to how they should respond, and approve the product

    Obama was a skilled orator, but he invited people into the decision making process, often explaining to them what options he had, how he appraised them, and then going onto justify his decisions in line with what he rejected and why. Trump just deals in sentiment and lacks specifics. Instead he paints end product pictures which give people illusory hope based on his own personal success (note how often when he’s placed under pressure he resorts to bank balances, trading performance, or some other approval rating proxy). The other thing he tends do though is tell people what he thinks, or what he wants, and then invites them to agree with him, whilst leaving those who don't slightly stained by their refusal because they don't get the reflected glory of his success as a self styled 'winner'. In other words he dismisses them as 'losers'

    This whole issue of campaigning on nebulous visions is also quite difficult to pick apart. How can you say you oppose 'making American great again'? All you can hope to do is point out that its pie in the sky sentiment, but this leaves you wide open to allegations of lacking ambition, and you will nearly always appear unfavourably alongside the big talker if trying to introduce some sensible restraint. People don't really warm to reasons as to why things can't be done, even when there are seriously large question marks over his promises. Alternatively you might try and extract detail from him (never easy given his penchant for inventing figures on the spot) but if you do this, you're moving onto his territory and entertaining the authenticity of his claim, and even lending it legitimacy

    Another thing he’s doing is externalising insecurities in others as threats, be they real or imaginary. He tends to reel off a whole list of bogeymen, ISIS, China, Washington, the media, Mexico or anybody he can think of who he doesn’t believe will, or can vote for him, and are therefore safe to be put in the file marked ‘expendable’ in his binary world view. If you throw enough bete noire candidates out there, you’ll find one who’ll gain traction with the consumer. Its a scattergun approach. Here's your list of bogeymen as approved by Donald J Trump which one do you want blame? Trump invites people to attach blame to others, and people being what they are, will normally be happy to accept the deal if it relieves them of any contributory culpability. Ultimately it will create division and resentment, but then Trump is more of a salesperson than a societal manager.

    Beware the Trump though, the political establishment have rarely had to contend with someone like this, and their heads are indeed spinnin'. I think they probably sat back expecting him to burn spectacularly, and he certainly ripped up the orthodoxy, running up a whole sequence of gaffs that should have seen him driven out the camapign months ago if normal rules applied. It didn't though. His own poll ratings improved. With their barrier fire wall unable to contain the Donald, the onus fell on the other candidates to bring him down, and between them they've either been to frightened, unable, or simply to bewildered to know what to do next.

    This shouldn't have happened. Guess what though. It just has.
    Last edited by Warbler; 11th February 2016 at 2:54 AM.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  11. #310
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    Moving onto South Carolina, I can't see any angle here other than Cruz at 7/2, but even that is tempered by the fact that if you add up his polling data with Ben Carson's you nearly always get the same total of 30-32% regardless of where you are in the snapshot. Even if Carson drops off a cliff Cruz looks like being able to close the gap, but not by enough

    I haven't heard it speculated, but a bit of me wonders if Kasich might pull out soon? (no logical reason for him to do so admittedly) but he spent a lot of time working New Hampshire, a hell of a lot of time, in a state that would be reasonably on message for him, and yet Trump still got double his support. Basically he can't win. His best chance of going further is the VP ticket, where he brings Ohio, and potentially Pennsylvania to the table

    He could get well and truly rodgered in South Carolina. What if he pulls out in the next few days from a position of strength rather than go through the next few rounds and wear a few wounds? He would probably be in position to ask both Jeb and Marco for the ticket now in return for doing so. That might be the best out he can get from this whole campaign
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  12. #311
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    The other thing that would be decisive is a terrorist incident committed by someone who arrived in the US after November 2015. That would seal the deal for him
    Couldn't you see a scenario where they look at this process and say to themselves man this Trump is going to kick our ass so lets influence this whole process by blowing something up and influencing this to where Trump wins and hopefully sends American troops our way so we can finally come to Armageddon. CNN reporting that American intelligence agencies are expecting terrorist attacks by ISIS in 2016 plays nicely into such a viewpoint.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  13. #312
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by brendanr View Post
    Couldn't you see a scenario where they look at this process and say to themselves man this Trump is going to kick our ass so lets influence this whole process by blowing something up and influencing this to where Trump wins and hopefully sends American troops our way so we can finally come to Armageddon. CNN reporting that American intelligence agencies are expecting terrorist attacks by ISIS in 2016 plays nicely into such a viewpoint.
    Jesus we're reaching now lads.

  14. #313
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    Moving onto South Carolina, I can't see any angle here other than Cruz at 7/2, but even that is tempered by the fact that if you add up his polling data with Ben Carson's you nearly always get the same total of 30-32% regardless of where you are in the snapshot. Even if Carson drops off a cliff Cruz looks like being able to close the gap, but not by enough

    I haven't heard it speculated, but a bit of me wonders if Kasich might pull out soon? (no logical reason for him to do so admittedly) but he spent a lot of time working New Hampshire, a hell of a lot of time, in a state that would be reasonably on message for him, and yet Trump still got double his support. Basically he can't win. His best chance of going further is the VP ticket, where he brings Ohio, and potentially Pennsylvania to the table

    He could get well and truly rodgered in South Carolina. What if he pulls out in the next few days from a position of strength rather than go through the next few rounds and wear a few wounds? He would probably be in position to ask both Jeb and Marco for the ticket now in return for doing so. That might be the best out he can get from this whole campaign
    In reference to Kasich it would seem to make sense as his leverage is at its greatest right now but I can't see that happening for the reason you state and that is he put a lot of time and effort into New Hampshire. He surely did not do that to drop out before the next primary. All these guys have huge egos which in his case will surely deflate after he gets clocked in South Carolina. He'll have lost any leverage he had but he isn't even thinking about that now.

    Agree with the Cruz angle being the only play but even that is tempered by the data points you mentioned. On top of that Trump has gone to Greenville SC today which is one of the most conservative regions in the State. Iowa proved that Trump is capable of picking up a slice of these voters and the initial polls have him further ahead of Cruz then the polls in Iowa were predicting for him.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  15. #314
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    Quote Originally Posted by brendanr View Post
    Couldn't you see a scenario where ......
    Who knows? I wouldn't rule anything in or out the way this is developing
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  16. #315
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Jesus we're reaching now lads.
    Admittedly it is a reach but these are not rational people we are talking about.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  17. #316
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    We could of course start speculating about 'men in black' and the arms industry shipping a few in too

    Carly Fiorina has dropped out now.

    When does Megyn Kelly get her chance to face off with Trump? I saw her interviewed on CNN the other day about it and she was pretty certain that Trump wouldn't duck her again, and boy ... did she sound confident
    Last edited by Warbler; 10th February 2016 at 10:05 PM.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  18. #317
    Senior Member icebreaker's Avatar
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    So, although Bernie garnered 60% of the NH vote as against Hillary's 38%. they both exit the primary with an equal amount of delegates each !
    Bernie's 60% wins him 15 delegates; Hillary wins 9 delegates with her 38%.
    But, there are also another 8 "superdelegates" -- party bosses and party officers --who can align for whomever they wish ................ and six of these eight delegates (two as yet undecided) have committed to Hillary. Thus, Bernie and Hillary will have fifteen delegates each (so far) from NH at the Democratic nominating convention in late July.
    What kind of crazy fucked-up sh1t is this?
    The Democratic Party ain't so democratic.
    Bitcoin: 1GyyygZmobehztUmHLdLWVKLqnfyJC5wzi

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  19. #318
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    The infatuation with Bloomberg is that it will completely change the dynamic of Hillary's campaign.
    Remember the ghost of Ralph Nader?

    Bloomberg doesn't need to hit massive figures (Nader didn't) but he stopped Al Gore, and the world got Dubya (and never looked back)
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  20. #319
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Christie out of the race.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  21. #320
    SlimChance
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    The superdelegates is a cunning ploy.

    http://www.pastemagazine.com/article...tablishme.html

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