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Thread: Tom Scudamore

  1. #61
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    Race 7 - 4:40pm THE 32RedBingo.com MAIDEN OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 6) (DIV I)
    Tom Scudamore, the rider of SUSIE SHEEP, placed fourth, reported that the filly stopped quickly. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of the filly failed to reveal any abnormalities.


    Would suggest the problem was with the horse, rather than the ride she got.

  2. #62
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Thanks Reet I'll send you the tenner in the morning

    How did this examination come about? Did the stewards order it or did David Pipe ask for one?

    I presume it was the former but like to check
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Sure it's brilliant.......brilliant job of pulling the wool over your eyes.
    Let's look closer at Richard Hughes
    He's been Champion Jockey or runner up how many times in the last 5 years?
    Consider who he rides for and the quality of horse would you or would you not expect him to be right up there at the head the table when it comes to wins on odds on favourites e.g. ?
    I know I would
    Not a bit of it he is nowhere near the top he is in about 19th place which EC fails to mention.

    No, i've actually not pulled any wool over anyone's eyes, i've provided you with concrete evidence that the prices of R Hughes rides when favourite are not falsely short as you said they would be. You are now trying to pull the wool though by picking out "odds on" as though its some kind of benchmark..which it isn't. "Odds on" is just a higher % of winners needed to rides taken...you don't specify what odds..just "odds on".

    I didn't mention "odds on"as its already covered in his overall figures...I didn't pick out 2/1 - 6/4 range either..as they covered in his overall figures...i didn't pick out 7/4 to 5/2 shots either...as they are covered in the overall figures.

    AE accounts for price of horse..that's the whole point.....that you seem to be missing.

    Your obsession with "odds on" seems a bit odd to me...its like you believe that that price band 10/11 to 1/1000...always wins ..so is some kind of accurate measuring tool....its not ..its just a generalised name for a range of % of chance....the 6/4 to 3/1 range doesn't have a punters "name" ..but its just a relevant when it comes to judging how something performs against expectation.

    You can throw figures about all day, spend half your life trying to find a way to successful gambling but you will never succeed

    So you are saying that there are no successful gamblers anywhere..because reading form is using figures..in fact if you don't read figures you are struggling with most parts of horse racing full stop.

    I won't comment on that..i'll let Slim and a few others challenge it...i'm not remotely interested in whether people can or can't make it pay.

    My time and my lifestyle simply doesn't allow for that ....life is way too short to be sitting at a computer day in day out with no or little reward.

    So if thats the case why do you come on here spouting about stuff you obviously have no interest in..like this aspect we discussing here...and from evidence of what i've read on this thread.. don't seem to understand even what you are criticising...but you just keep on.. trying to make me look a dick...for what reason i don't know.

    Its a bit like me ..who likes music very much..but can't play any instrument....going on a music forum and telling people they are playing their instruments wrong.

    I'm not being funny Tanlic..but you like your way of doing things re horse racing and are very happy with it..other people use their methods..and i can tell you I am very happy with my ways.

    I don't criticise how you pick horses..so tbh i'm not sure what you trying to achieve here.
    Last edited by EC1; 29th October 2014 at 11:03 AM.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Race 7 - 4:40pm THE 32RedBingo.com MAIDEN OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 6) (DIV I)
    Tom Scudamore, the rider of SUSIE SHEEP, placed fourth, reported that the filly stopped quickly. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of the filly failed to reveal any abnormalities.


    Would suggest the problem was with the horse, rather than the ride she got.
    thanks for that Reet..at least we know it didn't stop through any ailment..just early exertion
    Last edited by EC1; 29th October 2014 at 11:06 AM.

  5. #65
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    I am also calling bullsh!t that you've had a five figure sum on Sprinter Sacre. Five figures in Thai baht maybe.

    Who laid you the bet and at what odds?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    oh..things might get a bit hairy after that i think....i'll leave the thread to you guys..its run its course for me..i've no interest in people's personal betting whatsoever

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    There`s more than one way to skin a cat. Tanlic has his way and EC (and Gigs) have their way, which on the evidence they regularly supply here is very profitable. Why rubbish their profitable methods?

  8. #68
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    Don't forget the element luck plays, this is not a precise science, they are not machines, when backing them training them or riding them you need the rub of the green at times.
    Last edited by marbler; 29th October 2014 at 12:22 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by marble View Post
    Don't forget the element luck plays, this is not a precise science, they are not machines, when backing them training them or riding them you need the rub of the green, imo.
    trust you Marb..i got to comment on that..coz its a good point.

    I have actually mentioned this earlier...when people make their own mind up with no figures or get info...and horse gets beat for whatever...they don't analyse to the 100 degrees why it lost..or come on saying all info is rubbish because it lost

    but when a stat is wrong once in 20 years..ooh stats are rubbish..they've been wrong once in 20 years..or a horse that runs a fast time gets beat nto..its ooh speed figures are sh1t

    all methods of selection are going to be wrong many times due to many factors including an element of luck..trouble is when its a numbers admirer thats wrong..his method is then rubbished immediately by a certain section

  10. #70
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I am certainly not out to make you look like a fool Ec.

    I have tried with various methods to find an easy way to come out on top but somehow always ended up losing or unwilling to put the effort in.

    I didn't just jump in. I spent nearly a month using a bot which allows you to play on Betfair. Everything is the same as if you are playing with real money but you are not.

    I was placing bets using a recommended staking plan as if it were real money and I won almost every day.......went from 100 pounds liability per race to 400
    By the end of the period I am Thousands in front. I even had a winning run of 23. My idea was to lay 1 horse a race ......no hopers we call them.

    So I decided to as you would to give it a go. It was some time ago and as soon as I uploaded money into my number 2 account I went straight to the first race picked a horse out and laid him.

    The horse was Benbane Head he was about 16 maybe 20 can't remember but 2 were withdrawn and by the time the race was off he was 8.5 or something the favourite fell on his backside and Benbane Head hacked up...........a few races later PD Evans win with a totally unfancied one............never recovered from that and never tried that again


    I have tried place only on well fancied horses and despite the stats saying I should wi I managed to lose.............Multi-dutching has worked for me but you are almost always betting odds on and you have to be there all night (Remember the first race starts here about 8 or 9pm)......I was winning about 6000 baht a day doing that but talk about time consuming........It got to the stage where I would think if I went out it would cost me twice a much because I wouldn't win my 6k........gave that the boot but still do it between bets.

    If you or anyone else want to spend all day watching racing and the rest of your time studying stats or whatever then good on you but I am somewhere between it not being worth the time and not rewarding enough for the effort.

    And Benny not that I have to answer you sunshine but when I say I will be 5 figures poorer what I mean is 5 figures poorer than I would be if he won........not I have 5 figures on him.

    You however are one cheeky sod and seem to doubt I have backed him so here's a little challenge for you I will keep reasonable on.

    Go put up a Lay at 2.6 on Betfair for Sprinter Sacre for the Tingle Creek which is a fair price as he is 11/8 with the bookies..........PM me a time when you are going to do it.........lets say 500 quid and I'll take it instantly........ if you prefer more let me know.

    Tell you what...I can say I backed Sprinter Sacre off the boards and proved it can you do the same
    Last edited by Tanlic; 29th October 2014 at 12:59 PM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  11. #71
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I can't handle stats EC. I think what has past can't affect the future at all.

    What I mean is what Crisp did X amount of years ago has no bearing on what Weird eg Al will do tomorrow plus there are too many stats and adding one stat can change everything.

    I remember someone saying only Royal Relief had won the QMCC twice with a year between them out of X amount of races so Moscow Flyer couldn't possibly win........Someone should have told the horse that.

    You show me any decent horse in the Grand National and I'll find a stat to say he will win and someone else will show you a sta that says he wont.

    I suppose they are agood guide to 2 year old races but apart from that I think your better picking your own
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    I can't handle stats EC. I think what has past can't affect the future at all.

    What I mean is what Crisp did X amount of years ago has no bearing on what Weird eg Al will do tomorrow plus there are too many stats and adding one stat can change everything.

    I remember someone saying only Royal Relief had won the QMCC twice with a year between them out of X amount of races so Moscow Flyer couldn't possibly win........Someone should have told the horse that.

    You show me any decent horse in the Grand National and I'll find a stat to say he will win and someone else will show you a sta that says he wont.

    I suppose they are agood guide to 2 year old races but apart from that I think your better picking your own
    I don't particularly sit in any area as being this or that good tbh Tanlic..whatever people do and it gets results is all right by me. Stats are a bit of fun that i do look at for certain big races...i do like the thing Swedish Chef does..thats an area i've used in the past..where you look at certain races trainers do well in..maiden races and novice hurdles can be favourite targets for trainers..SC has put some good ones up over the last year

    Over the years i've tried every approach known to man...and even then i still keep looking even when i have a number of areas that seem to work well. I now have a set pattern of what i look at every day and am comfy in that. I am a methodical person..i need to know that what i do gets a certain result and then i want to rely on it in future. Future use is what i want to rely on. Thats why info isn't my bag..yes i've backed a few from people on here and appreciate them being put up..but in my mind i couldn't rely on that as i can't control it....i need to be self sufficient for future use.

    I don't think its a healthy pursuit trying to win money at this game...and i fully see where you are coming from saying you don't want to be looking all day at racing. I've done that in the past and its no good for you. My approach now is to look at areas each day i know i can rely on..ignore the races i don't like...which is most of them in the week.

    just to add if i have judged Tom wrongly then i'll be first to hold my hands up..like i said..i only posted the thread because it were two rides in 40 minutes that looked bad to my eyes...maybe they were maybe they weren't..lets see what happens in future. I don't single jocks out..especially the jump boys who are very brave people...but at same time if something looks glaringly bad i'll probably comment
    Last edited by EC1; 29th October 2014 at 1:54 PM.

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  14. #73
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Who's Tom?
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Fair dues to you lads. This has become a riveting post from a dodgy start. Good on all of you.

  16. #75
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EC1 View Post
    i fully see where you are coming from saying you don't want to be looking all day at racing. I've done that in the past and its no good for you. My approach now is to look at areas each day i know i can rely on..ignore the races i don't like...which is most of them in the week.
    Wholeheartedly agree. I take my hat off to those of you who can even be arsed to look at midweek racing let alone bet on it.

    I spent about 30 mins today updating the results of the races I'd analysed ahead of last Saturday's fare (mainly the more valuable TV stuff) and then another 15 maybe working out some time ratings for them. I won't be looking at the racing again until maybe Thursday (for Saturday's flat races) or Friday (for Saturday's jumps races). That's it other than watching some of the races on Saturday. That pattern will be the same until the end of the flat turf season when I'll have Thursdays off as well.

    There are other things in life, like getting together with the brothers for lunch, etc.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  17. #76
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Just to prove the point I was at home last night and decided, despite the poor quality of racing, to mix my bets: some races I dutched some win only some place only and a couple just traded on.

    I had 15 bets........9 winning bets.........won on 2 trade and 4 losers

    My total liability was 1481.47 p/l -1.43P and that was me being ultra cautious odd suppossibly in my fav averaging out at 1.47


    I would have made a slight profit but I only got matched for 8 quid instead of 90 at 1.39 Nabreen but hardly worth 4 hours work that seems more like 6 hours.



    The reason I normally avoid these races is the quality of horse is so poor that another poor horse need only improve to a poor standard to cause an upset and it happens way too often

    .
    Last edited by Tanlic; 30th October 2014 at 9:01 AM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  18. #77
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    Tom just gave Bengali a textbook front running ride...and came over to the fastest side in the straight..great ride.

  19. #78
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    And to balance out some of the negative comments I make about him, Scu was excellent on both No Buts and Monetaire at Newbury - or Noobry* if you believe Tarnya - last weekend.

    (I'm very concerned that my Weegie mates are also pronouncing it this way nowadays.)
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    he has been very good recently..maybe he reads forums

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    He's got momentum now!

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