Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 23

Thread: NR's - Is this the best we can do?

  1. #1
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Posts
    297
    Thanks
    12
    Thanked 136 Times in 112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    132

    NR's - Is this the best we can do?

    I backed a horse in the 7.35 Doncaster.

    9 runners when I backed it last night. Ew for 3 places. No worries. Yeah, right.

    Now we are down to 7 runners, the 3 places has gone and we're hit with a rule 4. This is just a way of racing life now. Since the 4 day decs were introduced, all we see are horses being taken out on the day of the race because trainers have had to make a decision about declaring their runners well in advance of race day and trainers are being asked, in effect, to be weather forecasters days in advance. whhn they get to the day? Nr's galore.

    Today at Donny there are 10 nr's and 9 of them state 'going' as the reason.

    For the ordinary punter, bets are totally ruined by this state of affairs and the British Horseracing Association are content just to sit by and allow to happen.

    So here we are: fields blighted by non-runners, small (tiny) fields, pathetic prize money. How many more things need to be in a dreadful state before racing gets the overhaul it needs?

    How is it that we can see Eire and France delivering regular good sized fields, prize money that puts ours to shame?

    Are the racing authorities so arrogant that they can't look to the Irish and French models and learn something from them?

    I have been bleating on about this for so long on various forums but the average racing fan doesn't seem at all bothered.

    Is it just me?
    Last edited by yorick; 23rd April 2022 at 1:53 PM.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,099
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    All races on Betfair Exchange they don't reduce the place terms if any horses get withdrawn

    Donnie 9.05pm is an example...2 non runners only 7 going to post EW 3 places

    if you back early you can as you say be hit witha rule 4.........simple solution is don't bet early
    Last edited by Tanlic; 23rd April 2022 at 2:48 PM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  3. #3
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Posts
    297
    Thanks
    12
    Thanked 136 Times in 112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    132
    I know what you mean but I am working and busy during the day and so like to make sure I can get it done in good time. Besides, once a horse comes out, the race and the staking will need adjusting and further study: impossible for me to be restudying form the next day at work.

  4. #4
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    3,410
    Thanks
    600
    Thanked 581 Times in 486 Posts
    Lots of good reasons to use Betfair but they closed my account when I emptied it once and are refusing to reopen. Maybe linked to the fact I seem to have p****d off Paddy Power somehow as they won’t offer me BOG and have excluded me from all promotions


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  5. #5
    Senior Member walsworth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    North Herts
    Posts
    1,538
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 64 Times in 49 Posts
    Just make sure that you back win and place separately on Betfair rather than use the E/W market, they don't pay on the third there if the field is reduced.
    I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
    Take a bow for the new revolution

  6. The Following User Says Thank You to walsworth For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (26th April 2022)

  7. #6
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,099
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by yorick View Post
    I know what you mean but I am working and busy during the day and so like to make sure I can get it done in good time. Besides, once a horse comes out, the race and the staking will need adjusting and further study: impossible for me to be restudying form the next day at work.
    Can I suggest you bet less and only back horses on your day off when you have the time to monitor what's happening.

    My best runs have come when I have plenty time on my hands to watch videos, watch the market moves and being able to adjust bets if anything unexpected happens.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  8. #7
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    7,309
    Thanks
    814
    Thanked 1,031 Times in 874 Posts
    Bet on AW races only - going is consistent and largely predictable = fewer withdrawals.
    2 AW meeetings yesterday = 6N/R . 3Flat = 38.

  9. #8
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Waterford
    Posts
    8,252
    Thanks
    264
    Thanked 317 Times in 251 Posts
    Duplicate post.
    Last edited by LUKE; 26th April 2022 at 9:48 PM.

  10. #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Waterford
    Posts
    8,252
    Thanks
    264
    Thanked 317 Times in 251 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by walsworth View Post
    Just make sure that you back win and place separately on Betfair rather than use the E/W market, they don't pay on the third there if the field is reduced.

    Incorrect.

  11. #10
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Posts
    297
    Thanks
    12
    Thanked 136 Times in 112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    132
    What people fail to appreciate is that many. many hundreds of thousands of punters are those that bet in multiples for modest stakes.

    If you study a race the night before with, say, 9 runners, you may look for something that is a long price, with a mind that they may win but even if they don't, you can get a nice return on the place to hit the first three: that's part of the calculations. Then, the next day, you see that there are two nr's, the field is reduced to 7 runners, the places are for the first two only and all that calculating goes to pot. It is impossible to number the amount of races that cut up so that the 3 places are lost: carnage for all the studying and staking plan that you have.

    I wonder, sometimes, if there is a secret incentive from the bookies to trainers to pull horses out and reduce field sizes.

    Once again, when i raise the issue on forums, nobody gives a toss. Well. I maintain it is an issue. The betting public are being ill-served at best, cheated at worst.


    Still. never mind. BAAAAAAAH!

  12. #11
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    London
    Posts
    992
    Thanks
    647
    Thanked 235 Times in 179 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by yorick View Post
    What people fail to appreciate is that many. many hundreds of thousands of punters are those that bet in multiples for modest stakes.

    If you study a race the night before with, say, 9 runners, you may look for something that is a long price, with a mind that they may win but even if they don't, you can get a nice return on the place to hit the first three: that's part of the calculations. Then, the next day, you see that there are two nr's, the field is reduced to 7 runners, the places are for the first two only and all that calculating goes to pot. It is impossible to number the amount of races that cut up so that the 3 places are lost: carnage for all the studying and staking plan that you have.

    I wonder, sometimes, if there is a secret incentive from the bookies to trainers to pull horses out and reduce field sizes.

    Once again, when i raise the issue on forums, nobody gives a toss. Well. I maintain it is an issue. The betting public are being ill-served at best, cheated at worst.


    Still. never mind. BAAAAAAAH!
    I totally agree. The best way I avoid this is to bet on the day itself. The odds are shorter, but the risk of being done over by late withdrawals is greatly reduced.

  13. #12
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    There is too much racing which results in smaller fields.if there was bigger fields then it wouldnt matter so much.
    Maybe the bookies sponsor the starting stall staff.8 runners and one plays up take it out.

  14. #13
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    7,309
    Thanks
    814
    Thanked 1,031 Times in 874 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Len Madeiros View Post
    I totally agree. The best way I avoid this is to bet on the day itself. The odds are shorter, but the risk of being done over by late withdrawals is greatly reduced.
    But why can't they use the same reduction factor Betfair apply- in line with the R4 deduction, if necessary?

  15. #14
    Senior Member walsworth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    North Herts
    Posts
    1,538
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 64 Times in 49 Posts
    Deleted
    Last edited by walsworth; 15th May 2022 at 3:19 AM.
    I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
    Take a bow for the new revolution

  16. #15
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Posts
    297
    Thanks
    12
    Thanked 136 Times in 112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    132
    I backed one horse for Friday last night: Ernesto in the 4 pm Carlisle. : 5 runners.

    This morning I see this on the BHA website: three nr's.

    4:00pm
    Zinc White (IRE) reason: going

    Fri 27 May 7:18am Reason: Going
    Wynford (IRE)

    Fri 27 May 7:16am Reason: Going
    Call My Bluff (IRE)

    So, now it is a 2 horse race.

    10 nr's at Carlisle - all citing 'going' as the reason.

    Once more, the farcical situation surrounding four-day decs continues. Will this carnage ever stop?

    Pathetic.
    Last edited by yorick; 27th May 2022 at 7:47 AM.

  17. #16
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Posts
    297
    Thanks
    12
    Thanked 136 Times in 112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    132
    I must apologise for my tosh talk here. What I mean to write is not 4 day devs but 48 hour decs.

    The 48 hr rule means that any horse running on Saturday, say, would have to be declared on the Thursday. It used to be that final decs for Sat would be made on the day before.

    People will point out that even the old system would produce nr’s if the weather turned overnight. However, it’s obvious that declaring nearer the day would mean that if it chucked it down on a Thurs night, you could take your horse out in time to let punters know well in advance.
    Last edited by yorick; 27th May 2022 at 9:30 AM.

  18. #17
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,749
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    I understand your frustration yorick, but on balance I much prefer the 48 hour decs, despite it not being perfect. Having the extra time to work through cards to see where the opportunities lie, to rate races, and to form study is much better than 24 hour decs.

    You point out yourself that horses would get withdrawn anyway, and in all likelihood the 2 runner race today would have been a two runner race anyway if trainers don't think the ground is suitable.

  19. #18
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Posts
    297
    Thanks
    12
    Thanked 136 Times in 112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    132
    With respect, mate, it’s not much use having that extra time to study and then see your choice as a nr. Not necessarily true about they would’ve been taken out even under the old system. If you declare your top of the ground horse on a Thursday lunchtime and then it lashes it down that night, there’s nothing you can do. If you didn’t have to declare til the day before, you could take your horse out before the final Dec.
    Last edited by yorick; 27th May 2022 at 11:26 AM.

  20. #19
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    7,309
    Thanks
    814
    Thanked 1,031 Times in 874 Posts
    48 Hr decs also enable far eastern countries to bet on our racing, which should benefit all of us to some degree.

  21. #20
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,749
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by yorick View Post
    If you declare your top of the ground horse on a Thursday lunchtime and then it lashes it down that night, there’s nothing you can do. If you didn’t have to declare til the day before, you could take your horse out before the final Dec.
    If the rain is forecast the same outcome would happen anyway, and we knew the risk. The same would also happen if it lashed down the night before.

    The issue of ground is generally the other way round, when it's too firm. That being the case connections usually decide on the day, unless they travelled up the evening before.

    The issue here is more around the dubious withdrawals of horses at the bottom of the market, which leaves a suspicion of bookie influence. But even then they tend to be late on in the piece, and 48 or 24 hour decs don't usually make too much difference.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •