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Thread: The thoughts of the handicappers.

  1. #441
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    I didn't know about that "+1" rule before. Given their strike rate, especially on the flat and over fences, it's something to keep an eye out for.

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    2016/17 ANGLO IRISH JUMP CLASSIFICATIONS: SURPRISED WITH THE SURPRISE / 31 MAY 17

    Over the last week or so, a number of journalists have expressed surprise at Many Clouds being named top 3 mile chaser in the 2016-2017 Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications, writes Phil Smith.

    I am surprised with their reaction as Sizing John was being published on 168 in Ireland for a full 6 weeks before the end of the season. What did they expect would happen in our end of season conference held after Punchestown?

    In fact we increased his rating to 169 from the Cheltenham Gold Cup. We were unanimous that he was a little below form at Punchestown (167) based through our assessment of Djakadam (166). You cannot get him higher from Leopardstown in February for just beating Empire of Dirt (164) and Don Poli (163).


    Of course if we are to get Sizing John to a higher figure then there will be a knock on effect. If it is from the Gold Cup at Leopardstown then Don Poli has to be higher. If it is from Cheltenham then Minella Rocco has to be higher. If it is from Punchestown then Djakadam has to be higher. I haven’t heard of anybody advocating this course of action.

    The reality is that it is just a feeling that Sizing John is better. Some writers have claimed that for winning three Grade 1’s he must be the best 3 mile chaser. We do not work that way. We don’t assess the race, we assess the relativity of horse’s positions and their form. If we assessed the race then the winner of the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe would always be the top middle distance flat horse. He or she sometimes is but it depends on who they beat and by how far.


    So to Many Clouds. It all boils down to whether you believe that Thistlecrack ran his race at Cheltenham in January. We think he did and was beaten fair and square by Many Clouds. Remember at the time Thistlecrack was being talked about as the second coming. If he didn’t run his race at Cheltenham then we could/should have had HIM as the top 3 mile chaser from the King George where you can easily get him higher if you wished to.

    Nobody as yet has suggested that Thistlecrack should be assessed as the best it has all been about Sizing John. I could understand and accept the view that we might have had Thistlecrack as top horse. it is a judgement call on Thistlecrack’s two performances.
    A couple of people have suggested that Smad Place’s runs at Cheltenham prove that Sizing John is better than Many Clouds. Smad Place was beaten way too far in both races to suggest that he should be used as a guide to the levels of either race.

    So is it a surprise that we can get Many Clouds to 171? Well in the last two years he has been 166 and 167. After a breathing operation it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that he could have progressed 4lbs. or 5lbs.

    However I AM surprised that he has ended up as top 3 mile chaser. Not because he doesn’t deserve to be on 171 but because I always thought a staying chaser would exceed that figure at one of the three main Festivals. The reality has been that none of the runners in those races has measured up. The proximity of Saphir du Rheu and More of That limit the level of the Gold Cup a race where the first five finishers were covered by just over a second.

    Tea For Two is the lowest rated winner of the Betway Bowl in the last 5 years while the proximity of Djakadam limits the level of the Punchestown Gold Cup. It is not his fault but Many Clouds has ended up as top 3 mile chaser by default.

    Finally back to Sizing John. I believe he will ultimately show he is a better horse than Many Clouds was. As long as he stays sound he has all the attributes needed to progress with age and experience. The great thing about top horses is that they find a way to win even when they are below their best as he was at Punchestown.

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  4. #443
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    ENABLE BEST PERFORMANCE OF THE WEEKEND / 06 JUN 17

    BHA Head of Handicapping, Phil Smith talks through last weeks notable performances from the Investec Derby Festival at Epsom.

    Performance Figures from all Class 1 races from the preceding Sunday through to Saturday to be published via the BHA website’s results pages every Tuesday morning. This is separate to the regular posting of all BHA Official Ratings, which are published here.

    It will be interesting what figures the International Handicappers come up with for their Longines World Rankings list due to be published on Thursday. It will include all performances at 120+ so far this year. Almost certain to be included is Highland Reel (123 in 2016). He had disappointed in Dubai but back on a sound surface he led all the way in the Coronation Cup.

    I have suggested 121 to my colleagues based on Elbereth reproducing her 107 rating achieved when coming second in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket in April. Highland Reel gave her the 3lbs. fillies allowance and beat her by just over 6 lengths which I have called 11lbs. The effect is to have Frontiersman improving to 117 and Hawkbill running below his best. He appeared not to get home in what Highland Reel ensured was a true test.

    Also on Friday you couldn’t help but be taken with the victory of Enable in the Oaks. Very few classics have winning distances of 5 lengths and 6 lengths and producing a record time for the race. I have Horseplay replicating her figure of 100 from winning the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket. Enable was just about 15 lengths clear of Horseplay which I have called 22lbs.

    Enable thus becomes 122 in Britain which historically is high for an Oaks winner immediately after the race. Last year Minding was 120. However Enable beat Alluringly by over 9 lengths more at Epsom than she did at Chester. Some people may feel that Alluringly ran worse when finishing third in a Group 1 than she did when finishing second in a Listed race. I am not one of them. My International colleagues vary by as much as 3lbs. in their assessment of the filly so it is by no means certain that she will be allocated 122 on Thursday.

    You couldn’t fail to be impressed with the way Wings of Eagles and his jockey won the Derby despite interference and hanging across the track. Going in to the race there were 13 of the 18 strong field rated between 109 and 113 suggesting a moderate bunch. As a result it is difficult to get the winner any higher than 119 using Douglas Macarthur on 111.

    If that is agreed over the next few days then Wings of Eagles will not be included in the Longines list for this month. However I have no doubt that he will subsequently show that he is a 120+ performer on a flat, galloping track. I have Cliffs of Moher and Cracksman on 117 and I have similar hopes for them but don’t believe they have achieved that level yet.

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    HANDICAPPING BLOG | ROYAL ASCOT 2017 / 27 JUN 17

    THE BEST KING’S STAND WINNER OF THE CENTURY

    The Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes over 5f saw a mightily impressive performance from the American-trained Lady Aurelia writes Chris Nash.

    The field raced in one group up the middle of the track. The pace was honest and resulted in a time just 0.01 seconds outside the track record. There was no trouble of any significance and certainly no unlucky losers. And it was impossible to argue any draw bias with the first three drawn 18, 1 and 9 in a field of 18. So for me this form has a very secure look to it.

    Lady Aurelia has made all in the past but was happy to take a lead this day. Once sent for home inside the final two furlongs the response was impressive. She readily skipped clear of the field and had a three lengths margin at the line.

    I decided to rate this effort at 122. She had been a wide margined winner of the Queen Mary Stakes at this meeting last year where she was credited with a figure of 121. I am happy that this run can rate a shade higher than that. Profitable (2nd) had won this race last year. Giving the winner allowances for both age and sex, there is every indication that he has reproduced his best of 116.

    Marsha (3rd) arrived rated 116 and finished a shade over three lengths behind the winner at level weights. I have her running to 113. Muthmir (4th) records a figure of 114 which is a recent best but still a touch below his career peak of 116 in 2015. All of Take Cover (5th), Alpha Delphini (6th) and Cotai Glory (7th) are capable of around the 110 mark and fully support the figure of 122 for the winner.

    The only debate to be had is whether the 122 figure slightly understates her achievement as she took this for predominantly hands and heels riding. This already rates as the best performance in this race this century.

    The previous best figure was 119 which was achieved by several winners including Choisir (2003), Miss Andretti (2007) and Scenic Blast (2009); so Lady Aurelia can certainly be viewed as an outstanding winner.

    Connections are keen to return to these shores for a crack at the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York in August where a rematch with plenty of these rivals will likely be on the cards. Remembering that she will be entitled to a 3lb fillies allowance, if she can reproduce her Ascot figure at York then a colt or gelding would have to run to 125 to match her…and no other horse has achieved anything like that sort of figure over 5f so far this season.

    ARE THE BOYS BETTER THAN THE MEN?

    It is not often in recent years that the sprints at Royal Ascot have taken centre stage but they certainly aroused a huge amount of interest this year. They did not disappoint writes Stewart Copeland.

    Since its inception in 2015 the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup has already been won by top class horses in Muhaarar and Quiet Reflection. This year’s renewal brought together three horses which already had claims to be talked of in the same bracket.

    From a form perspective, the race could hardly have worked out any better as Caravaggio came with a strong late run to haul in the pace-setting Harry Angel and win going away by three quarters of a length, with Blue Point a further half-length back in third.

    Analysis of the sectional times I took highlight how strongly Caravaggio covered the last two furlongs. In terms of distance he was at least three lengths quicker than the others which was particularly impressive as neither Harry Angel nor Blue Point were notably slowing down. It could be argued that Harry Angel went a shade too quick early in the race but Blue Point ran solid fractions throughout and provides a good guide to the race level.

    Being Irish-trained, Caravaggio does not have a published BHA mark but I would pencil him in provisionally at 121 meaning that both Harry Angel and Blue Point ran to their pre-race ratings. This has Caravaggio running to the same level that Muhaarar did in his Commonwealth Cup. Like him, there is the exciting prospect of more to come.

    The following day was the turn of the older horses in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee and, much like the above, the race was dominated by the market principals.

    It produced an equally exciting finish with The Tin Man coming with his customary late surge to deny Tasleet by a neck. Last year’s July Cup winner Limato was a further three quarters of a length away in third. The latter was impeded late on as The Tin Man hung in on him. Although he would have finished closer, Limato still looked third best on the day.

    I have The Tin Man reproducing his Champions Sprint performance of 117. This ties in well with the 116 that Tasleet ran to in winning the Duke of York last time out. It does mean that Limato ran to 115 having ran to 122 in winning last year’s July Cup. The acid test for him will come when he returns to the Newmarket course to see whether he can scale those heights again.

    The winning figure is bang on the standard for the race – the winning average is 117/118. Even though I did toy with going a shade higher, the proximity of Finsbury Square and Tupi rather set a ceiling on the race for now.

    As can be seen from the above, the 3yo 6f sprinting division overall boasts the stronger form at present; but hopefully we will find out for sure when the generations clash in the July Cup at Newmarket. It promises to be a race to saviour.

    HANGING RIBCHESTER AND A LACKLUSTRE CHURCHILL

    The traditional Royal Ascot curtain raiser The Queen Anne Stakes often produces one of the performances of the week and the 2017 renewal proved no different says Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    Ribchester set the pre-race standard with his mark of 125 gained in the Lockinge on his reappearance. He duly followed up despite hanging badly to his left in the closing stages. From a ratings perspective the race hangs together quite well with runner-up Mutakayyef and 4th placed Spectre fitting neatly on their respective marks of 120 and 114. This suggests that Ribchester performed to 123, which is 2lb shy of his Lockinge mark, but the best Queen Anne performance since the mighty Frankel’s demolition job in 2012.

    Unsurprisingly the Fahey-trained colt is currently the highest rated miler in Europe. Probably the biggest disappointment during the Royal week was the failure of Churchill (123 pre-race) to further his case for that accolade with a lacklustre performance in the St James’s Palace.

    Old rival Barney Roy gained revenge for his Guineas defeat with an improved figure of 120. Runner-up Lancaster Bomber (pre-race 117) and third placed Thunder Snow (118) gave the form a solid look in both running to 118. Churchill had beaten all three in winning the English and Irish Guineas and his performance of 111 at Ascot is 12lb off his peak. It clearly demonstrates how far below par he was.

    There are few gutsier horses on the world stage than Highland Reel and he once again highlighted that attribute when winning the Prince of Wales’s Stakes on Wednesday. Although he was definitely headed by both Decorated Knight (2nd) and Ulysses (3rd), he dug deep and battled back to win going away.

    In performing to 122 he has improved a pound on his Coronation Cup winning performance but was a pound shy of his peak 123. Similarly to the Queen Anne the race stacks up relatively neatly from a ratings perspective with the improving pair of Decorated Knight (pre-race 118) and Ulysses (116) both improving a little to 119 as front running Scottish (5th: 115) and French challenger Mekhtaal (6th: 115) set the level.

    ONE TOUGH ORANGE

    The Group 1 Gold Cup was the race of Royal Ascot 2017 says Mark Olley. As the Handicapper responsible for the stayers some may say that makes me biased; but it was a truly thrilling finish between horses that we have grown to know and love.


    Order Of St George came into the race with an Irish rating of 120. He finished six lengths in front of last year’s 114-rated St Leger winner, Harbour Law, who in turn finished three and a quarter lengths in front of 111-rated Torcedor. That all looks excessively neat and means that I have no need to alter any of their ratings.

    A couple of my international colleagues have rated Big Orange on a par with Order Of St George on 120. Their reading of the race was that Order Of St George was tactically disadvantaged by the way the race was run and by coming wide had to cover more ground than Big Orange. Both are fair points, but for the time being I have given Big Orange credit for his victory and have him on 121 (up 4lb from 117).

    There is no arguing that Big Orange was given a fine ride by James Doyle. After a slightly worrying early tussle with Quest For More for the lead, Big Orange was able to stride on. He stuck to the inside rail all the way round and dictated a pace that meant the hold up horses had to come past a horse that was not stopping in the closing stages.

    Ryan Moore must have been full of confidence on Order Of St George. He was on a horse that he knew stayed, he won the race by 3 lengths on soft ground in 2016, and that also had the pace to finish third in last season’s Arc. However, due to the fractions set by James Doyle, Order Of St George had to use his turn of foot to come past horses and then try and out-battle one of the toughest horses in training.

    I think both horses have the Goodwood Cup as their next target. It will be fascinating to watch the tactical battle unfold. My suspicion is that Big Orange is just too tough hence I am happy, for now, to have him rated the superior horse.

    From an historical point of view Big Orange is the highest rated Gold Cup winner this decade and is the best since legendary four time winner Yeats (122).

    THE TRACK RECORD 2YO

    2016 was an annus mirabilis for the Royal Ascot two-year-old races with Caravaggio’s demolition of the Coventry field from the ‘wrong’ side followed by the best performance from a filly in a decade from Lady Aurelia, and things were a fair bit quieter on the juvenile scene this time around, writes Graeme Smith.

    The Coventry went the way of Rajasinghe, who overcame a bump at the start to provide his young trainer with a ground-breaking success. A new track record certainly sounds impressive; but the fact is that conditions were clearly lightning quick with two other records lowered and Lady Aurelia missing out by only 0.01secs.

    Rajasinghe’s speed figure judged against other times on the day comes out at ‘only’ 108. A finish in which the first seven were covered by little over two lengths also tells its tale. Rajasinghe has been rated 108 after the historical standards also pointed that way. That is the joint lowest Coventry-winning performance this century with Hellvelyn and CD Europe. I am, though, sure a good few of those involved in the finish will post higher figures later in the summer and Rajasinghe is less exposed than most.

    The Windsor Castle later on the first day also returned a solid time with Sound And Silence posting a speed figure of 104 as he led home a Godolphin 1-2. Standards and time again pointed the same way and his new rating of 104 marks him as an average winner judged on the last dozen years.

    I imagine James Garfield (ran to 99, not eligible for a rating yet) will have gone into a few notebooks having started slowly and raced out on the wing before running into third. Another Batt (ran to 88, rated 90) in eighth may also have done better had he been drawn more centrally.

    The Windsor Castle carries Listed status and the Group 2 Norfolk over the same minimum trip duly looks a better race. Sioux Nation and Santry were split by the width of the track as they flashed past the line with only half a length between them. It already seems that Santry’s connections are ruing what might have been with three of the first five home having come from a group of only four to race on the far side.

    The time of the Norfolk is not quite as strong as the two contests on the opening day with a speed figure of 98. That arguably makes it all the more encouraging that the first two were able to come away from the field. It could well be that they are capable of bettering their performances of 108 and 106 respectively.

    From the fillies’ races, historical standards for the first five home in the Queen Mary pointed to a fairly strong winning performance from Heartache. However, while Heartache led to heartbreak for those who chased her home she brought on a headache for me.

    The field had not been strung out nearly enough to support the sort of positive view of the winner I had hoped to take. The first fourteen finishers were covered by less than six lengths and, even being generous with the poundage used, I reached a figure of 107 for the winner. That is behind what Lady Aurelia and Acapulco achieved but marginally better than the five winners immediately before them.

    I was impressed with the first two fillies from the Albany. I had Alpha Centauri recording a figure close to Albany-winning standard when running away with a Listed race in Ireland; yet the relatively-unconsidered French filly Different League proved even better as the pair came clear.

    It possibly took 100yds or so for the gallop to pick up but the speed figure is 101 and you can make that higher still adjusting for the headwind.

    Some observers felt Alpha Centauri should have won and I suspect she will progress further; but it struck me that Different League’s rider put his whip down a furlong out when around a length or more in front and I credited her with an extra 1lb for that to 108.

    Lastly was the Chesham. September may not fill the eye quite to the extent that her pedigree jumps off the page, but she posted a standout speed figure on Saturday’s card.

    A performance of 102 has her 4lb above the average for this century when her sex allowance is taken into account. Possibly I might still have undervalued the win. Credit also goes to the runner-up Nyaleti who had made her debut only six days earlier and responded fantastically well to an aggressive ride.

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  7. #445
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    HANDICAPPING BLOG | 18 JULY 2017 / 18 JUL 17

    BRILLIANT SPEED, BRILLIANT RIDE

    This year’s 6f Group 1 Darley July Cup attracted the smallest field since Agnes World’s victory in 2000 writes Stewart Copeland. What it lacked in quantity it certainly made up for in quality.

    Three of the field had already been successful at Group 1 level. They were Limato, triumphant in last year’s July Cup, and the winners of the two Group 1 sprints over 6f at Royal Ascot – the unbeaten 3yo Caravaggio and The Tin Man.

    In my blog after Ascot I highlighted that the overall strength of the 3yo 6f form looked marginally stronger than the older horse division so far this year and Saturday’s race franked that current view. However it was not Caravaggio who consolidated that dominance but his closest rival at Ascot, Harry Angel.

    The race itself was a fascinating affair. Pace and tactics play a crucial role in any race and this year’s July Cup was a clear example. Watching the race live at Newmarket, it was clearly evident that the early gallop was relatively modest for a top class sprint and a position up with the pace was likely to be helpful.

    That visual impression was backed up by the clock as the sectionals I took clearly showed the second half of the race was notably quicker than the first. This meant that those held up off the pace were at a disadvantage. To emphasise the point further the overall time for the race was pretty modest for a top class sprint.

    However none of that should detract from an impressive success for Harry Angel. Ridden with a shade more restraint than at Ascot with his jockey content to track the pace-making Intelligence Cross. Harry Angel quickened in tremendous style 2f out and soon took control of the race. He never looked in any real danger thereafter. He has brilliant speed in abundance and his jockey utilised that to maximum effect with a great tactical ride.

    As for assessing the race, the relatively modest gallop to halfway meant the overall field finished rather in a heap; so, at present, there is a degree of caution in settling on a level. Over the years I would expect a winning performance in the region of at least 118 or 119. For now I have credited Harry Angel with the latter figure. He was 118 after the Commonwealth Cup where there was reasons from the sectionals to think he was slightly better than the bare form that day. Therefore I am happy to credit him with the slightly higher figure.

    That ties in well with the prominently ridden Limato. He finished an admirable length and a quarter second in trying to defend his crown reproducing the 115 he ran in defeat in the Diamond Jubilee. A most creditable effort from him but still below his peak of 122 last year.

    Brando ran an excellent race a further half-length back in third staying on strongly from the rear. This was a performance which could be marked up given how the race panned out. I have him running to 114 but there is no doubt in my mind he is still at least as good as the 116 he was already rated.

    Finally Caravaggio may have lost his unbeaten record in finishing a narrow fourth but he still emerges from the race with plenty of credit. Quite simply he did not get the decent pace to aim at that he had at Ascot. The tempo of the race did not play to his strengths. As I said in my Ascot blog, we do not publish BHA ratings for Irish horses but my view at present is that his Commonwealth Cup win should remain unchanged at 121.

    GUINEAS FAVOURITE HAS IT TO PROVE


    Newmarket’s July Festival saw the latest round of major juvenile clashes. While we are still waiting for a potential superstar to announce their arrival with a big performance, there were one or two pointers if you read between the lines writes Graeme Smith.

    Clemmie has looked a different filly in recording two pattern successes since finishing only seventh in the Albany. She posted her second 107-performance in succession when drawing away from the Chesham runner-up Nyaleti in the Bet365 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes.

    What looked a potentially interesting clash turned into a fairly comfortable success for Clemmie and it is easy to envisage her putting up a 110+ performance in the months ahead. She clocked a useful time and both that and the historical standards pointed in the direction of 107.

    The third, fourth and fifth each showed improvement. Mistress of Venice had been drawn on the wrong side in the Albany. The Queen Mary third Out Of The Flames was stepping up in trip. The level has a solid foundation further back with So Hi Society and Darkanna having matched the figures they had achieved in the Empress (over the same course and distance) and Queen Mary respectively.

    I now have several fillies around the 107/108 mark and the early signs suggest I could be raising Different League and Alpha Centauri from the Albany before long. From the first ten home only three have run subsequently but Clemmie and Actress have registered three pattern successes between them and Mistress of Venice also did her bit to boost the form.

    Cardsharp became the first British-trained juvenile to reach 110 when scoring decisively in the Arqana July Stakes.

    Mark Johnston’s son of Lonhro was having his sixth start in little over ten weeks and is clearly thriving on a busy campaign just as the Middle Park-winner The Last Lion did for the same stable last year. Interestingly, the runner-up U S Navy Flag was also having his sixth start.

    Following Cardsharp’s third in the Norfolk, the step back up to 6f really suited him and a speed figure of 108 goes a good way to substantiating the performance.

    The Coventry winner Rajasinghe had to settle for third under his 3lb penalty. He shaped as though a step up to 7f might be required; but the early signs from his Ascot race are not positive. Four of the first five have failed to do much for the form in subsequent starts.

    The headline act amongst the juveniles was Gustav Klimt who was promoted to favourite for the 2000 Guineas following his narrow success in the Bet365 Superlative Stakes. His figure of 108 does not come close to justifying that reaction.

    He is clearly a smart prospect having overcome trouble in running and he might step up significantly in the future.

    A speed figure of 95 shows the gallop was not end-to-end and I felt Gustav Klimt was caught flat-footed when the tempo increased. That played a part in the trouble he met. The interference and need to switch probably cost him the best part of two lengths. I gave him an extra 3lb adjustment for that. It might prove conservative and I am confident that he will improve further, particularly when faced with a true test. We should learn a lot more about him next time.

    ROLY POLY BACK TO HER BEST


    Whilst stablemate Winter has been setting the standard amongst the 3yo fillies over a mile this year, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill, Roly Poly grabbed some Group 1 glory of her own on Friday with an all the way success in the Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes.


    Relatively exposed after twelve previous starts she went into the contest with a pre-race mark of 112. Her very highest rating was a 115 as a 2yo. I find it difficult to believe that winning a Falmouth is inferior form to finishing 2nd in the Lowther and Cheveley Park last season so have credited her with returning to the 115 level this time. She has made gradual improvement in every start since her reappearance in the Nell Gwyn and that pattern looks to have been continued.

    At 115 she matches the performances of the last two winners of the race Alice Springs (2016) and Amazing Maria (2015).The chosen level for the contest has Wuheida (2nd: pre-race 114) running a very commendable 112 on her first start since early October. The improving Arabian Hope (3rd) goes up 3b to 111. Sea of Grace (4th) was a pound below the level she showed on soft ground in the French 1000 Guineas and German challenger Delectation (5th) was also a pound below her current mark of 106.

    UNPRECEDENTED TREBLE IN THE OFFING?


    The 3yos may have made the headlines in the July Cup but it was the veterans who shone brightest in the big races over five furlongs on Saturday writes Andrew Mealor.
    The 10yo Take Cover gained an eleventh career success in York’s listed City Walls Stakes, a race he had also landed as a 7yo back in 2014.

    Historical standards for this well-established event point to a figure in the 110 region for the winner and it is likely that he did not need to improve on his pre-race rating of 111 in beating Final Venture by half a length with Cotai Glory a further neck back in third. Another trip to Goodwood for the King George Stakes will presumably be next for Take Cover when he will bid to land an unprecedented treble having already won that race in 2014 and 2016.

    King’s Stand third Marsha was in action in Ireland over the weekend when she was narrowly turned over at short odds in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes. This was by the other British runner in the field, Caspian Prince, who gained a first success in Group company at the age of eight.

    Going into the race with a rating of 116 (and in receipt of the 3 lb fillies’ allowance), it’s unlikely that Marsha was quite at her best despite beaten just a short head (pair clear). It still looks a career best from Caspian Prince despite his advancing years. He was rated 110 following his success in the ‘Dash’ at Epsom last month off a mark of 107 and has now moved up to 115. The form of Marsha’s win in the Palace House Stakes has been downgraded slightly, and she is now also rated 115.

    Finally, it’s worth giving a mention to Danzeno who produced a smart effort off top weight when landing a competitive handicap at Ascot on Saturday, beating Polybius by three-quarters of a length. He has gone back to his 2016 peak mark of 109 (up 5 lb) as a result. A run in the Stewards’ Cup under a 6-lb penalty could be next, though potentially more interesting for the Goodwood showpiece could be Polybius who didn’t get the rub of the green at Ascot having met traffic problems in rear. He has gone up 4 lb to a mark of 106 but can race off his old mark of 102 in the Stewards’ Cup.

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    HANDICAPPERS BLOG | GLORIOUS GOODWOOD / 08 AUG 17

    CAN BATTAASH BEAT THE LADY?


    One of the Goodwood performances of the week was produced by Battaash in Friday’s Group 2 Qatar King George Stakes writes Chris Nash. Battaash lined up as a lightly-raced progressive sprinter rated 115. He had produced career best figures on his previous two runs this season and he continued his upward momentum with a sparkling display.


    The race looked to be run at an honest pace with Take Cover bowling along in his customary style. Battaash was able to track that pace travelling comfortably before skipping clear to win by two and a quarter lengths from Profitable. The filly Marsha was a further three quarters of a length back in third and Take Cover the same distance away in fourth. The second, third and fourth here had finished second, third and fifth in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot where they had run figures of 116, 113 and 110 respectively. For sprint form their performances tie in very neatly and point to a figure of 122 for Battaash which is another significant career best. This has the next three home running to 115+, 110 and 111 and this form has a really solid look to it.

    In the context of the Goodwood race Battaash has produced the best performance this century – the previous best was a figure of 118 by Kingsgate Native in 2009. In terms of the sprinting division he has shown himself to be a real challenger to Lady Aurelia in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes to be run at York later this month. Regular readers of this blog might recall me rating her 122+ after her victory in the King’s Stand and explaining that because she receives a 3lb fillies allowance a colt or gelding would have to run to a figure of 125 to match her. Maybe, just maybe, we have found one who can. Fingers crossed that both make it to York in top shape because if they do then an intriguing clash awaits.

    2yo sprinters contested the Group 3 Bombay Sapphire Molecomb Stakes run on Wednesday. This race was run on Soft ground which led to some significant non-runners. It was a new test for several of the participants including the winner Havana Grey. He had shown himself to be a nicely progressive sprinter with victory in a Listed race last time out and arrived at Goodwood rated 109. He made just about all of the running against the stands rail and saw it out really well to beat Invincible Army by a length and three quarters with a nose further back to To Wafij in third.

    WHETHER TO RAISE WHEN


    As a Handicapper one of the questions I often ask myself, says Dominic Gardiner-Hill, is “are we rating the inherent ability of the horse or is form largely a mathematical exercise?” Last week’s Qatar Sussex Stakes provided a classic case of this conundrum.


    After twenty eight previous starts, the highest Here Comes When has ever been was 116 after winning the 2014 running of the Challenge Stakes at Newmarket. He had not managed to reproduce that subsequently – until last Wednesday!!

    Given the horses that he beat, it would mathematically be easy to get him as high as 119 – pretty standard for a Group 1 winner although on the low side for the Sussex Stakes. But did he really wake up a 3lb better horse than ever before or where there other factors at work?

    On a filthy, rain swept day when the ground was getting softer by the minute, the likelihood is that he handled the conditions better than anything else in the race. As such, I have him returning to that peak level of 116. This suggests that runner-up Ribchester (115) was anywhere between 8 and 10lb below the level of form he showed to win the Lockinge and the Queen Anne and Lightning Spear in third was 3lb below his current mark of 117.

    It may seem harsh to have him rated behind four horses (Zelzal & Lancaster Bomber will also remain higher) that he has just beaten to win a Group 1. Given his overall record and his ability to handle desperate conditions better than most, it sits comfortably with me at present. Should he go on to run to a higher figure in something like the QEII, I will be happy to give him due recognition and raise his mark accordingly.

    Far more predictable than Here Comes When’s success was Winter’s victory in the Nassau. It was her fourth Group 1 success of the season on her first attempt at 10f. In running to a mark of 118 I do not believe that she achieved anything more than she had done previously; but she could do no more than win. Having now beaten the older fillies, it will be interesting to see if she is pitched in against the boys at some point during the autumn.

    Whilst Here Comes When was rightly the chief flag waver for the Balding yard, they have another quality miler on their hands in Beat The Bank who took his career record to four wins from five races in landing the Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) in style on Friday.

    Clearly top rated before the race, he extended his superiority over third placed Forest Ranger (106) by a long looking three lengths and a neck. His new mark of 114 still leaves him some way off genuine Group 1 class but he is heading in the right direction.

    TAKING THE EYE


    Following a quiet first half of the season, the two-year-old division really sprang into life in the last ten days writes Graeme Smith. The star shining brightest of all is undoubtedly Expert Eye who blew his rivals away in the Qatar Vintage Stakes.

    Successful in what is proving to be a very hot novice at Newbury seven weeks previously, Expert Eye carried Andrea Atzeni to the front approaching the last 2f when everything else was hard off the bridle. He then ran right away from them for hands-and-heels riding. Four and a half lengths was the margin over the improving Zaman at the line.

    Race standards pointed to 117 and I have no doubt this is the best 2yo performance of the season so far. Expert Eye currently tops the class on 117 which is the highest performance in the Vintage this century even considering that Shamardal, Sir Percy, Highland Reel and Galileo Gold all won the race within that period.

    That Newbury novice won by Expert Eye received another endorsement when Barraquero ran out a clear-cut winner of the Qatar Richmond Stakes later in the week. By this stage testing ground was muddying the waters somewhat. I certainly do not believe that we saw the best of the July Stakes-winner Cardsharp in third or the Coventry runner-up Headway, who did a solo against the stand rail.

    The speed figure was only 95 and, while race standards suggested a figure in the region of 113 to 115, I felt the low point of that range was most appropriate for now. That level is supported on a line through the runner-up Nebo, who on 109 remains 3lb ahead of the Vintage runner-up Zaman after beating him by that margin in the Superlative. I have also revisited the Superlative and now feel Gustav Klimt’s performance is worth at least 110.

    One of the most memorable performances of the week came from Billesdon Brook. She overcame all sorts of trouble with a dazzling late surge in the Telegraph Nursery nailing her stablemate Cheeky Rascal right on the line. The winner was a major blot on the handicap with a 9lb rise pending following her Listed placing the previous week. She would have run out a clear-cut winner with a better run. She remains on 96 and should hold her own back up in grade.

    The pick of the fillies at this stage is Nyaleti. She had run to 114 when destroying the opposition in the Princess Margaret at Ascot the previous weekend. She looks the best in Britain by some way although it is worth bearing in mind that both September and Clemmie had beaten her previously; so they may well get to that level themselves when the opportunity arises.

    To update from the Royal Ascot blog, the Albany form is proving strong and a recalibration puts Different League in the 110 bracket with Alpha Centauri on 108.

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    HANDICAPPERS BLOG | EBOR FESTIVAL / 29 AUG 17

    ULYSSES IS THE MAN


    The Juddmonte International, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill, rarely fails to throw up a top quality winner. Last Wednesday’s renewal proved no exception with Sir Michael Stoute’s improving four-year-old Ulysses seeing off the current cream of the three-year-old colt crop in the shape of Churchill and Barney Roy.


    My immediate reaction, which went out on social media just after the race, was that I was leaning towards a figure of 127 for Ulysses and having now had time to consider the contest I see no reason to change my mind. This suggests that Churchill in second has run to his pre-race mark of 123, reproducing his Irish 2000 Guineas defeat of the consistent Thunder Snow. It has Barney Roy improving slightly on his 120 performances in the St James’s Palace and the Eclipse to a mark of 122. I am happy with that as you would expect a top class three-year-old to continue improving as the season progresses.

    There were suggestions in some quarters that I had undervalued the Eclipse in which Ulysses had got the better of the Hannon colt by a whisker. As I said at the time, it was a messy race and I was slightly concerned about the proximity of 50-1 shot Desert Encounter in third. To my mind the International was a much cleaner race and provides a much more reliable guide to their ability.

    At 127 Ulysses stands up well from a historical perspective. Since the turn of the century the only superior winning performances in the race were posted by Frankel (140 in 2012), Sakhee (133 in 2001), Sea The Stars (129 in 2009) and Authorized (128 in 2007). It places him on a par with the 2003 winner Falbrav. Exalted company indeed.

    WHAT ABOUT MARSHA?


    The 5f Group 1 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes was the feature race on the Friday card. It had been billed, writes Chris Nash, as a battle between Lady Aurelia and Battaash. Both arrived rated 122 and if either could have been an authoritative winner then we may well have seen the best 5f figures in Europe this century. But neither did win. Marsha did.
    Take nothing away from Marsha, who was already a Group 1 winner courtesy of her win in the 2016 Prix de L’Abbaye. She was the best horse on the day at York. The problem from a form perspective is that Marsha had been beaten by just over 3 lengths by Lady Aurelia in the the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot and had then been been beaten by 3 lengths by Battaash when he won the King George at Goodwood.

    She met both on exactly the same terms at York and beat them. Does that make her better than both of them? Should she be rated above both of them? There is obviously an argument that she could be, but that is not my view.

    The main reason is the presence of Cotai Glory in 3rd. He is a consistent horse who often runs in the Group 1 sprints. His best effort at the top level was in the 2016 King’s Stand where he finished second. That was a run which we think was worth a rating of 112. He ran consistently enough after that and won a Group 3 at Newbury in September but was beaten over 5 lengths in this year’s King Stand, finishing seventh and running to a figure of 109. For me he is a 112 horse at his best.

    At York he was beaten by just over 3¾ lengths, a 12lb margin, but was also giving the winner 3lbs, making him 9lb behind Marsha. That would put Marsha on a rating of 121, the same figure that Mecca’s Angel recorded in winning the Nunthorpe last year.

    Lady Aurelia finished a nose behind Marsha, running to a figure of 120. I am happy for her official rating to remain at 122 for now as the style of her victory at Ascot is difficult to forget. Battaash has not run to form and recorded a figure of just 108. He was warm in the paddock and somewhat reluctant to go into the stalls, so perhaps there are excuses for his below par performance. He must be forgiven this for now and his rating will remain at 122. Perhaps the Group 1 Prix de L’Abbaye, run at Chantilly on Arc day, will shed further light on the pecking order amongst the very strong crop of sprinters.

    WORTH A CRACK AT THE ARC?


    It is fair to say that the European middle-distance three-year-old colts have lacked a standout performer so far this season, says Adam Barnes. However, last Wednesday’s Group 2 Betway Great Voltigeur Stakes went at least some way towards remedying that situation.

    Cracksman had not looked the finished article when placed in both The Derby and its Irish equivalent. He appealed as having the potential to progress further as he gained experience and, in running out a wide-margin winner on the Knavesmire, he did just that.

    After tracking what was a fairly solid pace, Cracksman briefly looked flat-footed, not for the first time, as the tempo lifted at the top of the straight. However, just a matter of strides later he quickened up well to dispute the lead before continuing to power away and he was six lengths superior to Venice Beach at the line. That rival himself was well clear of the rest although quite how meaningful that is looks open to question. Mirage Dancer was quite keen and appeared stretched by this first try at 1m4f, with the remainder also having possible excuses for their below-par runs.

    Both historical standards and a line through the 113-rated runner-up point towards a figure in the low-120s for this performance. As such Cracksman is now rated 122, up 5lb from 117. This makes him the highest-rated winner of the Great Voltigeur this century, with Sea Moon (2011) and Rewilding (2010) on 121 the previous highest in that timeframe. Given his strength at the line and the aforementioned impression that this is a horse very much ‘learning on the job’, it would be no surprise if he can go on and achieve a higher rating yet.

    Cracksman’s connections seem torn between putting him away for the year to focus on a four-year-old campaign or letting him take his chance in something like the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe this autumn. After this display he would be well worth his place in that contest.

    If Cracksman does indeed end up lining up at Chantilly on the first Sunday in October he is likely to face the formidable task of taking on stablemate Enable. She made it four Group 1s in a row when making all and scoring by a dominant five lengths in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday. Enable did not need to quite run up to her rating of 126 to do so but that is no negative and she was simply doing what she had to do on the day. Her proven ability to run to a consistently high level and to handle a variety of track types, ground conditions and tactical scenarios, marks her down as very much the one to beat at Chantilly.

    STAYERS TO THE FORE


    I will just touch briefly on was a relatively busy week of high-class racing in the staying division, writes Mark Olley. The Group 2 Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup at York tookcentre stage with the Betfred Ebor and Melrose Handicaps close behind, as well as the Listed March Stakes at Goodwood

    Dartmouth came into the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup with the joint highest BHA rating of 115. As a Group 2 winner, Michael Stoute’s colt had to concede a 3lb penalty and he also had his stamina to prove over this longer 2m trip. He certainly did the latter and many observers thought that he was the winner as he flashed by the post alongside Montaly. The photo proved otherwise and he had to settle for second. I have left his rating unchanged, as I have St Michel (112) who was half a length back in third in receipt of 3lb.

    The biggest mover in the race was Montaly who improved 8lb to a new rating of 113. He won the Chester Cup Handicap from a rating of 99 in May before finishing second to Nearly Caught in a Listed event at Sandown. He is clearly fast improving. The race standard is around 113 and he matches this.

    Nakeeta gained an overdue big handicap win in the Betfred Ebor. Iain Jardine’s gelding has been running in many of the big staying handicaps. He was runner-up in the Chester Cup last season and also second in a Listed race at York in May. His rating has been climbing and it now reaches a career high 108 (+5) for this game defeat of Flymetothestars (106) and the arguably unlucky in running Natural Scenery.

    The Betfred Melrose Handicap is confined to three-year-olds and Secret Advisor came from an unpromising looking position entering the final furlong to beat the fellow Godolphin-owned Bin Battuta. The winner’s rating rises 7lb to 103.

    Trainer Mark Johnston does not strike me as someone who suffers from regrets. His three-year-old Hochfeld ran away with a 1m6f handicap at Newmarket on Saturday, for which his rating moves up 9lb to 101, and I wonder if he feels the Melrose is a race that “got away”?

    YORKSHIRE’S FINEST


    One of the biggest week in Yorkshire’s racing calendar brought huge success in the two-year-old division for the county’s trainers and not all of it was on the Knavesmire, writes Graeme Smith.

    The week could hardly have started any better as the two horses Karle Burke sent to the Group 1 Darley Prix Morny at Deauville filled the first two places. Havana Grey continued his progression on his first start at 6f (up 4lb to 113) but that was not enough to cope with Unfortunately. He stepped up 7lb from his Robert Papin success to a figure of 117. That includes an extra 1lb for the fact his rider did not need to be hard on him. Karl Burke looks to have assembled an admirable team of two-year-olds this season, with Raydiance and the twice-raced Laurens having also posted figures north of 100 already.

    117 sits towards the top end of standards for the Morny but, with third-placed Different League having posted 110 when winning a strong Albany, I felt it was justified. The only disappointment for Yorkshire stables in the race came in the form of Nyaleti who could finish only sixth. She is better than this but I have eased her Princess Margaret form back 1lb to 113 as others from the race have also disappointed.

    And so to York, where all three group races for juveniles stayed in the county. First up was the admirable Wells Farhh Go, who looks as good a juvenile as Tim Easterby has had in a long time. He had impressed as a powerful galloper when overcoming greenness to win a York novice in July. It was much the same again upped in grade for the Tattersalls Acomb Stakes.

    Things were rather set up for those coming from off the pace with the first four having all raced in the second half of the field. That is not to belittle what Wells Farhh Go achieved less than four weeks into his career and a step up to 1m could bring better yet. Race standards pointed to a 106-108 ballpark and at 107 he rates as an average Acomb winner at this stage. It seems he may be heading for the Racing Post Trophy next.

    James Garfield looks to be knocking on the door for a Group success and stepped up again from 104 to 106 in going down by a nose. He looks very straightforward and genuine.

    The Sky Bet Lowther was run at a pace that made the principals dig deep in the finish and Mark Johnston’s Threading showed tremendous fight to prevail. This was just three weeks after her wide-margin debut success at Goodwood. A speed figure of 102 was comparable to the soundly-run sales race; but hand-timed sectionals showed they were losing ground on the clock relative to their ability in the latter stages. As such a more strung-out finish might have been expected. Also considering the form of some of the more establishes fillies, I pitched the race a shade below standard with Threading at 108. The average winning performance from the last six years is 112.

    The biggest juvenile performance on the Knavesmire undoubtedly came from Richard Fahey’s Sands of Mali. His Nottingham success had received a major endorsement when the runner-up Eirene landed a listed race at Newbury. Sands Of Mali blew a field of established pattern performers apart with an all-the-way-success. Invincible Army got to within a length or so a furlong out only for Sands of Mali to run away again to score by almost three lengths.

    His speed figure was muddied somewhat by the time posted in the 1m6f Melrose, but judged against two other races on the straight track it’s 115, which complements his performance of 116. He could be on a collision course with Unfortunately in the Middle Park now.

    Cardsharp’s July Stakes form is starting to look questionable and following his dead-heat for third under a 3lb penalty he’s back 1lb to 109. The Coventry form is going the same way and Headway comes back 1lb to 106 after finishing upsides Cardsharp, though in fairness he’s probably ready for 7f now.

    To add to an excellent week for Yorkshire-trained juveniles, Mildenberger took the listed EBF British Stallion Studs Stonehenge Stakes at Salisbury. He was almost undone in a tactical race and did not have to match his 104 figure to reel in Richard Hanon’s Albishr late.

    Hannon rather spoiled the party for the home team in the very valuable Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes at York as his Tangled trumped Great Prospector and Hey Jonesy. Evidently the step up to 7f wasn’t the sole reason for the improvement he showed when running away with a Newmarket nursery as he looked more than comfortable back at 6f, and stepped up another 10lb to 102. Great Prospector’s performance fell 4lb shy of the 105 he’d achieved over 7f in the Superlative Stakes at Goodwood and Hey Jonesy posted the best figure in the race at 103 under his 3lb penalty. He went into many a notebook as he raced in a smaller group of eight which included the last five home and he may well have been disadvantaged.

    Goodwood also staged a pattern race in the form of the Group 3 Grosvenor Sport Prestige Stakes. Billesdon Brook had overcome all sorts of trouble when snatching a last-gasp win in a nursery at the track’s Festival fixture. She showed even better form as she confirmed superiority over Whitefountainfairy from Sandown. 100 was the winning figure and I raised Sandown’s Star Stakes, won by subsequent Group 3 scorer Tajaanus, 2lb on the back of it.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Timeform are taking the **** with their ratings for sprinters. They have Battaash and LA both on 135 which means they have to upgrade the very average Profitable to a redonkulous mark of 125. **** outta here.

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    The Doncaster William Hill St Leger Festival 2017 | Handicappers Blog
    20 Sep 17



    Classy classic for Capri

    The Group 1 William Hill St Leger, writes Mark Olley, looked to have real strength in depth with five horses coming into the race on pre-race ratings at least equal to last year’s winner Harbour Law (114). It was a truly run race, the sectional times are available on the Attheraces website, and with the highest rated horses fighting out the finish it certainly did not disappoint.


    Capri won the Irish Derby when last seen in July. He beat Cracksman there and that horse’s subsequent wins in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur at York and the Group 2 Prix Niel at Chantilly make that look even better form now. Capri came into this race with an Irish rating of 120 and, after consultation with Irish handicapper Garry O’Gorman, we think he repeated that here.

    Aidan O’Brien’s colt was always in the leading group (excluding runaway leader The Anvil), he went on with three furlongs to run and galloped all the way to the line. He was always holding Crystal Ocean and if anything started to go away again in the final few yards and we called the winning half-length margin 2lb because of this.

    Crystal Ocean raced a different tactical race from that of Capri. He was held up until making his effort with over three furlongs to go. He then ran the fastest furlong of any horse at any stage of the race (excluding front runner The Anvil’s early couple of furlongs) from two furlongs out to the furlong pole, before flattening out and running the final furlong in around the same time as Capri. It is easy to see why Sir Michael Stoute wants to drop him back to 12f. With a new rating of 118 (+4), he must surely have his say in the top middle distance races next season especially if he continues to improve the way he already has.

    Stradivarius won the slowly run Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot before proving his stamina by landing the Group 1 Qatar Goodwood Cup where he beat leading stayer Big Orange. That was a very hard race to rate at the time; but, with Desert Skyline (third) winning the Group 2 Doncaster Cup earlier in the week, I have upgraded it and now have Stradivarius on a rating of 118. John Gosden’s colt maintained his speed as well as anything in the final furlong of the Leger and a return to 2m looks certain to suit.

    From an historical point of view Capri is the best winner since Masked Marvel (121) in 2011 and is the joint-fourth highest rated this century behind Conduit (122) in 2008, Milan (122) in 2001 and the afore mentioned Masked Marvel.

    The Group 2 Doncaster Cup was won by the sole three year old in the race, Desert Skyline (112). On face value this might have added fuel to the fire over the weight-for-age allowance that three year olds receive from older horses (12lb in this instance). However, it may not be that simple as Desert Skyline came into the race as the joint-third best rated horse and by far the least exposed. This was just his third race at around 2m while the horses that finished second, third, fourth and fifth were aged seven, eight, nine and nine respectively. Without wishing to play down any of their achievements their best days are probably behind them now with the possible exception of runner-up Thomas Hobson.

    The third main staying race of the week was the Group 2 DFS Park Hill Stakes for fillies. This turned into a very tactical affair and Alyssa showed the benefit of racing prominently when the pace is slow. Her new rating of 103 is one of the lowest in recent times for this race, but that often happens when races are slowly run and they all finish in a heap. Only two lengths covered the first five home.

    A faster run race may well have seen a different result but there is every chance that the prize money would still have gone to Ralph Beckett. Melodic Motion dead-heated for second and a glance at her sectional times make interesting reading. Held up off the slow pace, she ran some of the fastest splits for each of the final three furlongs but that effort told late on. Despite running the final furlong in around the same time of the winner, stablemate Alyssa, her run petered out in the final few yards.

    Heartache is good

    The Group 2 Wainwrights Flying Childers Stakes looked a fascinating match on paper beforehand, writes Adam Barnes, and it did not disappoint in the event.

    The filly Heartache and the colt Havana Grey engaged in an absorbing battle and pulled well clear of their rivals. Karl Burke’s admirable colt looked the likeliest winner entering the final furlong but Heartache gamely found extra and was ultimately half a length superior at the line.


    Despite a possible lack of depth to the rest of the field by Group 2 standards, several factors point towards Heartache being an above-average winner of the race. These include the quick time, the significant distance from second to third and the solidity of Havana Grey’s profile. As such Heartache goes up 4lb to 111 which makes her the highest rated two year old filly in the country. Havana Grey remains on the 113 rating he was awarded for his runner-up effort in the Prix Morny last month. I did have him running 1lb below that figure here.

    The Group 1 Cheveley Park over 6f at Newmarket is apparently under consideration for Heartache’s next run with next year’s Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot mentioned by Clive Cox as a possible longer-term target. Her strength at the line here offers encouragement that a sixth furlong could be within her range. Connections of Havana Grey stated that he may now be put away for the season.

    Another fascinating race was the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Conditions Stakes on the opening day of the St Leger meeting. Small-field affairs are often tricky to assess confidently and this race certainly fell into that category, especially with favourite Demons Rock clearly failing to give his running.

    Nevertheless, John Kirkup and Beatbox Rhythm looked to broadly run their races and, in scoring by seven lengths, the Owen Burrows-trained Shabaaby improved significantly to put up a performance of note.

    He is rated 109 on the back of this. Shabaaby does not hold any fancy entries and is described as “still a shell of a horse” by his trainer. One for the notebook and it will be interesting to see how he progresses whether that be this season or in 2018.

    Champagne moment

    It’s not often Aidan O’Brien goes a decade between drinks in a juvenile pattern race and Seahenge came to the rescue as he provided the trainer with his first Howcroft Industrial Supplies Champagne Stakes success since 2008 when prevailing in a tight three-way finish, writes Graeme Smith.

    The two Ballydoyle runners were only fifth and sixth in the betting in the seven-strong field but, nevertheless, Seahenge took a marked step forward to get the better of the progressive pair Hey Gaman and Mythical Magic.

    With Hey Gaman beating the fourth-placed Red Mist by a good deal further than he had in a photo at Newbury last month it was clear he had stepped forward again. Race standards pointed to a figure of 111 or 112 for Seahenge and I felt 112 to be the better fit. Hey Gaman went up 8lb to 111 and Mythical Magic went up 5lb to 110 even though the last-named is not yet eligible for a published mark.

    Seahenge emerges as the joint-lowest Champagne winner since Westphalia won for his stable in 2008 and the joint-second-lowest since the turn of the century. A speed figure of 93 stops short of endorsing the form; but the flip side of that is to say that in coming from last in a race that wasn’t run at an end-to-end gallop Seahenge could be more superior than the bare margins suggest.

    Seahenge paid a compliment to Expert Eye who had beaten him handsomely in the Vintage Stakes. I feel Seahenge was more professional at Doncaster than he had been at Goodwood although I’m still not sure he looked entirely straightforward. Whether he is working through greenness or exhibiting a slight kink, only time will tell.

    The William Hill May Hill produced an even tighter finish with four fillies covered by less than half a length. Again that limits the view I can take of the form but there is a lot to like about the winner Laurens. I feel that she reproduced the 105 performance she had recorded when chasing the impressive Polydream home in the Calvados.

    There is a line via Billesdon Brook that would support having the May Hill as high as 107 and that is in the back of my mind; but with standards suggesting anything from 103 to 105 I have settled on middle ground until more evidence emerges.

    As a footnote, Nyaleti failed to confirm her Princess Margaret form for a second time and her figure has been reined back further to 110.

    One of the most heart-warming successes during the week came from Tip Two Win in the Weatherbys Flying Scotsman Stakes which made for a momentous day for his trainer Roger Teal. He hadn’t had the rub of the green when second in Ripon’s Champion Two Yrs Old Trophy – though he’d have had his work cut out with Enjazaat anyway – and Tip Two Win also clearly relished the step up to 7f. A two lengths success over Tigre du Terre and Aqabah sees him up 9lb to 107 and he is now a genuine Group 3 contender.
    Last edited by Perpetual; 25th September 2017 at 1:32 PM.

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Head of handicapping, Phil Smith, to retire next year.

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    Phil Smith: 152$

    One-time fair performer. Temperament under suspicion. Prone to blunders, and a tendency to find little under pressure in recent seasons.





    I wish him all the best with his retirement.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    He'll still do it but not get paid for it now

    He should of kept going when still healthy
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    He pretty much single-handedly revolutionised the art/skill of handicapping in this country.

    I hope he has procedures in place for the work he has started and developed to continue at least until I retire from punting myself.

    God help us all if Dominic Gardner-Hill takes over...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    How would the handicapper view the 6.40 at Kempton eg were the first 2 to meet again in a handicap?

    I backed the winner for a tenner so no axe to grind but lucky for me James Doyle was unlucky or fooked up big time depending on your view

    Switched right start, held up in rear, headway on inside chasing leaders 2f out, went 3rd inside final furlong, stayed on into 2nd never able to challenge op 2/1 tchd 7/4 and tchd 5/


    He actually dived in behind the entire field to get to the rail couldn't make any ground for most of the race and ended up 10 to 12 lengths behind Tivoli and never stood a chance of catching him....

    If I read the above I wouldn't think too much of it and would give the 2nd 2 or 3 pounds
    but if I saw the race I'd be tempted to give him nothing.

    There's not enough time in anyone's day to do the job properly imo
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Triomphe indeed

    Andrew Mealor looks back on a memorable success for Enable in the 96th running of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Europe’s richest race.

    In receipt of both the weight-for-age and weight-for-sex allowance, Enable looked the standout performer at the weights prior to this year’s Arc but she still improved both her form and standing with a commanding success.

    In a relatively trouble-free race considering the big field, Enable was handy from an early stage just off the pacemaking Idaho and his stablemate Order of St George. Having travelled supremely well, Enable soon had the race in safe keeping once Dettori sent her on with two furlongs to go, coming home two and a half lengths clear of Cloth Of Stars with Ulysees a further length and a quarter back in third.

    As far as rating the race goes, the proximity of Cloth Of Stars looked a potential fly in the ointment at first glance given he came in rated 117 and had been beaten into second by Dschingis Secret (120) in the Foy over the Arc course and distance three weeks previously. However, improvement from him isn’t unwarranted given his overall profile as a 4yo who has not had many tries at twelve furlongs. In addition, the Foy was his first outing since May and the overall result looks solid going down the field with most of the runners finishing roughly where expected.

    Fourth home Order of St George in particular gives a good guide to the level having finished third in last year’s Arc and he has looked as good as ever this season.


    As with all of the big Group 1 races worldwide, the final published figures are a result of consultation between the relevant Handicappers in each country. Following those discussions, Enable has been allotted a new mark of 128, up 2 lb from her pre-race 126.

    Calling her margin of victory 6 lb (factoring in the ease of the win) brings Cloth Of Stars out at 125 after the 3 lb (1.5kg) fillies allowance is taken into account. That is roughly around the figure you would expect a runner-up in the Arc to achieve judged on the standard of recent renewals. He comprehensively reversed the Foy form with Dschingis Secret who was not far off his best in sixth despite charting a wide passage.

    Ulysees did not quite run to his best in the Arc and remains 2 lb ahead of Cloth of Stars on 127, a figure he achieved over ten furlongs in the Juddmonte International. Also placed behind Enable in the King George earlier this season, Ulysees clearly has high-class form at twelve furlongs; but it may well be that slightly shorter suits him ideally. He was a bit keen at Chantilly.

    Getting back to Enable, a winning figure of 128 is well up to scratch for an Arc winner and is bang on the average rating achieved in the race by the previous ten winners.

    Fillies have been remarkably successful in the Arc in recent years, with only three of the last ten renewals going to the males, a sequence kicked off by Zarkava in 2008. Enable is now rated the equal of both her and 2011 winner Danedream, and behind only Treve (who was rated 130 after a five-length with in 2013) amongst the winning fillies in that period.

    Treve, of course, returned to complete an Arc double in 2014, a feat that Enable will hopefully be given a chance to emulate in 2018 when the race moves back to the newly-renovated Longchamp

    The final European Group 1 race over 5f was the Qatar Abbaye de Longchamp run on Arc day and it produced a commanding performance from Battaash writes Chris Nash. He disputed the lead early and led before halfway before powering clear of his rivals to win by four lengths from Marsha with Profitable a further neck away in third.


    Marsha had won the Nunthorpe last time and arrived rated 121 and Profitable had run in all the big sprints in 2017 generally performing with credit and arrived rated 115. In blowing them away I was really hopeful that I could get Battaash to a figure of 125+; but the form of the Abbaye is somewhat tempered by the next two home – the British trained Duke Of Firenze (4th) and Queen Kindly (5th). This meant that I felt I could only get Battaash to a figure of 123+ which put Marsha well below her Nunthorpe form at 108, Profitable at 110, Duke of Firenze at 107 (he arrived rated 104) and Queen Kindly running to her pre-race mark of 103. Yet the only horse to have run a higher figure in the race this century was the John Oxx trained Namid who was given a figure of 127 for his win in the 2000 renewal.

    The 123 figure for Battaash represents another career best and is the highest figure achieved over 5f this season. Lady Aurelia who won the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot returned a figure of 122 there and I decided to downgrade the figure for Marsha in the Nunthorpe to 120 after her run on Sunday. Bar Battaash’s below par effort last time out at York where he got stewed up in the preliminaries, the colt has a progressive profile having run figures of 109+, 115, 122+, 108 and 123+ in his 5 starts this season.
    Because he is a gelding it seems very likely that he will remain in training next season. I am hopeful that there might be still more to come.

    Like brother like sister?

    It has been just under a year since Churchill cemented his place as Champion Two-Year-Old with victory in the Dewhurst. Last weekend his sister Clemmie thrust herself to the top of the tree amongst the juvenile fillies with a decisive success in the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Sakes, writes Graeme Smith.


    Clemmie has long had a tall reputation and had won in Group 3 and Group 2 company since her defeat in the Albany; but it was only on Saturday that she produced the sort of performance we’d long been promised.

    With Different League and Treasuring ensuring a sound test, the Cheveley Park produced the strongest time of the day returning a speed figure of 115. Both historical standards and a line through the likeable runner-up Different League mirrored that figure and that put her above the mean from the last six runnings, albeit 1lb below the last two winners. Clemmie’s figure, as well as the other Irish horses to have run in the last week, was discussed with the Irish Two-year-old Handicapper Mark Bird but obviously these figures are still fluid until the end of the year.

    The exciting thing about Clemmie is that she is bred to stay a mile. Her ability to first match the speedy-Different League and then keep going as that one cried enough bode really well for her prospects from here. It seems a step up in trip at the Breeders’ Cup could well be next.

    The Juddmonte Middle Park looked to have more depth to it that the fillies’ race beforehand but it left a rather confusing picture with Beckford, Sioux Nation, Unfortunately and Sands of Mali all misfiring to varying degrees. Fleet Review’s much-improved performance in second came as something of a surprise but the July Stakes winner Cardsharp provided some much-needed backbone in third. WIth hindsight U S Navy Flag had signalled an improved performance last time for all he had been beaten in six of his eight starts before this race.

    A speed figure of 108 does not read well against Clemmie’s; but it is not a like-for-like comparison as, when sectionals are factored in, they paint a picture of a strongly-run Middle Park that became rather hard work in the finish. Both race standards and a line through Cardsharp’s best of 110 point to 117 for U S Navy Flag. While time will tell how well the form works out there is an argument that U S Navy Flag did creditably to stay in front having forced the pace throughout.


    With the Dewhurst on the horizon 118 is now the benchmark to beat and there are several European two-year-olds on 117. It is Expert Eye who sits on top at the minute courtesy of a further endorsement of his Vintage form from Mildenberger’s good run in the Royal Lodge.

    The Royal Lodge winner Roaring Lion ran to 112 and he looked at one stage as though he was capable of winning by further than the final margin of a neck. It is to be hoped that his tendency to hang left doesn’t inhibit his progress from here.

    Attraction’s son Elarqam has quickly made into a smart performer and he too earned a mark of 112 when taking the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket on Thursday in decisive fashion (speed figure of 98). Surely he’ll be over 1m before long and there’s a fair chance there’s more still to come from him. For what it’s worth it sounds as though he has Mark Johnston very excited!

    Juliet Capulet continued her progression when making the Group 2 breakthrough in the Shadwell Rockfel on Friday. She received a beautifully-judged ride from Frankie Dettori (speed figure of 98) and ran to a mark of 106 as she held Nyaleti off by a head. It’s also worth mentioning Gavota (102) who ran on into third starting her run from further back than the first two had. She had been most impressive in a couple of novices and I’d imagine she could make a better fist of things given another try in this grade.

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    Enable 128 makes more sense than the Timeform rating; taking into account the filly allowance it puts her into a rarefied category without forcing a rewrite of racing history. I'd love to see her build on it next season, she might well be capable of it. But for the time being there has not been enough quality in general this season to give her an ultra high rating in spite of her fantastic string of big race wins.

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    Cheltenham Open Meeting thoughts...

    The November Meeting | Handicapping Blog
    21 Nov 17



    GINGE WINS

    The Grade 3 Betvictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase is the first big early-closing 2m4f chase of the season and it was the usual fiercely competitive contest writes Mark Olley.

    Heavy rain from a couple of hours before the start of racing turned the ground very soft and the fact they went a decent pace in the conditions made this a true stamina test at the distance.

    Splash Of Ginge has been around the block a few times and, according to his trainer, had lost his confidence over fences last season. A switch back to hurdles seemed to do the trick and back on soft ground that he handles well, he battled on very bravely to gain a hard fought and well deserved win. His chase rating moves to 139 (+5) which was what his hurdle figure was going into this race. This is still some way below the 145 he was rated when last winning a chase, here at Cheltenham, back in 2015. He will reportedly be back for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap on December 16th.

    Starchitect was a gallant second. He did not jump the final two fences quite as well as Splash Of Ginge and that probably made the difference in the end. David Pipe’s gelding tackled several competitive handicaps last season when still a novice and things did not really go his way. His new rating of 148 (+4) matches his best figure achieved over hurdles and I would be surprised if there is not more to come from this second season chaser.

    Le Prezien lost his place going down the back straight and that left him with a lot to do. He made good headway after the third last but those exertions told late on as his run petered out in the final twenty yards. Like Starchitect, he is a relatively inexperienced second season chaser and his new rating of 152 (+2) moves him to the cusp of graded company (a rating of 152 in the Ryanair Chase would equate to 5th/6th in the past few seasons).

    Tully East caught the eye travelling very strongly but a mistake two out effectively ended his chance. He won the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Festival last season when the ground was considerably quicker that day. It would be no surprise to see him recapture that form back on quicker ground judged on the way he travelled here.

    CAMPBELL SOUPER

    Thomas Campbell continues to climb the staying hurdle tree after another authoritative success at Cheltenham, writes Martin Greenwood.

    Seemingly treading water at around two and half miles at the end of last season, Thomas Campbell has relished the step up to three miles and is now within hailing distance of the top stayers. The 10lb rise I gave him after the October meeting did not stop him from following up and he again travelled well most of the way on Saturday in the worsening conditions.

    Previous winner of the race and course specialist Anteros briefly made a fight of it but Thomas Campbell was ultimately well on top. Another 10lb has now been added which puts him on 158, with the potential to be even higher. He has an entry in the Betfair Stayers Handicap at Haydock this Saturday and being an early-closing affair means he can carry a 5lb penalty on top of his then entry mark of 148 and be 5lb well in.

    Twenty four hours earlier Henderson was also in the winner’s enclosure after On The Blind Side made it two from two in the 21f Hyde Novices’ Hurdle.

    A scorer at Aintree the previous month, he stepped up markedly on that effort to see off some useful sorts in decent enough style, looking better the further he went. Calett Mad was a very disappointing favourite and surely something was amiss; but that does not detract from the likeable impression made by On The Blind Side who is rated 145, a figure well up to the standard of this race.

    SHAKIRA LIGHTS UP TRIUMPH MARKET

    Apple’s Jade’s sister Apple’s Shakira was strongly touted on the run up to Saturday’s Grade Two Prestbury Hurdle, run in miserable conditions, writes David Dickinson.

    Usurping the hitherto top juvenile Gumball for favouritism in the minutes before the off, her backers would have been on very good terms with themselves from the moment she hit the front after the second last. That she was visually most impressive isn’t up for debate, more so the level of ability shown by the filly.

    Defi Du Seuil might have won this race in 2016 but looking back further this race has served up its fair share of red herrings in recent times. In this decade Golden Doyen has given a penalty and a beating to subsequent Triumph third Hargam, Royal Irish Hussar has beaten the subsequent Grade One Aintree winner Guitar Pete and even when Sam Winner beat Grandouet, the placings were reversed when they both made the frame. So, in short it is a little early in winter to be setting total store by juvenile results.

    Gumball came into this race rated 144. Using him to rate the race would make the winner something extremely special but there are reasons to think that he didn’t give his running. Firstly he made a particularly nasty mistake at the fourth flight, partially doing the splits. Secondly, Speedo Boy, 21 lengths behind him at Chepstow in receipt of seven pounds, got within eight and a bit lengths of him at level weights on Saturday. The 121 rated Eragon de Chanay, the French trained Et Georges (who I had a rating of 120 on pre-race) and Speedo Boy also rated 120 finished close together. Using them Apple’s Shakira has run a figure somewhere in the 140’s, quite some achievement for a filly so early in the season.

    By the conclusion of the meeting on Sunday, more evidence was there to suggest that staying wide on the hurdles track was advantageous. Apple’s Shakira had followed a path rather wider than Gumball’s and this added further weight to the feeling that the latter had probably run some way below his best.

    When walking the course before Sunday’s racing, the Chairman of the Stewards Panel spotted Wayne Hutchinson walking the track before his winning ride in the Greatwood. Oh to still be a journalist as it really begs the headline ‘Elgin’s pilot uses his marbles!!’

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    Xmas Update...

    Handicappers Blog | Festive Period
    02 Jan 18

    WHAT A FAUGHEEN MESS
    Champion Hurdle winner Buveur d’Air’s expected and comfortable win in the Grade One Unibet Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day could hardly have prepared us for the upheaval just three days later in the ante-post market for Cheltenham, writes David Dickinson.

    The small field event went pretty much as expected in that The New One proved his main rival. The form is hard to rave about, however, given the proximity of Mohaayed and Chesterfield at the line – neither with any pretentions of being genuine Grade One horses.

    So, with Buveur d’Air although fit and well not advancing his 169 rating, it was to Leopardstown that all eyes turned for the run of 2015 champion Faugheen. Here is where the script went off-piste as he fluffed his lines, pulling up after dropping back to last going to the penultimate flight and leaving stable mate Cilaos Emery to be denied by the ever improving Mick Jazz.

    In the immediate aftermath of this result the Champion Hurdle market took on the guise of a Whitehall farce. In the ensuing confusion, a horse who had finished last in a three mile chase the previous day briefly became second favourite for the Champion Hurdle. Something resembling sanity was resumed only once it was revealed that Faugheen’s career was not over as he happily appeared to be uninjured.

    Given the way that the first two at Leopardstown left the accident-prone but highly able Campeador in their wake, I do wonder if the demise of Faugheen has distracted us from a couple of very decent performances.


    If that race was tough to get a handle on then Saturday’s Tote-sponsored Mares Listed race at Taunton was impossible. This excellent innovation was being run for a sixth year and the field which featured four mares rated in the 130’s looked well up to scratch. However to see Maria’s Benefit win by 30 lengths despite being eased down was very much out of the ordinary.

    If judged through any of the other three 130+ horses in the race, then this is top class form. That is very hard to believe given that this only has Listed status and historically the winner rates in the high 130’s. The overall time compared with the handicap on the card won by Attest, suggests a rating in the 140’s but the split times make for very interesting reading.

    Maria’s Benefit was marginally slower to the second hurdle then Rio Bravo (who made the running in the handicap). By the time she jumped the same flight, then the third last, she was over six seconds faster than the handicap. This was a blistering burst, particularly in the back straight and she is clearly very good.

    I have come up with a figure of 152 for her performance, a rise of sixteen pounds. Anyone who tries to tell you that their (probably different) figure is the right one might be deluding themselves – this race is just about as difficult as handicapping gets.

    Her reported targets are the Mares race at Doncaster and then the Mares Novice at the Festival. My reservation about the latter would be based on Saturday’s run style. She went hard after the first three furlongs or so and was easing down the final half mile. Similar tactics in March would see her doing most of her hardest running uphill.

    MIGHT BITE NOW TOP CHASER

    At first sight the result of the 32Red King George VI Chase was slightly confusing because of the proximity of Double Shuffle (who went into the race rated 151) and, to a lesser extent, Tea For Two who was on 164. Even allowing for Might Bite idling I could not get him higher than 169 calling the three lengths to Tea For Two as 5lbs.

    This made him the lowest King George winner of the last five renewals a pound less than Thistlecrack last year and Long Run in 2012. I am comfortable with this given the apparently massive improvement achieved by Double Shuffle (now 166) and it will be interesting to see how he performs next time. My next thought was to compare Might Bite’s time with the time of the winner of the Kauto Star Chase. Black Corton I had on 155 before Boxing Day and for beating Elegant Escape (150), I kept him on the same rating.

    Might Bite ran the same course in a time 2.8 seconds faster and carried 3lb more than Black Corton. The time lapse is the equivalent of 11 lengths = 11lbs. + 3lbs =14. 155+14=169.

    Thus using Tea For Two as a guide, comparing Might Bite’s time with that of Black Corton and using the race standards, 169 appeared a sensible figure. I suspect he is capable of better and he will need to be as the Gold Cup is usually won by a 170+ performance.

    Meanwhile I have dropped Bristol de Mai back from 173 to 167. Because of the nature of the ground at Haydock I always had some doubt about the validity of his 173 and I now cannot have him superior to Might Bite.

    I did find it interesting that in the Racing Post earlier this week, they still have Bristol de Mai as their top jumping horse of 2017 on 185!

    MONEY SPINNER

    With the prominent players from the 2017 Stayers’ Hurdle falling by the wayside, northern challenger Sam Spinner put himself to the forefront for the 2018 version with a comprehensive success in the JLT Reve de Sivola Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot, writes Martin Greenwood.

    Sam Spinner has been upped in distance with each start this season and shows better form every time. Impressive when careering home in a competitive handicap at Haydock on his penultimate start, this was an even more taking performance in some ways though the winning margin was nowhere near as big.

    Taking up his now customary position at the ahead of affairs, Sam Spinner looked to be going comfortably all the way round and had shaken off everything bar the equally strong travelling L’Ami Serge (still 159) turning in. Not for the first time (and presumably not for the last time either) the latter found absolutely nothing for pressure while the winner looked to have plenty left in the tank.

    Five-year standards for this race place this performance anywhere between 153 and 162 with a median and average of those standards in the mid to high 150s. Given the pre-race ratings I have decided to match the 162 suggested as the peak but with an extra 2lb added for style. This makes his 164 the best staying hurdle performance of the season so far.

    Further back in the field, both Unowhatimeanharry (now 163) and Lil Rockerfeller (157), second and third in last season’s Stayers, continue to underperform, while current champion Nichols Canyon sadly lost his life after falling at Punchestown.

    The main beneficiary at Punchestown was Apple’s Jade who was stepped up to three miles for the first time and made it five wins on the spin. She just got the best of a titanic tussle with pacesetter Supasundae who finished much closer than when the pair met over twenty furlongs at Fairyhouse earlier in December. That had been Supassundae’s first run of the season and with the return to the longer distance clearly suiting, he at least matched the 160 he performed to when to when second to Yanworth at Aintree last April.

    Obviously with Apple’s Jade receiving the 7lb mares’ allowance, Supasundae comes out as comfortably the best horse in the race even though a case can be made that the Fairyhouse win of Apple’s Jade was an even better effort.

    Given that the 7lb allowance will, of course, be also available at Cheltenham there is very little to choose between Apple’s Jade and Sam Spinner at the moment. The former, though, will undoubtedly also have the Mares Hurdle in her sights.

    Later in the week there was a small but select field for the Betfred Challow Hurdle at Newbury. The front pair of Poetic Rhythm and the tail-flashing Mulcahys Hill look up to standard. The race didn’t particularly make for great viewing however, as several were treading water miles from home in what looked very holding conditions. Mulcahys Hill made a valiant attempt from the front but was slowly but surely overhauled by Poetic Rhythm who has risen by a single pound to 148.
    Last edited by Perpetual; 2nd January 2018 at 6:15 PM.

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    Belated update...

    Cheltenham Prospects 2018 | Handicappers Blog
    13 Feb 18

    ARKLE WINNERS PAST AND FUTURE?

    Saturday saw key trials for the championship 2m chase races at the upcoming Cheltenham festival with the Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase at Newbury and the Betway Kingmaker Novices Chase at Warwick. Although each race only had a small field, writes Chris Nash, each produced a winner likely to play a significant role in their races next month.

    The Game Spirit saw the seasonal return of Altior, winner of the 2017 Arkle Trophy. We rated him 170 at the end of last season which made him the joint leading novice chaser of the year together with Thistlecrack. Altior resumed where he left off and maintained his unbeaten record over obstacles with an authoritative display.

    With only three runners lining up at Newbury it is difficult to know exactly what the form is worth. In handing a comfortable four-length beating to Politologue it is safe to assume that Altior returned with his ability intact. I decided to rate his effort at 164+ and, with him value for plenty more than his bare margin of victory, his official rating of 170 will remain in place. I dropped Politologue from a mark of 165 to 163 after this effort mainly because the Tingle Creek form at Sandown has not worked out too well and it was from this race that he took his mark of 165.

    Altior is the current favourite for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Chief amongst his rivals will be Min, who has a rating of 167, and also Politologue. I imagine that last year’s winner, Special Tiara, will also line up – he ran to a figure of 167 last year but has not matched that so far this season. It will also be interesting to see for which race last year’s runner-up, Fox Norton, goes. He has a mark of 168 but also has an entry in the Ryanair chase. The possible participation of Douvan also adds to the interest. He finished last season rated 174 but has not been seen since getting beaten at Cheltenham last year.

    The Kingmaker produced a decisive winner in Saint Calvados. He was having only his third run over fences and registered his third win. He had been successful in novice handicap chases at Newbury off marks of 143 and 147 and lined up at Warwick rated 154. He is a bold-jumping front-runner. Not only did he make all but he barely touched a twig on his way round. The form of the race is not the easiest to level with only four horses and wide margins between them; but I think it is safe to say that Saint Calvados progressed again and recorded another career-best figure.

    I have decided to rate him 160 after this race which puts him amongst the leading 2m novice chasers of this season. The Irish trained Footpad has a mark of 162 and leads the rankings currently but Sceau Royal on 159, Petit Mouchoir on 157 and Brain Power on 156 are also valid contenders. The Arkle on day one of Cheltenham is shaping up to be quite some race.

    RETURN OF THE NATIVE

    The Grade 2 Betfair Denman Chase had just three runners for the second successive year and it was won by Native River for the second successive year. This confirmed that Native River is fit and well after nearly a year off, says Mark Olley. But with conditions in his favour and against a probable non-stayer in Cloudy Dream we did not learn much else.

    Native River came into the race with an official rating of 166 which was achieved when he was an excellent third to Sizing John is last season’s Gold Cup. The Newbury race was not an easy one to assess due to the above couple of points. However the time was 7.4 seconds faster than Indy Five (new rating of 136) winning the novice handicap chase just over two hours later and Native River was carrying 17lbs more; so that was decent. Historical standards for the race suggest a figure in the low 160’s.

    Factoring in that information I have his performance figure for this race in the 161 to 166 range. Figures on the BHA website will show 166, but it is largely academic at this stage as I am not planning to change his rating. We will hopefully get a better guide to where he currently stands when he contests next month’s Cheltenham Gold Cup.

    Cloudy Dream travelled strongly through the race and was probably going best as they approached two out, but he didn’t get home anywhere near as well as Native River. He ran a similar race behind Definitly Red at Aintree the time before and a return to 2m4f looks in order. His rating drops 1lb to 157, but that is due to the level of the Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree in October being altered at the Anglo-Irish meeting held last week.

    KALASHNIKOV HAS FESTIVAL IN HIS SIGHTS

    On an informative day of Festival clues it was fitting that the day’s big betting race, the Betfair Hurdle, provided a serious Cheltenham pointer, writes David Dickinson.

    The open nature of the betting suggested a tight contest but, after the rain throughout the day got into the ground, the frenetic nature of the gallop ensured that was not the case. To say they finished slowly is something of an understatement. The winner Kalashnikov’s time from the third last to the line is around 25 lengths slower than the eased down Whatswrongwithyou achieved in the opening novice hurdle.


    So why did the pace end up being so uneven? There were plenty of horses wanting to race prominently. The keen-racing Jenkins, Misterton and Remiluc set the tone and the likes of Knocknanuss and Coeur Blimey could not quite lay up with the leaders. At the first flight in the back straight Silver Streak and his jockey parted company. The loose horse was soon racing enthusiastically, eventually leading the field home. As he passed Jenkins and company jumping the last in the back straight, an over-zealous pace was further increased. At this point, still well over a minute from home, the majority of the field were flat out.

    I took the view watching the race that it became a stamina test which the majority failed in extreme circumstances.

    It was interesting hearing Kalashnikov’s connections immediately nominate the 2m Sky Bet Supreme as their Festival target. Given that his stamina was what won him this race they might also consider the 2m5f Ballymore Novice as playing more to that strength.

    The fact that Kalashnikov and Bleu Et Rouge were able to put clear daylight between themselves and the big field has seen their marks go up by thirteen and eight pounds respectively. Kalashnikov’s sole defeat came in the Grade One Tolworth and it has been well reported that soft ground is not ideal for him. He is very clearly an exciting prospect, wherever he heads come March.

    The previous Sunday saw a Taunton handicap win for the admirable Unison. Jeremy Scott’s horse had previous finished third of four to The New One and Ch’tibello in Haydock’s Champion Hurdle Trial. That day he finished eleven lengths behind the 21lb higher rated runner up and beat the higher rated Clyde into fourth place. So did I raise his mark for that? Answer, no. He came into that race with solid handicap form and Clyde put in a notably poor round of jumping. Trying to get the message across to connections that supporting small field conditions races can often be in their best interests is hard indeed; but wins for the likes of Unison won’t do any harm.

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    The Cheltenham Festival 2018 | Handicappers Blog
    20 Mar 18

    MELON PIPPED

    In extending his unbeaten run to ten and defending his Unibet Champion Hurdle crown, Buveur d’Air demonstrated his willingness to battle, writes David Dickinson.

    Through the winter this had shaped more and more like a one horse race but that wasn’t the case as, despite the lack lustre run of Faugheen, both Melon and Mick Jazz threatened to lower his colours. I have rated his performance a pound below the level he achieved last year at 166. The irony of this is, that for a dual Champion Hurdle winner his standout performance remains last year’s 169 figure in the Betway Aintree Hurdle over half a mile further and this remains his official rating.

    It was the best performance of Melon’s career and I now have him on 165 for losing out but in the bravest fashion by only a neck.


    The Festival kicked off with the Sky Bet Supreme and a rare reverse for Ireland when Getabird was blown away by old adversaries Summerville Boy and Kalashnikov, first and second in the 32Red Tolworth at Sandown in January. Given the winner’s jumping errors over the final flights I believe that the winning margin of four lengths in the Sandown race is a better guide as to their relative merits and now have them rated 156 and 152 respectively

    The Grade 2 Trull House Stud Dawn Run Novice Hurdle produced the most visually impressive winner of the week in Laurina but this was a race in which they went too fast mid race.

    I had blogged about my doubts that Maria’s Benefit would be suited by Cheltenham and so it proved, especially as she did not get an easy lead. From turning in, the field was lengths slower than either of the opening races on the Friday. I have moved Laurinar up to a rating of 152 but I do remember that the inaugural running of this race was won in a similar fashion by Limini. She then started a hot favourite for the open Novice at Aintree only to be no match for Buveur d’Air and Petit Mouchoir. My reservation this time around is that this became a stamina test and I doubt that any of the first three home will turn out to be best at two miles.

    The clock that told one tale in that Mares’ race it told another in the JCB Triumph Hurdle. On paper, with the smallest field since 1965, this looked a below par renewal. That assertion is very much not supported by the stopwatch. Not only was the race run faster than the following Randox Health County Hurdle but also it is faster run from the second last flight. Whilst accepting that Apple’s Shakira (who got a bit worked up in the preliminaries) and Redicean (who probably wouldn’t want the ground this testing) were disappointing, the Irish raiders were a revelation. I have rated Farclas 157 in victory and, on the clock, I could have gone higher still.

    As for the County Hurdle itself, I have blogged this winter about the way we deal with conditions races. Flying Tiger ran here off 140, despite finishing on the heels of Elgin and Call Me Lord in Wincanton’s Betway Kingwell Hurdle. This was latched on to in the betting market but, in the aftermath, connections felt that even this trip is beyond him on such ground.

    Had those Flying Tiger supporters only turned their eyes back to Kempton’s Unibet Christmas Hurdle their wallets might be in a better state. In that race Buveur d‘Air 169, beat The New One (then on 163) with less than four lengths back to Mohaayed and then Chesterfield, who arrived rated 139 and 143. So mathematically I could have defended rises of at least a stone for each. My response? I left Mohaayed and dropped Chesterfield by three to 140, below the mark from which won last year’s Scottish Champion Hurdle.


    ALTIOR THE CHAMPION

    The feature race on day two of the Festival was the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase run over two miles. I thought the race was run at an honest pace, writes Chris Nash, and it looked a very fair test at the trip. Altior started the even-money favourite and duly took the prize but only after looking in a spot of bother after three fences out when he appeared to get outpaced and needed niggling along.


    He came good however to be upsides Min at the last before powering clear up the run in. He produced a performance which probably said more about his stamina than his speed. Altior went to post unbeaten in his twelve previous races over obstacles and rated 170. He handed out a seven lengths beating to Min who arrived rated 167 on the back of a career best effort last time out. There were a further eleven lengths back to God’s Own in third who arrived here rated 158.

    I have decided to advance Min by 1lb to a mark of 168 which has Altior running to 175 and God’s Own running to 157. The form looks fairly secure and I am quite happy for this to rate a career best for Altior. There is an argument to suggest that the way he was pulling away at the line he could be rated a pound or two higher but I’m happy with a figure of 175 for now. We will see how this form works out and if he can better this effort before the season’s end. In an historical context his winning figure for this race has only been surpassed by Sprinter Sacre (188), Master Minded (186), Moscow Flyer (180) and Sizing Europe (177) this century.

    The two mile novice chasers had their championship race on day 1 in the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy. A small but select field went to post – there were only five runners but amongst them were four of the five highest rated novice chasers seen over the trip this season.


    This was a strongly run race and almost certainly too strongly run with both Petit Mouchoir and Saint Calvados seemingly intent on making the running. They blitzed along in front and raced clear of the others before, unsurprisingly, paying the price for their early enthusiasm. Victory went to Footpad who arrived as the highest rated runner in the field (162) and started as the 5/6 favourite. He let the leaders get on with it and sat a very respectful distance off them but picked them up quite readily to lead on the home turn and ended up skipping away from them to win pretty much as he pleased. He crossed the line fourteen lengths ahead of Brain Power (156 pre-race) with Petit Mouchoir (157 pre-race) a further three-quarters of a length away in 3rd.

    Footpad’s performance was visually most impressive but from a form point of view that must be tempered by the way the race was run and the small field size. I decided to give him a figure of 166 for this which has Brain Power running to 152 and Petit Mouchoir running to 151+. Brain Power raced in last and stayed on up the hill to pick up the pieces from his toiling rivals. Petit Mouchoir was probably the second best horse on the day, given his early exertions, and I’m quite happy to leave him with his rating of 157 and, therefore, ahead of Brain Power who I have trimmed to 155.

    The disappointment of the race was Saint Calvados who arrived with a mark of 160 (our second highest rated) but seemingly didn’t enjoy being taken on for the lead and was beaten a long way from home. I have lowered his rating to 158. In an historical context this winning figure has only been surpassed by Sprinter Sacre (169) and Un De Sceaux (168) this century and Altior ran to 165 when winning this race in 2017.

    RUSSELL AT HIS BEST

    The Grade 1 Ryanair Chase was a fascinating race to watch, notably the masterful jockeyship of Davy Russell on winner Balko Des Flos says Mark Olley.

    Last year’s winner Un De Sceaux raced in almost exactly the same style as twelve months ago. He was keen and pulled his way into the lead at the fifth fence from where he set a strong pace. At the third last, just when Paul Townend must have been hoping to get a slight breather into him, Davy Russell kicked into the lead on Balko Des Flos and went for home ensuring this race was a real stamina test for the distance and that Un De Sceaux had nothing left for the end of the race. Both horses finished relatively slowly, understandable considering the tactics, but Balko Des Flos had this won from some way out.

    After consultation with Irish handicapper Andrew Shaw, we have agreed a rating of 169 for Balko Des Flos (up 3lb from a pre-race 166). This is a shade below the race standard of 170, is a pound higher than Un De Sceaux achieved in winning the race last season and matches the 169 of Uxizandre in 2015.

    This leaves Waiting Patiently heading the 2m4f Anglo-Irish rankings on a figure of 170 but hopefully we will see both of them again before the season ends.


    The JLT Golden Miller Novices’ Chase was run more steadily than the Ryanair and that resulted in Shattered Love finishing the race in a stronger fashion. In her preceding two races she won a Grade 2 novice at Cork over 2m and a Grade 1 novice at Leopardstown over 3m, so she is clearly very versatile trip wise.

    As a mare she received a 7lb weight allowance from the geldings, so that needs to be added back onto her new rating of 153 (up 9lb from a pre-race 144) if it is to be compared to previous winners like Yorkhill (161) last year and Black Hercules (159) in 2016.

    Five year old Terrefort continues to progress. He was rated 151 after his win in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles in February and is up another 2lb to 153. Benatar ran an excellent race in third, he kept on very strongly considering how keenly he raced early on and, if suffering no ill effects from the injury he sustained here, must win more races.

    BLOOM SHINES BRIGHT-ON PENHILL


    For those who don’t know, Tony Bloom is the main man behind Brighton & Hove Albion’s premiership status, writes Martin Greenwood. Tony obviously likes his horses as well, and with Penhill he has enjoyed Cheltenham Festival success for the second year on the trot.

    The amazing thing is that Penhill as only had one run in between these successes and that was way back in April at Punchestown. Willie Mullins is inundated with plaudits on a monthly basis but surely this ranks as one of the greater achievements.

    Obviously Penhill was unexposed having stepped straight out of novice company but it was hard to tell as he cruised through the race in the Stayers hurdle, after favourite and confirmed front runner Sam Spinner had taken them along at no more than a so-so gallop and jumping none too fluently. To be fair Penhill wasn’t the only one who had travelled strongly throughout and there were a host of chances turning in. Eventually the field began to spread out a little by the time they approached the last, and it came down to a shootout between Penhill and Supasundae (who had also scored at Cheltenham in 2017), with the former outstaying the latter by two lengths.

    Robbie Power, the rider of Supasundae, suggested the overnight rain put paid to his chances but it’s hard to argue that his mount hasn’t run somewhere near to his pre-race 164, though of course there is a case that Supasundae would ideally be suited by a slightly less test, especially around Cheltenham. Rating the race is tricky since the field wasn’t stretched out at the finish due to the moderate pace.

    It will rate one of the lower versions in recent times, along the lines of Solwhit in 2013 and Cole Harden in 2015. Certainly the time comparison with the Pertemps is worthless such was the pedestrian gallop in the later race, while the standards, unsurprisingly given the bunched field, are suggesting an average and median only in the low 160s. Allied to this the fact that several lower rated horses are close up and almost certainly flattered means it is impossible to be positive about the ‘bare’ form. Short term, and hoping both Aintree and Punchestown give me a much stronger direction, I have increased Penhill to 164, the same mark as both Supasundae and Sam Spinner. The last named is probably worth another chance when he makes it a proper test of stamina.

    Moving on to the novice races in my division, the better of the two races appears to be Samcro’s success in the Ballymore Baring Novices’ Hurdle. With only three of the fourteen runners in single figures in the betting it suggested a race lacking strength in depth but the result suggests the first six home were above the norm compared to recent renewals. Samcro (155), Black Op and Next Destination (both 150) were already of a standard befitting such a race going in and they duly filled the first three places.


    Samcro had looked a monster in Ireland and he certainly didn’t do anything to suggest he is anything other than a very smart hurdler/future chaser in the making. Smoothly getting in contention, Samcro quickly put the race to bed and then seemed to doss in front but still had nearly three lengths to spare over Black Op (now 152), who had made a horlicks of the last.

    I am in no doubt that Samcro had more in the tank and have given him an extra two pounds for the ‘style’ of the win. Even that could undercook him and there is plenty more to come down the line. Recent race standards point to low 150s for the winner but Samcro’s 157 puts him on a par with The New One’s performance in this race in 2013. It would be no surprise to me if Samcro doesn’t surpass that figure very soon.

    Nicky Henderson seemed to hold the aces in the three mile Albert Bartlett Spa Novices’ Hurdle on Friday with all four of his runners in with some sort of chance, especially Santini and Chef des Obeaux. The latter ran abysmally and was never in contention. He wasn’t on his own, though, with numerous horses never getting involved and performing way below the form they had been showing leading up to the Festival.

    The few prominent racers seemed to go hard enough in the conditions and paid the price although Fabulous Saga deserves great credit given he was still leading approaching the last. By that time 33/1-shot Kilbricken Storm had taken over the lead and going after the leader earlier than the rest paid the ultimate dividend because none of the closing bunch could lay a glove on him. We can only wonder what would have happened had they closed the gap earlier.

    An average winner usually comes out high 140s to low 150s, and I have decided on 149 for Kilbricken Storm. Ok Corral (146), Ballyward (144) and Robin Waters (140) have also notched personal bests, albeit only marginally, while Santini deserves another chance to confirm his pre-race 150 given how Black Op (second to Santini last time) performed earlier in the week.

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