The thoughts of the handicappers.

[Perpetual]

A KING GEORGE CRACKER / 28 JUL 15

The King George undoubtedly took on a different complexion when the Derby winner was pulled out on the morning of the race due to softening ground, but a driving finish made for an incredible spectacle, with the added spice of the protagonists’ previous from the Royal meeting.

FIRST PAST THE POST


The highlight of last week’s racing was the Group 1 Qipco King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, writes Mark Olley. All the talk pre-race was around the participation or not of Derby/Eclipse winner Golden Horn and I would be lying if I said I wasn’t a little gutted, albeit far from surprised, when the announcement finally came that he would not run. However, any anticlimactic thoughts were swiftly put to one side by the race itself as Postponed and Eagle Top fought out a thriller.

Romsdal set a really strong pace on ground that as it turned out was probably no slower than good/soft (based on times). Andrea Atzeni was poised to take over on Postponed, duly did so two furlongs out and quickly committed for home. Eagle Top made up a lot of ground, forced his head in front close home, but was just beaten by the narrowest margins. Maybe the amount of ground that Eagle Top had to make up left him vulnerable to being repassed by Postponed, but the margins were so small it is hard to be critical.

The final time was just over five seconds faster than the concluding handicap, run over the same course and distance. I wouldn’t get too carried away by that as the handicap was only a four-runner affair, but my hand times suggest Duretto covered the final furlong about 0.7 seconds faster than Postponed which shows how comparatively slowly they were finishing in the King George due to the strong early pace.

As for ratings, I have Romsdal returning to the 115 he recorded when third in the Derby and second in the St Leger last season. This is someway short of the standard figures we have for the King George and that applies to all finishers. Eagle Top and Postponed had only a nose between them in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes over this course and distance at the Royal meeting and with the same margin separating them here, but the other way round, they have new figures of 122 (Postponed) and 121 (Eagle Top).

From a historical point of view Postponed’s figure of 122 is the lowest in the last ten years, just below the fillies Taghrooda and Danedream (123). Harbinger’s 135 back in 2010 is the standout rating.

HEAVEN SENT


It’s not often a horse proves tough and durable enough to win more than one or two major handicaps, and Heaven’s Guest gave his connections a huge amount to cheer when lifting his fourth valuable prize in Ascot’s Gigaset International on Saturday, writes Graeme Smith.
It’s not as if Richard Fahey’s five-year-old is kept fresh for his forays into battle and his record is all the more impressive when you throw in first-four finishes in two Ayr Gold Cups, York’s Charity Sprint, last year’s International and last month’s Bunbury Cup.

Saturday’s effort represented a career-best, earning a 5lb rise to 108 with an eventually-hard-fought defeat of Balty Boys – Heaven’s Guest was a good two lengths clear through the penultimate furlong before being closed down only late.

Balty Boys made it a one-two for Yorkshire stables and put a poor effort in the John Smith’s Cup firmly behind him as he belatedly confirmed the promise of his fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup, where he’d run out a clear-cut winner of the race in the stand-side group.

Balty Boys’ 112-performance (up 4lb) earns him a place in the end-of-season European Thoroughbred Rankings but it wasn’t the strongest 7f performance I dealt with last week. That honour goes to Home of The Brave, who completed a memorable pattern-race double for Hugo Palmer on the Curragh following on from Covert Love’s Irish Oaks success, with an all-the-way win in the Group 3 Minstrel Stakes.

I’d had my suspicions for a while that his Free Handicap success could be worth a fair bit more than I’d rated it – the form had been well endorsed by Tupi – but with little else doing much positive work for it, including Home of The Brave himself in a couple of Group 1 attempts at either side of 7f, he’d been stuck on 107. Not any more – I’ve been marginally more positive than the Irish handicapper (our final level with be agreed on at the end of the season) and have raised Home of The Brave’s rating to 116 for his three-and-a-half-length hammering of Gordon Lord Byron.

Incidentally, the Free Handicap had been notable at the time for the flop of the strong 2000 Guineas fancy Faydhan, but his effort’s looking a fair bit better now with the pair who beat him both rated in the mid-110s, acknowledging the disappointing Glenalmond finished just behind in fourth.

One more winning performance worthy of a mention from the 7f division last week came from Kevin Ryan’s Salateen in a competitive-looking handicap at York on Saturday. The chestnut son of Dutch Art was well placed to strike off a modest gallop but was impressive nevertheless in quickly putting three lengths between himself and his rivals two furlongs out and earned himself an 8lb rise to 107. He’d been third to Elm Park in the Royal Lodge last year and could well on the way back to pattern company judged by his rider’s comments in the post-race interview.

Finally, the form of the fillies’ handicap from Newmarket’s July Festival is already proving strong and there could well be more than just the winner, Spangled, with an eye on pattern company later in the summer. The runner-up Muffri’ha posted a decisive success in a 0-90 classified race at Lingfield last week, and this week the fourth-placed Alfajer went down by only a neck to a rival who was turning out quickly before a 4lb rise took effect in another well-contested fillies’ handicap at Doncaster, arguably from a disadvantaged position, too. I’ve revisited the level of the Newmarket race and raised it 2lb. The proximity of some of the also-rans suggests the race as a whole may not go much higher, but there are a few unexposed fillies in there and this is already looking a strong piece of form in their fledgling careers.

[Perpetual]

THE GOODWOOD FESTIVAL / 04 AUG 15


A slight rebrand brought with it much increased prize money and there was plenty of depth amongst the pattern races at Goodwood as well as the handicaps. Europe’s leading miler got the job done in the mid-week highlight that is the Sussex Stakes, and Muthmir staked his claim for top honours in a very competitive Group 2 dash, giving weight all round as he did.

NOT QUITE A SOLOW


Whilst it was disappointing that the best three-year-old miler in Europe, Gleneagles, couldn’t take his place in the Qatar Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on Wednesday, the best older miler, Solow, continued his impressive winning streak with his eighth straight success and his 11^th in his last 12 starts, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

He appears to be a horse that does no more than necessary and, as in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, he was more workmanlike than spectacular in the way he triumphed. With a pre-race rating of 124, based on his success in the Dubai Duty Free at Meydan, he went in to the Goodwood race with 3lb and more in hand of his rivals but, in my book, only needed to run to 119+ to win.

Arod has been one of the finds of the miling division this year and he once again set out to dictate from the front. I have him performing right up to his pre-race mark of 118 and using any of the fourth to eighth placed finishers as a guide to the level could have him improving on that, but the “problem” horse of the race and the one that suggests a conservative figure is the third-placed Gabrial.

The winner of the Lincoln Handicap off 100 back in late March, Richard Fahey’s six-year-old looks well exposed and amongst his six winless efforts subsequently are three defeats off 106 in handicap company; he touched the giddy heights of 111 a couple of years ago but it is hard to think (certainly in the short term) this was anything other than a lifetime best. He didn’t just beat one or two higher rated rivals, he beat five of them rated 116, 119, 121, 116 and 112. As such I will give him the benefit of the doubt for the time being and have raised him to the 113 I believe he ran to.

For the second race in a row Night of Thunder was below his best and was beaten almost exactly the same distance by Solow as he had been in the Queen Anne. I have dropped him from his pre-race mark of 121 to the 119 I believe he ran in winning the Lockinge at Newbury on his reappearance. With subsequent performances of 112 and 109 he now has a little to prove at the highest level.

MUTHMIR RISES TO THE OCCASION


Plenty of the usual suspects from the sprinting division lined up in the Group 2 Qatar King George Stakes at Goodwood, with a trebling of the prize money compared to last year certainly no disincentive to do so, and the form has a very solid look to it, writes Adam Barnes.
In defying a 4lb penalty to see off Take Cover – winner of this last year – and the Prix de l’Abbaye winner Move In Time, Muthmir put up a very smart performance and his rating rises from 112 to 116. Take Cover (111) returns to a figure close to his peak, with Move In Time, who slightly conceded first run to the first two after switching and challenging more towards the centre of the track, running a few pounds below his pre-race 113 rating, but remaining on that figure. While true that a low draw and/or finishing off towards the far side was no bad thing – at least in part courtesy of Justineo from stall two setting a strong pace – it remains the case that the ‘right’ sort of horses came to the fore and the form should prove sound.

Muthmir, as with plenty of his rivals here, is likely to be seen in the Group 1 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes at York next, and he’ll hold strong form claims on the back of this.

As with the King George, the finish of a typically competitive Qatar Stewards’ Cup mostly involved horses drawn low/racing on the far side – third-placed Rivellino was the only one of the first eight to race near side – but once again the winner looked a most worthy one.

Magical Memory was the sole three-year-old in this year’s line-up and was 3lb ‘well in’ under his penalty for a commanding success at Newmarket three weeks previously, so clearly had plenty going for him beforehand. In defying a mark of 102, showing a taking turn of foot to seal matters and his rider able to take things slightly easy late on, he confirmed himself a sprinter to follow and it would be no surprise to see him tackle listed or even Group company sooner rather than later.

TOORMORE TOUGHS IT OUT


The two 7f pattern races at Goodwood also benefited from large increases in prize money and attracted strong fields as a result, writes Graeme Smith.
As things turned out The Group 2 Qatar Lennox Stakes proved only a shade above standard in terms of form on the day, with a gallop that wasn’t quite end-to-end, at a trip that’s probably a minimum for both, rather preventing the market leaders from asserting their true superiority.

Toormore made the most of his good position in front, but still came up some 4lb shy of his season’s best from the Lockinge. Dutch Connection looked inconvenienced even more by the speed test, appearing to get caught out when Toormore first kicked and doing his best work at the finish. He came up some 4lb shy of his 116 from the Prix Jean Prat and 1lb off his Jersey Stakes form.

Safety Check did quite well under his Group 2 penalty in third, looking well equipped for the test at hand but starting from a less advantageous position that many back in the field.

It was a similar case in the Group 3 l’Ormarins Queens Plate Oak Tree Stakes, with the first three in the market all failing to show their best. It wasn’t the easiest race to level with the French-trained Amy Eria improving significantly however you view it, but various standards and a look at the relativities between third and fourth helped me arrive at a winning figure of 108, although that will need to be monitored.

Osaila ran well under her 3lb penalty in second, but she’s probably more of a miler and came up 3lb shy of her Sandringham-winning form at 110.

I also felt a bold ride on the also-penalised New Providence possibly left her short for the finish, and have her running 2lb off the 107 she’d produced when winning the Summer Stakes over 6f at York. That level meant the improving Montalcino achieved a figure of 104 as she stuck on from the back, and she’ll be identically matched with New Providence should the pair meet again on these terms.

SUPER SHALAA


Goodwood’s festival has three Group races for two-year-olds and the stand-out performance of the week came from Shalaa in the Qatar Richmond Stakes, writes Matthew Tester.
Shalaa had won the July Stakes so had to give every other runner 3lb as a penalty. He had made a huge impression at Newmarket with his high cruising speed. Every other horse had been off the bit for at least a furlong before his jockey even shook the reins at him. Here it looked exactly the same with Shalaa well in control all the way.

Two other horses ran in both races. Steady Pace had been beaten a length at Newmarket and Elronaq three lengths; and each of them were 3lb better off with the winner, but Shalaa beat them more easily – a 9lb better beating in each case.

My figure for Shalaa at this stage is 120. That makes it the best Richmond-winning performance of the last twenty-five – better than winners like Ivawood and Harbour Watch in recent years, better than Daggers Drawn, First Trump and Sri Pekan for older readers.

It already makes him better than our champion two-year-old of last year so this was quite some performance. I suspect that his best runs will come as a juvenile; and I hope that he will not always drift left late in his races. But it was a great performance and he is one to enjoy whilst his light shines so brightly.

The Qatar Molecomb Stakes winner was Kachy who I have rated 106. His was a smooth win but King of Rooks in second is clearly not showing the form he had when so impressive in the National Stakes in May. Judging by the big swerve under pressure here, I suspect that something must be troubling him. I hope that they can get him back to his best soon.

The Qatar Vintage Stakes was not a vintage renewal.

I was very surprised to see Palawan finish third as none of his previous form had been close to this level. I have moved him up from 90 to 105 in the ratings. But that still makes Galileo Gold only 107 for winning trainer Hugo Palmer and this is very much on the low side for the race. My strong impression was that Birchwood was coming with a winning run when he has badly hampered in the final furlong. He counts as a most unlucky loser in my book but the gods have been smiling recently on Hugo with his first classic winner, his wedding and now this improving Group 2 winner.

[Aughex]

I like how Paul Smith yesterday on ATR made the point of 3yo's not being Greats because they always have to receive weight. Shalaa is a very good 2yo but to reach greatness and follow Frankel's footsteps he'll have to make it to 3 in same shape and then give weight away at 4 in order to reach his full potential. I like to see this distinction made more often and force owners/breeders to reconsider early retiring their horses after they won couple of group races as 3yo's.

[EC1]

I like how Paul Smith yesterday on ATR made the point of 3yo's not being Greats because they always have to receive weight. Shalaa is a very good 2yo but to reach greatness and follow Frankel's footsteps he'll have to make it to 3 in same shape and then give weight away at 4 in order to reach his full potential. I like to see this distinction made more often and force owners/breeders to reconsider early retiring their horses after they won couple of group races as 3yo's.

the problem with his richmond stakes roll of honour..and saying shalaa is better than them..is that the roll of honour is hardly breathtaking to start with

I'm not saying Shalaa isn't decent..buts its a 2yo and we all know like you mention that getting to be a 3yo and showing the average improvement needed to show that level at 3 are two different things.

2yo ratings are fine..but there is always that unkonown of how much more real maturity is there to come

[Perpetual]

YORKSHIRE’S FINEST / 25 AUG 15


The Juddmonte clash we’d all dreamed of might not have materialised but the Welcome to Yorkshire Ebor Festival made for an enthralling week of top-class racing nonetheless. It’s not just the pattern races that will live long in the memory and our team run through some of their highlights and noteworthy performances, starting with a Group 1 breakthrough for the northern-based Michael Dods and Paul Mulrennan.

ANGEL DELIGHT


The feature race on the Friday of the Ebor meeting was the Group 1 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes run over 5f, writesChris Nash. The race attracted just about all the established 5f pattern horses in Europe with the added attraction of the American-trained juvenile filly Acapulco, who’d been so impressive when winning the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. The pace was solid and matters were very cleanly run.

The race produced a really impressive winner in the four-year-old filly Mecca’s Angel, who was having just her 14th career run and her first in Group 1 company. She raced handily down the centre of the course and got by the trailblazing Acapulco well inside the final furlong to win pulling clear by two lengths.

Acapulco had taken the field along towards the far side of the track and gave a really bold show, establishing a significant gap at the 1f pole, and although she couldn’t quite see it out she still finished two lengths and upwards clear of the rest. The form of her win in the Queen Mary was given a significant boost earlier in the week when Besharah landed the Group 2 Lowther impressively and earned a rating of 114. The next four home in the Nunthorpe also boasted solid form – Mattmu (third) was a Group 3 winner last time out, Sole Power (fourth) had won the Nunthorpe last year, Goldream (fifth) had won the King’s Stand and Muthmir (sixth) won the Group 2 King George at Goodwood.

That suggests to me that the form is really strong and with the margins between the placed horses it’s difficult to draw any other conclusion than this was a top-class performance by the winner. I settled on a figure of 120 for Mecca’s Angel and 115 for Acapulco. Mattmu arrived rated 115 and this assessment of the race has him running to 111 – a little below his best, though it’s likely he’s better suited by 6f. The Irish-trained Sole Power arrived rated 118 which is the figure he recorded in winning a Group 1 in Dubai in March. His three runs since then have all been slightly lower and this was similar at 110. His revised rating will be decided by the Irish handicappers. Goldream ran to 109 here and I left him unchanged on 113 as the King’s Stand form looks sound, but Muthmir (ran to 106) was dropped back to 115 from 116 as the King George form failed to work out in this race. In understanding the figures put on this race it has to be remembered that the first two both received a 3lb fillies’ allowance, though the rider of Acapulco returned 1lb heavy.

Some of these might show up in the Group 1 Sprint Cup over 6f at Haydock in early September but the next likely rematch for these horses over 5f is the Abbaye at Longchamp on Arc day in early October. Mecca’s Angel must go there with an outstanding chance. Not only is she well suited by cut in the ground but she is also a course and distance winner having won a Group 3 there in May. In addition she will again receive the fillies’ allowance, so if the Nunthorpe form is to be believed and she can repeat it, it would take a performance of 123+ for a male horse to beat her there.

SHEER DYNAMITE


Many of this season’s top stayers lined up for the Group 2 Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup at York on Friday, writesMark Olley. On paper it looked a very open and competitive race with the winners of the Gold Cup, Goodwood Cup, Henry II, Ormonde and Sagaro all taking part.

However, in the race itself Max Dynamite travelled strongly and readily pulled clear for an impressive win despite his slightly unusual preparation in the Galway Hurdle, where he’d finished second. This smart hurdler has been an infrequent runner on the Flat and his start preceding Galway was a gallant second in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. So this was a deserved win, even if the ease of it did take me somewhat by surprise.

Mizzou was given a figure of 111 when winning the Sagaro at Ascot back in April. Luca Cumani’s colt beat the 106-rated Hidden Gold (received 3lb) by a length here, so I have left his figure unchanged, and that also fits in with my historical standard figure of around 111 for the Lonsdale Cup second.

I called the four and a half length winning margin 6lb and suggested a new figure of 117 for Max Dynamite to the Irish handicappers. This just pips Opinion Poll’s 116 in 2011 and is a ten year high figure for the race. It is also the joint highest performance from a stayer in the UK this year, alongside Agent Murphy’s Geoffrey Freer success at Newbury the previous week.

The Betfred Melrose and Ebor Handicaps at York on Saturday were both predictably fiercely competitive.

The Melrose was notable for the excellent run of Not Never who finished second. Hugo Palmer’s gelding took the field along at a decent pace and was only just denied by Polarisation in a tight finish in which all of those around him had been ridden patiently. Polarisation goes up 5lb to 91 and Not Never gets a 4lb rise to 95.

The Betfred Ebor had its share of drama. Pre-race there was the uncertainty as to whether ante-post favourite, and first reserve, Clondaw Warrior would get a run. Initially given a rating of 95 when the weights closed, he earned a 4lb penalty for a handicap win at Galway and ended up squeezing in at the 12th hour when top-weight Quest For More was withdrawn on Friday morning. He was officially 8lb ‘well-in’ as his new Irish rating after Galway was 107, but unusually for one of Willie Mullins’ Flat runners in the UK this summer he ran a disappointing race.

There was also the usual debate around the lack of three-year-olds in the race due to the field being listed by weight order. Due to the 12lb weight for age allowance that three-year-olds receive over 1m6f at this time of year they find it very hard to get a run. The lowest rated horse in the race last year was 98 and this year it was 99, so any three-year-old needed to be rated at least 111 to stand a chance of getting in. However, for the first time in several years we had one good enough in Aidan O’Brien’s Fields of Athenry. He is rated 114, but due to a Group 3 win at Leopardstown earlier this month (he did not need to run up to his 114 rating to win that race) he carried a 4lb penalty and ran off a rating of 118. By my reckoning this is the highest mark a horse has competed from in a British handicap since Tillerman ran off 119 in 2002. Fields of Athenry ran a superb race, but his early exuberance found him out in the end and he faded late on to finish a gallant fifth. He stays 1m6f, but possibly not when ridden so positively.

The training performance of the season surely goes to Joseph Tuite for his handling of Litigant. To get a horse to win a race as competitive as this year’s Ebor returning from a near 500-day absence is a great achievement. He moves up 7lb to 106 for this and will reportedly now step up to pattern company. There will likely need to be more improvement if he is to win there, but given his profile it would be a brave person to say that won’t happen.

Briefly returning to the debate over listing horses in weight (as currently happens) or ratings order for handicaps. I can see the case for both sides in this argument, but whichever method is used there will be winners and losers and it is interesting to note that I expect neither the winner Litigant nor favourite Clondaw Warrior would have got a run in this year’s race had ratings been the determining factor.

FANTASTIC FADHAYYIL


It’s again been reported that York are looking to upgrade the Sky Bet City of York Stakes and last week’s renewal should have helped the cause, with the large field looking extremely high on quality by listed-race standards, writesGraeme Smith.

Fadhayyil improved on the form she’d shown when fifth in the 1000 Guineas and second in the Jersey as she opened her account for the season. She nudged her pre-race rating up from 107 to 109 with her half-length defeat of Speculative Bid. Let’s not forget she was in receipt of the 5lb fillies’ allowance, and the runner-up’s improved rating of 113 puts the level of the form more into context.

The front two were chased home by a couple who’d earned their ratings when winning good-quality handicaps of late – Salateen ran to his pre-race 107 and Heaven’s Guest (who’d won the valuable International Handicap) was dropped 1lb to that level. Overall the form has a solid feel to it, acknowledging the fact it seemed important to race towards the far side of the pack as the field edged across in the straight.

Fadhayyil’s new figure of 109 sits tidily against Dutch Connection’s current rating of 116 from when he’d edged her out under a penalty in the Jersey. Also, it’s worth noting that she’s some way in advance of what Nakuti (100) achieved when winning a slightly substandard renewal of the Group 3 TBA Atalanta Stakes over 1m for fillies at Sandown on Saturday.

The 1m Clipper Logistics Handicap also saw a performance worthy of listed success from the top weight Chil The Kite. Hugh Morrison’s six-year-old had been placed in the last two runnings of the Royal Hunt Cup and defied a mark of 107 in a tight finish with the admirably tough Alfred Hutchinson. 113 is 1lb higher than Chil The Kite has ever been, but that level is substantiated by current reading of the form the runner-up showed when second at York in May, whilst the first six were spread out by more than six lengths.

The other two handicaps I dealt with at York look sure to prove strong form. The Eventsmasters EBF Stallions Stakes over 7f for fillies saw the market leaders come to the fore and Mistrusting’s rise to 105 (ran off 99 but was already due to rise to 100) could mean she still has her followers if turning up in a handicap again. She got home by only a neck from the progressive Dusky Queen, who found trouble, but the way she’d travelled when moving on initially will have struck plenty of analysts.

I’d mentioned how strong Spangled’s success over this trip at Newmarket’s July Festival had been proving and she’ll also have retained plenty of followers. She’ll have to leave the stalls faster than she did here, immediately on the back foot, but in the circumstances her running on into fourth could be viewed positively and the step up to 1m could also help her. For the time being she’s up 1lb to 97.

The biggest improver in any of my handicaps was My Dream Boat in the Nationwide Accident Repair Services Handicap for three-year-olds over 1m. His Sandown second to Grand Inquisitor in June continues to prove really strong and he wasted no time putting a poor show on good to firm ground behind him, showing the handicap-debutant Hathal the way at the head of a strung-out field. A 9lb rise to 101 could be enough to secure a place in the Cambridgeshire for Clive Cox’s charge, and the weights for that race are published next week.

It’s worth mentioning that Grand Inquisitor also contested that York handicap, with his connections reporting he’d been unsuited by the good to soft ground after finishing fifth. He obviously has that strong piece of form to his name from Sandown, and he remains on 95 as team policy decrees it would be unfair to apply a collateral rise to a horse who’s failed to even match that running in two outings since.

One final footnote is mention of the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville. Obviously the French handicapper has control over the figures for the first two home and the race will be discussed by the international panel at the end of the year. My current view was it was always going to be difficult for the field to uphold usual standards with the season’s best two milers, Solow (ineligible as a gelding) and Gleneagles, absent, and whereas our average winning performance from the last five years is around 125 my current figure for the impressive Esoterique (it’s worth remembering she got the fillies’ allowance) is just below 120.

[Perpetual]

A GOLDEN SEASON / 08 OCT 15


GOLDEN HORN CONTINUES THREE-YEAR-OLD DOMINATION OF THE PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE


Last Sunday, Golden Horn became the 17th three-year-old winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe from the last 22 renewals of the race with an authoritative performance, ably assisted by a ride which showed all of his jockey’s big race experience, writes Phil Smith.

At our meeting on Monday the International Handicappers agreed a performance figure of 128 for Golden Horn, just a little shy of his 130 achieved in the Eclipse back in July over 2f shorter.

To some readers that might be difficult to comprehend but you need to be aware that at Sandown, Golden Horn as a three-year-old was receiving 11lb weight for age whereas at Longchamp he was receiving only 7lb and going further.

The weight for age scale is predicated on the normal physical improvement expected of the average three-year-old as it reaches maturity. The scale is more generous the further the distance of the race. Of course horses do not all mature at the same rate so there are occasions when some relatively backward horses find it difficult to compete with their elders early in the season despite having a hefty allowance. In contrast for some three-year-olds the weight for age scale is a very handy advantage later in the year. So what of Golden Horn?

To have recorded a 130 performance he would have needed to have improved physically by 6lb between the Eclipse and the Arc assuming he is equally effective at 1m4f as he is at 1m2f. He has improved, but only by 4lb during that time.

In the Investec Derby his performance figure was 126 and had the Derby included four-year-olds he would have been receiving 15lb weight for age. The fact that he was able to perform to 128 in Paris with only 7lb weight for age suggests that he has improved 10lb between June and October, 2lb more than expected.

It can be seen that Golden Horn has clearly improved in that time frame, but at some points faster than what is expected and at some points slightly slower, exactly what happens to most horses.

Moving on to Treve, much has been written about the effect of the ground on her performance and some have been critical of her jockey. There is almost certainly an element of truth in those assessments but in my view there were two other factors that I have not seen mentioned.

The first is that her pacemaker did not go fast enough. The overall time of the race was disappointing compared with other times over the two days and compared with previous Arcs. For example it was over a second slower than Treve’s victory last year.

Neither Golden Horn, Flintshire or New Bay were in any way inconvenienced by the pace that was set and they all still had plenty of energy left for the last three furlongs of the race, when Jarnet was hoping that they would be stopping a little and susceptible to Treve’s finishing burst.


I am reluctant to be over critical of Gregory Benoist on Shahah as in most big races the jockeys on the pacemakers go off at a ridiculous speed. Perhaps connections should have persuaded Ian Mongan out of retirement. In my opinion his pace making on Bullet Train for Frankel was by some considerable distance the most effective by any jockey I have seen in my 45 years of race watching.

There is a further reason why perhaps Treve faced an impossible task. In the last 20 years, eight three-year-olds who won the Arc came back to defend their titles and none managed to improve or even equal their rating. Even Treve who became the first horse to win the race in successive years since Alleged found her rating declining from 130 to 126.

Year	Three-year-old winner	Three-year-old rating	Four-year-old rating
1996	Helissio	134	126
1998	Sagamix	126	120
1999	Montjeu	135	130
2004	Bago	127	124
2005	Hurricane Run	130	126
2010	Workforce	128	125
2011	Danedream	128	124
2013	Treve	130	126

Three of the above won the King George at Ascot as four-year-olds but none were able to replicate their performance in the Arc as a three-year-old.

Given the ground, given the way the race was run, given Dettori’s brilliance, given Golden Horn’s continued development, ability to take a position and stay 12 furlongs strongly and given the weight for age scale, Treve faced a near impossible task.

LIVING THE DREAM


The featured sprint on the Arc card was the Group 1 Qatar Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp run over 5f, writes Chris Nash. The British-trained Goldream took the spoils and in the process secured his third win from just five outings this season, two of which have been Group 1 victories. He won the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot and arrived in France with a rating of 113. On Sunday he came from a mid-division position to lead late and beat the French-trained Rangali by a neck. There was a further one and three-quarter lengths back to Muthmir in third and he was three-quarters of a length ahead of Pearl Secret.
As often with Group race sprint form finding a level wasn’t easy. Rangali arrived rated 108 in France, though he had twice recorded significantly higher figures than that in 2014 – running to 115 when winning a Group 2 and 112 when second in that renewal of the Abbaye. Muthmir arrived rated 115, having defied a penalty in the Group 2 King George at Goodwood, and that form’s stood up well.

The key thing for me was that Goldream and Muthmir had met three times in 2015 and on all three occasions Goldream had come out on top so it was only right that he left this race rated the better horse. Given that the Goodwood form had some solidity I was going to leave Muthmir on 115 and so I was looking at a minimum of 116 for Goldream. Having him performing to 116 on Sunday meant that Rangali replicated his career-best 115, which seemed a reasonable enough conclusion. That means that Muthmir ran only to 110 and it’s possible that racing closer to the early pace than either of the first two might have slightly limited his finishing effort. Pearl Secret records a figure of 108 but that is likely to be the bare minimum of his achievement in this race as a wide draw (he was dropped in last) surely left him at a disadvantage.

The good ground in France on Sunday meant that Mecca’s Angel didn’t take her chance. She has a rating of 120 and would have received a fillies’ allowance of 3lbs from all the other runners. The figures suggested that she would have had an outstanding chance of adding to her victory in the Nunthorpe and cementing her place as the highest rated 5f horse in Europe this season.

UNBELIEVABLE


The British-trained Limato was sent off a short-priced favourite in his bid to record a first Group 1 success in the Qatar Prix de la Forêt, but it was another three-year-old colt that came out on top, writes Michael Harris.
The Andre Fabre-trained Make Believe, last seen toiling behind Gleneagles on quick ground in the St James’s Palace Stakes, had beaten New Bay in the French 2000 Guineas back in May and had been freshened up since his below par run at Ascot in which he refused to settle under Olivier Peslier. Travelling comfortably on the heels of the leaders, he got a nice split on the inside and asserted readily, eventually going on to score by one and a quarter lengths. The first three-year- old winner of this race since Dream Ahead in 2011 (126), I have Make Believe running to 121 which is the best 7f performance in Europe this season and 1lb lower than the figure Olympic Glory achieved (122) when winning this race twelve months ago.

Toormore (third) has been a model of consistency this year and I am happy that he has confirmed his pre-race rating of 115 and as such I have Limato running to 118, not quite matching his win at Doncaster (119).

In winning the Park Stakes, Limato dispelled any previous stamina concerns and judged on his run at Longchamp it may be that we will not see him drop back to tackle 6f again. After a slow start, Limato did not travel with the ease we’ve been accustomed to seeing and he found himself four lengths detached at the back of the field alongside G Force. He did eventually consent to improve his position and showed the turn of foot we have seen throughout his career but it was all too late. His late surge was eye-catching but nothing should be taken away from the winner who looked to have something left in the tank with Olivier Peslier easing down in the last fifty yards after looking confident throughout.

[Grey]

Good stuff as usual. By the way Kevin Blake was another to remark that Treve's pacemaker went too slow.

[EC1]

Good stuff as usual. By the way Kevin Blake was another to remark that Treve's pacemaker went too slow.

spotting that was only a bit harder than knowing it was sunday to be fair Grey...not really getting how Kevin Blake is considered some kind of guru tbh..have read his stuff a bit..then again i've probably missed something..i usually do. I'd take Rory and Andy Holding as being a way in front of him tbh

[Grey]

Moving on to Treve, much has been written about the effect of the ground on her performance and some have been critical of her jockey. There is almost certainly an element of truth in those assessments but in my view there were two other factors that I have not seen mentioned. The first is that her pacemaker did not go fast enough...

I was merely referring to this statement in Phil Smith's piece.

[EC1]

sorry Grey...making a habit of this..apologies

all i can say..he must have a very small circle of people he reads then Grey..or people just didn't state the obvious where he did read..i doubt many people who just watched the race thought they went an even pace...even without seeing any splits

[Grey]

It was clear right enough that they weren't going fast in the early part of the race

[reet hard]

To have recorded a 130 performance he would have needed to have improved physically by 6lb between the Eclipse and the Arc assuming he is equally effective at 1m4f as he is at 1m2f. He has improved, but only by 4lb during that time.

In the Investec Derby his performance figure was 126 and had the Derby included four-year-olds he would have been receiving 15lb weight for age. The fact that he was able to perform to 128 in Paris with only 7lb weight for age suggests that he has improved 10lb between June and October, 2lb more than expected.

It can be seen that Golden Horn has clearly improved in that time frame, but at some points faster than what is expected and at some points slightly slower, exactly what happens to most horses.

Blind Pew would have seen GH isn't the same horse at 10f he is at 12. His fast/slow improvement also owes more to his being overrated for the Eclipse than it does to common sense.

[Perpetual]

QIPCO CHAMPIONS DAY / 20 OCT 15

The culmination of the British season drew a wealth of Europe’s finest and marked the crowning of not one but two divisional champions, one of whom stamped himself as the best in his division in Britain for more than a decade. Here our team gives a full review of all five Championship races and just how they impact on end-of-season classifications.

DOING A SOLOW


A ninth straight success for Solow in the QIPCO Queen Elizabeth II Stakes left him very much in pole position for the title of Champion Miler of Europe but once again he did little more than was necessary in winning a modest renewal of a race that is often considered the key to the pecking order in the division, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

With runner-up Belardo (pre-race 112) and fourth-placed Integral (117) without a win between them this year, and third-placed Gabrial (113) unsuccessful in 11 starts since winning the Lincoln off 100 back in March, this year’s race cannot be considered a vintage running.

In terms of putting performance figures on the race, my first instinct was to have Gabrial reproducing the 113 he ran when third behind Solow in the Sussex at Goodwood, which would mean Solow had run to 118 on Saturday and Belardo 116. It may be that come the meeting of the international handicappers in Hong Kong in December that that is the route the committee will decide to take. After digging a little deeper into the form however, I have decided to set the current level of the race 1lb above that; as such I now have Solow running 119, Belardo 117 and Gabrial 114.

My reasons for this line of thinking are as follows:

· In running to 113 in the Sussex, Gabrial was beaten two-and-three-quarter lengths by Solow – on Saturday he was beaten two-and-a-quarter lengths, thus closing the gap by half a length or the equivalent of 1lb improvement.

· In the Sussex, Solow beat the 118-rated Arod by half a length. At Ascot he beat Belardo by the equivalent of a neck further, suggesting that Belardo should be 1lb inferior to Arod.

· Most of the International handicappers have Integral running to 114 in the Sun Chariot on her previous start – I have now dropped her BHA rating to that level but Belardo was conceding her the 3lb sex allowance and at 116 it would have meant that (in theory) Integral should have beaten him. At 117 they at least had the same theoretical chance on Saturday


· In the light of Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs’ subsequent Derby figures, the pace making Elm Park could easily have performed to 113 in the Dante – a figure that supports my current level for the QEII.

It was disappointing that the likes of Gleneagles (sixth; ran to 113), Territories (seventh; 112) and Kodi Bear (eight; 111) failed to live up to expectations for various reasons, but let’s take nothing away from Solow. He will retain his pre-race rating of 124 and he can only turn up and beat what is put in front of him – something he has done with supreme professionalism all year long.

SIMPLE AS THAT


It might only be the fifth running but Saturday’s QIPCO British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes was the highest quality field so far, writes Phil Smith. It looked a good contest beforehand and with victory going to the St Leger winner, from a clearly progressive filly who had won three of her last four starts, the result confirmed my pre-race thoughts.

Here are my performance figures for the first four home of each of the five renewals.

Year	Winner	Perf figure	Second	Third	Fourth	Average
2011	Dancing Rain	117	114	111	111	113.25
2012	Sapphire	116	112	108	106	110.5
2013	Seal of Approval	114	108	107	106	109.75
2014	Madame Chiang	113	110	109	109	110.25
2015	Simple Verse	117	115	113	112	114.25

The further she went the better she went, and using Bocca Baciata as my base for the race on 111 (third successive 111) brings Simple Verse out on 117. The distance between the two fillies was three-and-a-half lengths and I called that 6lb as Simple Verse was going away at the line. That’s exactly what I’d do if a horse won one of my handicaps in that fashion.

In the QIPCO Champion Stakes the three highest rated horses finished first, second and third, although not in the order suggested by their ratings. Fascinating Rock improved from his 120 going in to 123 with his defeat of the 118-rated Found, who received the 3lb fillies’ allowance. Jack Hobbs (at 120) performed just a little below his best of 123. Whenever a horse runs below its rating we always look back at its form to see if we’re still happen with our existing assessments.

In Jack Hobbs’ case I’m confident he’s worth his 123 as Storm The Stars endorsed the Irish Derby form in the Voltigeur and both that one and Golden Horn have done plenty for the Epsom form too. So why just a little below his best? It may prove that 1m4f suits him ideally rather than the 1m2f of Saturday’s race. The performances I have for his three starts at 1m2f are 119, 119 and 120, whereas his two Derby performances at 1m4f are 121 and 123. Group 1 races are won and lost by such small margins.

MUHAARAR CONFIRMS HE’S KING


This year’s 6f QIPCO British Champions Sprint was the first staged with Group 1 status and boasted a field well worthy of that tag, with no less than four of the 20-strong field previously successful at this level, writes Stewart Copeland.

The main focus of the race was whether Muhaarar could land his fourth Group 1 success in a row and cap what had already been a fantastic season, one in which he’d laid claim to being one of the best British sprinters for many a year. He didn’t disappoint.

Sent off a somewhat generous looking 5/2 favourite, he was always travelling well just behind the pace and when asked to assert over a furlong out, did so in tremendous style, soon putting daylight between himself and his rivals. Chasing him home was the previously unbeaten Twilight Son, winner of the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup, with Danzeno and The Tin Man filling the remaining two places.

One significance of the result is that three-year-olds filled three of the first four places, and that age group has largely dominated the Group 1 6f sprints in Britain this year. The introduction of a revamped sprint programme for three-year-olds has certainly increased the strength in depth of that division, with the focal point of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot surely playing an important role in Muhaarar’s development as a sprinter.

As for Muhaarar’s performance on Saturday, his two-length defeat of Twilight Son is arguably a career best and as good a performance as we’ve seen by a British sprinter on these shores since his sire, Oasis Dream, ran to 125 in winning the 2003 July Cup. Even though his rating will have to be ratified at the year-end World Rankings conference in Hong Kong, I’ve taken the view that Muhaarar ran to a figure of 123 at Ascot.

The form has a very solid look to it, with the second, third and fifth-placed Naadirr all tying in neatly on the pick of their previous efforts. That means Twilight Son reproduced his Haydock rating of 117, with Danzeno credited with 113. A mention must also be given to The Tin Man in fourth, who’s progressed at a rapid rate of late and ran an excellent race for such an inexperienced horse stepping up significantly in class. He posted a rating of 112.

To further illustrate the strength of the form, whilst accepting the fact the race has been upgraded this year, Twilight Son’s performance would have been good enough to win every other renewal (run as the Diadem prior to 2011) this millennium with the exception of Deacon Blues’ triumph in 2011. He can consider himself somewhat unlucky to be born in the same year as Muhaarar!

Sadly it appears we’ve seen the last of Muhaarar on the racetrack, with connections ruling out a tilt at the Breeders’ Cup. His performances this year have lit up the sprint scene, particularly his two stunning successes at Ascot, and it’s been a privilege to watch and assess his development.

FLYING HIGH


The Group 2 QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup was run at a very steady pace and subsequently turned into a messy race with plenty of horses meeting varying levels of trouble in running, writes Mark Olley.

The one horse to avoid all the trouble was Flying Officer, who was given a superb ride by Frankie Dettori. Sat just off the slow pace, Frankie was quick to push Flying Officer through a gap on the rail over three furlongs out and from there he was in the perfect position to make a long run for home. I would imagine he was in front sooner than ideal, but while his rivals were getting in each other’s way John Gosden’s gelding was powering his way to a clear-cut win. His rating moves from 109 to 115, as I called the one length winning margin 2lb due to idling/being eased in the final few strides.

Conversely things did not go to plan for Clever Cookie. His usual patient running style was ill-suited to the slow pace of this race and he found a wall of horses in front of him as he tried to make progress. Once in the clear he made a lot of late headway only to find Flying Officer beyond recall. I think this run is at least as good as his York listed win back in May and have subsequently left his rating unchanged on 113. Peter Niven’s likeable gelding has been in the form of his life on the Flat this summer. He loves ease in the ground and will hopefully be a major force in the Cup races next season.

Irish runner Wicklow Brave came to hold every chance entering the final furlong, but he is not quite as strong a stayer as the front two and was caught for second close home. Willie Mullins’ gelding clearly stays 2m, but I can’t help feeling the 1m6f, or just beyond, could be his optimum trip. He came into the race rated 111 and nudges up 1lb to 112.

Pallasator was one of the major sufferers, as Wicklow Brave angled out for a run two furlongs from home. Sir Mark Prescott’s gelding took a major bump, but despite that recovered to keep on nicely for fourth. I am certainly not suggesting he was unlucky, but I am sure he could have finished closer with more luck in running.

Last year’s winner Forgotten Rules has generally failed to build on that win, when he was having just his third Flat race start. However, it would be harsh to be too critical of this performance as he found significant trouble in running and this effort is best forgiven.

My figures have this as the strongest renewal of the race since Fame And Glory beat Opinion Poll and Colour Vision back in 2011, but it is very unlikely to provide Europe’s Champion Stayer as Order of St George currently has an Irish rating of 124 for his scintillating Irish St Leger victory in September.

[Euronymous]

Cannot have Muhaarar on a lower rating than Solow. Smacks of bias imo.

[edgt]

Fair point Euro, but to be fair he does rate the sprinter's performance as being the joint best of Champions Day across the card.

[Perpetual]

Last 2015 flat thoughts...

ALL AMERICAN DREAM / 03 NOV 15


Phil Smith puts American Pharoah’s Breeders’ Cup achievement into context in an all Breeders’ Cup bulletin below, and the best of the rest, including the defeat of our own pin-up champion, follows on.

PHAROAH SLAM DUNKS IT


No horse had ever completed the Triple Crown and won a Breeders’ Cup, so the American press invented the “Grand Slam” in the run-up to Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, writes Phil Smith. After two furlongs it became clear that with no “stalking horse” being prepared to take on American Pharoah it would take a below par performance from the best horse in the world to stop him winning the “Slam.”

In the event he strolled home by six and a half lengths. It looked further and I gave him value for eight lengths, which equates to 14lb over 1m2f. However it is mighty difficult to put a figure on his performance because of the proximity of Effinex in second. Effinex (named after the owner’s previous wife) had won the Suburban Stakes at Belmont in July performing to 115, beating Tonalist a head but in receipt of 6lb.

If I used that performance then American Pharoah was 129, 2lb below his Haskell win. Surely this was American Pharoah’s finest hour and 129 was too low? For me there are two main criteria for proving a horse’s ability. One of them is when a three-year-old beats the best older horses. This was the first time he had faced the older horses and he had slammed them.

The United States have been in the Longines World Rankings (formerly called the International Classifications) since 1995. The highest rated American three-year-olds in that time have been Skip Away (130 in 1996) and Point Given (also 130 in 2001). I just can’t have it that Saturday’s win was inferior to those horses. So how high can I go?

The highest rated American horse in that time has been 1996 Cigar on 135. Time may have shown that American Pharoah was better than that but my second criteria is that great horses have to show that they can give the weight for age as well as receive it. Sadly he is not going to be given that opportunity. Unusually for an American horse Cigar showed himself to be a champion in another continent so I am struggling to get the Pharoah to that level, especially when Effinex finishes second.

Of course time may show that Effinex is an improver and is well suited to a fast pace, (the time was a course record!). It will be interesting to see if he runs again this season and can replicate his 119 or improve on it. If he can then it would be easy to get the winner higher. For the moment I have Effinex on 119 and the winner on 133.
I suspect my International colleagues are finding it as difficult as I did to set the level as only the Brazilian Handicapper had put his figures on our International database at the time of writing. We agree!
I have Found running to 118 in both the Irish and QIPCO Champion Stakes. Surely she cannot have performed worse at Keeneland when winning the Turf? As a result, if Found is 118 then Golden Horn (119) has run 11lb below his 130 best, because I called the winning margin 2lb as to my mind Found won comfortably. Remember she gets a 3lb fillies’ allowance.
It is unsurprising that Golden Horn struggled on that ground which was inconsistent and varied between good and soft. I cannot get Found any higher because of the proximity of Big Blue Kitten, an exposed seven-year-old whose previous best this season was 118 when winning the Joe Hirsch at Belmont, a figure I have him reproducing on Saturday when he was three quarters of a length or 1lb behind Golden Horn.

A TACTICAL MILE


The Europeans fielded a strong squad for the Breeders’ Cup Mile but it was another contest to prove a disappointment for the visitors, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

In a steadily-run race it paid to race prominently and Tepin (winner), Grand Arch (third) and Mshawish (fourth) raced in the first five throughout, with the filly Tepin blowing the race apart when kicking for home early in the straight. From my own ratings perspective it is not a difficult race to put figures on – Grand Arch has never been better than 115 in my book and that fits in neatly with Mshawish, who I reckon has been a pretty consistent 114 of late and was half a length behind; using these two as a guide Tepin has performed to 120 and runner-up Mondialiste (pre-race 115) to 118.

The latter deserves extra credit as he was the only one to make any real impression from rear – still out with the washing turning for home, he didn’t get the clearest of runs early in the straight but once angled to the outer came home twice as fast as anything else. I will be raising him to his performance figure of 118 but there has to be a chance that he may prove slightly better than that figure when things go more his way – it will be interesting to see where David O’Meara sends him next, Hong Kong maybe?

I suspect the combination of the ground and a wide draw scuppered the chances of the other British challenger Time Test and he will retain his current rating of 119 despite running only to 107 in finishing 10th of the 12 starters. He is another who the faster ground in Hong Kong might suit?

A FEW FOR THE FUTURE


The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf races went pretty well for the Europeans with first and third in the colts’ race and second and third in the fillies’, writes Matthew Tester.

Hit It A Bomb made his debut only five weeks ago and is now a Grade 1 winner having won three out of three races. He was given an audacious ride by Ryan Moore to come from last place to lead close home. Lots of other jockeys tried the same trick over the weekend but only Ryan pulled it off.

Great credit must for to Richard Fahey for getting third with Birchwood in the same race beaten only two necks.

Birchwood has been on the go since 2 May and ran a career best. I have not yet had the chance to discuss the figures with my international colleagues. My holding figures are 115 for the winner and 113 for the Birchwood. Hit It A Bomb therefore comes out 8lb behind his stable-mate Air Force Blue on those figures, which equates to around four lengths over the mile of next year’s Guineas. He could well have improvement in him; but so might Air Force Blue.

In the fillies’ race Alice Springs ran right up to her Group 1 form in Europe at 111 to finish runner-up to Catch A Glimpse, who had strong claims pre-race. Nemoralia for Jeremy Noseda ran a fine race in third and goes up from 105 to 110 for the run.

But none of those fillies can hold a candle to Songbird – winner of the fillies’ race on dirt.

Songbird had been hacking up in her prep races and did so again. She won by five and three-quarter lengths without ever coming under maximum pressure. She is just about as good a two-year-old dirt filly as I have seen in the eight years I’ve been doing USA ratings. The placed horses all had really good Group form but Songbird made every yard and the win was never in doubt.

Nyquist was top-rated going into the colts’ dirt race and beat Swipe for the third successive time. The form book says he is a solid winner but was not exceptional. In fact, my figures say that he would not have won the fillies’ race. That is how good Songbird looks.

[Perpetual]

And the first solely NH for 2015/16...

THE RETURNING HEROES / 03 NOV 15


Last week’s racing wasn’t only about the Breeders’ Cup as there were significant clashes in the fledging NH season, with several of the big guns starting out on their trail to riches. The best of the action is all covered.

STILL THE DON


The 2015-16 national hunt season is starting in earnest and there was a graded 3m chase on either side of the Irish Sea on Saturday, writes Chris Nash.

Undoubtedly the most impressive performance came from Don Cossack who won the Grade 1 JNWine.com Chase at Down Royal. The winner led four fences from home and was totally unextended to cross the line eight lengths clear of the duelling Rocky Creek and Roi Du Mee, who were separated by a neck.

Roi Du Mee is probably just a shade below the best but he is a consistent sort in this type of race and is currently rated 154. He provides a reasonable guide to the form and that is largely backed up by Rocky Creek who, although currently rated 162, also finished second in this last year on his seasonal return when he ran to a figure of 154.

This view means Don Cossack ran to a bare figure of 162 but the manner of his victory was such that his official eight-length winning margin underestimates his superiority – I think you could at least double that margin so I would suggest that he has run to nearer 170. He arrived as the highest rated chaser in Britain and Ireland on a mark of 175 following Grade 1 victories at both Aintree and Punchestown last April and this performance suggests he’s returned just as good as ever. His connections later expressed their intention to target the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day followed by a tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.

The feature race at Wetherby on Saturday was the Grade 2 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase and it saw a return to form for Cue Card. Colin Tizzard’s nine-year-old reached of peak of 174 when winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock and second in the King George in 2013 but he’d rather lost his way last season. He’s evidently back on track.

He led at the top of the straight and saw it out gamely to beat Dynaste (rated 166) by three and three-quarter lengths with a further neck back to Ballynagour (rated 163). I took the view that Ballynagour was the best guide to this form, which meant Cue Card ran to a figure of 167 – a little below the peak of his powers but a significant step up on anything he achieved last season.

Cue Card’s next race may well be an attempt to win the Betfair Chase once again but he also holds an entry in the Hennessy Gold Cup. The weights for that early-closing handicap are published on 12 November which means that that this run will be taken into account and Cue Card would line up there off his revised mark of 167. Further down the field on Saturday was Many Clouds who was last seen winning the Grand National in April off a mark of 160. He was burdened with a 10lb penalty at Wetherby and made a respectable return in the circumstances, running to a figure of 154.

COOL TOO HOT


In unseasonable warmth, Kilcooley stamped his authority all over his rivals in the Bet365 West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby, writes Martin Greenwood.

Bearing in mind the weights carried, there was only 1lb between Rock On Ruby, Aqalim and Kilcooley based on BHA ratings, and they duly occupied the first three places, though there was certainly more than 1lb between them at the finish.

Obviously fitness and wellbeing counts plenty in these early season graded races, and over the years the West Yorkshire Hurdle hasn’t gone on to provide the best form guide for the season ahead. Given the recent rain however, this looked a stronger line up than in recent years, and in Kilcooley we have a horse who could well challenge for some of the top prizes in the staying hurdle division this season.

Basically Kilcooley has shown unrelenting progress since the beginning of the last season, with a couple of blow outs thrown in for good measure. A notion persists that Kilcooley resents being taken on for the lead sometimes, but boy when he’s on song he takes an awful lot of reeling in.

At Wetherby he ground the field into submission, Rock On Ruby not showing anywhere near the same levels of stamina (on his first attempt at 3m) as the winner having travelled well for a long way, while Aqalim didn’t travel sweetly and only plugged on late.

It is almost certainly the wrong call to take the form literally, but I surmise that this is the best winning performance in this race for a while (the average recent winner was in the mid-150s) and I have raised Kilcooley to a personal best of 164, the same rating as current World Hurdle Champion and 2014 West Yorkshire Hurdle winner Cole Harden. Only Jezki and Whisper are rated higher in this division. Kilcooley perhaps needs to find a tad more consistency but he is one to treat with respect.

INVESTMENT PAYS OFF


Aintree’s Monet’s Garden Old Roan Chase tends to mark just the starting point of a campaign for the smart chases it attracts, and with that in mind I feel I’ve taken a relatively cautious view of the form for now, writes Graeme Smith.
Sound Investment is a young chaser who’s still on the up, and with a recent hurdles run under his belt he improved his rating 4lb to 159 in gaining his most valuable success to date. He has the option of putting that new mark to the test in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham three weeks on from Aintree and the weights for that were finalised on Monday and will be published this week.

Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old has the sort of profile that suggests a bigger rise might have been justifiable but it’s the proximity of Wishfull Thinking and Buywise in second and third that’s tempered my view.

Wishfull Thinking enjoyed something of a Indian Summer last autumn when winning both the Old Roan and the Peterborough Chase but he’s rising 13 now, and bearing in mind that those two wins took several knocks as the season progressed (both ended up valued at less than 165) I feel a 3lb rise to 165 is probably asking enough of him. Also, Buywise made his way into many a notebook around this time last year, but he’s had four chances now from marks in the mid- to high-140s and while he continues to jump as he has done I don’t feel a significant rise is necessary. Incidentally, he came to the Old Roan rated 147 but is judged as running off 148 after his rider came back 1lb heavy. Clearly competitive off 148, that’s what he’ll run from next time.

The most interesting race I dealt with last week was probably the Ascot Underwriting Novices’ Handicap on Saturday’s Ascot card. In fact, it’s one of the most competitive novice handicap chases I’ve dealt with all autumn. It may be that the connections of Padge, Voix d’Eau and Anatol feel I’ve taken a higher view than they perhaps expected but I think the form will stand up.

All three are lightly raced, whilst Padge improved fast through four starts over hurdles and Voix d’Eau had already been a wide-margin winner of a weaker race of this type at Ffos Las. Padge goes up 10lb to 143, which includes an extra 1lb on top of the bare three-quarter length margin over Voix d’Eau after he’d lost momentum when jinking badly left on the run-in (not the first time he’s run around in front). Voix d’Eau is up 8lb to 138, and I’ve also raised my initial assessment of his Ffos Las form.

Third-placed Anatol was having his first start for Paul Nicholls’ having been imported from France and was a sight to behold as he attacked from the front, putting in some spectacular leaps. He may or may not prove more tractable with a run under his belt, but either way his connections have the option of dropping down from this 2m3f trip. Next time he’ll be 4lb higher at 136.

[Perpetual]

OPENING GAMBIT / 17 NOV 15


Cheltenham’s Open Meeting saw the first major days of the season at Prestbury Park and the occasion was marked by a tremendous finish to the feature Paddy Power Gold Cup. The best of the action from the first two days is discussed the week, and there’ll be another bulletin next week taking in Sprinter Sacre’s destruction of the Shloer Chase on what is one of the sport’s feature Sundays. Stay tuned…

ANNACOTTY STRIKES GOLD

The Grade 3 Paddy Power Gold Cup is the first big early-closing 2m4f handicap chase of the season, writes Mark Olley. This year there were no “well-in” horses, as all the runners raced from their current handicap ratings, and I don’t think I can remember such an open race.

There was a full field of twenty runners and the lowest rated horse was Generous Ransom on 140, compared to King Massini on 131 last year.

Next Sensation took the field along at a brisk pace and that played into the hands of the patiently ridden horses, with the first three finishers all sitting mid-division or further back through the main part of the race.

Any number of horses looked like winning at one stage or another, notably Irish Cavalier who loomed up travelling ominously well two out, but in the end the race went to Annacotty. He had been on and off the bridle, but responded magnificently to pressure and battled on gamely for a famous win. Alan King’s gelding has a great record at Cheltenham around 2m4f.

There were just over six lengths between the first six horses home so there are no major changes in any of their ratings. Annacotty moves up 5lb to a new figure of 152 and he must be a strong contender if he returns to Cheltenham for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup next month.

Buywise was the real eye-catching horse of the race and it didn’t escape many people’s attention how unlucky he was. Coming into the home straight on the first circuit he slipped quite badly, and that combined with his usual less-than-slick jumping meant he was still in last place in the main bunch three fences from home.

He flew up the run-in but the line came just too soon and he had to settle for second, three places better than last year. Evan Williams’ gelding moves up 4lb to a new rating of 152 and he surely has a big handicap in him if, one of these days, everything falls right.

Sound Investment had beaten Buywise by three and three-quarter lengths in the Old Roan at Aintree in October, but on 4lb better terms Buywise reversed those placings. Paul Nicholls’ gelding ran a superb race under top-weight and moves to a new figure of 162 (up 3lb) and has shown a level of form that deserves a crack at the 2m4f graded races. Incidentally, Graeme Smith has revised his initial view of the Old Roan and Wishfull Thinking got a 2lb rise on the back of Buywise and Sound Investment’s efforts here.

Double Ross did best of those that raced prominently and after some deliberation I decided to leave his rating unchanged on 153. His rating hit a peak of 160 at this time last year. Most of his racing in the past twelve months has been done over 3m, but he is clearly very effective at the shorter 2m4f distance.

Favourite Kings Palace travelled into the race very strongly just after halfway on this first try in handicap company. All his racing over the past two years has been at three miles or further so stamina clearly wasn’t to blame for his weak finish. This was similar to several of David Pipe’s runners on Saturday and I have no doubt there will be other days for this talented young chaser.

VILLAGE IN BLOOM

Only four runners faced the starter for the Neptune Investment Management Hyde Novices’ Hurdle on the opening day of the Open meeting at Cheltenham, writes Martin Greenwood.
The good news however is that the winner Shantou Village looks well up to standard, and looks a good prospect.

Those comments applied to odds-on shot Penglai Pavilion going into the race following his impressive course and distance victory the previous month. However on this occasion he never looked particularly happy and was quickly beaten when coming off the bridle. He had won twice on heavy ground when a high-class Flat horse but maybe he prefers a faster surface these days, though the jockey reported the horse ran ’flat’. Whatever the reason for Penglai’s well under par effort, he is worth another chance to prove his 146 rating.

That same figure is now attached to Shantou Village, who had impressed enormously at Carlisle on his hurdling debut and was nearly as visually impressive at Cheltenham, coasting clear from expensive bumper winner Champers On Ice. Things will get tougher from now on for Shantou Village but he is yet another good prospect from the ever more impressive Neil Mulholland stable.

[simmo]

Double Ross did best of those that raced prominently and after some deliberation I decided to leave his rating unchanged on 153. His rating hit a peak of 160 at this time last year. Most of his racing in the past twelve months has been done over 3m, but he is clearly very effective at the shorter 2m4f distance.

I'd fancy Double Ross to win a big one this year off this sort of mark.

[Perpetual]

RETURNING HEROES / 24 NOV 15

The last racing week was bookended by top-class performances, and all the more notable for the fact the two horses who produced them were announcing their return after spells in the wilderness. The question is obvious – how do their reincarnations compare to the forces they’d been in the past? Here’s our answer.

CUE CARD BACK TO HIS BEST

Anyone who watched Cue Card’s superlative round of jumping and facile victory at Haydock on Saturday must have realised immediately that Colin Tizzard’s nine-year-old was back to his best, writes Phil Smith. Unfortunately with neither Dynaste, Holywell nor Ballynagour running any sort of race, in effect, Cue Card beat one horse.

The most sensible thing to do in the circumstances was to put him back to his highest end of season figure which was 172 in 2013-2014. That season had also seen him win a Betfair Chase when he finished just under six lengths ahead of Silviniaco Conti. On Saturday it was a comfortable seven lengths.

Because of that I was tempted to put him higher, especially when I did a time comparison with the 3m handicap chase won by Vieux Lion Rouge who is now on 146. The Betfair Chase was run 8.5 seconds faster than the closing handicap, which equates to 34lb on that ground. As Cue Card carried 1lb more I could justify 181 on that basis. I am just not confident of putting Cue Card to such a high figure from a race where none of his opponents ran to their rating.

Silviniaco Conti has run below his best on 159. I deemed the very easy victory to be worth 13lb. As a result I have dropped his rating to 168 as he has failed to achieve his 172 in any of his runs since last year’s King George victory. However he still jumped well and would be a very interesting entry in the Crabbie’s Grand National.

If Cue Card can win the King George in such emphatic style I would have no hesitation in promoting him into the 180s, a rating that very few chasers manage to achieve..


THE BLACK AEROPLANE SOARS AGAIN


Is he back? Sprinter Sacre certainly looked more like his old self when demolishing five high-class rivals in last Sunday’s Shloer Chase at Cheltenham, writes Graeme Smith.

It’s a while since Nicky Henderson’s nine-year-old last travelled with such verve. He was clearly enjoying himself as the field started down the back straight and then locked hard on to the bridle jumping the ninth of thirteen fences, from which point he tanked past the front-running Mr Mole and soon had the field on the stretch. It briefly looked as though there was the potential for him to deflate as the field got to within three and a half lengths when he was tight into the second last, but he ran away again for pressure to pass the line an ever-increasing fourteen lengths to the good.

Taking a strict line through the pre-race mark of Somersby (164) would bring Sprinter Sacre out at 178, but the proximity of third-placed Savello put something of a dampener on that. Savello came to the race rated just 154, so had the potential to really rain on Sprinter’s parade, more so having conceded him weight.

I take the view that Savello’s proximity has to play a part in my assessment of the form but it shouldn’t be the central theme for several reasons: firstly we considered he’d run as high as 157 when winning at Punchestown in June, secondly it’s not impossible improvement could be forthcoming for the recent switch to the excellent Dan Skelton, and thirdly and perhaps most importantly was the ride he came in for. In a well-run race – every individual section I clocked was run at a faster percentage of the final time than the smart novice chase earlier on the card but for the last one from three out – Savello didn’t really go with the principals. When the pace was really turned on and seemed ridden to some extent to pick up the pieces – hence still having something to give as his rivals tired in the closing stages.

I took the view that raising Savello to 157 to match his Irish form was a fair thing to do but treated him as having run to 160 (with an element of doubt) for the purposes of my overall assessment of the form. I chose that figure as that’s the current rating of the fourth-placed Simply Ned – it’s a reasonably solid one with him having won a handicap recently – and it split the difference between Savello potentially being flattered to beat Simply Ned due to the relative tactics employed and Simply Ned’s mistakes, but also gave him some credit for defeating that horse.

The shakedown meant Sprinter Sacre returned a figure of 173. That’s his best since he won at Punchestown in spring 2013 yet still some way shy of his finest hour. Obviously, there’s the potential for that figure to be tweaked as the horses from Sunday’s race run again but to put it into context as things stand, last season’s Champion two-miler was Dodging Bullets at 171, while the ever-impressive Un de Sceaux signed off his novice season at 168. The question of how much more any of the exalted trio find for stiffer competition as the season develops will certainly keep me hooked!

OLD PLAN WORKS FOR GUARD


There was more than a hint of deja vu about the success of Old Guard in the StanJames.com Greatwood Handicap Hurdle, centrepiece of the final day of the Open Meeting, at the magnificently revamped Prestbury venue, writes David Dickinson.

Trainer Paul Nicholls had won the race with another four-year-old Brampour in 2011, a second ride on that horse for teenage amateur Harry Derham, the pair having scored at Ascot prior to their Greatwood success. Old Guard has been ridden in his two wins this season by another highly promising teenager well worth his claim, in Harry Cobden.

For a young man riding in the biggest race of his life so far, Cobden was notably cool and delivered Old Guard at the right moment. His new rating of 157 will put him on the premises in Grade 1 company, acknowledging it will probably take further improvement for him to win such a race. For instance, the five day declarations for the Stanjames.com Fighting Fifth include five horses with higher ratings.

The Sunday card started with a terrific set-to in the opening novice hurdle between the hard pulling but gradually learning Altior and Maputo. It could have gone either way but Altior got on top near the line. Sadly, Maputo was lame afterwards and seems unlikely to reappear.

Unlike Old Guard, Saturday’s Haydock winner Irving holds a five day entry for the aforementioned Fighting Fifth. The Nicky Henderson-yard has only Top Notch entered and Willie Mullins has Arctic Fire (a victim of Irving in the race last year) and Wicklow Brave, who would be the form horses were either to travel over.

With Cheltenham’s International mentioned as a possible next target for Old Guard, just how far could he go? A glance at Brampour’s record might offer a clue. It shows that Derham rode him to finish seventh in Rock On Ruby’s Champion Hurdle. The pairing started at 50/1 that day, which amply demonstrates the strides that Old Guard still needs to make to become a serious challenger for the Blue Riband event.