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Thread: Daily picks.

  1. #21
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    Bad day and wasn't any better at wolves either,presume the ground was to quick for the ponte runners seeing where carrowbeg finished so i will still follow that formline for the time being.

    At swell 7.40.

    Master of song time was ok considering the track wasn't riding that quick and the field was spread eagled i like dubai gem in the same race as well same form through amtired so i've backed the pair and rev fcast.

    8.10 So is she and golden creek have the quickest times at the track so i'm hoping its not riding slow as so is shes run behind fantasy fry was quite decent for the grade.Golden creek beat queen of cash now rated 77 in a decent time for a 2 yr old race and for the track,big drop in grade from last handicap run.I've backed the pair and rev fcast also


    8.40 The horse with some of the faster times merrion tiger looks out of form,but two improvers in the race light the city and dr finley have vey little sperating them from July last year.Dr finley has a nine pound pull for just over 5ls so have backed the pair again and a small rev fcast.

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  3. #22
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    6.20 Kempton Exceedingly bold 18/1 boyles

    Don't quite understand why exceedingly bold is 18/1 in this race so i've backed it ew but i am going to see if i can get a trdae out of this as 18/1
    is a hige price in this race.The horse has two runs over c/d and both of those are the fastest in the race a 4th behind double carpet in february only beaten 1 1/2ls and having 8/1 shot abriachan behind in todays race.
    That was off a mark of 70 today races off 65 and 3 pound off with matthew lawson and 7 pound better off with abriachan,a 6th of 10 behind perfect point although beaten 5ls in a very fast time in what was a better race than todays certainly doesn't warrant it being an 18/1 shot.The reason its 18/1 is it was last at chepstow and at that price its worth throwing some coppers at as could easily be backed.Dires day racing and was'nt going to do much just thought this stuck out.Will be very surprised if that 18/1 lasts to long threw the day.

  4. #23
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    Through the day, didn't last twenty mins!!!

  5. #24
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    sp 7s which is roughly what it shouldv'e been,out at 11.5 hope it didn't go lower as crashed on me 2 bmins before the off!!

  6. #25
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    Ran today at donny and the time of the race compared favourably with the two 7f handicaps,firebeams maiden was run in 1m26.06 exactly the same time as the handicap won by 79 rated lord aeryn and the following handicap won by king of eden 1m25.91.Firebeam was given a lovely introduction by fallon,one crack and allowed to come home without being punished,with improvement to come and looking at the times firebeam looks a mid 80's horse already,so for the near future a maiden should be a formality and will be interesting to see how much it actually improves.Ran at swell and very disappointing but was no value and with it getting a mark back on turf could be exceptionally well handicapped.

    On a mark of 85 yet looks on a par in the mid eighties with the older horses,a decent race tomorrow but 3/1 ew with ppower bet to nothing will definitely be winning more races.

    4.20 firebeam 3/1 ppower.
    Last edited by gigilo; 7th July 2011 at 9:01 PM.

  7. #26
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    york 5.30 pavershooz 12/1 boyles.

  8. #27
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    Pavershooz maybe backed today and there are a couple of reasons to back this up,the horses hasn't run since may but all its best form and wins have been in june/july.This has obviously been deliberate the break,noel wilson managed to get hypnosis to win after two years at donny last week and similar to pavershooz was tumbling down the weights.The trainers had 2 out of hois last nine runners win and a place and perhaps more significantly the jockey.Brian toomey has a really good strike rate for a jock that doesn't get many rides and showing over 30 profit on total rides i don't usually bother with stats and this just means they seem to be trying with this today and i can see a gamble.Toomey had the 6 rides on the flat thise season and already one winner i think he's in profir for nearly every trainer he's ridden for which seems quite incredible so at least points to it trying as opposed to one of its rides this season.

    Pavershooz 12/1 boyles ew and to trade.

  9. #28
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    Hmmmm..........statistics and damned lies.

    Brian Toomey two winners from 23 rides on the flat in the last five seasons.

    During that period he has ridden for 21 different trainers, he rode a winner for Laura Mongan during the 2008 season and won for Kevin Ryan this season. He is in profit for those two but not for the rest.

    Many more rides over jumps in the same period; 28 wins from 285 runners and he is in profit for 12 trainers, and many, many more for whom he is in the red.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  10. #29
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    I leave stats to the number crunchers who think they can win by using stats,i never use them just saw brian toomey thought unusal booking clicked on his name came up with this over the last 12 months.Thats all i was looking for someone who can ride in comparison to other jocks in the race over the last 12 months.

    Last 12 Months Stats
    Course Type Runners Wins Places Win Prize Strike Rate P/L to 1 Stake
    Flat (Turf) 6 1 0 2,590 16.67% 2.00
    Flat (All Weather) 2 0 0 0.00% -2.00
    National Hunt Flat 16 2 5 3,322 12.50% -2.00
    Hurdles 83 9 15 18,177 10.84% 43.03
    Chases 9 0 0 0.00% -9.00
    TOTAL 116 12 20 24,089 10.34% 32.03

  11. #30
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    Ascot 4.0 dorback 7/1 and oil strike 11/1 boyles.

    Dorback was one of the biggest eyecathchers of the season behind novellen lad switched three or four times looked the best horse in the race in what was a very competitive affair.Next time out completely flat maybe a dodgepot but this this is a weaker race than that and if repeats that run and gets the breaks would be the most likely winner.
    Oilstrike was in that race also he was also stopped and wouldv'e been a lot closer and although not as good a run as dorback that run would still give him a big chance as this race is weaker.

  12. #31
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    Think that showed how far wrong the handicapper got firebeam ,it was minimum of mid eighties with the older horses on debut run!!

  13. #32
    Senior Member icebreaker's Avatar
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    Two excellent calls with Firebeam and Pavershooz, Mr Gigilo.
    Very well done, sir.

  14. #33
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    2.40 liecester

    Lightning cloud 7/4 vc,365
    Big noise 12/1 hills ew and to trade.

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    If the times are to be believed fom ascot then the race won by lightning cloud was very quick there only 1.41 slower than standard as opposed to the earlier sprint won by kanaf in the older sprint handicap.The 6f race was 1.34 above standard kanaf rated 89 tomorrow lightning clouds off 80 against the older horses top rated big noise is off 80.
    Big noise was a non runner i put it on here when entered at liecester,dr scargill seems to save these races at liecester for big noise,started the season on 87 now on 80.The handicap is open to horses rated 61-80 so its the first time the horse has been able to run in this low a handicap since august 2007.Last time out at newmarket eased but only beaten 3 1/2ls on ground that was deteriorating and couldv'e finished a lot closer,tomorrows c/d record is first off 89 in the month of july and last season 4th of 90 beaten 4 1/2ls.If the horse reacts well to first time pieces,looks the danger to the favourite and 12/1 would be a big price in a race where a few look underpriced.Tom durcan although not one of my fav jocks tbh has won and been second on it as well.
    Last edited by gigilo; 13th July 2011 at 8:17 PM.

  16. #35
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    6.50 bath reflessione 16/1 s.james to trade.

    Lowest ever mark for reflessione(65)on turf, yet the last time he ran on the flat was here last september off 70 in a similar race when second to barons spy off 70.He finished ahead off compton spirit in that race yet comptons priced up at 6s and reflessione is even better off in the weights,also a second over the same c/d to sometsuke shows the c/d suits.He also on that occasion finished infront of kylallachy storm by 21/2ls today priced at 4s.In pieces today which he's also won in looks miles over priced on those runs and i will be surprised if there isn't money for him.I may even have a little win as well,but mainly to trade,it's more an 8/1 shot and everything looks poorly handicapped in the race as well.
    Last edited by gigilo; 14th July 2011 at 1:12 PM.

  17. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    2.40 liecester

    Lightning cloud 7/4 vc,365
    Big noise 12/1 hills ew and to trade.
    1ts & 2nd 11/10 & 7/1 well done

  18. #37
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    Not a bad days work,chucked in the fcast for good measure as well and traded out at 8s!!!!They stood out a mile,will have to keep an eye on that ascot run as the time was quick.

  19. #38
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    Reflessione sp 9s out at 12s.

  20. #39
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    3.10 wannabe king 16/1 sporting bet.

    Nothing much stands out for me today so small bet on wannabe king.
    Looked unlucky at york stuck out the back going well and although beaten 7ls with a run and not eased wouldv'e been a couple of lengths behind dance and dance.Thats makes the 16s to big on that run should be nearer 12s especially when the previous run to that at sandown had next time winners julieanas winning the hunt cup,dunn'o and directorship behind.I think its more likely one of the unexposed ones will win but theres 3/4 so just had a small bet on this.
    Last edited by gigilo; 16th July 2011 at 12:46 PM.

  21. #40
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    8.40 pegasus bay. 7/1 ppower

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