the birchwood form just gets better..shala just won at newmarket..and beaverbrook at chester..birchwood will win the coventry imoOriginally Posted by EC1
the birchwood form just gets better..shala just won at newmarket..and beaverbrook at chester..birchwood will win the coventry imo
Lovely stuff that's 16/1 and 10/30 this season and an unlucky second!!!
And a little double with the peacock!!!!
4th, 5th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st
Nottingham Result
31 May 2015
2:15 » PHS WORKPLACE CONSUMABLES EBF MAIDEN STAKES
(Class 5) (2yo) (5f13y) 5f Good To Soft
£3,881.40, £1,155.00, £577.20, £288.6
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 8 Dhahmaan (IRE) 3/1 2 9-2 Marco Botti — * *
Marc Monaghan3
2 3 ¾ Ajaya 2/1F 2 9-5 William Haggas — * *
Pat Cosgrave
« 3 4 4 Kyllukey 7/1 2 9-5 Charles Hills — * *
Steve Drowne
4 6 1½ Sandahl (IRE) 7/1 2 9-5 Ralph Beckett — * *
Richard Kingscote
5 10 ¾ Adham (IRE) 6/1 2 9-5 James Tate — * *
Luke Morris
6 2 3½ Wilsons Ruby (IRE) 8/1 2 9-5 Brian Ellison — * *
Tom Eaves
« 7 7 2¼ Memyselfie (IRE) 100/1 2 9-0 Derek Shaw — * *
Renato Souza
8 9 3 Lady Joanna Vassa (IRE) 20/1 2 9-0 Richard Guest — * *
Jason Hart
« 9 5 ½ Captain Gerald 100/1 2 8-12 John Ryan — * *
Eva Moscrop7
« 10 11 ½ Tutill 100/1 2 8-7 Michael Easterby — * *
Nathan Evans7
« 11 1 1¼ Pink Ice 100/1 2 9-0 Michael Easterby — * *
Paul Mulrennan
11 ran TIME 1m 0.96s (slow by 2.66s)
Dhahmaan
Ajaya
Mubtaghaa won this lasty year for haggas 3rd in Windsor castle,always like to look out for some of these maidens at notts as some nice horses get overlooked and the winner and runner up look well above average,first 2yr old winner for marco botti this season and bred to get a lot further was really impressive to pick up from off the pace and winning very easily actually looked beter class than these.Similarly the runner up the haggas runner the fact he aimed at this race maybe a pointer to it being a similar ability to mubtagha and the form looks rock solid with kyllukey 4ls back with experience,at ascot kyllukey was only just behind beaverbrook and king of rooks second fav for the Coventry,again this shows the weakness of the form of 2yr olds but also shows how races and horses like this could get very underestimated.The winning time was also backed up by the progressive double up winning the latter older handicap off 88,the time only .50 quicker but the maiden runners carrying more weight,as good as most of the times seen this season with loads of improvement to come,i'd be looking for prices ion these two especially the winner was very impressive I'd be surprised if not both seen at ascot and would be worth a bet at juicy prices as undoubtedly this maiden will be underestimated...
4 tomorrow
Bushcraft
Jersey Cream
Roccos Delight
Venus Marina (gets half of the conditions noted - straight 7f but no slow ground)
Had biggest win in 20 years yesterday,so little chance iof me getting any bets on for the foreseeable future these shorteners to me so slight value on the place and pool house will either hack up or be out of frame could do some sort of ew multiples
Diamond blaise 11/4 betfairsportsbook
My major 9/2 365/betfairsportsbook
No delusion 4/1 betfairsportsbook
Pool house evens ppower
Roccos delight 3/1 ppower/nbetfairsportsbook/hills
Black truffle 9/4 betfairsportsbook/2/1 365
Also Queen catrine 4/1 lads as long as grounds on fast side can't see this going off bigger than 5/2 there's even a chance could go off fav although has been disappointing,ran well last time out on sioft ground...
ozgood (31st May 2015)
Congratulations, gigolo.
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
11/2 racebets for Queen mary 5/1 ppower/betfairsportsbook not much of a price but at least she goes on anygoing on the day!
Birchwood available at 13/8 today, looks a good price to me. Any thoughts EC?
interesting choice of race Benny..a tie in with Round Two as well through argentero...interesting test for the ratings...wouldn't be lumping on at that price though tbh...the Newbury ratings were a bit blighted by wind...i just hope it wins or i'll have to scrap that day
Round Two form is solid..i'm not convinced Birchwood liked the ground..got a fast ground scratchy action..a watching brief..the race time was 8 seconds slower than standard..very slow ground..i assume its been raining all afternoon
Last edited by EC1; 1st June 2015 at 4:42 PM.
KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!You won't get the NAPS getting beat
well done gigolo. hopefully the two tonight come in or I'm out of cash from this experiment with your to follows!
I never backed any of them 75% of them aren't going to be bets purely on price then ground etc,horses like jersey cream I backed ar 12s last time out was 7/4 probably never be a bet again there was zilch value on todays runners even if they won and venus marina was running on wrong ground,complete opposite of ground its ever run well on...
lol. enjoy your thread then.
Summary of "the experiment".
27 bets. 6 winners. to a £10 level stake -£73.
Perhaps it would have done better if you'd only backed the winners.
Last edited by simmo; 1st June 2015 at 7:12 PM.
I'm intrigued by how you narrow them down to just the 25% - obviously, unless you're a complete Walter Mitty, you are making money off these. But you appear to be the only one.
As an example to show us how to make the decision about what's a bet and what isn't - how about Flight Risk which won at 50/1 a few weeks ago. You highlighted it in September with the comments that you'd like to see him in listed contests on the a.w. over 6f. How did you come to the decision to back him at 50/1 over 7f on Yielding turf, conditions which he had previously been well beaten under? Was it purely a price thing?
That sort of thing was probably what made me assume that you simply backed everything just in case - but you're telling me that's not the case and now I'm confused and need some clarification about your selection processes. (Assuming of course that this thread isn't just an ego-trip).
Fella I've been posting on here for 5 years the threads got 360,000 views that's because it's been so successful it original started off as a bets thread surely you must have looked before, I used to put the prices up the night before the threads showing probably a couple of thousand points profit on the bets I put up moving the markets as I did today with the queen catrine bet,only bet put on here since the time mentioned and hacks up at 9/4.Putting up all that information was giving far to much away regarding books so fior the last 3 seasons been putting the to follows up,its not a list of bets but information and guide most of the time they won;'t be bets because a high % of the thi9ngs I note are times etc which get reflected in the market on next runs,unless they've got a huge write up and 10 pound in hand I'm not in the habit of backing lots of short prices.
I do the form for every single race on every single card and price them up and havn't missed a race since the beginning of the season,why you've started to have a niggle after I've been on here 5 years and put up 100s of winning bets with prices I don't know I wondered why you'd started posting on here.
I get dozens of emails about the to follows some have kept the last 3 seasons,in actual fact from the beginning of the year the to follows are 100+ points backing every single thing on it,thats according to someone elses spreadsheet I'm not even interested if iuts showing a profit I wouldn't expect it to be it's simply about showing up the times form and explanatioj of form in detail/.
By the way Buscrafts just won,different gear aren't theyand no I didn't back it as the race was so competitive but nice srtiill to be proven right,some sort of performance eh!!
.
I'm not sure why you would see someone asking a valid question as "niggling" (and not answer the question).
Let's hope Roccos comes in too.
splendid stuff - first day of profit since I've been looking in.
now to the questions about how you narrow them down......
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