Well done on here fellas. I missed all the fun, but it's good to see you guys filling your satchels in readiness for March.
Well done on here fellas. I missed all the fun, but it's good to see you guys filling your satchels in readiness for March.
Cheers Paul! I was a bit dissapointed with my fancies today but the show must go on! I don't think I can make Festival this year, but might book tickets for The Bet Victor or one of quieter days at Cheltenham early next season. I owe you a pint BTW!
Last edited by Marb; 23rd January 2018 at 7:58 PM.
Here's my notes for tomorrow. Exeter has to pass an 8AM inspection.
Exeter
1:40 Hope Wishes could run well but is coming back from an absense. The horse I really want for win purposes is UNDISPUTED. Overall profile is ultras consistent, she put in a bad run last time but perhaps the trip was too far. She steps down quite considerably in trip here. This seems to make a lot of sense so I reckon she'll go very well.
4/1
2:50 I will take an each-way chance with FINDUSATGORCAMBE, who I know has questions to answer about whether it'll handle ground (and trip), but seems on a very workable/fair mark. The last win was over 3 miles +. This is around a mile shorter. I'd certainly hope the jockey makes use of the fact the horse stays much further and tries to go-on from the front, really making use of that stamina. The ground is an unknown, but hopefully the drop in trip might mitigate how well he performs on it.
16/1
4:25 FiINNEGAN'S GARDEN looks the bet off the bottom weight and unlike the other horse I mentioned, Finnegan's Garden will definitely like ground. Trainer Zoe Davidson had a winner today. Stable is in decent form.
10/1
Each Way Patent for me.
Last edited by Marb; 23rd January 2018 at 8:36 PM.
Calling Out (3.10L) has a better chance than his market position (5/6) suggests.
Lto, in a better race than this, he had to be switched twice in the closing stages and lost valuable momentum when Pactolus leaned on him and held him in.
Whilst he'd never have caught the Haggas hotpot, with a clear passage - imo - he would comfortably have beaten the 2 others that finished in front of him.
Th O/H has seen fit to drop him 2lbs for that unfortunate run, and the current 11/2 is just too big.
Marb (24th January 2018)
Marb (25th January 2018)
Hakam (7.00) showed improvement for the first-time hood latest - considering it was his first try at 5f.
Returns to 6f today, and with the hood refitted, ought to go one better. There should be enough pace to give him he tow he needs.
Current 7/2 will do nicely.
Two great cards today and I'm nicely involved.
At Donny I've done Adrien Du Pont in the novice chase. I though he ran well enough his last two starts against high class opponents at the wrong trip for him. Back down to two miles Sceau Royal is obv gonna be hard to beat but he's too big at 5s or 11/2.
At Cheltenham by bets are:
Coo Star Sivola at 6s and 9/2 for the handicap chase. This horse has been on my tracker since his juvvie days and he's well handicapped on all known form
Singlefarmpayment and American in the Cotswold. I love BDM but he should be taken on at his price and the race is choc full of horses who aren't Cheltenham types.
SFP has loads to find on form but 33/1 (and a bit of 40 on the machine) is value. I will top up nearer the off when 8 runners is guaranteed. American is a slight reach but a big field Hennessy on his first start in open company first time out was a big ask and this smaller field will suit.
Finian's Oscar in the Cleeve. I can't resist 7/2 about this horse. He has a massive engine and my only worry is Tizzard really. Oppo wise I respect Beer Goggles (have him in a protection double with Presenting Percy from the other day) and The World's End but Wholestone I don't see as a three miler on soft ground in graded company. I think Agrapart will get too far behind.
I'm also timidly on Finians Oscar for this. Merely to try and repay the few quid and a bit more than I've lost on him AP for Cheltenham.
I'm beginning to believe the horse isn't the problem. I honestly think he's been over raced, still a young horse learning his craft, and they've put him in some damn tough races, and a lot of them. I just feel they could have nursed him a bit more.
With that ground I'm really tempted to go with Bristol De Mai. A lot worse than I thought.
What an impressive performance from Frodon and another superbly cool ride from Bryony Frost .
Just nicked Perfect Candidate ew at 50/1. Might be the only other grinder in the race.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I thankfully didn't, Bristol Really can't jump. No chance in the Gold Cup. I was impressed with American and will probably be better off for that run. Take nothing away from the winner, but that's his National mark smashed, Gold Cup for him.
Sweet Jesus. A Finians Oscar win is worth 4 figures for me now having had 3 winners in the lucky 15.
My love hate relationship with this horse goes on.
Stellar Surprise(6.30) is a chancy bet, but worth the risk at a general 6/1.
Thing is she needs dropping in, to arrrive n the dying strides and this is what the trainer said after her recent c/d win:
The evidence is clearly there on the replay, as is it for her apparently disappointing run at Kempton subsequently, where she raced the whole way on the outside of the field, and never got the cover she patently needs.Stellar Surprise doesn't like being in front and has pulled up again today. I'm going to have to do something to combat that. She has the ability, but slams the brakes on when she gets there. There are a few of these races on the AW for her and hopefully we'll run on her at black-type level again come the summer - Stuart Williams, trainer.
You pays your money, and you takes your chance - or not.
I'm having a sporting bet on Streets Of Promise in Herefords 3:40. A decent horse who's been dropped 6 pound in the handicap so I'm thinking the handicapper has started to give him a real chance.
Last edited by Marb; 29th January 2018 at 1:54 PM.
They all count! Good shout
Leicester 3:25...
DYLANSEOGHAN - 16/1 Betfred & Totesport. Win and Place
DYLANSEOGHAN last couple of form figures are not very inspiring. They probably mask the fact that its chase career is still a work-in-progress. He ran a fine race when second to subsequent winner Dontminddboys here at Leicester in December. The third horse that day, trained by Olly Murphy called More Than luck, has won since, now rated 114, (which is a twenty pound higher mark than the one Dylanseoghan runs off). So I'm giving Dylan's another chance. I reckon it's very well handicapped on 94. I'm not convinced about the others.
Last edited by Marb; 30th January 2018 at 6:31 PM.