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Thread: What are you backing Today?

  1. #11921
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    Thanks guys, broken clock is right twice a day and all that. Smashed the winnings on the latest selection on the excellent NBA thread.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

  2. #11922
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    2.00 royal mizar. best odds now 7/2
    4.10 invincible ridge. best odds now 9/1

  3. #11923
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    Had a go on Goldmadchen in the next. Won this last year and jock is a massive positive.

  4. #11924
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    good call Benny

    those amateur races are a nightmare..wish i hadn't bothered in the first..no way do horses get given a decent shot in them from 80% of the riders..which you can expect..i ought to know better than dabble with them

  5. #11925
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    I quite like them. Same with hunter chases - the disparity between the best and worst riders is massive, so if you know which is which you can have an edge.

  6. #11926
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    What do you aw lads think of the ride on Jay Bee Blue just then? Strangled out of the gates, hacking all over them but never put in the race. I wonder if connections missed the fancy prices and decided to wait for another day. One for the notebook methinks.

  7. #11927
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    Three for Ludlow.

    2:45 Rascal (NAP) has improved since Dan Skelton has applied cheekpieces
    Southwell form when he hacked up end of 2014 would be good enough.
    However, don't dismiss the form of his last run at Ascot lightly.
    The 2nd and 3rd that day have both won since and franked the form really well.
    A three furlong shorter test tomorrow and Rascal looks better than everything else in the race.


    3:15 Roll The Dice (NB) drops in class and this can make all the difference.
    He's ran consistently well all season without getting his neck in front.
    Ludlow looks his best chance of doing that as he's won here before.
    Looking at his last run behind Firebird Flyer, he was well beaten by Firebird Flyer but Firebird Flyer is rated a stone higher than anything Roll The Dice will come across today.
    Roll The Dice will take some beating.


    4:15 This see's the return of hurdler Jolly Rodger (E/W) after a near 500 day absense.
    He won six hurdle races on the bounce three years ago, at different tracks with different ground conditions, ranging from class 5 to class 3 grade. He showed precious little in his final few outings for Tony Carroll at the end of 2013, but given he's won twice before first time out, he might be worth a bet now he's changed hands to in-form Bernard Llewellyn (who did me a good turn last week! ).
    Rated a career high of 133 after those successive wins, 115 looks a fair enough place to kick off his career again against this lot.

    Marble
    Last edited by marbler; 18th February 2015 at 8:40 AM.

  8. #11928
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    5.10

    ANNIVERSAIRE can win dropped back to 8.6f..is a 60 horse on that run behind naval..win + place done 11.4..2.74

  9. #11929
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    if they had just gone a stride quicker would have eaten em..place anyway

  10. #11930
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    V unlucky there EC..........profits a profit......I won 17p today and I'm happy dreadful racing
    Formely Fist of Fury

  11. #11931
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    V unlucky there EC..........profits a profit......I won 17p today and I'm happy dreadful racing
    aye..its an arse of a game sometimes....19p up here

  12. #11932
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    Unlucky EC, will win when it gets a decent pace. Will probably be overbet now though as an unlucky loser!

  13. #11933
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    Off to the beach tomorrow so just having one bet.

    Robbie is a horse I like but the handicapper put him up 5lbs after Donnie.

    That is simply too much and I can't see him winning off that mark

    I reckon that leaves the door wide open for the 14yo Oscar Time to win yet again

    Jonjo sends Burton Port and he almost pulled of a miracle with him in the Whitbread
    but last time out the horse took the pish out of Richie McLernon and wouldn't go a yard for him
    AP might do a lot better but I have severe doubts and even he might struggle to get this horse to concentrate on the job.

    The race Reaping Reward won at Musselburgh wasn't a bad race it was a dreadful race.

    Aechen has 2 speed dead slow and stop and the rest won't have Sam Waley-Cohen losing any sleep tonight

    The 6lbs Oscar Time get from Robbie should be more than enough to see him coast home on his way to another run in the National.

    Oscar Time 4/1 with Betfair looks to have only one danger AP McCoy's magic
    Formely Fist of Fury

  14. #11934
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Off to the beach tomorrow so just having one bet.

    Robbie is a horse I like but the handicapper put him up 5lbs after Donnie.

    That is simply too much and I can't see him winning off that mark

    I reckon that leaves the door wide open for the 14yo Oscar Time to win yet again

    Jonjo sends Burton Port and he almost pulled of a miracle with him in the Whitbread
    but last time out the horse took the pish out of Richie McLernon and wouldn't go a yard for him
    AP might do a lot better but I have severe doubts and even he might struggle to get this horse to concentrate on the job.

    The race Reaping Reward won at Musselburgh wasn't a bad race it was a dreadful race.

    Aechen has 2 speed dead slow and stop and the rest won't have Sam Waley-Cohen losing any sleep tonight

    The 6lbs Oscar Time get from Robbie should be more than enough to see him coast home on his way to another run in the National.

    Oscar Time 4/1 with Betfair looks to have only one danger AP McCoy's magic
    Was just about to post a similar thing Tanlic. Oscar Time may be 14 but arguably has come back as good as ever with a PTP victory, 2 Hunter chase wins and Beecher triumph this season. He also appeared to be enjoying himself when he UR in his other start, at Cheltenham.

    He has to give a fair bit of weight to Venetia's at the bottom but he's been carrying 12st+ in some of his victories so the 11st 6lb with SWC's 3lb claim shouldn't bother him at all.

    Conditions of the race are perfect for him and while the 4s have gone you can still get 10/3 as he's slightly on the drift this morning having come in overnight.

  15. #11935
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    Venetia Williams horse might not be a great threat...last 14 days her horses are 0/32....15 of them were 6/1 or less..a few were fav..one odds on

  16. #11936
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    I fancy Oscar Time too, sorry lads!

    EC - could I ask what you think of Boboli Gardens at Lingfield today. I fancy it quite strongly but am slightly concerned about drop back in trip. It's also up to class 6 having won class 7s. Looks on the upgrade and potentially ahead of its mark though.

  17. #11937
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    Quote Originally Posted by BennyB View Post
    I fancy Oscar Time too, sorry lads!

    EC - could I ask what you think of Boboli Gardens at Lingfield today. I fancy it quite strongly but am slightly concerned about drop back in trip. It's also up to class 6 having won class 7s. Looks on the upgrade and potentially ahead of its mark though.
    Last time out it ran about 8lb above its mark..so looks like capable of winning off 64..is now up to 62

    so if it wins today will go above what the trainer wants it too imo..so it makes you wonder if they have dropped it back to stop that happening..seems to need the 7f and a trappy 6f here doesn't look ideal.

    I don't think its wanted today..there are plenty of 7f races so why would you drop it back to a fast 6f is the question.

    trying to make sense of how trainers place horses on the AW is a black art really..look at Black Dave..wtf have they been doing there for instance?

    I personally wouldn't back it and hope i'm right..might lose next time as well to knock a couple of lbs off..then back to 7f with 4 or 5lb still in hand.

    Lets say they ran it over 7f today..it might win with the couple lb it has in hand,,but if it got beat into 2nd then might go up for that..so you are then fighting to knock 5lb off over the next 3 or 4 runs to get back to having that much in hand...so you might not get a win for 5 runs if you do that

    its smarter to lose a couple and then have the 4 or 5 in hand and win again in two races time

    thats what i'd do if i trained it anyway
    Last edited by EC1; 18th February 2015 at 12:16 PM.

  18. #11938
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    Quote Originally Posted by EC1 View Post
    Last time out it ran about 8lb above its mark..so looks like capable of winning off 64..is now up to 62

    so if it wins today will go above what the trainer wants it too imo..so it makes you wonder if they have dropped it back to stop that happening..seems to need the 7f and a trappy 6f here doesn't look ideal.

    I don't think its wanted today..there are plenty of 7f races so why would you drop it back to a fast 6f is the question.

    trying to make sense of how trainers place horses on the AW is a black art really..look at Black Dave..wtf have they been doing there for instance?

    I personally wouldn't back it and hope i'm right..might lose next time as well to knock a couple of lbs off..then back to 7f with 4 or 5lb still in hand.

    Lets say they ran it over 7f today..it might win with the couple lb it has in hand,,but if it got beat into 2nd then might go up for that..so you are then fighting to knock 5lb off over the next 3 or 4 runs to get back to having that much in hand...so you might not get a win for 5 runs if you do that

    its smarter to lose a couple and then have the 4 or 5 in hand and win again in two races time

    thats what i'd do if i trained it anyway
    Nice reasoning. SPOWARTICUS it is then

  19. #11939
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    I get Spowarticus as being weighted to best now Ricko...probably hose up

    Hoping for better than placings with these..some are starting to look like over the cliff jobs..but just when you think you have overrated them they win...so sticking with the ratings i get these today

    2.30 Lingfield

    Ghost Train +7..can win off this mark..poorly drawn here but Baker booked after Hayley been riding it. Best price now 7/1. win+place

    3.05 Lingfield

    Two of these have been on my radar for a while and MM has been a money spinner..i've got Steady Major 13lb superior to Miss Minuty so should have no issue giving it 5lb..won't get rich at the price but should take this comfy.

    3.35 Lingfield

    Birkdale Boy +6..noted on 12 Jan...step up to 7f is a plus and this one can win off this mark..thrown into a mdn with no chance last time to throw us off the scent possibly. Best price 5/1. win+place.

    5.05 Lingfield

    Interesting hcap..Elle Shade ran to a 73 FTO so can be expected to improve probably..so 71 is decent mark..but i've got Sample being very well in here on its last run where they went slow but the late sectional shows this one is capable of winning off of 75..only runs off 66 here...step up in trip could show her real level. Might be an over rate by me but with Elle Shad being so short I'll gamble on my figures being right. So Sample is the pick. Best price 11/2. win+place.

    7.10 Kempton

    Salvatore Fury can win off this mark based on 16 dec run. Best Price 6/1. win+place

    7.40 Kempton

    Two ahead of their marks here are Roy Rocket + Berwin ..both noted in the same race [26 nov].

    Roy Rocket was given a strange race last time when i put it up on here..took to back of field..the pace then slowed and he had a tough task after that..ran very well.

    Backing both of these win+place..best odds Roy Rocket 11/1 & Berwin 16/1
    Last edited by EC1; 18th February 2015 at 1:45 PM.

  20. #11940
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    Thanks guys. Ended up swerving BG and backing Spowarticus each way, so no harm done! Will look out for BG when stepped back up to 7f.

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