Unlucky EC. Had a crack at Salvatore Fury in the last.
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Unlucky EC. Had a crack at Salvatore Fury in the last.
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JOCKEY WINS–RUNS 2NDS 3RDS 4THS WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE £1 STAKE
William Twiston-Davies 18–257 7% 36 42 40 £87,806 £216,837 -126.88
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
Price on scrutiny today at Doncaster is tempting me in the 1535. Although the favourite Knavesmire looks like it could be a very good horse it has my old nemesis Spencer on board who hasn't been riding well recently as we are all well aware! So I am going to take it on with a bit of guesswork. Scrutiny is out of Aqlaam, a stallion that out of the last 4 weeks has had 19 runners, 5 wins over 7-12f. Dam has had a few winners but over no further than 7f. Scrutiny beat G Force over 6f in it's maiden by 1 1/2 lengths, that horse went on to win a 5 furlong race of 87 and not get beaten far off 103. Scrutiny got smashed in it's first run this year, followed by another pasting over 7f. Off 85 today I think the horse is better than that rating and should have a few pounds in hand, I am just hoping for a turn in fortunes and with better ground means it will get the distance. Not a big bet but will do reverse forecast with the favourite also.
A horse I will follow anyway particularly when running over shorter if it doesn't get the distance today.
Les Gar Gan 3.00 Don. has lowered sights and is down in the weights. Could be the day. Have taken 12/1 and there appears to be some support this morning.
Lily Rules (7.10 Nc) showed enough to win this when 2nd in the Musidora, and though the favourite was unlucky lto, she has more than 3l to find on a direct line through Queen Of Ice.
Her subsequent Oaks run can be ignored, as she hung all over the place down the Epsom straight.
I'm also on Loud for Mark Johnston, dropped in class today, lower mark and just looks like a must win at a decent price.
Little each way on Spruzzo at Mussleborough. Won the race two years ago off the same mark, been off for 18 months, couple of prep runs so not sure what state he will be in but will have bene primed for this.
5.40 Yarmouth
Anjim..at 2.8 ..could go evens this one or less imo
half brother to the fugue racing off 65 in a 0-70...has two other entries after today and looks a sequence runner from Prescott
other bet is Award in the 4.10
I think I will be keeping an eye out for scrutiny over shorter!!! That was a right off.
Think I should stick to the sticks this year!
Already mentioned Angel Gabrial earlier in the week. Worried he might get trapped in from his draw but I have a decent price and I think he's well ahead of the handicapper.
Also on Starlight Serenade in the last at headquarters. She's been on my tracker since her staying on fourth in a handicap at Donny earlier in the year and her win at Goodwood last month suggests she is still improving.
Australia look a certainty but I expect Fascinating Rock to run a much better race than he did at Epsom where he ran 2 stone below what he's capable of.
The obvious forecast is Australia/Kingston Hill but I think AOB will want to be putting on a show for the breeders and win by as far as he can.
Very often when you have an outstanding horse in a race the obvious danger gets taken off his feet becomes exhausted and gets picked up by a late finisher.
That could easily be Fascinating Rock who is usualy held up and comes pretty late on the scene.
Fascinating Rock at 6/1 without Australia looks a sporting bet
Sir Mark Prescott must be on a few cold lists having only 2 winners from 30 runners but it's a safe bet that very few were anywhere near peak fitness
He sends Big Thunder out without a previous run for the Northumberland Plate and you can bet your bottom dollar he'll be spot on for it.
He won over 14f as a 3yo so a year on he should get the trip ok. The ground is perfect for him and the harder they go the better his chances
Big Thunder 16/1 EW
John Gosden's Seagull looks the outstanding bet of the day at Newmarket and at odds against looks like something t get stuck into..
.
Seagull (Nap) 5/4 currently.
John Gosden runs Gatewood earlier in the day.
He's being opposed by Sheikhzayedroad in the market but I reckon he was flattered big time by his 2nd in the Brigadier.
Battalion was a big disappointment last time when he faded tamely behind Mount Athos and me be best left alone for the time being.
The rest lok up against it in this company
Gatewood around 4/1 with Betfair
Last edited by Tanlic; 28th June 2014 at 11:01 AM.
Formely Fist of Fury
I'm not convinced about the Chester form, Euro.
Fast ground for this race is a pleasant change. Oriental Fox might make the race fairly straightforward given his style of running and if he gets a soft lead he’ll be very hard to pass, so he’s worth a punt. Repeater’s claimer puts me off. Hanagan for Mullins catches the eye. Tropical Beat carried the cash a couple of times last season in big races but Tudhope goes elsewhere presumably for better chances although de Sousa isn’t a negative since he won the Wokingham on the second string. With serious doubts about those with good old form being able to recapture it, I’m going for a main bet on Van Percy. He showed improved form stepped back up in trip on fast ground at Newmarket and might improve again for this further step up. Probert rode him that day so Murphy’s allowance can be taken at face value to put him top of my figures. Big Thunder looks a possible plot. If so, the money will come for him. If not, what is the plan?
Illegitimi non carborundum
Windsor 4:10 I rated ASHPAN SAM running to 113 on my speed ratings last time out at Epsom. I can see him getting his own way in front again and has a good chance of going in again.
strong bet in the 1.35...Al Gomry
Good shout, sir.
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
cheers Col
Can't see past Saayerr in the Chipchase. Looks to have plenty in his favour and the form of his come back run has worked out well with 6f likely to suit better. Price looks too big.
I'm clever enough to ask the questions i'm too stupid to answer