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Thread: What are you backing Today?

  1. #7741
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    Top class Bolero.


    well done.

  2. #7742
    CPGagie
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    Lovely, Bolero. I looked earlier, but couldn't work out why you thought it would relish the conditions? Had you noted it's action previously? Great stuff anyway, well done.

  3. #7743
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    Cheers guys!

    (CPGagie: No, to be honest I certainly had not noticed the mare's action in previous races. She is very lightly-raced, but I did note on breeding she would stay every inch of today's distance, i.e. sire Flemensfirth (by Alleged) and damsire Bonny Scot (by Commanche Run, a son of Run The Gantlet out of a Shirley Heights mare), so her breeding is stamina-packed with dads and grandads who, without exception, showed a liking for cut in the ground, without it being too heavy. Heck, it's easy to be wise after the event, and I really do not mean to be, but you've got to have a bit of luck in this game sometimes, and today things worked out, for a change!).
    Last edited by Bolero; 21st October 2013 at 6:31 PM.

  4. #7744
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bolero View Post
    Cheers guys!

    (CPGagie: No, to be honest I certainly had not noticed the mare's action in previous races. She is very lightly-raced, but I did note on breeding she would stay every inch of today's distance, i.e. sire Flemensfirth (by Alleged) and damsire Bonny Scot (by Commanche Run, a son of Run The Gantlet out of a Shirley Heights mare), so her breeding is stamina-packed with dads and grandads who, without exception, showed a liking for cut in the ground, without it being too heavy. Heck, it's easy to be wise after the event, and I really do not mean to be, but you've got to have a bit of luck in this game sometimes, and today things worked out, for a change!).
    There was also a nice form line from the race where he pulled up behind xaacet - Just Cloudy was also pulled up in that race and Hopatina was running a better race than Just Cloudy and was 8lb better off today. The xaarcet race is proving useful as a few have come out and won including at least 3 that P.U.(including Just Cloudy) in the race - so not as big a surprise as the results look. I wouldn't have even spotted this is if it wasn't for the fact you posted Bolero - Thanks.
    Last edited by swedish chef; 21st October 2013 at 6:45 PM.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  5. #7745
    CPGagie
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    I see, breeding. I can only look at that with Flat racing, and I'm not even sure what I'm looking at then.

    You're right about hindsight. I was looking at Rambo Will (Windsor 5:00 winner) after the race. 3 runs in better class races at Windsor last year, dropped in class and down to 64. Arguably a better trip today in the conditions when looking how the races were run last year. Jock OK at course and gets on well with horse. The writing was on the wall, albeit, faintly, but it was there to see. As you say, it's easy after the event.

    You got in prior though, and thats what counts. Enjoy your night out.

  6. #7746
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bolero View Post
    take the missus out tonight! (Cheers SC!).
    Revels, Bolero?

  7. #7747
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    Quote Originally Posted by Relkeel View Post
    Revels, Bolero?
    Dreadful pun of the day award!

  8. #7748
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    Quote Originally Posted by Relkeel View Post
    Revels, Bolero?
    Relkeel. Actually, the evening unravelled very well! (Sorry, Benny ).
    Last edited by Bolero; 22nd October 2013 at 2:02 AM.

  9. #7749
    Senior Member MLMRob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bolero View Post
    Had a bit e/w at 20/1 on Hopatina in the 17:20 at Plumpton. The mare has not been out for 247-days but, if fit, could go well and will relish the soft-ground conditions

    Absolutely superb Bolero. Hoped you enjoyed your evening.

  10. #7750
    Senior Member MLMRob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    2.20 Long Lunch
    Looks a nice sort, well done Chef. Actually a good price as some of Longsdons have been overbet.

  11. #7751
    Senior Member MLMRob's Avatar
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    Some basic stats



    CARRAIG ROCK 5.10 EXETER
    Hughie Morrison is 4-6 in juvenile bumpers which includes 3-4 in this race.

    PROMISE YOU 2.50 YARMOUTH
    Saeed Bin Suroor is 4-8 with the 2yo progeny of Teofilio.

    SHERSTON 3.20 YARMOUTH
    In the last two years Mark Johnston has returned the following form figures in nurseries at Yarmouth; 3210114, including this race in 2011. Didn’t have a runner last year.

  12. #7752
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Kempton 6.10 Lady Horatio 40/1 small e/way - trainer 8wins from 54 2yo runners at track

    trainer says.
    LADY HORATIA
    Gr f Mount Nelson - Lady Xara.
    Unraced.
    "I think the world of her and will have a run towards the end of October. Might be better on the all weather rather than soft. I think she'll win this year."
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  13. #7753
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    If I were a betting man I would be having an interest in The Ducking Stool in the 4.20 Yarmouth, Shelley Birkett riding at Yarmouth this season has a strike rate of 8-33 (24%) at a level £1 stake profit of £30.25. She's also 3 wins from 5 starts on The Ducking Stool.

    2nd at 12 - 1
    Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 22nd October 2013 at 5:59 PM.
    "The owls are not what they seem"

  14. #7754
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    If I were a betting man I would be having an interest in The Ducking Stool in the 4.20 Yarmouth, Shelley Birkett riding at Yarmouth this season has a strike rate of 8-33 (24%) at a level £1 stake profit of £30.25. She's also 3 wins from 5 starts on The Ducking Stool.
    No Form only5th on todays conditions from a lower mark and Fav won LTO on heavy

  15. #7755
    Senior Member links781's Avatar
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    Kentfird Grey lady 2.40 5/4 in a match,really v Sonofvic.Kentford goes very well fresh and the ground won't inconvenience.I'd be surprised if it doesn't go in today.

  16. #7756
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    If I were a betting man I would be having an interest in The Ducking Stool in the 4.20 Yarmouth, Shelley Birkett riding at Yarmouth this season has a strike rate of 8-33 (24%) at a level £1 stake profit of £30.25. She's also 3 wins from 5 starts on The Ducking Stool.

    This is off Julia Feilden's Blog
    There's just a trio of runners this week, kicked off by Hamble and The Ducking Stool at Yarmouth tomorrow.
    Ducky has excelled herself this season with three wins, all at Yarmouth, but as a result is a bit high in the handicap. She surprised us last time by pulling out enough to win so you couldn't rule her out at her favourite track with soft ground in her favour.
    Hamble is another genuine horse and he too loves some give in the ground. He ran a blinder at Leicester last time and if he doesn't get too outpaced, he will be in the mix at the finish.

  17. #7757
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    Quote Originally Posted by MLMRob View Post
    This is off Julia Feilden's Blog
    There's just a trio of runners this week, kicked off by Hamble and The Ducking Stool at Yarmouth tomorrow.
    Ducky has excelled herself this season with three wins, all at Yarmouth, but as a result is a bit high in the handicap. She surprised us last time by pulling out enough to win so you couldn't rule her out at her favourite track with soft ground in her favour.
    Hamble is another genuine horse and he too loves some give in the ground. He ran a blinder at Leicester last time and if he doesn't get too outpaced, he will be in the mix at the finish.
    based on that info small ew double is in order
    Thanks Guys

  18. #7758
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Exeter 2.10 Hare In A Round 18/1 3pts e/way - apparently working well and schooled well over hurdles. Hopefully needed run L/T/O
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  19. #7759
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    Quote Originally Posted by Simpson Jersey View Post
    Rise to Glory has been gradually coming to hand in line with his decling h'cap mark and i feel he'll run well tonight.
    Has won twice since at 4/1 and 14/1, strange he raced over 10fs last time, but has won over 7fs before and with this draw might just hold on up the rail, Back/lay imo.
    Clumber Place would have a very good chance if coming anything like back to form, loves it soft and has run some of his best races in October and G Lee has a good record on her but dropped away quickly lto, might put it in a F/C with Caramelita and RTG.

  20. #7760
    CPGagie
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    YARM 16:20 RAAMZ 25/1 EW BOG

    It could be that it prefers right handed courses, BUT maybe it just needs soft ground, which it'll certainly get today.
    I've looked at her action on the replays and it hasn't looked comfortable on most occasions.

    The Sandown run wasn't too bad, but it didn't look totally happy on the ground then either, but ran better than most other occassions despite that. Ran a pretty decent race in GD-SFT at Hamilton over a trip perhaps on the short side (stayed on well after the line).
    Can possibly stay the longer trip now in this class, as did run OK in a NHF race at Huntingdon on it's second ever start in slow ground over 1M6F, which was perhaps too far (at the time anyway), though that was a terribly poor race.

    Trainer likes a win at Yarmouth, and todays Jockey has arguably got the best out of the horse to date (on faster ground than ideal). It apparently had a breathing problem LTO, but if you ignore that, and just look at the other turf runs, it may actually be progressive if given plenty of cut.

    Didn't seem too well suited to poly, possibly more suited to fibresand as an artificial surface. Seemed to travel adequatley enough on it, but perhaps found things happening too quickly, and faded as a result having been up there.

    I've had it in my notebook for a while as well, but have no notes on it. That probably means I was weaving through the form book late at night, and through some formlines decided it was worth keeping an eye on. Both the Hamilton and Sandown form has worked out relatively well, so suspect thats why I noted it.

    So, maybe a right handed course brings out the best, or soft ground will, or maybe both. I'm going to have a small EW dabble at tasty odds anyway, in the hope that it much prefers to plod on through the mud. I'm not great when it comes to breeding, but there seems to be plenty of soft and heavy form in there as well.

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