Arc Still Up In The Air

[SteveM]

With all the toings and froings in the Arc market, some definitely in and then probably out, I have been trying to keep my powder dry and wait for the supplementary stage on Thursday. From memory owners have to stump up something like 60,000 euros to get in.

I hope that Quiff (for Khalid Abdulla) joins North Light from Stoute’s yard.

Also interesting that Ballydoyle only have Acropolis in the race. I can’t imagine that they believe he is good enough to run in his own right, so he must have been left in as a pacemaker for something they have decided they could supplement. I suppose Brian Boru, Powerscourt or Tycoon are the most likely contenders.

The race must shape up by the end of the week.

[Irish Stamp]

Think Powerscourt is the most likely of those.

[Irish Stamp]

oops, after what Aidan's said on the Mingun thread perhaps not Powerscourt.

[an capall]

Are Vinnie Roe and/or Grey Swallow going?

[SteveM]

Hope so. The shilly-shallying over this race is high even by usual standards.

[SteveM]

Apparently Grey Swallow is an intended runner but he has to be supplemented on Thursday.

Vinnie Roe has been left in but it is reported that he may wait for another crack at the Melbourne Cup.

Personally I believe they should go for the Arc, he has one of the top weights in the Cup.

[Ardross]

Unless its firm what does Quiff have to lose ?

[SteveM]

...only the Arc... and 60,000 euros.

[Ardross]

small change to Prince K Abdulla

[SteveM]

Maybe so. My gut feeling is that she will run, although I'm not so sure Stoute is pushing all that hard for it.

[Ardross]

Well if she were to beat North Light can't imagine Ballymacoll Stud would be all that happy

[SteveM]

Exactly so. North Light has been groomed for the race. A Derby-Arc double would look great on his CV, not to mention reversing Irish Derby form with Grey Swallow.

North Light has been prepared with this in mind and will be primed to give his all. He reminds me of Lammtarra in that he has all the stamina he needs for this. Although I don't believe he is quite as good as Lammtarra he should run a very big race.

With Quiff it will look more like an afterthought and if she beats them (which she could well do) it might make some others look a bit below par.

[Galileo]

I would doubt Ballydoyle will suppliment Tycoon, and Brian Boru is a non runner.

[Jamie]

Originally posted by SteveM@Sep 28 2004, 06:52 PM
Exactly so. North Light has been groomed for the race. A Derby-Arc double would look great on his CV, not to mention reversing Irish Derby form with Grey Swallow.

North Light has been prepared with this in mind and will be primed to give his all. He reminds me of Lammtarra in that he has all the stamina he needs for this. Although I don't believe he is quite as good as Lammtarra he should run a very big race.

With Quiff it will look more like an afterthought and if she beats them (which she could well do) it might make some others look a bit below par.
Well yes Steve your right.. But wouldn't it be better for Stoute to get the winner of the race? I mean don't get me wrong hes one of the big guns of the training scene. But I would think it would be better for him to have both horses running in the race. However I cant see Quiff running to be honest, like Steve said, North Light has been groomed for the race, where as Quiff probably hasn't. However of that I cannot be too sure. :unsure:

[SteveM]

Brian Boru goes for the Canadian International at Woodbine (October 24) and will bypass both the Arc and the Melbourne Cup.

So why Ballydoyle have left Acropolis in is anyone's guess. He is running out of horses to pacemake for.

[Melendez]

Excaliber was pulled out of a race at Listowel?

[Ardross]

He wasn't qualified for the race as he had already won a race valued at over 13000 euros

[Melendez]

I had thought Excalibur was going to have the same sort of season as Powerscourt has had, culminating in a brave unplaced effort in the Arc. Looks like APOB knew better.

[Irish Stamp]

Originally posted by Melendez@Sep 29 2004, 09:27 AM
I had thought Excalibur was going to have the same sort of season as Powerscourt has had, culminating in a brave unplaced effort in the Arc. Looks like APOB knew better.
I'm a bit gone so plz forgive my ignorance but washe the colti saw behinmd With Reason atHaydock?

[Galileo]

That was Troubadour.

[Irish Stamp]

Originally posted by Aidan@Sep 29 2004, 09:26 PM
That was Troubadour.
:shy: :shy: :shy: :shy: :shy: :shy: - i should know.
Do you know what he'd done to his side? It was cut or at best scarred (on the back end)?

[BrianH]

I think that André Fabre's colt Valirix will be difficult to keep out of the frame and that the Tote's 12/1 will not be bettered on the day.

And I'm off now on my Parisian pilgrimage.

[sunybay]

Brian
I think the form of the Niel can not be weaker
I dont see them in the first 5


I prefer many horses rather than the Fabre one.

[Ardross]

No Quiff or Mubtaker - she is not going to be supplemented and he is a non runner .

The reason given for Quiff is the ground - very odd does anyone really think it likely that the Arc course will not be heavily watered .

One has to wonder whether if Quiff were trained by Gosden or Charlton whether the decision would have been the same .

[SteveM]

A reasonable point to make.

She stays in training next season at least. Perhaps she hasn't lost her chance.

[Galileo]

he tackled a gate as a yearling Irish Stamp, and didnt come out the best of it!

[the golden drifter]

The trends say Valixir, so I'll take him and Prospect Park against the field.

[SteveM]

People have been talking down the Arc, but the 3-y-os are very well represented with the Derby winner, the Irish Derby winner, the Oaks winner and the first three in the French Derby all looking like they could run.

Of the older horses Execute, Mamool, Tap Dance City, Warrsan and Vallee Enchatee all have chances on their best form.

Ouija Board, Grey Swallow and North Light should take it between them though.

[sunybay]

Ouija and North Light have the best chance and then Grey Swallow and Mamool are the dangers.

[Ardross]

I would love to see Ouija Board win - she is the one potential real star left

If Mamool wins it should be downgraded to a Group2 !

[Garney]

Just because the winners of races restricted to 3yo races are turning up doesnt make it a good race. Only one 3yo was deemed good enough by its trainer to line up in the KG, 2 (Salford City, and the gelded African Dream) in the Eclipse. It is in these races that usually we get a marker of how good the 3yo crop is. While many can philosophical about the whole thing and suppose that we will get the years champion 3yo as a result of this race, it is likely becase the older generation arent up to much either. It is as poor an edition of the Arc that I can remember.

Tap Dance City might well win, but it only goes to show the lack of quality in Europe. I think godolphin had mamool down as about 5th or 6th choice (Doyen, Papineanu, Sulemani, Rule of Law) at the start of teh season, and lets face it, he only beat a listed winner at Kempton by a couple of lengths.

I'll take the hint of Grey Swallow running ahead of Vinnie Roe, but it doesnt stop it from being a humdrum edition,

[sunybay]

Ardross
Mamool is a 2 times gr1 winner, one of them,the GP Baden one of the best races in Europe every year.

[Ardross]

It was a poor renewal -nowhere near the quality of Marienbard's year . This year he has been beaten in a frnech group3 and beaten some group3 horses in England just - It will be a profoundly depressing result if he wins

[sunybay]

I think Mamool is rated 122 or 123 in timeform, he was beaten first time out in the year in soft ground and a distance too short, he is lightly raced for a horse of his age and improving to something to 126 or 127 can give him a chance.

In the German race I have seen in recent seasons winning Lavirco, Brogia,Pildsudsky,Lando or Marienbard.
Sometimes the Arc is won by horses like Carneige,Urban Sea,Sagamix or Marienbard.


I think Ouija is the best horse in the field and the most likely winner but in an open year , even the draw could have effect.

[Ardross]

His OR is 118

[Melendez]

I think the Irish Derby form is as good as any in the race. The lack of appearance of North Light since could be interpreted either way, but I'd see it as an advantage. Grey Swallow as the danger.

BTW did anyone see the article this week in the Racing Post. Somebody made a boo boo. Seeing that Grey Swallow wasn't entered in the race, he laid him at a couple of hundred to one to win and 16's to place, before copping on that the supplementary stage hadn't yet passed. A nervous few days for that person.

[SteveM]

He deserves all he gets (or has to pay out) in that case.

I just don't get how this year's race is somehow sub-standard. While we may not have a perceived superstar such as Montjeu or Dalakhani taking part, we haven't had such a concentration of Classic winners and Group 1 winners for years. English, Irish and French Derbies have never been so well represented and we also have the best Oaks winner for years, not forgetting the immensely talented Bago thrown in for nothing. I expect the winner will be a 3-y-o, but if an older horse manages to beat them it will have to be something very special.

[Garney]

Simply put Steve, the field of absentees would put the actual field to the sword, and while an argument can be made otherwise, to me it smacks of making a silk purse out of a sows ear.

The meeting of the oaks winner against the derby winners is always interesting but the fact that the French Derby winner is available at 40s says much of the classic generations calibre. Going through the form, the 3yo havent beaten much/anything outside of their own generation, (Norse Dancer has finished ahead of two of the more fancied animals) and the form of the older generation brings in all kinds of GP3 and listed animals. Those who think Mamool will win must obviously think that Alkaased would be there with a shout.

What price would Hard Buck or Gamut be in this field?

[Gareth Flynn]

the fact that the French Derby winner is available at 40s says much of the classic generations calibre.

No, it merely says much about the quality of this year's French Derby. The English and Irish Derby winners are the two favourites right now, after all.

[Garney]

of course you are right, just a little white lie to make a point!!

[Melendez]

The point could also be made that the field is so strong that even a French Derby winner is totally neglected in the betting.

[Garney]

Also a lie.

[Galileo]

Really do like Grey Swallow, think the Arc is made for him.

[SteveM]

I think the field is a very strong one, just lacking in a truly spectacular candidate such as Montjeu or Dalakhani. I agree with Aidan that Grey Swallow is a really good Arc type and I will be investing something on him. Ouija Board and North Light could pose significant threats and they aren't the only ones. A very strong field in depth. Doyen and Sulamani would have been far from automatic winners of this. The horse that does win this will be a much better than average Arc winner.

[Garney]

Agree to disagree, but as I said earlier I think Grey Swallow is the most likely winner.

[SteveM]

I also believe that.

[Galileo]

Really looking forward to the rest of the card, the clash of Layman and Oratorio should be very interesting, both look to be progressing fast while both also tie in alot of the form from during the year.

[SteveM]

We should also mention the maximum of 20 turn out in the Arc, making it ultra competitive.

Form Horse Trainer Age Wgt Jockey
1(17) 326-21 Execute
(FR) (CD) J E Hammond 7 9 5
D Boeuf
2(4) 0-5121 Policy Maker
(IRE) (CD) E Lellouche 4 9 5
T Thulliez
3(14) 110-31 Mamool
(IRE) (D) S bin Suroor(UK) 5 9 5
L Dettori
4(8) 531201 Warrsan
(IRE) (D) C Brittain(UK) 6 9 5
K McEvoy
5(15) 030362 Imperial Dancer
16 (D) M Channon(UK) 6 9 5
T E Durcan
6(18) 110-11 Tap Dance City
(USA) (D) S Sasaki(JPN) 7 9 5
T Sato
7(16) 11-435 Vallee Enchantee
(IRE) (CD) E Lellouche 4 9 2
S Pasquier
8(10) 413523 Pride
(FR) A R Dupre 4 9 2
T Jarnet
9(12) 21-112 North Light
(IRE) (D) (BF) Sir M Stoute(UK) 3 8 11
K Fallon
10(3) -34315 Blue Canari
(FR) (D) P Bary 3 8 11
C P Lemaire
11(1) 323211 Cherry Mix
(FR) (D) A Fabre 3 8 11
C Soumillon
12(20) -13311 Valixir
(IRE) (CD) A Fabre 3 8 11
E Legrix
13(19) 0163-1 Acropolis
(IRE) A P O'Brien(IRE) 3 8 11
J P Spencer
14(5) 1-1133 Bago
(FR) © (BF) J Pease 3 8 11
T Gillet
15(11) -14314 Grey Swallow
(IRE) (D) D Weld(IRE) 3 8 11
P J Smullen
16(7) 21313 Shirocco
(GER) (D) A Schutz(GER) 3 8 11
A Suborics
17(2) 112212 Prospect Park
21 (CD) C Laffon-Parias 3 8 11
O Peslier
18(6) 111016 Silverskaya
(USA) (D) J C Rouget 3 8 8
I Mendizabal
19(13) 11-110 Latice
(IRE) © (BF) J Beguigne 3 8 8
M Kinane
20(9) 13-111 Ouija Board
77 (D) E Dunlop(UK) 3 8 8
J P Murtagh

Betting Forecast:
9-2 North Light, 6-1 Grey Swallow, 7-1 Warrsan, 8-1 Valixir, Bago, 10-1 Mamool, 12-1 Tap Dance City, Shirocco, Prospect Park, Ouija Board, 14-1 others.

Last Year:
DALAKHANI(IRE) 3 8 11 C Soumillon 9-4 (A Royer Dupre De) drawn (14) 13 ran

[SteveM]

Tap Dance City has a fascinating pedigree. Northern Dancer, no less, is the dam sire (rare these days that he is so close up in a pedigree). Pleasant Tap is his sire (whose great grandsire was Ribot). Also 5x5 inbreeding to Nasrullah and Polynesian. TDC has already won something like £4.2m. Seems capable of running to useful looking ratings. Who knows what his chances are. Looks like being one of the fancied ones though.

[Venusian]

Yes, he does have rather an interesting pedigree, mixing the Ribot sire line with a lot of Phalaris elsewhere, plus a dash of old-time American.

Incidentally, he's inbred/linebred 5X5X6X6 to Nasrullah, thanks to Indian Hemp (best known for siring TV Lark) and temperamental sprinter Cockrullah. Not that these individuals have much influence on TDC's ability - in spite of the inbreeding I feel he's "really" got an outcross pedigree.

[archie]

Competitive and open as it is, I'd be surprised to see North Light out of the places. Other stats point to Valixir.

[Arkwright]

Can't have North Light,Grey Swallow beat him fair and square in Ireland and I would expect him to do so again.
Warsaan rates the danger.

[Ian R]

I've backed Warsaan @ 11/1 and Shirocco @ 14/1 due to the possibility of heavy rain there on sunday

[PDJ]

Warrsan is the stand out value. Ouija Board is my idea of the winner.

[SHIROCCO]

My horses for the Arc :

1. Ouija Board
2. Grey Swallow
3. North Light
4. Vallee Enchantee
5. Mamool
6. Latice

These are my bets for a tricast when the ground stays dry.
Good luck for all !!

[the golden drifter]

While I agree that there is no standout star going into the race in the mould of the supreme Dalakhani of last year, it is far too early to judge whether this year is indeed a poor edition.
If Ouija Board was to win we would all be acclaiming an amazing double Oaks and Arc winner, the same could be said about North Light who could become only the fourth post war Derby winner to win the Arc in his three year old season.

Personally, I think the French hold a strong hand this year. You won't go poor backing French 3yo's in the Arc and I'll be suprised if that trend isn't even more positive come Sunday evening. Fabre knows what it takes to train an Arc winner, unlike the majority of the field, and Valixir has a very similar profile to that of Carnegie.
However I wouldn't rule out Prospect Park overturning the Niel form with the aforementioned Valixir. Since the first week of June in Chantilly, Prospect Park has looked every inch an Arc horse. The strong pace that we should be guaranteed will suit Prospect Park too, and in Peslier he has a man who knows, and rides, Longchamp well and that will be important.

Of the rest Grey Swallow would worry me, I'm loathe to oppose Dermot Weld at any time especially when he has made the owners fork out to run him. There was alot to like about the prep race he ran at Leopardstown too. However the Irish don't really win Arcs do they.
Talking of horses that don't win Arcs, Epsom Derby winners usually don't and Sir Michael's horses don't either. With North Light being a below average Derby winner a line can be drawn through him straight away. Having said that his false favouritism ensures nice prices for the rest. I would be suprised if he beats Ouija Board home.

[Ardross]

Goodness Michael - so no Shirocco in the first six ?????

[SteveM]

Warrsan does indeed have a legitimate chance. He is what I see as a high level yardstick horse, one the winner will have to beat, but one that will not run past a certain high level. I can see him in the fisrt five with place chances but something would have to go wrong with a few of them for him to win.

Isn't Ouija board twice the price of Warrsan Paul. Why is she not your value bet, as she is also your idea of the winner.

[Galileo]

My choice would be Grey Swallow to win and big runs from Bago and Vallee Enchante.

[Ardross]

If there is heavy rain on Sunday - Stoute and Grimthorpe will be feeling a bit stupid . Fallon admitted in the Times today that he was relieved Quiff was not running

[SteveM]

Still can't make up my mind who's going to win, but do believe the 3-y-os will dominate. I've just backed Ouija Board at 14/1 and Grey Swallow at 6/1. I am much less confident than in recent years however.

1) Grey Swallow/Ouija Board

2) North Light

3) Bago

4) Tap Dance City

5) Warrsan

6) Execute

A change is the going could make a big difference though.

[Gareth Flynn]

RP Breaking News is reporting that Shirocco is a non-runner.

[SteveM]

Thanks Gareth. I don't think he would have had much bearing on the result though.

[SteveM]

Grey Swallow has replaced North Light as favourite for the race. Hills have cut him to 9/2 from 11/2.

[Maurice]

I can see Ouija Board going off favourite.

[bigeeps]

I like Ouija Board a lot but I am worried why Ladbrokes were more than happy to give me 14/1 when others were much shorter

[PDJ]

Ouija Board for me. Warrsan to be second.

[Galileo]

It looks very clear Grey Swallow will go off favourite. The more I look at her Vallee Enchante looks to have gotten a perfect French Arc build up. Very interesting.

[sunybay]

For me Ouija Board has the best form and has had a light campaign, the ground is ideal and is a very good price.
As main danger I see North Light and the other 2 to consider are Grey Swallow and Mamool.


It is a very poor edition and the lack of Doyen,sulamani,Shirocco and Mubtaker makes a poor field compared with recent years, also add the high number of runner which will make also necessary to have a little bit of luck in your side.

[The World Is Not Enough]

This year's Arc lacks an Arc winner.

Steve will know what I mean.

[bigeeps]

I know what you mean "twine", however I believe Ouija Board has a touch of class about her. She may take this in great style

[Maurice]

Ouija Board apart, this is the worst Arc I can remember for many years. Vallée Enchantée was unlucky not to beat Warrsan in the Coronation Cup and she carries a saver for me.

If OB had been trained in France people would be saying she had the perfect Arc preparation...

[SteveM]

The race is ultra competitive and the winner of the race will be a high class animal. It is ridiculous to call it a weak renewal. There is more strength in depth than for many years. While I agree there is not a perceived all-time great in the race before the event, you can never second guess what might come out of a race like this. There are no bad Arc winners and the winner of this will be a long way off the worst Arc winner you have seen.

They were saying Peintre Celebre's Arc looked weak and he put up the highest rated performance since Dancing Brave.

[SteveM]

Grey Swallow just 4s with Ladbrokes now.

[Derek.Burgess]

POLICY MAKER Won LTO is a CD Winner but a worry is the going. Draw ok.


VALIXIR Won LTO is a CD Winner but a worry is the going. Draw No.



POLICY MAKER for me,with an oustanding filly to go close.

[eric c]

Grey Swallow had a virus since his 9/11 run.
North Light has had problems also and is better on softer.
The French dont seem up to much and the Jap must still have travel stiffness.
I'm going for Ouija Board--all in her favour---fillies used to win this regularly in 70 's,Murtagh knows how to win an Arc and she has class and a turn of foot.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[Maurice]

It's all relative, Steve. Normally Arc winners get a rating of 130+. Ouija Board apart, there is nothing in this race sitting on better than 125. Sometimes that kind of fiugre won't get you into the first six in the race, yet it would win a 3yo an average Derby.

It is a competitive race this year becaue they're all much of a muchness, possibly apart form OB.

And I rated PC 137 at the time, if you remember back to the C4 forum ;)

[Shadow Leader]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if North Light came back lame; he was constantly changing legs throughout the race. Ouija Board should've won it too, IMO - not Murtagh's greatest moment!

[denisco_uk]

Unlucky ride for Murtagh, could have won the race if he had gotten out a furlong earlier than he did.

Ouija Board is an unbelievable filly.

[Galileo]

I hope OB run's doesn't take away from Bago's tremendous performance. Champion 2 year old and now an Arc winner.....not often that happens.

[Ardross]

Except last year with Dalakhani . Disagree about how far back they came from - she was a good four lengths behind him two out and she had to come wide for a run whilst he got a brilliant split - she made up three lengths at least in the final furlong .

[PDJ]

Bloody Murtagh.

[SteveM]

Very exciting Arc. As expected the 3-y-os dominated. This would have been the same had Doyen and/or Sulamani shown up. Bago showed the spark of brilliance he has been promising to and Ouija Board was equally brilliant. In fact she was bashed about all over the place early on and I didn’t think she had a prayer. However, Murtagh didn’t panic and brought her with an irresistible run, too late. Some may even consider she was the moral winner.

We should learn that horses with interrupted preparation just cannot win this, although I didn’t realise that the virus had laid Grey Swallow so flat recently. We and Weld were clearly asking too much of him. As eric pointed out.

On this ground the decision not to supplement Quiff was a good one.

North Light ran a cracker and would have been closer had the Japanese horse not worried him out of it. The going wouldn’t have helped either. Acropolis also ran a very fine race.

The Fabre horse stole the march on the others but the two to take away are undoubtedly Ouija Board and Bago, the two who looked like the real deal earlier in the season are.

Bago will undoubtedly finish up as top European 3-y-o colt and Ouija Board as top European filly. Both will have put up well above average Arc performances.

It would have been a big pay day for me if OB had won. We shouldn't want to take it away from Bago though.

[Maurice]

I thought Murtagh blew it. She was badly placed early and lost a bit more ground when she hit a flat spot for about half a furlong at halfway, just as she had at Epsom. She had got back to about two lengths behind Bago coming into the straight but whereas he got a clear split she had to wait and the gap opened up to nearer five lengths. For her to close it down again to a length and a half was pretty amazing.

Murtagh claimed she'd have won if it was an ordinary-sized field so he must have felt she's been at best unlucky (at worst badly ridden).

I have my doubts about the overall quality of the race and although Bago has at last shown some decent form, I doubt he will have gone much better than about 125.

Doyen or Sulamani at their best would have been three lengths ahead of him.

[SteveM]

She got into some rough stuff early on, but whether you can say that that was a consequence of a large field or bad jockeyship is debatable. She would have certainly gone very close to winning with a clearer passage. However, we should not wish to take it off Bago who has done it really well. I would certainly give Bago or Ouija Board good chances of turning over either Sulamani or Doyen if they met.

This race should not disappoint anyone. It is well up to Arc standard and I think you'll find the placed horses have run to better ratings than those placed in most years.

[Venusian]

I though Bago won on merit and I don't feel Ouija Board was an unlucky loser.

She might have finished little closer, nut I'm not sure she would have won.

Bago looks an average winner in an average year, no better no worse.

[PDJ]

That sums it up nicely, Venusian.

[SteveM]

I wouldn't be surprised if Bago is raised from his previous best of 123 (which would be modest for an Arc winner) by around 5lbs. Which at weight-for-age would have needed Sulamani or Doyen to have run to at least the best they have ever achieved to have won.

Likewise OB's previous best of 124 in the Oaks is likely to go up at least 2 or 3 lbs.

This will make the colt and filly top rated of their respective age and sex this season. This puts Bago a little above average for an Arc winner and OB well above average for a placed horse.

We must have seen a decent renewal of the Arc in which the top rated male and female 3-y-os are both placed.

[Shadow Leader]

Originally posted by SteveM@Oct 3 2004, 06:35 PM
North Light ran a cracker and would have been closer had the Japanese horse not worried him out of it. The going wouldn’t have helped either.
I'm not sure he would have finished closer - as you rightly say, he was not at home on the ground; he was changing legs constantly throughout the race & did not look comfortable at all. It would not suprise me in the slightest if he pulls out lame tomorrow.

[terry]

Was at a christening and didn't see the race. Sounds as if the filly ran a blinder.

I looked at Ouija Board but decided that the yard wasn't in great form. No winners in the last 14 days and not many exceeding expectations. So she ran an absolute blinder in the circumstances.

Will she come back next year?

[PDJ]

That was the impression given by connections after the race.

[Ardross]

PDJ - how can agreement with Venusian's analysis and " bloody Murtagh " sit together . I don't agree with Venusian I reckon that she would have won if she had had a better position or got out earlier but if you reckon she would not have won anyway does Johnny desrve " bloody Murtagh " ?

[PDJ]

I only meant that I agreed with his last statement, James.

[Ardross]

I get it now - could not see how you could be agreeing with all three

[sunybay]

I think Bago was a very lucky winner, he had a very good draw and a lucky travel finding the breaks in the right moment.

Ouija was a mixed between not having luck in running and Murtagh not knowing the fillie, he should have made more use of her earlier.


The second is a very good horse and has plenty of scope ,Godolphin will be the owner of him very likely and will be a great 4yo,especially in faster ground.



The edition was a poor one and the winner is in the level of Sagamix,Marienbard, Carneige or Urban Sea and horses like Sulamani,Mubtaker or Doyen would have won today for sure, especially the later that is in my book 4 lenghts better than the winner today.



About North Light, he had not the right preparation and ground and the way was ridden was against him.
He could be very interesting for next year.

[SteveM]

Dunlop said she would be back for another go next year terry. He said he hoped that the two in front had retired by then, but gave the strong impression that he thought she might of won this time and would win next time.

Suny at weight-for-age Bago +8 lbs and Ouija Board +11lbs, Doyen or Sulamani would need absolute ratings in the high 130s to do what you suggest. Neither have ever run to that. Running off level weights they might do what you say, but adjusted for the WFA scale it would be impossible.

[SHIROCCO]

For me the real surprise was "Cherry Mix and Acropolis".

Bago was a good winner for me , i have changed from Grey Swallow to Bago in
the last minute. SCHIROCCO was withdrawn Saturday evening, the ground
was to firm for him.

Next stop Breeder`s cup day.

[sunybay]

Steve
I rate Bago on yesterdays performance as no better than a 124,Doyen in the Ascot races is a minimum of 132 for me.

In recent seasons I rate better than Bago:
Dalakhani,Sakhee,Sinndar,Montjeu,Peintre Celebre,Helissio or Lammtarra.
In the same level of Marienbard and only better than Sagamix.

[SteveM]

I agree 124 would be well below average for an Arc winner, but that would represent just a 1lb improvement on his previous best. I'm sure his rating will be in the high 120s (possibly 130) on yesterday's performance.

His performance was of course inferior to those you mention. However, the 1990s saw an exceptional five-year period with horses well above average, starting with Lammtarra (1995), Helissio 1996, Peintre Celebre 1997, Montjeu 1999. These were impressively above average Arc winners albeit coming in a short period.

There is of course a big difference between real and relative performance. For the sake of argument let’s say that Ouija Board has an absolute (sometimes referred to as true) rating of 127 (which I do not believe is unreasonable).

An older male contestant would have to give her 11lbs on the weight-for-age/sex scale. Consequently an older male horse would have to run to better than 138 to be sure of beating her [in absolute terms].

[simmo]

So you would be an advocate of scrapping weight for age then Steve?

Personally I wouldn't quite agree with your argument. I see it as being the case that 2yo's receive weight from 3yo's (in the few races open to both) because they are less fully developed, and likewise for 3yo's when racing against 4yo's. Therefore, the "scratch" measure lies with the 4yo+ horses, and a measure of 127 against Ouija Board would be a relative measure.

Hence horses who subsequently turn out to simply be good quality handicappers can quite often win 2yo group races, and are actually over-rated in order to provide a comparative measure across the full age range before being downgraded as their true ability becomes apparent.

[SteveM]

No I wouldn't advocate scrapping weight for age at all. It is necessary for the racing of young against older horses to exist.

What I would do is ban 2-y-o racing full stop and run the Classics in their 4-y-o season (horses do not stop growing until they are four and immature/juvenile horses can be ruined before their bones have even hardened). But that's another story and the breeding industry would not allow what I suggest to come about.

A good older horse will invariably beat a good 3-y-o if racing off level weights, but we do not do this, so it is fanciful to suppose that Doyen or Sulamani would have easily won yesterday's race giving 8 and 11 lbs away to the 3-y-os.

Put simply the older horses yesterday were not good enough to do that (which is why I expected the 3-y-os to dominate yesterday's race). They would have to have run better than they have in their lives to match the 3-y-os at WFA.

Off level weights however the older horses could be expected to win at least nine times out of ten.

[simmo]

Interestingly. Using Vallee Enchantee (119) and Execute (117) as markers (avoiding the 3yo's), Bago would be on a mark of 128. If Doyen had turned up and (big and) had also run to a mark of 129 (which he had achieved twice against older horses (and one 3yo) he would have won by just over 1/2 a length. Sulamani, recreating his International Stakes form would have lost by 1 1/4l.

[jss]

Could'nt agree more with Steve about banning 2 year old racing.These horse are far to immature to be racing at that age,most of them anyway. 2 year olds are still babies afterall.A horse should start it's racing career as a 3 year old. The classic generation should also be for 4 year olds or maybe even 5 year olds or perhaps both.The racing would be far more competitive. And we truly would have the best horses winning the classic races.It would be far more exciting for everyone.
The majority of racehorses dont reach their peak until at least 4 or 5 years of age,so why not have all the greatest races (classics) open to them at that age. It makes far more sense.

[simmo]

Because then breeders would have to wait at least another year for a return on their investment.

[jss]

Your absolutely right.
But surely making racing more exciting and more competitive can only benefit the sport in the long run.Sadly it'll never happen anyway.

[Songsheet]

I'm all for it (and I'm a breeder). Would much prefer for Flat-breds to go into light work in the summer of their 2yo year and then progress to the racecourse at 3.

I'm not sure that in the long run, it wouldn't work out cheaper - or certainly no more expensive - as we would then be able to discard the rush to breed our foals as near to Jan 1st as we can, which costs more in vet and keep bills. If we all aimed at April 1st or later foals, we'd have less nutritionally related growth problems, sales companies could work out a better calendar instead of the mad rush between Sept - Dec and there would be less stress on producing young horses before they're ready and thus again, fewer vets bills and write-offs...

Gets my vote!

[SteveM]

I've been banging on about it for years. But apart from a little bit of exposure that the Post gave me on it (backed up by follow up from a couple of vets) the racing press is not really interested and Coolmore will kill anyone who suggests it. So it's been on the back-burner for some time.

[SteveM]

I also believe that Bago ran to about 128 simmo, but assuming that he did an older male horse would have had to run to better than 136 to beat him. Unless you have adjusted for WFA that is. But I know of no one who rates Doyen or Sulamani as 136+ animals.

[Galileo]

Em I think our Spanish friend might!

[SteveM]

:lol: I think even suny might be stretched to see Doyen in the high 130s. He is in fact just about 130, if that.

[simmo]

Originally posted by SteveM@Oct 4 2004, 01:39 PM
But I know of no one who rates Doyen or Sulamani as 136+ animals.
I was actually looking at the race from the point of view of ignoring WFA and sex allowances and finding out what mark Bago "actually" ran to. Using the two examples would lead you to a figure of 120 - adjusted for WFA and sex would take it up to 128. If something else had run to 129, the adjustment required in order to get Bago to the marks of 128 and 120 is changing the distance beaten to minus 0.5 - ie Doyen would win by 1/2 a length by running to 129.

[SteveM]

Okay I see what you mean. All I'd say to that is that 120 completely underates Bago's performance in my opinion as I'm sure will prove to be the case.

[simmo]

Lucky we have WFA to make young horses look good then!!!!!

[SteveM]

...a lot more would be breaking down if we didn't.

[sunybay]

the highest rating I go for Bago yesterday is 127.


Doyen in the King George is 133 or 134
in the Hardwicke 132
I see him with scope to go to 137 or something like that but he has not achieved it yet.


About Sulamani,at his best he would be 130
and Mubtaker 131

[SteveM]

Okay I can almost live with most of that. The 137 has yet to be achieved though and it's highly dubious that it will be.

So in other words ajusted for WFA you agree that Doyen and Sulamani wouldn't have won as unless they had run to around 136+, which neither have (as explained above).

[sunybay]

Steve
I dont know what are you talking about the wfa

All the ratings I am talking has the wfa in consideration and an older horse rated the same of a 3yo would the dead heat withe older giving him the weight allowance.


summing up
Doyen in 133
and Bago in 127

doyen would have beaten him by something like 3 lenghts giving him tha wfa allowance that was on sunday 5 pounds.

[Maurice]

For the sake of argument let’s say that Ouija Board has an absolute (sometimes referred to as true) rating of 127 (which I do not believe is unreasonable).

An older male contestant would have to give her 11lbs on the weight-for-age/sex scale. Consequently an older male horse would have to run to better than 138 to be sure of beating her. Such performances are rarely achieved in the history of thoroughbred racing and certainly have not been approached by Doyen or Sulamani.

Steve, I can't believe you committed these remarks to print :what:

None of the established ratings people that I know of would ever dream of taking such a line.

Let's for argument's sake say Bago hit 130 yesterday (124/125 is probably nearer accurate). For Doyen or Sulamani to win they would have had to run to 131, which both have done this year. That is what wfa is all about. If you accept that either Godolphin horse is 131, then, following your logic, the 3yos would be running to 123 and less just to get next to them since they would be in receipt of 8lbs.

When Peintre Celebre hit 137 as a 3yo, nobody suggested any of the beaten older horses had run to 135+ just because they were giving 8lbs away. When Montjeu (137-ish) nailed El Condor Pasa close home, nobody suggested the Japanese horse had hit 145 - the equal of Sea Bird - just because he was giving the 3yo weight.

[sunybay]

What Maurice has said is what I tried to explain,I dont speak of any rating without having in mind the wfa scale.

[simmo]

Originally posted by Maurice@Oct 4 2004, 05:36 PM
When Montjeu (137-ish) nailed El Condor Pasa close home, nobody suggested the Japanese horse had hit 145
Which is precisely why the older horse should be used as the "scratch" measure. I certainly believe it would be an erm, interesting exercise to look back over a couple of years racing downgrading 2yo and 3yo performances on the basis that they are over-rated because of wfa and examining the relationship between their performances at 2/3 and at 4+.

Not suggesting that the wfa scale is wrong here, I believe a study was done relatively recently which proves it wasn't, I'd just be interested to see how many horses actually progress as the scale suggests.

[SteveM]

I understand what you are saying Maurice. I am talking about two types of rating an absolute and an adjusted. I can see how what I've said can be taken the wrong way though.

Montjeu's adjusted rating for the Arc was indeed 137/138 and ECP around 134/135. Had the pair met at level weights (absolutes) though it is virtually certain ECP would have won. But the WFA scale is in place so Montjeu of course won, as he was entitled to do. It of course depends what weight you are adjusting to as to what the rating is.

The Post's adjusted ratings for the first three this year have come out at 129, 128 and 123 for the first three. In absolute terms these are nearer simmo's expectations than mine. I thought they would be a bit higher. This shows an about average winner, but a little above average for the placed horses, so a fairly decent race in other words.

In these terms Bago has run better than Marienbard and Sagamix and on a par with Sinndar, but not as well as Peintre Celebre, Montjeu or Dalakhani.

The ratings you see on Godolphin's website for example when using Timeform cards ahead of the big races look very high, with horses in the mid to high 130s. This is because the rating have not been adjusted to 9 stone which they are subsequently and is the rating commonly used to gauge performance.

[Maurice]

So if ECP, as the older horse, is the truer reflection of absolute merits, then the great Montjeu is really only a 126/127 horse. And we know he is a good half-stone better than Bago.

However, doing away with the wfa scale would indeed be detrimental to the sport. It would render it uncompetitive and ultimately boring.

The wfa scale itself is based on broad averages of development. Obviously some will progress more than others. I have often remarked that our top 2yos were only top because they were more developed at that age. Almost every year there is a very smart 2yo which fails to shine at three. Attraction's best from this season (last weekend) is still a copuple of pounds behind her weight-adjusted figures from her 2yo days.

And only personal embarrassment prevents me from mentioning a certain Royal Ascot 2yo winner from last season :shy:

[tdk]

Yes Maurice - sad to see the Triple Crown winner "elect" from last season shipped over to the USA today.. :lol:

[simmo]

Originally posted by Maurice@Oct 5 2004, 10:35 AM
Attraction's best from this season (last weekend) is still a couple of pounds behind her weight-adjusted figures from her 2yo days.
But in reality she has improved by 6lbs from her juvenile days (instead of the 8lbs dictated by the wfa scale)???

And that when Montjeu won his Arc he was actually a 129 horse but improved by 6lbs between 3 and 4. (I seem to remember 135 being the rating for his KG win).

Apologies if I've got the wfa scale wrong.

[SteveM]

This is getting a little befuddled, but yes ECP was at the time the truer reflection of absolute merit, on the bare performance of the race, in that year's Arc. And yes as a 3-y-o Montjeu was a good half-stone better than Bago. It doesn't matter which way you want to stretch the relatives as long as you compare like-with-like. It is simply another way of looking at it.

Simmo rightly says that Montjeu improved as a 4-y-o, as we would expect. He was a half stone better horse in absolute terms over and above the 3-y-o Montjeu, but virtually identical to his 3-y-o self in adjusted terms at around 137/138 for both seasons.

In other words there would have been very little between the 3-y-o Montjeu carrying 8-11 in 1999 and his 4-y-o self carrying 9-5 in 2000 (assuming he had been in his King George form rather than later season form).

I hope this makes sense. I think you and simmo see what I mean though.

As I explained to simmo earlier, I would also not be in favour at all of doing away with the WFA scale for much the same reasons as you have expressed.

[simmo]

I think it's a fantastic idea. How many breeders would be able to retire their horse at the end of it's 3yo career on the basis that it had "finished third in the Arc beaten 5 lengths but that would have equated to a rating of 137 under the old system"?

[Maurice]

The confusion arose, Steve, because you were suggesting that Doyen or Sulamani would have had to be 139s to have won Sunday's Arc when clearly they wouldn't.

[SteveM]

Obviously (or so I thought was obvious) not on an adjusted basis. What I intended, and I think I did say, was that in absolute terms Doyen or Sulamani would have to run to at least 11lbs better than OB to be sure of beating her. However 123 (on an adjusted basis) was lower than I imagined OB had run. Both would of beaten her at their best on this reckoning, but they would have struggled to beat Bago.

Simmo had it closest in that Sulamani would probably have got beaten and Doyen perhaps just (and only just) won, assuming both Doyen and Sulamani had run to their previous best.

Sometimes when typing things at speed on these forums you can leave yourself open to misinterpretation. I trust you are with me now?

[sunybay]

Steve
I dont know exactly in what you are thinking about or talking about mixing wfa and absolute ratings.....


Doyen at his best would have won easily the Arc last Sunday and would have beaten Ouija in a hack canter.




The ratings in the RP,timeform,Maurice scale and others are made considering the wfa and being Bago overrated for me in 129, a 130 would have beaten him or a mare or fillie in 127 would have done it also.

[SteveM]

I'm not mixing ratings suny. I'm talking about two types of rating and comparing like with like. This offers a perspective on what we mean by the various ratings being tossed about. If you like those unadjusted ratings that are published in a Timeform racecard well ahead of a race (the high ones) and those that are subsequently adjusted for that race.

On an ADJUSTED basis (and I hope I am being clear here) simmo's prediction turned out closest when he said Doyen would just have won but Sulamani just lost (assuming the pair had run to their previous best accredited ratings).

The Post have the best adjusted rating for the three at .

Doyen 129 and 131

Bago 129

Sulamani 128

In a race this is the order they would have finished if reproducing their best (AT THE WEIGHTS). Although as we know this rarely happens. In the real world the race might of gone to any of the three though and we cannot say that any of these three would have won easily.

As we know Sulamani beat Bago in a real race (which counts for more than theory). However, Bago has be adjudged to have to have stepped up 6lbs on that performance.

[Maurice]

Steve,

at weight-for-age Bago +8 lbs and Ouija Board +11lbs, Doyen or Sulamani would need absolute ratings in the high 130s to do what you suggest. Neither have ever run to that. Running off level weights they might do what you say, but adjusted for the WFA scale it would be impossible.

Can I just re-quote part of that?
Neither have ever run to that

They both have in the sense that discounting wfa Bago could never be rated any higher than 120/121, while Ouija Board's absolute (your definition) rating for her best previous run (the Oaks) was 116.

For the RP etc to rate Bago 128/129, that is equivalent to absolute ratings of 8lbs less.

What I intended, and I think I did say, was that in absolute terms Doyen or Sulamani would have to run to at least 11lbs better than OB to be sure of beating her

Indeed they would. On her absolute performance on the day, they'd have given her weight for age and sex - and a beating - just as they would have done to Bago or Cherry Mix.

[SteveM]

Not quite sure what you want me to say... I don't think I have any more to say. I thought immediately after the race that Bago and OB ran better than it appears they have, but I can live with the Post's verdict.

Simmo looks to have called it right. And perhaps both you and suny can now see it is far from certain that either Doyen or Sulamani would have won, although it is possible that either might (but certainly not by four lengths, or whatever you were suggesting, unless of course your ratings for them are proportionally that much higher).

This was by the way the second fastest Arc of all time, so it couldn't have been all that bad I suppose.

[Maurice]

While I still have to arrive at my ratings for the race, my gut feeling is that Bago has run to about 124/125 (116/117 in absolute terms). This was the figure upon which I based the comparison with Doyen and Sulamani. Both are around the 130 mark. 4 lengths at 12f works out at about 6lbs.

Obviously if I end up rating Bago closer to the 130 mark it will impact upon the beating he might have received from the others.